Istra 1961 v HNK Gorica — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · CRO-HNL · 2627

CRO-HNL results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Istra 1961

15:00 UTC

HNK Gorica

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 11 Sep, 11:38 · 195h before kick-off

Istra 1961 win

43.0%

model 42.9%

Draw

32.6%

model 32.8%

HNK Gorica win

24.4%

model 24.3%

433324

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,406 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 15.5%
0-0 12.5%
1-0 10.8%
2-0 9.0%
2-1 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	40.7%	Under 2.5	59.3%
BTTS yes	48.4%	BTTS no	51.6%
Istra 1961 1+	74.0%	Istra 1961 2+	38.9%
HNK Gorica 1+	61.9%	HNK Gorica 2+	25.2%

Expected goals 1.35 – 0.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

26/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Under 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 61%

72.1% fair odds 1.39

moderate signal · 9378 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Istra 1961 or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 975 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home Istra 1961 average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Istra 1961 have only 0 matches on record.
HNK Gorica have only 1 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Istra 1961 have an estimated 43.0% win probability, against 32.6% for the draw and 24.4% for HNK Gorica. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Istra 1961 and 0.97 for HNK Gorica.

Why Istra 1961

At home Istra 1961 average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 32.6%. A combined 2.31 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes.

Why HNK Gorica can win

Nothing in the data singles out HNK Gorica.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Istra 1961, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for HNK Gorica, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Istra 1961: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. HNK Gorica: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Istra 1961 are the model's most likely outcome at 43.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 15.5%. Confidence 26/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	433324	1.35–0.97	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	373627	1.08–0.91	0-0 16%	32%	42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 to win	36.6%	36.2%	47.4%	0.76×	2.76
Draw	36.2%	36.2%	26.1%	1.39×	2.76
HNK Gorica to win	27.3%	27.7%	27.0%	1.03×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 & not both score	24.1%	21.8%	26.1%	0.84×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.8%	18.0%	18.5%	0.98×	5.55
HNK Gorica & not both score	17.5%	18.0%	14.2%	1.27×	5.55
Draw & not both score	16.4%	18.0%	8.1%	2.24×	5.55
Istra 1961 & both teams score	12.5%	13.3%	21.8%	0.61×	7.55
HNK Gorica & both teams score	9.8%	8.4%	13.3%	0.63×	11.96

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw & under 2.5	32.5%	31.0%	19.4%	1.60×	3.22
Draw & under 3.5	32.5%	31.0%	19.4%	1.60×	3.22
Istra 1961 & under 3.5	30.3%	31.0%	33.2%	0.94×	3.22
Istra 1961 & over 1.5	24.4%	21.6%	39.3%	0.55×	4.63
HNK Gorica & under 3.5	23.1%	21.6%	17.1%	1.27×	4.63
Istra 1961 & under 2.5	20.2%	21.6%	19.4%	1.11×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.8%	18.0%	18.5%	0.97×	5.57
HNK Gorica & over 1.5	17.6%	18.0%	24.2%	0.74×	5.57
Istra 1961 & over 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	28.4%	0.63×	5.57
Draw & under 1.5	16.4%	18.0%	8.1%	2.23×	5.57
HNK Gorica & under 2.5	15.3%	18.0%	10.9%	1.65×	5.57
Istra 1961 & under 1.5	12.2%	12.9%	8.5%	1.51×	7.78
HNK Gorica & over 2.5	11.9%	12.9%	16.6%	0.77×	7.78
HNK Gorica & under 1.5	9.7%	8.0%	3.3%	2.40×	12.57
Istra 1961 & over 3.5	6.2%	8.0%	14.7%	0.54×	12.57
HNK Gorica & over 3.5	4.2%	4.9%	10.4%	0.47×	20.58
Draw & over 2.5	3.7%	4.9%	7.1%	0.68×	20.58
Draw & over 3.5	3.7%	4.9%	7.1%	0.68×	20.58

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 (1UP)	50.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
HNK Gorica (1UP)	41.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.55

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 (2UP)	36.6%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
HNK Gorica (2UP)	27.3%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	44.6%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Istra 1961 to win 2nd half	30.1%	34.4%	—	—	2.90
HNK Gorica to win 2nd half	25.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.6%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
HNK Gorica under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
HNK Gorica over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
HNK Gorica over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.4%	13.2%	—	—	7.58

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Istra 1961 under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.0%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Istra 1961 over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.0%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Istra 1961 over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.27

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica (+2.5)	95.1%	96.3%	90.0%	1.07×	1.04
HNK Gorica (+1.5)	84.1%	82.6%	72.5%	1.14×	1.21
Istra 1961 (+0.5)	72.7%	73.7%	73.0%	1.01×	1.36
HNK Gorica (+0.5)	63.4%	63.1%	52.6%	1.20×	1.59
Istra 1961 (-0.5)	36.6%	36.9%	47.4%	0.78×	2.71
HNK Gorica (-0.5)	27.3%	26.3%	27.0%	0.97×	3.80
Istra 1961 (-1.5)	15.9%	17.4%	27.5%	0.63×	5.75
Istra 1961 (-2.5)	4.9%	3.7%	10.0%	0.38×	26.75

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica to concede	66.1%	72.4%	78.2%	0.93×	1.38
HNK Gorica clean sheet	33.9%	27.6%	21.8%	1.27×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica clean sheet in 1st half	62.8%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
HNK Gorica to concede in 1st half	37.2%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica clean sheet in 2nd half	54.0%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
HNK Gorica to concede in 2nd half	46.0%	47.1%	—	—	2.13

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.4%	94.8%	1.03×	1.03
HNK Gorica under 2.5 goals	93.6%	92.2%	87.7%	1.05×	1.09
HNK Gorica under 1.5 goals	77.1%	76.1%	65.4%	1.16×	1.31
HNK Gorica over 0.5 goals	59.5%	58.9%	66.4%	0.89×	1.70
HNK Gorica under 0.5 goals	40.5%	41.1%	33.6%	1.22×	2.44
HNK Gorica over 1.5 goals	22.9%	23.9%	34.6%	0.69×	4.19
HNK Gorica over 2.5 goals	6.4%	7.8%	12.3%	0.63×	12.83
HNK Gorica over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.6%	5.2%	0.49×	38.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica under 1.5 in 1st half	94.8%	94.3%	—	—	1.06
HNK Gorica under 0.5 in 1st half	69.6%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
HNK Gorica over 0.5 in 1st half	30.4%	31.3%	—	—	3.20
HNK Gorica over 1.5 in 1st half	5.2%	5.7%	—	—	17.44

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica scores equally in both	48.8%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
HNK Gorica scores more in 2nd half	31.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
HNK Gorica scores more in 1st half	19.3%	18.1%	—	—	5.54

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 (away no bet)	50.3%	51.2%	64.5%	0.79×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	49.7%	48.8%	35.5%	1.37×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica even goals	58.2%	56.9%	59.2%	0.96×	1.76
HNK Gorica odd goals	41.8%	43.1%	40.8%	1.06×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.5%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.05

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	52.7%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Not both halves under 1.5	47.3%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	39.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Istra 1961 to score 2+ in a row	24.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
HNK Gorica to score 2+ in a row	18.1%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	10.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Istra 1961 to score 3+ in a row	6.7%	5.6%	—	—	17.79
HNK Gorica to score 3+ in a row	4.1%	2.6%	—	—	38.10

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	16.4%	13.6%	8.1%	1.68×	7.37
1-1	16.1%	13.6%	11.8%	1.14×	7.37
1-0	12.2%	11.4%	8.5%	1.33×	8.80
0-1	9.7%	7.4%	3.3%	2.23×	13.52
2-0	8.0%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.53
2-1	7.3%	7.4%	10.9%	0.68×	13.53
0-2	5.6%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.53
1-2	6.1%	7.4%	5.2%	1.42×	13.53
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	57.67
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	57.68
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	57.67
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	57.68
2-2	3.3%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	57.66
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	57.67
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	57.68
3-0	2.9%	1.7%	3.8%	0.46×	57.66
3-1	2.6%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	57.67
3-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	57.67
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	57.68
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	57.68
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	57.68
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	57.68
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	57.68
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	57.68
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	57.68
Any other score	0.7%	1.7%	4.3%	0.41×	57.68

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 (2nd half DNB)	54.3%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
HNK Gorica (2nd half DNB)	45.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.14

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 leading at HT (DNB)	57.7%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
HNK Gorica leading at HT (DNB)	42.3%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 or draw (1X)	72.7%	72.3%	73.0%	0.99×	1.38
Istra 1961 or HNK Gorica (12)	63.8%	63.8%	73.9%	0.86×	1.57
HNK Gorica or draw (X2)	63.4%	63.8%	52.6%	1.21×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 or draw at HT	79.8%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
HNK Gorica or draw at HT	72.5%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Istra 1961 or HNK Gorica at HT	47.7%	52.3%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 or draw (1UP)	72.7%	80.2%	—	—	1.25
HNK Gorica or draw (1UP)	63.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 or draw in 2nd half	74.7%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
HNK Gorica or draw in 2nd half	69.9%	65.6%	—	—	1.53
Istra 1961 or HNK Gorica in 2nd half	55.4%	58.7%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	70.9%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Neither half drawn	29.1%	30.9%	—	—	3.23

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 (DNB)	57.3%	58.3%	63.7%	0.92×	1.72
HNK Gorica (DNB)	42.7%	41.7%	36.3%	1.15×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 to score first	45.5%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
HNK Gorica to score first	38.1%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	16.4%	17.4%	—	—	5.75

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	58.0%	54.8%	47.4%	1.16×	1.83
Both teams to score	42.1%	45.2%	52.6%	0.86×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	51.9%	47.2%	37.4%	1.26×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	25.9%	33.3%	41.2%	0.81×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	16.1%	21.3%	11.8%	1.80×	4.69
Not both score & over 2.5	6.0%	8.4%	10.4%	0.80×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.2%	88.9%	88.2%	1.01×	1.13
Both teams to score 2+	6.8%	11.1%	11.8%	0.94×	9.01

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.8%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.2%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	70.2%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Both score 2nd half only	18.0%	15.7%	—	—	6.37
Both score 1st half only	9.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.65
Both score in both halves	2.2%	4.9%	—	—	20.31

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.2%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	11.8%	13.6%	—	—	7.36

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	60.1%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
A goal in each half	39.9%	41.4%	—	—	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.7%	46.9%	50.2%	0.93×	2.13
0-1 goals	38.3%	35.0%	19.0%	1.84×	2.86
4-6 goals	13.6%	17.1%	29.4%	0.58×	5.83
7+ goals	0.4%	1.8%	2.4%	0.78×	54.16

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica to score exactly 0	40.5%	37.1%	33.6%	1.10×	2.69
HNK Gorica to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.8%	32.2%	1.11×	2.80
HNK Gorica to score exactly 2	16.6%	19.5%	22.7%	0.86×	5.13
HNK Gorica to score 3+	6.4%	8.7%	12.3%	0.71×	11.44

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.5%	31.8%	1.12×	2.81
Istra 1961 to score exactly 0	33.9%	32.6%	21.8%	1.50×	3.06
Istra 1961 to score exactly 2	19.8%	19.2%	29.4%	0.65×	5.22
Istra 1961 to score 3+	9.6%	10.5%	18.0%	0.58×	9.54

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	52.3%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Istra 1961 leading at HT	27.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
HNK Gorica leading at HT	20.2%	19.9%	—	—	5.02

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 -1: 2	63.4%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Istra 1961 -1: X	20.7%	23.6%	—	—	4.23
Istra 1961 -1: 1	15.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica (0:1)	63.4%	61.5%	52.6%	1.17×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.7%	24.4%	20.4%	1.20×	4.10
Istra 1961 (0:1)	15.9%	17.7%	27.5%	0.65×	5.64

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica (0:2)	84.1%	83.2%	72.5%	1.15×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	11.0%	10.8%	18.0%	0.60×	9.23
Istra 1961 (0:2)	4.9%	3.8%	10.0%	0.38×	26.38

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica (0:3)	95.1%	96.6%	90.0%	1.07×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	6.6%	0.36×	42.30
Istra 1961 (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	3.8%	0.62×	42.40

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	96.2%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	2.8%	0.43×	81.73
Istra 1961 (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.4%	0.86×	81.80

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 (1:0)	72.7%	72.6%	73.0%	0.99×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.9%	17.1%	8.5%	2.00×	5.86
HNK Gorica (1:0)	10.4%	12.7%	19.0%	0.67×	7.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 (2:0)	89.6%	88.3%	81.0%	1.09×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.7%	6.6%	12.8%	0.51×	15.26
HNK Gorica (2:0)	2.7%	2.4%	6.6%	0.36×	41.41

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.3%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Halves equal	34.4%	30.6%	—	—	3.27
1st half highest scoring	24.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 to concede	59.5%	60.7%	66.4%	0.92×	1.65
Istra 1961 clean sheet	40.5%	39.3%	33.6%	1.17×	2.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 clean sheet in 1st half	69.6%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Istra 1961 to concede in 1st half	30.4%	31.0%	—	—	3.23

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 clean sheet in 2nd half	58.1%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Istra 1961 to concede in 2nd half	41.9%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 under 3.5 goals	97.6%	96.3%	91.5%	1.05×	1.04
Istra 1961 under 2.5 goals	90.4%	92.1%	82.0%	1.12×	1.09
Istra 1961 under 1.5 goals	70.6%	74.3%	53.1%	1.40×	1.35
Istra 1961 over 0.5 goals	66.1%	67.9%	78.2%	0.87×	1.47
Istra 1961 under 0.5 goals	33.9%	32.1%	21.8%	1.47×	3.11
Istra 1961 over 1.5 goals	29.4%	25.7%	46.9%	0.55×	3.89
Istra 1961 over 2.5 goals	9.6%	7.9%	18.0%	0.44×	12.68
Istra 1961 over 3.5 goals	2.4%	3.7%	8.5%	0.43×	27.03

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 under 1.5 in 1st half	92.0%	95.4%	—	—	1.05
Istra 1961 under 0.5 in 1st half	62.8%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Istra 1961 over 0.5 in 1st half	37.2%	35.3%	—	—	2.83
Istra 1961 over 1.5 in 1st half	8.0%	4.6%	—	—	21.60

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 scores equally in both	44.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Istra 1961 scores more in 2nd half	32.8%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Istra 1961 scores more in 1st half	22.9%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.0%	56.1%	49.1%	1.14×	1.78
HNK Gorica (home no bet)	43.0%	43.9%	50.9%	0.86×	2.28

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 even goals	55.7%	55.4%	57.8%	0.96×	1.81
Istra 1961 odd goals	44.3%	44.6%	42.2%	1.06×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	44.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
HT 1-0	19.9%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 0-1	15.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	7.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 0-2	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.58
Any other HT score	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.57
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.61
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.68

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	26.1%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Istra 1961 at HT / Istra 1961 at FT	20.7%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Istra 1961 at FT	14.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
HNK Gorica at HT / HNK Gorica at FT	14.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / HNK Gorica at FT	11.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Istra 1961 at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
HNK Gorica at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
HNK Gorica at HT / Istra 1961 at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Istra 1961 at HT / HNK Gorica at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 to score last	45.6%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
HNK Gorica to score last	38.0%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	16.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	83.6%	87.4%	—	—	1.14
Istra 1961 to lead by 1 at any time	50.3%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
HNK Gorica to lead by 1 at any time	41.9%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	33.5%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Istra 1961 to lead by 2 at any time	19.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
HNK Gorica to lead by 2 at any time	13.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	9.2%	6.7%	—	—	15.01
Istra 1961 to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.18
HNK Gorica to lead by 3 at any time	3.4%	1.6%	—	—	61.02

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.0%	83.3%	87.2%	0.96×	1.20
1-4 goals	78.5%	78.5%	80.6%	0.97×	1.27
1-3 goals	69.6%	68.9%	61.1%	1.13×	1.45
2-6 goals	61.3%	63.2%	79.1%	0.80×	1.58
2-5 goals	60.1%	63.2%	76.3%	0.83×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.6%	59.3%	69.7%	0.85×	1.69
1-2 goals	51.6%	53.4%	41.2%	1.30×	1.87
2-3 goals	47.7%	48.5%	50.2%	0.96×	2.06
3-6 goals	31.5%	35.3%	49.3%	0.72×	2.83
3-5 goals	30.4%	35.3%	46.4%	0.76×	2.83
3-4 goals	26.8%	30.6%	39.8%	0.77×	3.27
4-6 goals	13.6%	15.0%	29.4%	0.51×	6.65
4-5 goals	12.4%	15.0%	26.5%	0.57×	6.65
5-6 goals	4.7%	2.6%	10.0%	0.26×	38.87
7+ goals	0.4%	2.6%	2.4%	1.08×	39.05

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Istra 1961 never behind	41.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
HNK Gorica never behind	33.3%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	43.7%	50.2%	39.8%	1.26×	1.99
Even number of goals	56.3%	49.8%	60.2%	0.83×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	60.5%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Odd goals in 1st half	39.5%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	56.8%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half	43.2%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.4%	95.4%	94.8%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	94.9%	92.2%	88.2%	1.05×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	85.9%	87.4%	68.7%	1.27×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	83.6%	82.2%	91.9%	0.89×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	68.0%	66.0%	48.8%	1.35×	1.52
Over 1.5 goals	61.7%	62.0%	81.0%	0.76×	1.61
Under 1.5 goals	38.3%	38.0%	19.0%	2.01×	2.63
Over 2.5 goals	32.0%	34.0%	51.2%	0.66×	2.94
Under 0.5 goals	16.4%	17.8%	8.1%	2.21×	5.61
Over 3.5 goals	14.1%	12.6%	31.3%	0.40×	7.96
Over 4.5 goals	5.1%	7.8%	11.8%	0.66×	12.85
Over 5.5 goals	1.6%	4.6%	5.2%	0.88×	21.79

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.2%	97.6%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.3%	97.2%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.3%	92.4%	85.3%	1.08×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	82.9%	80.5%	60.9%	1.32×	1.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	54.5%	52.4%	27.0%	1.94×	1.91
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	45.5%	47.6%	73.0%	0.65×	2.10
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	17.1%	19.5%	39.1%	0.50×	5.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.7%	7.6%	14.7%	0.52×	13.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.7%	2.8%	5.6%	0.51×	35.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.8%	2.4%	1.17×	35.19

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.9%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	79.4%	78.9%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	55.8%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Under 0.5 in 1st half	44.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Over 1.5 in 1st half	20.6%	21.1%	—	—	4.74
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.06

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	88.8%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.7%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.8%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.2%	32.5%	—	—	3.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.3%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	11.2%	14.5%	—	—	6.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica not to score in both halves	87.3%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Istra 1961 not to score in both halves	82.9%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Istra 1961 to score in both halves	17.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.40
HNK Gorica to score in both halves	12.7%	14.2%	—	—	7.04

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	42.1%	46.7%	52.6%	0.89×	2.14
Only Istra 1961 scores	24.1%	22.0%	26.1%	0.84×	4.54
Only HNK Gorica scores	17.5%	16.0%	14.2%	1.12×	6.25
Neither team scores	16.4%	16.0%	8.1%	1.98×	6.26

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	29.8%	24.7%	30.3%	0.81×	4.05
Exactly 1 goals	21.9%	22.4%	11.4%	1.97×	4.46
Exactly 3 goals	17.9%	17.6%	20.4%	0.86×	5.70
Exactly 0 goals	16.4%	17.5%	8.1%	2.18×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	8.9%	7.8%	19.9%	0.39×	12.85
Exactly 5 goals	3.5%	4.5%	7.1%	0.63×	22.24
6 or more goals	1.6%	4.5%	5.2%	0.86×	22.26

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	44.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
1 goal in 1st half	35.2%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
2 goals in 1st half	15.4%	15.2%	—	—	6.59
3+ goals in 1st half	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.06

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	34.5%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
2+ goals in 2nd half	33.2%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	32.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.00

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica not to win both halves	94.6%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Istra 1961 not to win both halves	91.3%	93.9%	—	—	1.06
Istra 1961 to win both halves	8.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
HNK Gorica to win both halves	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.74

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica to win neither half	59.9%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Istra 1961 to win neither half	51.1%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Istra 1961 to win either half	48.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
HNK Gorica to win either half	40.1%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HNK Gorica not to win to nil	82.5%	83.2%	85.8%	0.97×	1.20
Istra 1961 not to win to nil	75.9%	78.3%	73.9%	1.06×	1.28
Istra 1961 to win to nil	24.1%	21.7%	26.1%	0.83×	4.62
HNK Gorica to win to nil	17.5%	16.8%	14.2%	1.18×	5.94

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	36.2%	34.5%	26.1%	1.32×	2.90
Istra 1961 by 1	20.7%	24.2%	20.4%	1.19×	4.14
HNK Gorica by 1	16.9%	16.9%	8.5%	1.98×	5.92
Istra 1961 by 2	11.0%	11.7%	18.0%	0.65×	8.53
HNK Gorica by 2	7.7%	7.3%	12.8%	0.57×	13.76
Istra 1961 by 3+	4.9%	2.8%	10.0%	0.28×	35.54
HNK Gorica by 3+	2.7%	2.8%	6.6%	0.42×	35.60