Istanbul Basaksehir v Erzurum BB — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 December 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627
TUR-Super Lig
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 14.3%
- 1-0 11.9%
- 3-0 10.7%
- 2-1 8.9%
- 1-1 8.8%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 54.6% | Under 2.5 | 45.4% |
| BTTS yes | 42.3% | BTTS no | 57.7% |
| Istanbul Basaksehir 1+ | 89.4% | Istanbul Basaksehir 2+ | 65.6% |
| Erzurum BB 1+ | 46.4% | Erzurum BB 2+ | 13.0% |
Expected goals 2.24 – 0.62. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Istanbul Basaksehir carry the stronger rating, 1615 Elo against 1458.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.89).
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Erzurum BB have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Istanbul Basaksehir have an estimated 73.5% win probability, against 18.6% for the draw and 7.9% for Erzurum BB. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.24 for Istanbul Basaksehir and 0.62 for Erzurum BB.
Why Istanbul Basaksehir
Istanbul Basaksehir carry the stronger rating, 1615 Elo against 1458.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 18.6%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Erzurum BB can win
Nothing in the data singles out Erzurum BB.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Istanbul Basaksehir, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Erzurum BB, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Istanbul Basaksehir: 42% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Erzurum BB: 45% possession, 8.5 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Istanbul Basaksehir are the model's most likely outcome at 73.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 14.3%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.24–0.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.87–0.53 | 2-0 14% | 66% | 39% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.