Ipswich v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 15
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 13
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.06 – +0.77
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
20.9%
Draw
19.3%
Newcastle United win
59.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.33–2.33 | 1-2 9% | 71% | 66% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 1.06 xGNewcastle United 3.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 9' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 10' |
 Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 14' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 15' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 19' |
Ipswich |
Jens Cajuste | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Conor Chaplin |
| 19' |
Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 23' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 31' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Anthony Gordon |
| 41' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 45' |
Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Cajuste |
| 46' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bruno Guimarães |
| 48' |
Ipswich |
Ali Al-Hamadi | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Conor Chaplin |
| 49' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 50' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Lewis Hall |
| 53' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jacob Murphy |
| 55' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 62' |
Ipswich |
Wes Burns | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sammie Szmodics |
| 62' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 67' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 71' |
Ipswich |
Ali Al-Hamadi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 77' |
Ipswich |
Nathan Broadhead | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ali Al-Hamadi |
| 81' |
Ipswich |
Ali Al-Hamadi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Broadhead |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.98 | 0.21 | 1.43 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.79 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.10 | 0.77 | 0.47 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 78 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.75 | 0.44 | 2.52 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 69 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.21 | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Joe Willock MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Valentino Livramento DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kieran Trippier Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel Almirón Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.28 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| Harry Clarke DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sammie Szmodics AML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.04 | 0.52 |
| Wes Burns AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jens Cajuste DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Conor Chaplin FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ali Al-Hamadi Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kalvin Phillips Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Broadhead Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Ben Johnson Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |