Jong Ajax v Jong AZ — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 23 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Jong Ajax

19:00 UTC

Jong AZ

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 704h before kick-off

Jong Ajax win

38.5%

model 39.6%

Draw

23.1%

model 22.1%

Jong AZ win

38.4%

model 38.2%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.5%
2-1 8.3%
1-2 8.1%
2-2 6.9%
1-0 6.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.3%	Under 2.5	34.7%
BTTS yes	65.9%	BTTS no	34.1%
Jong Ajax 1+	81.7%	Jong Ajax 2+	50.6%
Jong AZ 1+	81.1%	Jong AZ 2+	49.5%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.66. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

60/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Jong AZ over 0.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 73%

82.5% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1052 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Jong Ajax.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Jong Ajax have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.4% for Jong AZ and 23.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for Jong Ajax and 1.66 for Jong AZ.

Why Jong Ajax

Nothing in the data singles out Jong Ajax.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.1%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.70 to 1.66. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Jong AZ can win

Jong AZ carry the stronger rating, 1380 Elo against 1307.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Jong Ajax, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Jong AZ, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Jong Ajax: 52% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Jong AZ: 49% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Jong Ajax's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Jong Ajax are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.5%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	402238	1.70–1.66	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392240	1.74–1.77	1-1 9%	68%	68%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to win	39.8%	36.4%	33.5%	1.08×	2.75
Jong Ajax to win	38.6%	36.4%	44.5%	0.82×	2.75
Draw	21.6%	24.5%	22.1%	1.11×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ & both teams score	24.9%	21.8%	19.7%	1.11×	4.59
Jong Ajax & both teams score	24.2%	21.8%	22.0%	0.99×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Jong AZ & not both score	14.9%	13.3%	14.0%	0.95×	7.54
Jong Ajax & not both score	14.4%	13.3%	22.6%	0.59×	7.54
Draw & not both score	2.7%	4.9%	4.8%	1.02×	20.53

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ & over 1.5	34.2%	30.8%	27.4%	1.12×	3.25
Jong Ajax & over 1.5	33.1%	30.8%	37.0%	0.83×	3.25
Jong AZ & over 2.5	29.5%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Jong Ajax & over 2.5	28.5%	26.1%	30.8%	0.84×	3.84
Jong Ajax & under 3.5	20.7%	21.6%	25.7%	0.84×	4.63
Jong AZ & under 3.5	21.2%	21.6%	19.8%	1.09×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.55
Jong AZ & over 3.5	18.6%	18.0%	13.9%	1.30×	5.55
Jong Ajax & over 3.5	17.9%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.55
Draw & under 2.5	11.6%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	11.6%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Jong AZ & under 2.5	10.3%	12.8%	10.0%	1.29×	7.79
Jong Ajax & under 2.5	10.1%	12.8%	13.8%	0.93×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	10.0%	12.8%	8.1%	1.58×	7.79
Draw & over 3.5	10.0%	12.8%	8.1%	1.58×	7.79
Jong Ajax & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.63
Jong AZ & under 1.5	5.6%	7.9%	6.3%	1.26×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	2.7%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (1UP)	59.7%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Jong Ajax (1UP)	58.7%	58.0%	—	—	1.73

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (2UP)	39.8%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Jong Ajax (2UP)	38.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.67

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to win 2nd half	36.7%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Jong Ajax to win 2nd half	33.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
2nd half drawn	30.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.3%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Jong AZ over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.4%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Jong AZ under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.6%	30.6%	—	—	3.27
Jong AZ over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.7%	24.6%	—	—	4.07

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.9%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.71
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.1%	25.5%	—	—	3.92

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (+2.5)	91.7%	92.1%	88.2%	1.04×	1.09
Jong AZ (+1.5)	80.3%	82.6%	75.6%	1.09×	1.21
Jong AZ (+0.5)	61.4%	62.9%	55.5%	1.13×	1.59
Jong Ajax (+0.5)	60.2%	62.9%	66.5%	0.95×	1.59
Jong AZ (-0.5)	39.8%	37.1%	33.5%	1.11×	2.70
Jong Ajax (-0.5)	38.6%	37.1%	44.5%	0.83×	2.70
Jong Ajax (-1.5)	19.7%	17.4%	24.4%	0.71×	5.73
Jong Ajax (-2.5)	8.3%	7.9%	11.8%	0.67×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede	82.4%	81.5%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
Jong AZ clean sheet	17.6%	18.5%	18.7%	0.99×	5.40

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede in 1st half	52.7%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Jong AZ clean sheet in 1st half	47.3%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede in 2nd half	62.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Jong AZ clean sheet in 2nd half	37.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.62

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ over 2.5 corners	84.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Jong AZ under 6.5 corners	71.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Jong AZ over 3.5 corners	71.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Jong AZ under 5.5 corners	58.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Jong AZ over 4.5 corners	56.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Jong AZ under 4.5 corners	44.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Jong AZ over 5.5 corners	41.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Jong AZ under 3.5 corners	28.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Jong AZ over 6.5 corners	28.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Jong AZ under 2.5 corners	15.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 3.5 goals	89.6%	87.8%	93.0%	0.94×	1.14
Jong AZ over 0.5 goals	82.9%	81.5%	72.7%	1.12×	1.23
Jong AZ under 2.5 goals	73.9%	71.9%	81.5%	0.88×	1.39
Jong AZ over 1.5 goals	52.8%	53.5%	42.0%	1.27×	1.87
Jong AZ under 1.5 goals	47.2%	46.5%	58.0%	0.80×	2.15
Jong AZ over 2.5 goals	26.1%	28.1%	18.6%	1.52×	3.55
Jong AZ under 0.5 goals	17.1%	18.5%	27.3%	0.68×	5.41
Jong AZ over 3.5 goals	10.4%	12.2%	7.0%	1.74×	8.21

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 1.5 in 1st half	84.2%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Jong AZ over 0.5 in 1st half	50.7%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Jong AZ under 0.5 in 1st half	49.3%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Jong AZ over 1.5 in 1st half	15.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ scores more in 2nd half	43.4%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Jong AZ scores equally in both	32.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Jong AZ scores more in 1st half	24.1%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (away no bet)	64.1%	61.9%	66.8%	0.93×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	35.9%	38.1%	33.2%	1.15×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ even goals	51.5%	52.6%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90
Jong AZ odd goals	48.5%	47.4%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	74.0%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	26.0%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.4%	72.2%	—	—	1.39
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	68.4%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Jong AZ to score 2+ in a row	40.7%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Jong Ajax to score 2+ in a row	39.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.4%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Jong AZ to score 3+ in a row	14.9%	12.2%	—	—	8.18
Jong Ajax to score 3+ in a row	14.3%	12.2%	—	—	8.20

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax corners (+3.5)	83.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Jong AZ corners (+3.5)	81.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Jong Ajax corners (+2.5)	76.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Jong AZ corners (+2.5)	73.2%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Jong Ajax corners (+1.5)	67.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Jong AZ corners (+1.5)	63.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Jong Ajax corners (-1.5)	36.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Jong AZ corners (-1.5)	32.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Jong Ajax corners (-2.5)	26.8%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Jong AZ corners (-2.5)	23.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Jong Ajax corners (-3.5)	18.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Jong AZ corners (-3.5)	16.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	37.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	31.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	78.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	71.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	68.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	62.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	58.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	52.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	47.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	37.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	31.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	29.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	21.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	8.9%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.51
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-1	8.0%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.51
2-2	7.1%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
Any other score	6.5%	7.4%	4.7%	1.59×	13.51
0-1	5.6%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
1-0	5.5%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.51
1-3	4.8%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.29
0-0	2.7%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.30
0-2	4.7%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.29
0-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
1-4	2.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.31
2-0	4.5%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.29
2-3	4.2%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
2-4	1.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-0	2.6%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.29
3-2	4.1%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-3	2.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.31
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.31
4-1	2.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
4-2	1.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.31
4-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.1%	13.96×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (2nd half DNB)	52.6%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Jong Ajax (2nd half DNB)	47.4%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax leading at HT (DNB)	51.9%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Jong AZ leading at HT (DNB)	48.1%	44.0%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax or Jong AZ (12)	78.4%	75.5%	77.9%	0.97×	1.32
Jong AZ or draw (X2)	61.4%	63.6%	55.5%	1.15×	1.57
Jong Ajax or draw (1X)	60.2%	63.6%	66.5%	0.96×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax or draw at HT	69.9%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Jong AZ or draw at HT	67.4%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Jong Ajax or Jong AZ at HT	62.7%	61.0%	—	—	1.64

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ or draw (1UP)	61.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Jong Ajax or draw (1UP)	60.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax or Jong AZ in 2nd half	69.9%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
Jong AZ or draw in 2nd half	66.9%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Jong Ajax or draw in 2nd half	63.3%	63.6%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.6%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	43.5%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (DNB)	50.8%	50.9%	43.0%	1.18×	1.97
Jong Ajax (DNB)	49.2%	49.1%	57.0%	0.86×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to score first	49.1%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Jong Ajax to score first	48.3%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
No goal scored	2.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.01

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.1%	58.4%	58.8%	0.99×	1.71
Not both teams to score	31.9%	41.6%	41.2%	1.01×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	59.2%	47.5%	49.5%	0.96×	2.10
Not both score & under 2.5	23.0%	27.9%	28.3%	0.99×	3.59
Both score & under 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	9.5%	0.88×	12.06
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	13.0%	0.64×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	72.6%	80.4%	79.0%	1.02×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	27.4%	19.6%	21.0%	0.93×	5.12

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	59.0%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	41.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	43.3%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Both score 2nd half only	30.0%	28.3%	—	—	3.54
Both score 1st half only	15.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Both score in both halves	11.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.32

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	73.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	26.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	66.7%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
A half without a goal	33.3%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	39.9%	35.1%	37.6%	0.93×	2.85
2-3 goals	39.7%	35.0%	41.0%	0.85×	2.85
0-1 goals	13.8%	17.0%	18.4%	0.92×	5.90
7+ goals	6.6%	7.6%	3.2%	2.38×	13.14

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to score exactly 1	30.2%	33.8%	30.8%	1.10×	2.96
Jong AZ to score exactly 2	26.7%	27.4%	23.6%	1.16×	3.65
Jong AZ to score 3+	26.1%	27.4%	18.6%	1.48×	3.65
Jong AZ to score exactly 0	17.1%	19.5%	27.3%	0.72×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to score exactly 1	30.5%	32.6%	30.2%	1.08×	3.07
Jong Ajax to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.5%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
Jong Ajax to score 3+	25.3%	26.5%	25.6%	1.04×	3.77
Jong Ajax to score exactly 0	17.6%	18.8%	18.7%	1.01×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	37.3%	39.0%	—	—	2.57
Jong Ajax leading at HT	32.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Jong AZ leading at HT	30.1%	32.7%	—	—	3.05

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ -1: 1	60.2%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Jong AZ -1: 2	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Jong AZ -1: X	19.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:1)	61.4%	61.4%	55.5%	1.11×	1.63
Jong Ajax (0:1)	19.7%	17.8%	24.4%	0.73×	5.61
Draw (0:1)	18.9%	17.8%	20.1%	0.88×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:2)	80.3%	82.9%	75.6%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.4%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.10
Jong Ajax (0:2)	8.3%	7.7%	11.8%	0.65×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:3)	91.7%	92.7%	88.2%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.4%	5.8%	5.7%	1.02×	17.28
Jong Ajax (0:3)	2.9%	2.4%	6.3%	0.38×	42.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:4)	97.1%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	81.67
Jong Ajax (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.81

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (1:0)	60.2%	65.2%	66.5%	0.98×	1.53
Jong AZ (1:0)	20.6%	21.7%	15.5%	1.40×	4.62
Draw (1:0)	19.2%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (2:0)	79.4%	80.5%	84.5%	0.95×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	11.8%	10.3%	8.8%	1.16×	9.72
Jong AZ (2:0)	8.8%	6.4%	6.8%	0.95×	15.64

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.7%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
1st half highest scoring	27.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	20.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede	82.9%	81.0%	72.7%	1.11×	1.24
Jong Ajax clean sheet	17.1%	19.0%	27.3%	0.70×	5.26

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 1st half	50.7%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 1st half	49.3%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 2nd half	65.4%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 2nd half	34.6%	33.5%	—	—	2.99

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax over 2.5 corners	86.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Jong Ajax over 3.5 corners	73.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Jong Ajax under 6.5 corners	68.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Jong Ajax over 4.5 corners	58.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Jong Ajax under 5.5 corners	55.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Jong Ajax over 5.5 corners	44.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Jong Ajax under 4.5 corners	41.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Jong Ajax over 6.5 corners	31.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Jong Ajax under 3.5 corners	26.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Jong Ajax under 2.5 corners	13.8%	13.8%	—	—	7.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 3.5 goals	90.1%	92.2%	89.9%	1.03×	1.09
Jong Ajax over 0.5 goals	82.4%	82.2%	81.3%	1.01×	1.22
Jong Ajax under 2.5 goals	74.7%	74.2%	74.4%	1.00×	1.35
Jong Ajax over 1.5 goals	51.9%	53.2%	51.2%	1.04×	1.88
Jong Ajax under 1.5 goals	48.1%	46.8%	48.8%	0.96×	2.14
Jong Ajax over 2.5 goals	25.3%	25.8%	25.6%	1.01×	3.88
Jong Ajax under 0.5 goals	17.6%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.62
Jong Ajax over 3.5 goals	9.9%	7.8%	10.1%	0.77×	12.81

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 1st half	82.7%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 1st half	52.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 1st half	47.3%	49.3%	—	—	2.03
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 1st half	17.3%	15.9%	—	—	6.28

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax scores more in 2nd half	40.1%	41.6%	—	—	2.41
Jong Ajax scores equally in both	33.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Jong Ajax scores more in 1st half	26.7%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (home no bet)	64.8%	60.1%	60.3%	1.00×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	35.2%	39.9%	39.7%	1.00×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax even goals	51.5%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Jong Ajax odd goals	48.5%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.3%	24.4%	—	—	4.11
HT 1-0	17.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 0-1	16.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	12.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
Any other HT score	7.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
HT 2-0	6.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.56
HT 0-2	5.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 2-1	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 1-2	4.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 2-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.30

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	23.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Jong AZ at HT / Jong AZ at FT	22.3%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Jong AZ at FT	13.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	12.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Jong Ajax at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.53
Jong AZ at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Jong Ajax at HT / Jong AZ at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Jong AZ at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to score last	49.1%	46.4%	—	—	2.15
Jong Ajax to score last	48.3%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
No goal scored	2.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.01

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.3%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Jong AZ to lead by 1 at any time	59.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Jong Ajax to lead by 1 at any time	58.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Jong AZ to lead by 2 at any time	29.2%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Jong Ajax to lead by 2 at any time	28.3%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Jong AZ to lead by 3 at any time	11.9%	10.6%	—	—	9.44
Jong Ajax to lead by 3 at any time	11.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.45

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax most corners	46.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Jong AZ most corners	42.5%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.0%	83.4%	86.4%	0.97×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.6%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.9%	72.3%	72.7%	0.99×	1.38
1-4 goals	69.7%	68.8%	74.1%	0.93×	1.45
3-6 goals	61.5%	63.3%	59.3%	1.07×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.6%	59.1%	60.4%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.7%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
1-3 goals	50.8%	53.2%	54.7%	0.97×	1.88
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.29
4-6 goals	39.9%	39.2%	37.6%	1.04×	2.55
2-3 goals	39.7%	39.2%	41.0%	0.95×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.2%	35.2%	31.8%	1.11×	2.84
1-2 goals	29.2%	30.2%	32.9%	0.92×	3.31
5-6 goals	21.0%	24.4%	18.2%	1.34×	4.09
7+ goals	6.6%	8.9%	3.2%	2.78×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ never behind	38.6%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Jong Ajax never behind	37.6%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.6%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.4%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.3%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	86.2%	87.6%	81.6%	1.07×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	85.7%	87.6%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	72.4%	72.5%	78.7%	0.92×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	68.1%	66.3%	62.4%	1.06×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	53.5%	52.5%	59.3%	0.89×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	46.5%	47.5%	40.7%	1.17×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	31.9%	33.7%	37.6%	0.90×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	27.6%	27.5%	21.3%	1.29×	3.64
Over 5.5 goals	14.3%	12.4%	9.0%	1.38×	8.06
Under 1.5 goals	13.8%	12.4%	18.4%	0.67×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	2.7%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.83

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	92.9%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	83.5%	81.1%	89.8%	0.90×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	83.1%	81.1%	77.2%	1.05×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	66.0%	67.5%	73.6%	0.92×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.3%	55.8%	52.0%	1.07×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.7%	44.2%	48.0%	0.92×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	34.0%	32.5%	26.4%	1.23×	3.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	16.9%	18.9%	22.8%	0.83×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	16.5%	18.9%	10.2%	1.85×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	7.1%	7.6%	3.4%	2.24×	13.19

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.0%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.7%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.3%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.7%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.3%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.0%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.3%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	66.2%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	60.7%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	39.3%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	33.8%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.7%	14.7%	—	—	6.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to score in both halves	66.9%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Jong AZ not to score in both halves	66.8%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Jong AZ to score in both halves	33.2%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Jong Ajax to score in both halves	33.1%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	68.1%	59.9%	58.8%	1.02×	1.67
Only Jong AZ scores	14.9%	11.0%	14.0%	0.79×	9.05
Only Jong Ajax scores	14.4%	11.0%	22.6%	0.49×	9.06
Neither team scores	2.7%	4.6%	4.8%	0.97×	21.61

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	21.9%	1.03×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	18.9%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	18.1%	17.5%	19.3%	0.91×	5.73
6 or more goals	14.3%	12.1%	9.0%	1.35×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	13.3%	12.1%	12.4%	0.98×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.1%	12.1%	13.8%	0.88×	8.26
Exactly 0 goals	2.7%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.1%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	24.7%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
No goals in 1st half	23.3%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	18.0%	15.7%	—	—	6.35

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	60.7%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	26.6%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
No goals in 2nd half	12.7%	14.5%	—	—	6.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win both halves	89.3%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Jong AZ not to win both halves	89.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Jong AZ to win both halves	11.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Jong Ajax to win both halves	10.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.35

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to win either half	55.9%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Jong Ajax to win either half	55.0%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Jong Ajax to win neither half	45.0%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Jong AZ to win neither half	44.1%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win to nil	85.6%	88.1%	77.4%	1.14×	1.14
Jong AZ not to win to nil	85.1%	88.1%	86.0%	1.02×	1.14
Jong AZ to win to nil	14.9%	11.9%	14.0%	0.85×	8.40
Jong Ajax to win to nil	14.4%	11.9%	22.6%	0.53×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.6%	24.1%	22.1%	1.09×	4.15
Jong AZ by 1	19.2%	17.0%	18.2%	0.94×	5.87
Jong Ajax by 1	18.9%	17.0%	20.1%	0.85×	5.87
Jong AZ by 2	11.8%	11.8%	8.8%	1.33×	8.51
Jong Ajax by 2	11.4%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.51
Jong AZ by 3+	8.8%	7.2%	6.8%	1.06×	13.90
Jong Ajax by 3+	8.3%	7.2%	11.8%	0.61×	13.91