Jong Ajax v De Graafschap — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 19 October 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627
NED-Eerste Divisie
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-2 8.9%
- 1-1 8.7%
- 2-1 7.0%
- 2-2 6.9%
- 0-1 6.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 68.0% | Under 2.5 | 32.0% |
| BTTS yes | 67.1% | BTTS no | 32.9% |
| Jong Ajax 1+ | 78.6% | Jong Ajax 2+ | 45.7% |
| De Graafschap 1+ | 85.9% | De Graafschap 2+ | 58.3% |
Expected goals 1.54 – 1.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- De Graafschap carry the stronger rating, 1468 Elo against 1322.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
De Graafschap have an estimated 46.6% win probability, against 31.0% for Jong Ajax and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.54 for Jong Ajax and 1.96 for De Graafschap.
Why Jong Ajax
Nothing in the data singles out Jong Ajax.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.
Why De Graafschap can win
De Graafschap carry the stronger rating, 1468 Elo against 1322.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Jong Ajax, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for De Graafschap, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Jong Ajax: 51% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. De Graafschap: 57% possession, 18.2 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
De Graafschap are the model's most likely outcome at 46.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 8.9%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.47–2.01 | 1-2 9% | 68% | 66% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.