Jong Ajax v Heracles Almelo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 27 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Jong Ajax

19:00 UTC

Heracles Almelo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 872h before kick-off

Jong Ajax win

17.7%

model 15.9%

Draw

17.7%

model 15.3%

Heracles Almelo win

64.6%

model 68.9%

181865

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 8.0%
1-3 7.8%
0-2 5.8%
1-4 5.6%
0-3 5.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	80.2%	Under 2.5	19.8%
BTTS yes	70.7%	BTTS no	29.3%
Jong Ajax 1+	75.0%	Jong Ajax 2+	40.3%
Heracles Almelo 1+	94.5%	Heracles Almelo 2+	78.7%

Expected goals 1.39 – 2.91. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

58/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Heracles Almelo (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

68.8% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Heracles Almelo or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Heracles Almelo carry the stronger rating, 1413 Elo against 1307.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Heracles Almelo have an estimated 64.6% win probability, against 17.7% for Jong Ajax and 17.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.39 for Jong Ajax and 2.91 for Heracles Almelo.

Why Jong Ajax

Nothing in the data singles out Jong Ajax.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.7%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Heracles Almelo can win

Heracles Almelo carry the stronger rating, 1413 Elo against 1307. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Jong Ajax, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Heracles Almelo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Jong Ajax: 52% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Heracles Almelo: 57% possession, 22.4 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Heracles Almelo are the model's most likely outcome at 64.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 8.0%. Confidence 58/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	161569	1.39–2.91	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	141374	1.58–3.49	1-3 7%	88%	77%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win	73.4%	73.8%	33.5%	2.20×	1.36
Jong Ajax to win	13.7%	13.5%	44.5%	0.30×	7.40
Draw	12.9%	13.5%	22.1%	0.61×	7.41

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & both teams score	53.3%	48.5%	19.7%	2.47×	2.06
Heracles Almelo & not both score	20.1%	21.8%	14.0%	1.56×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	12.4%	13.3%	17.4%	0.76×	7.54
Jong Ajax & both teams score	11.1%	13.3%	22.0%	0.60×	7.54
Jong Ajax & not both score	2.6%	4.9%	22.6%	0.21×	20.62
Draw & not both score	0.5%	4.8%	4.8%	1.01×	20.68

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & over 2.5	67.2%	67.7%	23.7%	2.85×	1.48
Heracles Almelo & over 1.5	71.1%	67.3%	27.4%	2.46×	1.49
Heracles Almelo & over 3.5	56.6%	54.9%	13.9%	3.95×	1.82
Heracles Almelo & under 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Jong Ajax & over 1.5	12.6%	12.8%	37.0%	0.35×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	12.4%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Jong Ajax & over 2.5	11.8%	12.8%	30.8%	0.42×	7.79
Jong Ajax & over 3.5	8.6%	7.9%	18.9%	0.42×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	9.0%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.0%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Heracles Almelo & under 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	10.0%	0.80×	12.63
Jong Ajax & under 3.5	5.1%	7.9%	25.7%	0.31×	12.63
Draw & under 2.5	3.9%	4.8%	14.1%	0.34×	20.81
Draw & under 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	14.1%	0.34×	20.81
Jong Ajax & under 2.5	1.9%	4.8%	13.8%	0.35×	20.83
Heracles Almelo & under 1.5	2.3%	4.8%	6.3%	0.77×	20.82
Jong Ajax & under 1.5	1.1%	4.8%	7.6%	0.63×	20.83
Draw & under 1.5	0.5%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1UP)	86.0%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Jong Ajax (1UP)	39.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2UP)	73.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Jong Ajax (2UP)	13.7%	14.2%	—	—	7.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win 2nd half	64.7%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
2nd half drawn	20.0%	18.3%	—	—	5.47
Jong Ajax to win 2nd half	15.3%	17.9%	—	—	5.59

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.6%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 2nd half	61.6%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 2nd half	38.4%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.4%	13.2%	—	—	7.58

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.2%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.8%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (+2.5)	98.0%	96.3%	88.2%	1.09×	1.04
Heracles Almelo (+1.5)	94.3%	92.1%	75.6%	1.22×	1.09
Heracles Almelo (+0.5)	86.3%	88.5%	55.5%	1.59×	1.13
Heracles Almelo (-0.5)	73.4%	73.7%	33.5%	2.20×	1.36
Jong Ajax (+0.5)	26.6%	26.3%	66.5%	0.40×	3.80
Jong Ajax (-0.5)	13.7%	11.5%	44.5%	0.26×	8.66
Jong Ajax (-1.5)	5.7%	7.9%	24.4%	0.32×	12.70
Jong Ajax (-2.5)	2.0%	3.7%	11.8%	0.31×	27.17

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede	79.4%	78.8%	81.3%	0.97×	1.27
Heracles Almelo clean sheet	20.6%	21.2%	18.7%	1.14×	4.72

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 1st half	50.7%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Heracles Almelo to concede in 1st half	49.3%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede in 2nd half	59.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 2nd half	40.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 corners	89.8%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 corners	79.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Heracles Almelo over 4.5 corners	66.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Heracles Almelo under 6.5 corners	60.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Heracles Almelo over 5.5 corners	52.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Heracles Almelo under 5.5 corners	47.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Heracles Almelo over 6.5 corners	39.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Heracles Almelo under 4.5 corners	33.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 corners	20.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 corners	10.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 goals	96.9%	97.5%	72.7%	1.34×	1.03
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 goals	86.2%	87.8%	42.0%	2.09×	1.14
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 goals	67.5%	68.0%	18.6%	3.67×	1.47
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 goals	54.2%	53.6%	93.0%	0.58×	1.87
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 goals	45.8%	46.4%	7.0%	6.63×	2.15
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 goals	32.5%	32.0%	81.5%	0.39×	3.12
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 goals	13.8%	12.2%	58.0%	0.21×	8.19
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 goals	3.1%	2.5%	27.3%	0.09×	39.88

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 1st half	75.2%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 1st half	59.4%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 1st half	40.6%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 1st half	24.8%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo scores more in 2nd half	53.3%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Heracles Almelo scores more in 1st half	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Heracles Almelo scores equally in both	21.2%	21.9%	—	—	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (away no bet)	51.5%	51.7%	66.8%	0.77×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	48.5%	48.3%	33.2%	1.45×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo even goals	50.1%	52.6%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90
Heracles Almelo odd goals	49.9%	47.4%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	51.0%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
Both halves over 1.5 goals	49.0%	46.1%	—	—	2.17

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	92.2%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Both halves under 1.5 goals	7.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.85

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	86.9%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Heracles Almelo to score 2+ in a row	77.4%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Either team to score 3+ in a row	54.2%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Heracles Almelo to score 3+ in a row	48.9%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Jong Ajax to score 2+ in a row	28.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Jong Ajax to score 3+ in a row	7.3%	5.6%	—	—	17.96

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo corners (+3.5)	86.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Heracles Almelo corners (+2.5)	80.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Jong Ajax corners (+3.5)	75.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Heracles Almelo corners (+1.5)	72.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Jong Ajax corners (+2.5)	67.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Jong Ajax corners (+1.5)	57.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Heracles Almelo corners (-1.5)	42.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Heracles Almelo corners (-2.5)	32.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Jong Ajax corners (-1.5)	27.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Heracles Almelo corners (-3.5)	24.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Jong Ajax corners (-2.5)	19.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Jong Ajax corners (-3.5)	13.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	43.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
0-8 corners	26.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	82.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	65.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 9.5 corners	63.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	56.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	43.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	36.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	34.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	26.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	18.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	28.4%	20.7%	4.7%	4.43×	4.83
1-3	7.1%	7.4%	3.7%	2.01×	13.51
1-2	6.1%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
1-4	6.2%	7.4%	2.2%	3.35×	13.51
2-3	5.6%	7.4%	3.6%	2.08×	13.51
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.29
2-4	4.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.29
0-0	0.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.32
0-1	2.3%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.31
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
0-3	4.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.29
0-4	3.9%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.30
1-0	1.1%	1.7%	7.6%	0.23×	58.31
1-1	3.4%	1.7%	9.5%	0.18×	58.30
2-0	0.8%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.31
2-1	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	0.21×	58.30
3-0	0.4%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.32
3-1	1.5%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.31
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-3	2.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.30
3-4	2.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.30
4-0	0.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.32
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.32
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.31
4-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.96×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2nd half DNB)	80.9%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Jong Ajax (2nd half DNB)	19.1%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT (DNB)	74.9%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Jong Ajax leading at HT (DNB)	25.1%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax or Heracles Almelo (12)	87.1%	86.5%	77.9%	1.11×	1.16
Heracles Almelo or draw (X2)	86.3%	86.5%	55.5%	1.56×	1.16
Jong Ajax or draw (1X)	26.6%	26.2%	66.5%	0.39×	3.82

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw at HT	81.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Jong Ajax or Heracles Almelo at HT	72.4%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Jong Ajax or draw at HT	45.8%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw (1UP)	86.3%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Jong Ajax or draw (1UP)	39.2%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw in 2nd half	84.7%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Jong Ajax or Heracles Almelo in 2nd half	80.0%	81.7%	—	—	1.22
Jong Ajax or draw in 2nd half	35.3%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	57.8%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
A half drawn	42.2%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (DNB)	84.3%	80.4%	43.0%	1.87×	1.24
Jong Ajax (DNB)	15.7%	19.6%	57.0%	0.34×	5.10

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score first	68.5%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Jong Ajax to score first	31.0%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
No goal scored	0.5%	4.2%	—	—	23.86

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	76.8%	62.0%	58.8%	1.05×	1.61
Not both teams to score	23.2%	38.0%	41.2%	0.92×	2.63

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	73.5%	59.6%	49.5%	1.20×	1.68
Not both score & over 2.5	14.6%	12.4%	13.0%	0.95×	8.09
Not both score & under 2.5	8.6%	8.3%	28.3%	0.29×	12.06
Both score & under 2.5	3.4%	4.7%	9.5%	0.49×	21.44

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	59.6%	62.2%	79.0%	0.79×	1.61
Both teams to score 2+	40.4%	37.8%	21.0%	1.80×	2.65

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half	52.0%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Not both to score in 2nd half	48.0%	48.2%	—	—	2.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score 2nd half only	32.7%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Neither half both score	30.3%	26.8%	—	—	3.73
Both score in both halves	19.3%	15.1%	—	—	6.61
Both score 1st half only	17.8%	15.1%	—	—	6.64

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	62.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Both teams to score by HT	37.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	83.0%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
A half without a goal	17.0%	18.4%	—	—	5.45

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	50.0%	47.2%	37.6%	1.26×	2.12
7+ goals	24.3%	22.9%	3.2%	7.17×	4.36
2-3 goals	21.8%	22.9%	41.0%	0.56×	4.37
0-1 goals	4.0%	1.8%	18.4%	0.10×	54.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score 3+	67.5%	59.9%	18.6%	3.23×	1.67
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 2	18.7%	19.6%	23.6%	0.83×	5.11
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 1	10.7%	12.9%	30.8%	0.42×	7.77
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 0	3.1%	4.6%	27.3%	0.17×	21.85

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to score exactly 1	32.5%	32.6%	30.2%	1.08×	3.07
Jong Ajax to score exactly 2	25.7%	26.5%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
Jong Ajax to score 3+	21.1%	23.3%	25.6%	0.91×	4.29
Jong Ajax to score exactly 0	20.6%	23.3%	18.7%	1.25×	4.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT	54.2%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Draw at HT	27.6%	24.9%	—	—	4.02
Jong Ajax leading at HT	18.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.34

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo -1: 2	56.0%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Heracles Almelo -1: 1	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Heracles Almelo -1: X	17.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:1)	86.3%	89.2%	55.5%	1.61×	1.12
Draw (0:1)	8.0%	9.2%	20.1%	0.46×	10.81
Jong Ajax (0:1)	5.7%	9.2%	24.4%	0.38×	10.87

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:2)	94.3%	90.8%	75.6%	1.20×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	3.7%	3.8%	12.8%	0.29×	26.65
Jong Ajax (0:2)	2.0%	3.7%	11.8%	0.32×	26.75

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:3)	98.0%	96.6%	88.2%	1.10×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	5.7%	0.42×	42.13
Jong Ajax (0:3)	0.6%	2.4%	6.3%	0.38×	42.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:4)	99.4%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	82.05
Jong Ajax (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	82.09

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1:0)	56.0%	58.3%	15.5%	3.76×	1.72
Jong Ajax (1:0)	26.6%	25.1%	66.5%	0.38×	3.99
Draw (1:0)	17.4%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (2:0)	44.1%	50.1%	84.5%	0.59×	1.99
Heracles Almelo (2:0)	37.9%	34.7%	6.8%	5.14×	2.88
Draw (2:0)	18.1%	15.8%	8.8%	1.79×	6.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	56.9%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
1st half highest scoring	26.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	16.8%	19.1%	—	—	5.24

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede	96.9%	96.1%	72.7%	1.32×	1.04
Jong Ajax clean sheet	3.1%	3.9%	27.3%	0.14×	25.57

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 1st half	75.2%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 1st half	24.8%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 2nd half	87.6%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 2nd half	12.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.27

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax over 2.5 corners	84.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Jong Ajax under 6.5 corners	71.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Jong Ajax over 3.5 corners	71.1%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Jong Ajax under 5.5 corners	59.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Jong Ajax over 4.5 corners	55.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Jong Ajax under 4.5 corners	44.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Jong Ajax over 5.5 corners	40.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Jong Ajax under 3.5 corners	28.9%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Jong Ajax over 6.5 corners	28.1%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Jong Ajax under 2.5 corners	15.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 3.5 goals	92.4%	92.2%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Jong Ajax over 0.5 goals	79.4%	77.7%	81.3%	0.96×	1.29
Jong Ajax under 2.5 goals	78.9%	77.7%	74.4%	1.04×	1.29
Jong Ajax under 1.5 goals	53.1%	53.2%	48.8%	1.09×	1.88
Jong Ajax over 1.5 goals	46.9%	46.8%	51.2%	0.91×	2.14
Jong Ajax over 2.5 goals	21.1%	22.3%	25.6%	0.87×	4.49
Jong Ajax under 0.5 goals	20.6%	22.3%	18.7%	1.19×	4.49
Jong Ajax over 3.5 goals	7.6%	7.8%	10.1%	0.77×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 1st half	85.1%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 1st half	50.7%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 1st half	49.3%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 1st half	14.9%	9.9%	—	—	10.09

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax scores more in 2nd half	38.7%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Jong Ajax scores equally in both	35.3%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Jong Ajax scores more in 1st half	26.0%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (home no bet)	85.0%	84.9%	60.3%	1.41×	1.18
Draw (home no bet)	15.0%	15.1%	39.7%	0.38×	6.61

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax even goals	52.1%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Jong Ajax odd goals	47.9%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	19.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 0-1	17.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 0-0	12.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
HT 0-2	12.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	11.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-0	8.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 1-2	8.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.01
HT 2-0	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 2-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.09

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	49.2%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Draw at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	17.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Jong Ajax at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	7.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.61
Jong Ajax at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	6.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Jong Ajax at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.62
Draw at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Heracles Almelo at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Heracles Almelo at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score last	68.4%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Jong Ajax to score last	31.1%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
No goal scored	0.5%	4.2%	—	—	23.86

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	99.5%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Heracles Almelo to lead by 1 at any time	86.0%	91.0%	—	—	1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	77.9%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Heracles Almelo to lead by 2 at any time	65.9%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	48.6%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Heracles Almelo to lead by 3 at any time	44.5%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Jong Ajax to lead by 1 at any time	39.2%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Jong Ajax to lead by 2 at any time	13.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Jong Ajax to lead by 3 at any time	4.2%	1.6%	—	—	60.67

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo most corners	52.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Jong Ajax most corners	36.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	71.7%	72.4%	78.5%	0.92×	1.38
3-6 goals	63.7%	63.3%	59.3%	1.07×	1.58
1-5 goals	60.3%	63.3%	86.4%	0.73×	1.58
2-5 goals	56.8%	59.1%	72.7%	0.81×	1.69
4-6 goals	50.0%	48.5%	37.6%	1.29×	2.06
3-5 goals	48.8%	48.5%	53.6%	0.91×	2.06
1-4 goals	42.6%	43.6%	74.1%	0.59×	2.30
2-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	60.4%	0.65×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.1%	39.2%	31.8%	1.23×	2.55
5-6 goals	32.6%	35.2%	18.2%	1.94×	2.84
3-4 goals	31.2%	35.2%	41.3%	0.85×	2.84
1-3 goals	25.2%	30.2%	54.7%	0.55×	3.31
7+ goals	24.3%	24.5%	3.2%	7.67×	4.08
2-3 goals	21.8%	24.5%	41.0%	0.60×	4.09
1-2 goals	11.5%	14.8%	32.9%	0.45×	6.75

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo never behind	60.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Jong Ajax never behind	13.5%	12.3%	—	—	8.12

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.8%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	49.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	99.5%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	96.0%	95.4%	81.6%	1.17×	1.05
Over 2.5 goals	88.0%	87.6%	62.4%	1.40×	1.14
Over 3.5 goals	74.3%	72.5%	40.7%	1.78×	1.38
Under 5.5 goals	60.8%	61.7%	91.0%	0.68×	1.62
Over 4.5 goals	56.9%	58.6%	21.3%	2.76×	1.71
Under 4.5 goals	43.1%	41.4%	78.7%	0.53×	2.42
Over 5.5 goals	39.2%	38.3%	9.0%	4.27×	2.61
Under 3.5 goals	25.7%	27.5%	59.3%	0.46×	3.63
Under 2.5 goals	12.0%	12.4%	37.6%	0.33×	8.07
Under 1.5 goals	4.0%	4.6%	18.4%	0.25×	21.85
Under 0.5 goals	0.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.95×	21.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	95.7%	97.2%	77.2%	1.26×	1.03
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	86.1%	86.7%	52.0%	1.67×	1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	71.4%	72.4%	96.6%	0.75×	1.38
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	68.9%	67.5%	26.4%	2.56×	1.48
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	52.4%	51.9%	89.8%	0.58×	1.93
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	47.6%	48.1%	10.2%	4.70×	2.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	31.1%	32.5%	73.6%	0.44×	3.07
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	28.6%	27.6%	3.4%	8.15×	3.62
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	13.9%	13.3%	48.0%	0.28×	7.53
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	4.3%	2.8%	22.8%	0.12×	35.53

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	87.5%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Under 2.5 in 1st half	65.7%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	61.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 1.5 in 1st half	38.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half	34.3%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
Under 0.5 in 1st half	12.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.24

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	95.0%	95.1%	—	—	1.05
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	79.8%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	57.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	42.7%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	20.2%	20.6%	—	—	4.86
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	5.0%	4.9%	—	—	20.51

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to score in both halves	70.7%	73.8%	—	—	1.35
Heracles Almelo to score in both halves	65.9%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Heracles Almelo not to score in both halves	34.1%	30.2%	—	—	3.31
Jong Ajax to score in both halves	29.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	76.8%	67.1%	58.8%	1.14×	1.49
Only Heracles Almelo scores	20.1%	22.2%	14.0%	1.59×	4.50
Only Jong Ajax scores	2.6%	4.6%	22.6%	0.20×	21.74
Neither team scores	0.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.82

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	39.2%	27.9%	9.0%	3.12×	3.58
Exactly 4 goals	17.4%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	17.7%	17.5%	12.4%	1.41×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	13.7%	12.1%	21.9%	0.55×	8.24
Exactly 2 goals	8.0%	7.6%	19.3%	0.39×	13.13
Exactly 1 goals	3.4%	4.5%	13.8%	0.32×	22.39
Exactly 0 goals	0.5%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.43

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
3+ goals in 1st half	34.3%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	27.0%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
1 goal in 1st half	26.1%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
No goals in 1st half	12.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.32

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	79.8%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
1 goal in 2nd half	15.2%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
No goals in 2nd half	5.0%	4.9%	—	—	20.51

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win both halves	97.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Heracles Almelo not to win both halves	65.0%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Heracles Almelo to win both halves	35.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Jong Ajax to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.63

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win either half	83.9%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Jong Ajax to win neither half	69.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Jong Ajax to win either half	30.7%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
Heracles Almelo to win neither half	16.1%	16.2%	—	—	6.16

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win to nil	97.4%	96.2%	77.4%	1.24×	1.04
Heracles Almelo not to win to nil	79.9%	78.1%	86.0%	0.91×	1.28
Heracles Almelo to win to nil	20.1%	21.9%	14.0%	1.56×	4.58
Jong Ajax to win to nil	2.6%	3.8%	22.6%	0.17×	26.12

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo by 3+	37.9%	34.8%	6.8%	5.14×	2.88
Heracles Almelo by 2	18.1%	17.1%	8.8%	1.93×	5.87
Heracles Almelo by 1	17.4%	17.0%	18.2%	0.94×	5.87
Draw	12.9%	11.8%	22.1%	0.53×	8.51
Jong Ajax by 1	8.0%	7.2%	20.1%	0.36×	13.91
Jong Ajax by 2	3.7%	2.7%	12.8%	0.21×	36.79
Jong Ajax by 3+	2.0%	2.7%	11.8%	0.23×	36.84