Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 23 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 17
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
3 – 15
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.46
Goals − xG
+0.14 – -1.76
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyIpswich win
26.7%
model 25.5%
Draw
22.2%
model 23.3%
Nottingham Forest win
51.1%
model 51.3%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.8%
- 1-2 9.7%
- 0-1 9.1%
- 0-2 8.1%
- 2-1 6.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 57.2% | Under 2.5 | 42.8% |
| BTTS yes | 58.0% | BTTS no | 42.0% |
| Ipswich 1+ | 69.6% | Ipswich 2+ | 33.4% |
| Nottingham Forest 1+ | 83.2% | Nottingham Forest 2+ | 53.3% |
Expected goals 1.19 – 1.79. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
99/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Nottingham Forest (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 32%
52.1% fair odds 1.92
strong signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Nottingham Forest carry the stronger rating, 1559 Elo against 1364.
- Nottingham Forest have created 1.84 xG a match over their last five while Ipswich have allowed 1.92.
- Away from home Nottingham Forest average 2.72 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Nottingham Forest have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for Ipswich and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Ipswich and 1.78 for Nottingham Forest.
Why Ipswich
Ipswich have created 1.27 xG a match over their last five while Nottingham Forest have allowed 1.55. At home Ipswich average 1.01 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Nottingham Forest were missing 1.21 expected goal involvements a match against 0.81.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Nottingham Forest can win
Nottingham Forest carry the stronger rating, 1559 Elo against 1364. Nottingham Forest have created 1.84 xG a match over their last five while Ipswich have allowed 1.92. Away from home Nottingham Forest average 2.72 xG a match.
Key players
Ipswich's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Emersonn (0.38), Liam Delap (0.34), Julio Enciso (0.28). Nottingham Forest's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Morgan Gibbs-White (0.47), Liam Delap (0.42), Igor Jesus (0.32).
Availability
1 of Ipswich's top three contributors did not start their last match. 55% of Ipswich's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Nottingham Forest's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Nottingham Forest's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Ipswich: 45% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces. Nottingham Forest: 47% possession, 19.2 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Nottingham Forest are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich have scored 13 from 12.9 expected and conceded 21 from 20.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWLLWLWLD last 10
scored 13
from 12.9 xG
conceded 21
from 20.6 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing sharply below their chances — 10.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLDDWLLLD last 10
scored 9
from 19.7 xG
conceded 14
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.19–1.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-goals | 1.43–1.99 | 1-1 10% | 66% | 67% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.29–1.86 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 61% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.28–1.81 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 60% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to win | 45.2% | 47.3% | 32.3% | 1.46× | 2.11 |
| Ipswich to win | 32.1% | 30.4% | 43.0% | 0.71× | 3.29 |
| Draw | 22.7% | 24.4% | 24.8% | 0.99× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest & both teams score | 26.6% | 25.2% | 15.3% | 1.64× | 3.97 |
| Ipswich & both teams score | 19.5% | 18.0% | 22.9% | 0.78× | 5.56 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.1% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.57 |
| Nottingham Forest & not both score | 18.6% | 18.0% | 17.1% | 1.05× | 5.57 |
| Ipswich & not both score | 12.7% | 13.3% | 20.1% | 0.66× | 7.54 |
| Draw & not both score | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 0.98× | 20.59 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest & over 1.5 | 38.6% | 34.9% | 25.3% | 1.38× | 2.87 |
| Nottingham Forest & over 2.5 | 32.7% | 30.8% | 19.8% | 1.55× | 3.25 |
| Ipswich & over 1.5 | 26.7% | 26.1% | 36.6% | 0.71× | 3.84 |
| Nottingham Forest & under 3.5 | 25.1% | 26.1% | 21.9% | 1.19× | 3.84 |
| Ipswich & over 2.5 | 22.6% | 21.6% | 30.3% | 0.71× | 4.63 |
| Nottingham Forest & over 3.5 | 20.1% | 21.6% | 10.6% | 2.05× | 4.63 |
| Ipswich & under 3.5 | 19.0% | 18.0% | 26.6% | 0.68× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 13.5% | 12.8% | 16.3% | 0.79× | 7.79 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 13.5% | 12.8% | 16.3% | 0.79× | 7.79 |
| Nottingham Forest & under 2.5 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 1.02× | 7.79 |
| Ipswich & over 3.5 | 13.1% | 12.8% | 16.5% | 0.78× | 7.79 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 0.92× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 0.92× | 12.63 |
| Ipswich & under 2.5 | 9.5% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 0.62× | 12.63 |
| Nottingham Forest & under 1.5 | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 1.12× | 12.63 |
| Ipswich & under 1.5 | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 1.23× | 12.63 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 0.97× | 20.82 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (1UP) | 63.3% | 62.9% | 51.5% | 1.22× | 1.59 |
| Ipswich (1UP) | 52.4% | 52.6% | 62.0% | 0.85× | 1.90 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (2UP) | 45.2% | 49.9% | 34.5% | 1.45× | 2.00 |
| Ipswich (2UP) | 32.1% | 30.5% | 44.7% | 0.68× | 3.28 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to win 2nd half | 41.4% | 41.8% | 32.8% | 1.28× | 2.39 |
| 2nd half drawn | 31.6% | 34.3% | 31.1% | 1.10× | 2.92 |
| Ipswich to win 2nd half | 27.0% | 25.7% | 36.2% | 0.71× | 3.89 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest under 1.5 in 2nd half | 70.9% | 75.1% | 79.9% | 0.94× | 1.33 |
| Nottingham Forest over 0.5 in 2nd half | 65.8% | 70.0% | 57.8% | 1.21× | 1.43 |
| Nottingham Forest under 0.5 in 2nd half | 34.2% | 30.0% | 42.2% | 0.71× | 3.33 |
| Nottingham Forest over 1.5 in 2nd half | 29.2% | 24.9% | 20.1% | 1.24× | 4.02 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich under 1.5 in 2nd half | 80.7% | 82.4% | 75.2% | 1.10× | 1.21 |
| Ipswich over 0.5 in 2nd half | 55.3% | 57.9% | 58.3% | 0.99× | 1.73 |
| Ipswich under 0.5 in 2nd half | 44.7% | 42.1% | 41.7% | 1.01× | 2.37 |
| Ipswich over 1.5 in 2nd half | 19.3% | 17.6% | 24.8% | 0.71× | 5.67 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (+2.5) | 94.3% | 92.1% | 89.1% | 1.03× | 1.09 |
| Nottingham Forest (+1.5) | 85.0% | 88.4% | 76.0% | 1.16× | 1.13 |
| Nottingham Forest (+0.5) | 67.9% | 68.7% | 57.0% | 1.20× | 1.46 |
| Ipswich (+0.5) | 54.8% | 52.4% | 67.7% | 0.77× | 1.91 |
| Nottingham Forest (-0.5) | 45.2% | 47.6% | 32.3% | 1.47× | 2.10 |
| Ipswich (-0.5) | 32.1% | 31.3% | 43.0% | 0.73× | 3.19 |
| Ipswich (-1.5) | 15.0% | 11.6% | 24.0% | 0.48× | 8.65 |
| Ipswich (-2.5) | 5.7% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 0.72× | 12.70 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to concede | 77.8% | 78.8% | 78.1% | 1.01× | 1.27 |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 22.2% | 21.2% | 21.9% | 0.97× | 4.71 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to concede in 1st half | 50.2% | 50.5% | 51.2% | 0.99× | 1.98 |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet in 1st half | 49.8% | 49.5% | 48.8% | 1.01× | 2.02 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to concede in 2nd half | 55.3% | 57.3% | 58.3% | 0.98× | 1.75 |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet in 2nd half | 44.7% | 42.7% | 41.7% | 1.03× | 2.34 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest under 6.5 corners | 81.6% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Nottingham Forest over 2.5 corners | 74.9% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Nottingham Forest under 5.5 corners | 71.3% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Nottingham Forest over 3.5 corners | 58.5% | 57.2% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Nottingham Forest under 4.5 corners | 57.6% | 57.2% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Nottingham Forest over 4.5 corners | 42.4% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Nottingham Forest under 3.5 corners | 41.5% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Nottingham Forest over 5.5 corners | 28.7% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Nottingham Forest under 2.5 corners | 25.1% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Nottingham Forest over 6.5 corners | 18.4% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.38 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest under 3.5 goals | 88.9% | 87.8% | 94.6% | 0.93× | 1.14 |
| Nottingham Forest over 0.5 goals | 83.7% | 81.5% | 75.0% | 1.09× | 1.23 |
| Nottingham Forest under 2.5 goals | 72.6% | 71.9% | 85.1% | 0.85× | 1.39 |
| Nottingham Forest over 1.5 goals | 54.2% | 53.6% | 39.4% | 1.36× | 1.87 |
| Nottingham Forest under 1.5 goals | 45.8% | 46.4% | 60.6% | 0.77× | 2.15 |
| Nottingham Forest over 2.5 goals | 27.4% | 28.1% | 14.9% | 1.88× | 3.56 |
| Nottingham Forest under 0.5 goals | 16.3% | 18.5% | 25.0% | 0.74× | 5.40 |
| Nottingham Forest over 3.5 goals | 11.1% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2.27× | 8.21 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest under 1.5 in 1st half | 83.0% | 83.0% | 89.3% | 0.93× | 1.21 |
| Nottingham Forest over 0.5 in 1st half | 52.4% | 55.5% | 40.3% | 1.38× | 1.80 |
| Nottingham Forest under 0.5 in 1st half | 47.6% | 44.5% | 59.7% | 0.75× | 2.25 |
| Nottingham Forest over 1.5 in 1st half | 17.0% | 17.0% | 10.7% | 1.59× | 5.88 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest scores more in 2nd half | 43.0% | 43.4% | 40.8% | 1.06× | 2.30 |
| Nottingham Forest scores equally in both | 32.1% | 33.6% | 37.5% | 0.90× | 2.97 |
| Nottingham Forest scores more in 1st half | 25.0% | 22.0% | 21.7% | 1.02× | 4.54 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich (away no bet) | 58.6% | 57.4% | 63.5% | 0.90× | 1.74 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 41.4% | 42.6% | 36.5% | 1.17× | 2.35 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest even goals | 51.3% | 52.6% | 53.5% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Nottingham Forest odd goals | 48.7% | 47.4% | 46.5% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 76.4% | 81.3% | 80.0% | 1.02× | 1.23 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 18.7% | 20.0% | 0.94× | 5.34 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 74.6% | 67.5% | 70.1% | 0.96× | 1.48 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 32.5% | 29.9% | 1.09× | 3.08 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 65.8% | 62.3% | 61.6% | 1.01× | 1.61 |
| Nottingham Forest to score 2+ in a row | 43.4% | 38.8% | 29.7% | 1.31× | 2.58 |
| Ipswich to score 2+ in a row | 32.9% | 29.2% | 39.2% | 0.75× | 3.42 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 26.6% | 25.2% | 26.1% | 0.97× | 3.97 |
| Nottingham Forest to score 3+ in a row | 16.8% | 16.2% | 10.1% | 1.61× | 6.16 |
| Ipswich to score 3+ in a row | 10.3% | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.73× | 8.34 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich corners (+3.5) | 85.8% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Nottingham Forest corners (+3.5) | 82.0% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Ipswich corners (+2.5) | 78.7% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Nottingham Forest corners (+2.5) | 73.9% | 70.8% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Ipswich corners (+1.5) | 69.5% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Nottingham Forest corners (+1.5) | 63.9% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Ipswich corners (-1.5) | 36.1% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Nottingham Forest corners (-1.5) | 30.5% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Ipswich corners (-2.5) | 26.1% | 29.2% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Nottingham Forest corners (-2.5) | 21.3% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Ipswich corners (-3.5) | 18.0% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Nottingham Forest corners (-3.5) | 14.2% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.44 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 48.5% | 41.8% | — | — | 2.39 |
| 9-11 corners | 28.6% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
| 12+ corners | 22.9% | 25.7% | — | — | 3.90 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 83.7% | 80.7% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.1% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 68.9% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 62.7% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 59.3% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 51.5% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 48.5% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40.7% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 37.3% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 31.1% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 22.9% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 16.3% | 19.3% | — | — | 5.18 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.9% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 0.65× | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 1.08× | 13.50 |
| 0-1 | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 1.04× | 13.51 |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 0.83× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 0.97× | 13.51 |
| 0-2 | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 1.32× | 13.51 |
| 1-0 | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.15× | 13.51 |
| 1-3 | 5.4% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 2.36× | 13.51 |
| Any other score | 5.5% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.69× | 13.51 |
| 0-0 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.35× | 58.30 |
| 0-3 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.67× | 58.30 |
| 0-4 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.60× | 58.31 |
| 1-4 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.22× | 58.31 |
| 2-0 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 6.4% | 0.27× | 58.30 |
| 2-3 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.69× | 58.30 |
| 2-4 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.60× | 58.31 |
| 3-0 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.34× | 58.31 |
| 3-1 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 5.4% | 0.32× | 58.30 |
| 3-2 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.56× | 58.30 |
| 3-3 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.31× | 58.31 |
| 3-4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.46× | 58.31 |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.30× | 58.31 |
| 4-1 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.31 |
| 4-2 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.30× | 58.31 |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.89× | 58.31 |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.20× | 58.32 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (2nd half DNB) | 60.5% | 62.3% | 47.5% | 1.31× | 1.60 |
| Ipswich (2nd half DNB) | 39.5% | 37.7% | 52.5% | 0.72× | 2.66 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest leading at HT (DNB) | 52.1% | 54.8% | 40.2% | 1.36× | 1.82 |
| Ipswich leading at HT (DNB) | 47.9% | 45.2% | 59.8% | 0.76× | 2.21 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich or Nottingham Forest (12) | 77.3% | 75.6% | 75.2% | 1.00× | 1.32 |
| Nottingham Forest or draw (X2) | 67.9% | 69.6% | 57.0% | 1.22× | 1.44 |
| Ipswich or draw (1X) | 54.8% | 52.7% | 67.7% | 0.78× | 1.90 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest or draw at HT | 70.2% | 75.0% | 63.9% | 1.17× | 1.33 |
| Ipswich or draw at HT | 67.5% | 66.7% | 75.7% | 0.88× | 1.50 |
| Ipswich or Nottingham Forest at HT | 62.3% | 61.6% | 60.2% | 1.02× | 1.62 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest or draw (1UP) | 67.9% | 76.3% | 65.3% | 1.17× | 1.31 |
| Ipswich or draw (1UP) | 54.8% | 58.9% | 74.3% | 0.79× | 1.70 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest or draw in 2nd half | 73.0% | 74.3% | 63.8% | 1.16× | 1.35 |
| Ipswich or Nottingham Forest in 2nd half | 68.4% | 65.7% | 68.9% | 0.95× | 1.52 |
| Ipswich or draw in 2nd half | 58.6% | 58.2% | 67.2% | 0.87× | 1.72 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 57.4% | 58.4% | 57.1% | 1.02× | 1.71 |
| Neither half drawn | 42.6% | 41.6% | 42.9% | 0.97× | 2.41 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (DNB) | 58.5% | 58.1% | 42.9% | 1.35× | 1.72 |
| Ipswich (DNB) | 41.5% | 41.9% | 57.1% | 0.73× | 2.39 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to score first | 52.7% | 53.4% | 43.3% | 1.23× | 1.87 |
| Ipswich to score first | 43.7% | 41.7% | 51.8% | 0.81× | 2.40 |
| No goal scored | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 0.87× | 23.35 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 58.4% | 58.0% | 1.01× | 1.71 |
| Not both teams to score | 34.9% | 41.6% | 42.0% | 0.99× | 2.40 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 55.2% | 47.5% | 46.7% | 1.02× | 2.10 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 25.7% | 33.3% | 30.2% | 1.10× | 3.00 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 9.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 0.73× | 12.05 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.2% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 0.70× | 12.06 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 76.0% | 79.6% | 82.1% | 0.97× | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 24.0% | 20.4% | 17.9% | 1.14× | 4.91 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 63.6% | 65.8% | 68.6% | 0.96× | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 36.4% | 34.2% | 31.4% | 1.09× | 2.92 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 46.8% | 52.9% | 55.9% | 0.95× | 1.89 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 26.9% | 27.4% | 24.7% | 1.11× | 3.65 |
| Both score 1st half only | 16.7% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 1.17× | 6.67 |
| Both score in both halves | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 1.00× | 14.58 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 73.7% | 79.7% | 80.4% | 0.99× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 26.3% | 20.3% | 19.6% | 1.04× | 4.94 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 64.6% | 59.9% | 61.6% | 0.97× | 1.67 |
| A half without a goal | 35.4% | 40.1% | 38.4% | 1.04× | 2.49 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 42.0% | 42.1% | 46.3% | 0.91× | 2.37 |
| 4-6 goals | 37.2% | 35.1% | 32.8% | 1.07× | 2.85 |
| 0-1 goals | 15.6% | 20.2% | 18.3% | 1.10× | 4.95 |
| 7+ goals | 5.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 2.70× | 13.18 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to score exactly 1 | 29.5% | 27.4% | 35.7% | 0.77× | 3.65 |
| Nottingham Forest to score 3+ | 27.4% | 27.4% | 14.9% | 1.83× | 3.65 |
| Nottingham Forest to score exactly 2 | 26.8% | 27.4% | 24.5% | 1.12× | 3.66 |
| Nottingham Forest to score exactly 0 | 16.3% | 19.6% | 25.0% | 0.78× | 5.11 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich to score exactly 1 | 33.4% | 32.6% | 29.2% | 1.11× | 3.07 |
| Ipswich to score exactly 2 | 25.1% | 26.5% | 26.1% | 1.02× | 3.77 |
| Ipswich to score exactly 0 | 22.2% | 23.3% | 21.9% | 1.06× | 4.29 |
| Ipswich to score 3+ | 19.2% | 18.8% | 22.9% | 0.82× | 5.33 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 37.7% | 38.4% | 39.8% | 0.97× | 2.60 |
| Nottingham Forest leading at HT | 32.5% | 33.3% | 24.3% | 1.37× | 3.00 |
| Ipswich leading at HT | 29.9% | 25.0% | 36.1% | 0.69× | 4.00 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest -1: 1 | 54.8% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Nottingham Forest -1: 2 | 24.5% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
| Nottingham Forest -1: X | 20.7% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (0:1) | 67.9% | 65.2% | 57.0% | 1.14× | 1.53 |
| Draw (0:1) | 17.1% | 17.8% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.61 |
| Ipswich (0:1) | 15.0% | 13.7% | 24.0% | 0.57× | 7.27 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (0:2) | 85.0% | 87.0% | 76.0% | 1.15× | 1.15 |
| Draw (0:2) | 9.3% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 0.58× | 13.02 |
| Ipswich (0:2) | 5.7% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 0.70× | 13.06 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (0:3) | 94.3% | 92.7% | 89.1% | 1.04× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 3.9% | 2.4% | 7.6% | 0.31× | 42.02 |
| Ipswich (0:3) | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 0.70× | 42.12 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (0:4) | 98.2% | 98.1% | 96.6% | 1.02× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.59× | 81.96 |
| Ipswich (0:4) | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.87× | 82.05 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich (1:0) | 54.8% | 54.1% | 67.7% | 0.80× | 1.85 |
| Nottingham Forest (1:0) | 24.5% | 21.7% | 15.7% | 1.39× | 4.61 |
| Draw (1:0) | 20.7% | 21.7% | 16.7% | 1.29× | 4.61 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich (2:0) | 75.5% | 80.4% | 84.3% | 0.95× | 1.24 |
| Draw (2:0) | 13.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 1.11× | 9.71 |
| Nottingham Forest (2:0) | 10.9% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 1.58× | 9.73 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 48.0% | 48.8% | 49.6% | 0.98× | 2.05 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 29.6% | 26.3% | 25.8% | 1.02× | 3.81 |
| Halves equal | 22.4% | 24.3% | 24.7% | 0.99× | 4.11 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich to concede | 83.7% | 80.9% | 75.0% | 1.08× | 1.24 |
| Ipswich clean sheet | 16.3% | 19.1% | 25.0% | 0.76× | 5.24 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich to concede in 1st half | 52.4% | 55.5% | 40.3% | 1.38× | 1.80 |
| Ipswich clean sheet in 1st half | 47.6% | 44.5% | 59.7% | 0.75× | 2.25 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich to concede in 2nd half | 65.8% | 67.0% | 57.8% | 1.16× | 1.49 |
| Ipswich clean sheet in 2nd half | 34.2% | 33.0% | 42.2% | 0.78× | 3.03 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich under 6.5 corners | 78.2% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Ipswich over 2.5 corners | 78.0% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Ipswich under 5.5 corners | 67.2% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Ipswich over 3.5 corners | 62.5% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Ipswich under 4.5 corners | 53.3% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Ipswich over 4.5 corners | 46.7% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Ipswich under 3.5 corners | 37.5% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Ipswich over 5.5 corners | 32.8% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Ipswich under 2.5 corners | 22.0% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Ipswich over 6.5 corners | 21.8% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich under 3.5 goals | 93.4% | 92.2% | 91.5% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Ipswich under 2.5 goals | 80.8% | 82.2% | 77.1% | 1.07× | 1.22 |
| Ipswich over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | 77.7% | 78.1% | 1.00× | 1.29 |
| Ipswich under 1.5 goals | 55.7% | 58.6% | 51.1% | 1.15× | 1.71 |
| Ipswich over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 41.4% | 48.9% | 0.85× | 2.41 |
| Ipswich under 0.5 goals | 22.2% | 22.3% | 21.9% | 1.01× | 4.49 |
| Ipswich over 2.5 goals | 19.2% | 17.8% | 22.9% | 0.78× | 5.62 |
| Ipswich over 3.5 goals | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 0.91× | 12.89 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich under 1.5 in 1st half | 84.5% | 83.8% | 84.4% | 0.99× | 1.19 |
| Ipswich over 0.5 in 1st half | 50.2% | 50.3% | 51.2% | 0.98× | 1.99 |
| Ipswich under 0.5 in 1st half | 49.8% | 49.7% | 48.8% | 1.02× | 2.01 |
| Ipswich over 1.5 in 1st half | 15.5% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 1.04× | 6.19 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich scores equally in both | 36.6% | 37.9% | 37.7% | 1.00× | 2.64 |
| Ipswich scores more in 2nd half | 34.9% | 33.0% | 36.1% | 0.92× | 3.03 |
| Ipswich scores more in 1st half | 28.5% | 27.8% | 26.3% | 1.06× | 3.59 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest (home no bet) | 66.6% | 64.2% | 56.6% | 1.13× | 1.56 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 33.4% | 35.8% | 43.4% | 0.83× | 2.79 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich even goals | 52.5% | 50.7% | 54.0% | 0.94× | 1.97 |
| Ipswich odd goals | 47.5% | 49.3% | 46.0% | 1.07× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 23.7% | 24.4% | 28.1% | 0.87× | 4.09 |
| HT 0-1 | 17.6% | 18.6% | 14.8% | 1.26× | 5.38 |
| HT 1-0 | 16.5% | 18.6% | 21.5% | 0.86× | 5.39 |
| HT 1-1 | 12.3% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 1.02× | 9.08 |
| Any other HT score | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 1.27× | 14.49 |
| HT 0-2 | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.58× | 14.50 |
| HT 2-0 | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 0.86× | 14.51 |
| HT 1-2 | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 0.82× | 41.98 |
| HT 2-1 | 4.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 0.64× | 42.00 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 2.39× | 42.18 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest at HT / Nottingham Forest at FT | 25.7% | 27.1% | 16.7% | 1.62× | 3.69 |
| Ipswich at HT / Ipswich at FT | 19.9% | 16.8% | 26.4% | 0.63× | 5.97 |
| Draw at HT / Nottingham Forest at FT | 15.6% | 16.7% | 12.3% | 1.36× | 5.99 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 11.9% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 0.92× | 7.91 |
| Draw at HT / Ipswich at FT | 10.2% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 0.91× | 7.92 |
| Ipswich at HT / Draw at FT | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 0.95× | 16.66 |
| Nottingham Forest at HT / Draw at FT | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 0.73× | 28.59 |
| Ipswich at HT / Nottingham Forest at FT | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.01× | 28.62 |
| Nottingham Forest at HT / Ipswich at FT | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.21× | 28.69 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to score last | 52.7% | 52.2% | 45.1% | 1.16× | 1.92 |
| Ipswich to score last | 43.7% | 40.1% | 50.1% | 0.80× | 2.50 |
| No goal scored | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 0.87× | 23.35 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 96.4% | 95.7% | 95.1% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Nottingham Forest to lead by 1 at any time | 63.3% | 61.4% | 51.5% | 1.19× | 1.63 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 54.8% | 50.9% | 50.6% | 1.01× | 1.96 |
| Ipswich to lead by 1 at any time | 52.4% | 50.9% | 62.0% | 0.82× | 1.97 |
| Nottingham Forest to lead by 2 at any time | 32.8% | 29.9% | 21.0% | 1.42× | 3.35 |
| Ipswich to lead by 2 at any time | 22.5% | 19.7% | 29.9% | 0.66× | 5.09 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 21.9% | 19.6% | 21.2% | 0.93× | 5.09 |
| Nottingham Forest to lead by 3 at any time | 14.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 1.30× | 9.53 |
| Ipswich to lead by 3 at any time | 7.9% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 0.51× | 14.88 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich most corners | 47.3% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Nottingham Forest most corners | 41.2% | 43.5% | — | — | 2.30 |
| Corners level | 11.5% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 84.4% | 83.4% | 88.4% | 0.94× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 79.2% | 78.7% | 79.0% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 72.3% | 72.4% | 77.9% | 0.93× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.4% | 72.4% | 75.1% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.3% | 63.3% | 64.5% | 0.98× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 59.2% | 59.1% | 55.8% | 1.06× | 1.69 |
| 1-3 goals | 54.0% | 53.2% | 59.7% | 0.89× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 52.5% | 53.2% | 51.9% | 1.02× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 42.0% | 43.6% | 46.3% | 0.94× | 2.30 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.4% | 43.6% | 41.3% | 1.05× | 2.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 37.2% | 39.2% | 32.8% | 1.20× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 31.9% | 35.2% | 36.6% | 0.96× | 2.84 |
| 4-5 goals | 30.5% | 35.2% | 28.9% | 1.22× | 2.84 |
| 5-6 goals | 18.9% | 18.8% | 14.5% | 1.30× | 5.31 |
| 7+ goals | 5.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.16× | 11.28 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest never behind | 44.0% | 48.6% | 38.0% | 1.28× | 2.06 |
| Ipswich never behind | 33.1% | 36.3% | 48.5% | 0.75× | 2.76 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.9% | 49.2% | 1.04× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.1% | 50.8% | 0.97× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 52.8% | 51.6% | 53.5% | 0.97× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 47.2% | 48.4% | 46.5% | 1.04× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.2% | 51.9% | 51.9% | 1.00× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.8% | 48.1% | 48.1% | 1.00× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96.4% | 95.4% | 95.1% | 1.00× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 88.1% | 87.6% | 93.3% | 0.94× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 82.3% | 81.7% | 1.01× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 75.9% | 77.3% | 82.8% | 0.93× | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | 61.7% | 58.5% | 1.06× | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57.6% | 58.6% | 64.5% | 0.91× | 1.71 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.4% | 41.4% | 35.5% | 1.17× | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 38.3% | 41.5% | 0.92× | 2.61 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24.1% | 22.7% | 17.2% | 1.32× | 4.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.6% | 17.7% | 18.3% | 0.97× | 5.65 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 11.9% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 1.86× | 8.07 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 0.92× | 21.86 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 94.4% | 92.4% | 97.1% | 0.95× | 1.08 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 86.4% | 86.7% | 92.5% | 0.94× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 80.5% | 81.1% | 76.2% | 1.06× | 1.23 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 70.5% | 72.4% | 78.9% | 0.92× | 1.38 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 54.4% | 51.9% | 46.1% | 1.13× | 1.93 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 45.6% | 48.1% | 53.9% | 0.89× | 2.08 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 29.5% | 27.6% | 21.1% | 1.31× | 3.62 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 19.5% | 18.9% | 23.8% | 0.79× | 5.28 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 13.6% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 1.78× | 7.53 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 5.6% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 2.60× | 13.17 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 82.4% | 85.8% | 87.2% | 0.98× | 1.17 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 76.3% | 78.1% | 71.9% | 1.09× | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 57.8% | 63.6% | 64.3% | 0.99× | 1.57 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 42.2% | 36.4% | 35.7% | 1.02× | 2.75 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 23.7% | 21.9% | 28.1% | 0.78× | 4.56 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 17.6% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 1.11× | 7.04 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 84.7% | 83.3% | 84.7% | 0.98× | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 70.9% | 77.3% | 75.7% | 1.02× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 56.1% | 54.8% | 54.4% | 1.01× | 1.82 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 43.9% | 45.2% | 45.6% | 0.99× | 2.22 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 29.1% | 22.7% | 24.3% | 0.94× | 4.41 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 15.3% | 16.7% | 15.3% | 1.10× | 5.97 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich not to score in both halves | 72.2% | 73.9% | 68.6% | 1.08× | 1.35 |
| Nottingham Forest not to score in both halves | 65.5% | 69.7% | 76.9% | 0.91× | 1.43 |
| Nottingham Forest to score in both halves | 34.5% | 30.3% | 23.1% | 1.31× | 3.31 |
| Ipswich to score in both halves | 27.8% | 26.1% | 31.4% | 0.83× | 3.83 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 65.1% | 59.8% | 58.0% | 1.03× | 1.67 |
| Only Nottingham Forest scores | 18.6% | 16.0% | 17.1% | 0.94× | 6.24 |
| Only Ipswich scores | 12.7% | 11.0% | 20.1% | 0.55× | 9.06 |
| Neither team scores | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 0.93× | 21.69 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.1% | 22.6% | 23.1% | 0.98× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 19.9% | 17.5% | 23.3% | 0.75× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 18.3% | 17.5% | 18.3% | 0.95× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 12.0% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 0.90× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 12.2% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 1.14× | 8.25 |
| 6 or more goals | 11.9% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 1.81× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0.90× | 22.38 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 34.1% | 35.9% | 36.2% | 0.99× | 2.79 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 24.6% | 21.5% | 23.0% | 0.94× | 4.64 |
| No goals in 1st half | 23.7% | 21.5% | 28.1% | 0.77× | 4.64 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 17.6% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 1.22× | 6.39 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 56.1% | 54.0% | 54.4% | 0.99× | 1.85 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 28.7% | 29.3% | 30.4% | 0.96× | 3.41 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 15.3% | 16.4% | 15.3% | 1.07× | 6.11 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich not to win both halves | 91.9% | 94.1% | 86.4% | 1.09× | 1.06 |
| Nottingham Forest not to win both halves | 86.6% | 87.8% | 91.3% | 0.96× | 1.14 |
| Nottingham Forest to win both halves | 13.4% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 1.40× | 8.23 |
| Ipswich to win both halves | 8.1% | 5.9% | 13.6% | 0.43× | 16.94 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to win either half | 60.4% | 65.0% | 48.4% | 1.34× | 1.54 |
| Ipswich to win neither half | 51.2% | 54.3% | 41.3% | 1.31× | 1.84 |
| Ipswich to win either half | 48.8% | 45.7% | 58.7% | 0.78× | 2.19 |
| Nottingham Forest to win neither half | 39.6% | 35.0% | 51.7% | 0.68× | 2.86 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich not to win to nil | 87.3% | 88.1% | 79.9% | 1.10× | 1.14 |
| Nottingham Forest not to win to nil | 81.4% | 83.1% | 82.9% | 1.00× | 1.20 |
| Nottingham Forest to win to nil | 18.6% | 16.9% | 17.1% | 0.99× | 5.92 |
| Ipswich to win to nil | 12.7% | 11.9% | 20.1% | 0.59× | 8.41 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 22.7% | 24.1% | 24.8% | 0.97× | 4.15 |
| Nottingham Forest by 1 | 20.7% | 24.1% | 16.7% | 1.44× | 4.15 |
| Ipswich by 1 | 17.1% | 17.0% | 19.1% | 0.89× | 5.87 |
| Nottingham Forest by 2 | 13.6% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 1.27× | 8.51 |
| Nottingham Forest by 3+ | 10.9% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 1.80× | 8.51 |
| Ipswich by 2 | 9.3% | 7.2% | 13.2% | 0.55× | 13.90 |
| Ipswich by 3+ | 5.7% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 0.66× | 13.92 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 0.86 xGNottingham Forest 2.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' | Nottingham Forest | Jair | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Milenkovic |
| 7' | Nottingham Forest | Liam Delap | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 8' |
Ipswich |
Abdul Fatawu | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Exequiel Palacios |
| 12' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Daniel Muñoz |
| 18' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 25' |
Ipswich |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emersonn |
| 27' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Exequiel Palacios |
| 30' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.66 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 32' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 40' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Xaver Schlager | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Daniel Muñoz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' | Nottingham Forest | Liam Delap | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' | Nottingham Forest | Liam Delap | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 75' | Nottingham Forest | James McAtee | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 85' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 89' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Ipswich |
Jack Clarke | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.22 | 1.38 |
| Liam Delap FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Jair DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.44 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 1.23 |
| James McAtee MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.44 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Neco Williams DML | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.18 | 0.44 |
| Dan Ndoye AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Wood Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Walton GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Exequiel Palacios DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.46 |
| Issa Diop DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 88 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Florentino Luís DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Abdul Fatawu AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Emersonn FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Zian Flemming Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Clarke Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Daizen Maeda Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Azor Matusiwa Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chuba Akpom Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |