Jong Ajax v RKC Waalwijk — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Jong Ajax

0–2

18:00 UTC

RKC Waalwijk

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 6h before kick-off

Jong Ajax win

23.7%

model 22.8%

Draw

17.9%

model 19.2%

RKC Waalwijk win

58.4%

model 57.9%

241858

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,262 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 9.2%
1-1 7.8%
1-3 7.0%
0-2 6.7%
2-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	70.8%	Under 2.5	29.2%
BTTS yes	66.9%	BTTS no	33.1%
Jong Ajax 1+	74.9%	Jong Ajax 2+	40.2%
RKC Waalwijk 1+	89.8%	RKC Waalwijk 2+	66.4%

Expected goals 1.38 – 2.28. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

56/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

RKC Waalwijk & over 1.5

1X2 & Over/Under · usually 27%

51.9% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 3009 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.0% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 583 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

RKC Waalwijk carry the stronger rating, 1496 Elo against 1322.
They have had 14 days' rest to Jong Ajax's 11.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

RKC Waalwijk have an estimated 58.4% win probability, against 23.7% for Jong Ajax and 17.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for Jong Ajax and 2.28 for RKC Waalwijk.

Why Jong Ajax

Nothing in the data singles out Jong Ajax.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.9%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why RKC Waalwijk can win

RKC Waalwijk carry the stronger rating, 1496 Elo against 1322. They have had 14 days' rest to Jong Ajax's 11.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Jong Ajax, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for RKC Waalwijk, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Jong Ajax: 51% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. RKC Waalwijk: 53% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

RKC Waalwijk are the model's most likely outcome at 58.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.2%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	231958	1.38–2.28	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	241957	1.49–2.33	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	262153	1.36–2.01	1-2 9%	66%	64%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	262054	1.37–2.05	1-2 9%	66%	65%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to win	52.8%	51.1%	33.4%	1.53×	1.96
Jong Ajax to win	26.2%	27.7%	44.4%	0.62×	3.61
Draw	21.0%	24.6%	22.3%	1.10×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk & both teams score	30.3%	29.2%	19.6%	1.49×	3.42
RKC Waalwijk & not both score	22.4%	21.8%	13.9%	1.57×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	17.9%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.55
Jong Ajax & both teams score	16.0%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.55
Jong Ajax & not both score	10.3%	13.2%	22.8%	0.58×	7.55
Draw & not both score	3.1%	4.9%	4.8%	1.01×	20.38

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk & over 1.5	45.6%	44.8%	27.2%	1.65×	2.23
RKC Waalwijk & over 2.5	38.7%	34.7%	23.6%	1.47×	2.88
RKC Waalwijk & under 3.5	28.2%	25.9%	19.7%	1.32×	3.85
RKC Waalwijk & over 3.5	24.6%	21.6%	13.8%	1.57×	4.63
Jong Ajax & over 1.5	21.3%	21.6%	36.8%	0.59×	4.63
Jong Ajax & over 2.5	18.1%	18.0%	30.6%	0.59×	5.57
Draw & over 1.5	17.9%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.57
Jong Ajax & under 3.5	16.0%	18.0%	25.8%	0.70×	5.57
RKC Waalwijk & under 2.5	14.1%	12.9%	9.9%	1.30×	7.78
Draw & under 2.5	12.2%	12.9%	14.3%	0.90×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	12.2%	12.9%	14.3%	0.90×	7.78
Jong Ajax & over 3.5	10.2%	12.9%	18.7%	0.69×	7.78
Draw & over 2.5	8.8%	8.0%	8.2%	0.97×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	8.8%	8.0%	8.2%	0.97×	12.57
Jong Ajax & under 2.5	8.2%	8.0%	13.9%	0.57×	12.57
RKC Waalwijk & under 1.5	7.2%	8.0%	6.3%	1.26×	12.57
Jong Ajax & under 1.5	5.0%	4.9%	7.7%	0.63×	20.57
Draw & under 1.5	3.1%	4.9%	4.8%	1.00×	20.58

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (1UP)	69.1%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Jong Ajax (1UP)	46.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (2UP)	52.8%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Jong Ajax (2UP)	26.2%	24.7%	—	—	4.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to win 2nd half	46.3%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
2nd half drawn	29.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
Jong Ajax to win 2nd half	23.9%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.1%	74.9%	—	—	1.33
RKC Waalwijk under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
RKC Waalwijk over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
RKC Waalwijk under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.9%	25.1%	—	—	3.99

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.7%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.0%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.0%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.3%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (+2.5)	96.1%	96.3%	88.1%	1.09×	1.04
RKC Waalwijk (+1.5)	88.8%	88.4%	75.6%	1.17×	1.13
RKC Waalwijk (+0.5)	73.8%	73.7%	55.6%	1.33×	1.36
RKC Waalwijk (-0.5)	52.8%	52.1%	33.4%	1.56×	1.92
Jong Ajax (+0.5)	47.2%	47.9%	66.6%	0.72×	2.09
Jong Ajax (-0.5)	26.2%	26.3%	44.4%	0.59×	3.80
Jong Ajax (-1.5)	11.2%	11.6%	24.4%	0.48×	8.59
Jong Ajax (-2.5)	3.9%	3.7%	11.9%	0.31×	26.81

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to concede	74.4%	77.2%	81.4%	0.95×	1.30
RKC Waalwijk clean sheet	25.6%	22.8%	18.6%	1.23×	4.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk clean sheet in 1st half	55.6%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
RKC Waalwijk to concede in 1st half	44.4%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to concede in 2nd half	54.0%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
RKC Waalwijk clean sheet in 2nd half	46.0%	47.1%	—	—	2.13

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk over 2.5 corners	81.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
RKC Waalwijk under 6.5 corners	77.2%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
RKC Waalwijk over 3.5 corners	65.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
RKC Waalwijk under 5.5 corners	65.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
RKC Waalwijk under 4.5 corners	50.4%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
RKC Waalwijk over 4.5 corners	49.6%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
RKC Waalwijk over 5.5 corners	34.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
RKC Waalwijk under 3.5 corners	34.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
RKC Waalwijk over 6.5 corners	22.8%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
RKC Waalwijk under 2.5 corners	19.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk over 0.5 goals	86.6%	87.9%	72.5%	1.21×	1.14
RKC Waalwijk under 3.5 goals	85.5%	87.9%	93.1%	0.94×	1.14
RKC Waalwijk under 2.5 goals	67.4%	67.9%	81.5%	0.83×	1.47
RKC Waalwijk over 1.5 goals	59.7%	58.9%	41.8%	1.41×	1.70
RKC Waalwijk under 1.5 goals	40.3%	41.1%	58.2%	0.71×	2.44
RKC Waalwijk over 2.5 goals	32.6%	32.1%	18.5%	1.74×	3.11
RKC Waalwijk over 3.5 goals	14.5%	12.1%	6.9%	1.74×	8.25
RKC Waalwijk under 0.5 goals	13.4%	12.1%	27.5%	0.44×	8.25

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk under 1.5 in 1st half	80.7%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
RKC Waalwijk over 0.5 in 1st half	55.3%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
RKC Waalwijk under 0.5 in 1st half	44.7%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
RKC Waalwijk over 1.5 in 1st half	19.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk scores more in 2nd half	45.5%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
RKC Waalwijk scores equally in both	29.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
RKC Waalwijk scores more in 1st half	24.6%	22.5%	—	—	4.45

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (away no bet)	55.6%	57.4%	66.5%	0.86×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.4%	42.6%	33.5%	1.27×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk even goals	50.9%	52.8%	57.1%	0.92×	1.90
RKC Waalwijk odd goals	49.1%	47.2%	42.9%	1.10×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.1%	81.9%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	23.9%	18.1%	—	—	5.54

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.63

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.2%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
RKC Waalwijk to score 2+ in a row	49.5%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.6%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Jong Ajax to score 2+ in a row	28.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
RKC Waalwijk to score 3+ in a row	21.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.14
Jong Ajax to score 3+ in a row	7.8%	5.7%	—	—	17.70

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax corners (+3.5)	86.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Jong Ajax corners (+2.5)	80.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
RKC Waalwijk corners (+3.5)	79.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Jong Ajax corners (+1.5)	71.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
RKC Waalwijk corners (+2.5)	70.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
RKC Waalwijk corners (+1.5)	60.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Jong Ajax corners (-1.5)	39.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Jong Ajax corners (-2.5)	29.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
RKC Waalwijk corners (-1.5)	28.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Jong Ajax corners (-3.5)	20.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
RKC Waalwijk corners (-2.5)	20.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
RKC Waalwijk corners (-3.5)	13.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	31.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	74.3%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.1%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	57.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	42.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	35.9%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	25.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	24.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.1%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.53
1-2	9.4%	7.4%	7.4%	0.99×	13.52
0-1	7.2%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.53
0-2	6.9%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.53
2-1	6.4%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.53
2-2	6.4%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.53
Any other score	6.6%	7.4%	4.7%	1.57×	13.53
1-3	6.3%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.53
0-0	3.1%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	57.66
0-3	4.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	57.66
0-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	57.67
1-0	5.0%	1.7%	7.7%	0.23×	57.65
1-4	3.2%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	57.66
2-0	3.2%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	57.66
2-3	4.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	57.66
2-4	2.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	57.67
3-0	1.4%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	57.67
3-1	2.9%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	57.66
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	57.66
3-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	57.67
3-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	57.67
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	57.68
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	57.67
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	57.67
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	57.68
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.97×	57.68

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (2nd half DNB)	65.9%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Jong Ajax (2nd half DNB)	34.1%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk leading at HT (DNB)	60.6%	65.2%	—	—	1.53
Jong Ajax leading at HT (DNB)	39.4%	34.8%	—	—	2.88

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax or RKC Waalwijk (12)	79.0%	75.4%	77.7%	0.97×	1.33
RKC Waalwijk or draw (X2)	73.8%	72.3%	55.6%	1.30×	1.38
Jong Ajax or draw (1X)	47.2%	48.9%	66.6%	0.73×	2.04

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw at HT	75.5%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Jong Ajax or draw at HT	62.4%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Jong Ajax or RKC Waalwijk at HT	62.0%	62.0%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw (1UP)	73.8%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Jong Ajax or draw (1UP)	47.2%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw in 2nd half	76.1%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Jong Ajax or RKC Waalwijk in 2nd half	70.2%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Jong Ajax or draw in 2nd half	53.7%	54.7%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.8%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Neither half drawn	43.2%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (DNB)	66.8%	66.8%	42.9%	1.56×	1.50
Jong Ajax (DNB)	33.2%	33.2%	57.1%	0.58×	3.01

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to score first	57.7%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Jong Ajax to score first	39.2%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	3.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.44

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.2%	56.6%	58.7%	0.96×	1.77
Not both teams to score	35.8%	43.4%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	55.1%	46.8%	49.3%	0.95×	2.14
Not both score & under 2.5	25.4%	33.3%	28.4%	1.17×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	10.5%	12.3%	13.0%	0.94×	8.16
Both score & under 2.5	9.1%	8.4%	9.6%	0.88×	11.93

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.4%	79.9%	79.0%	1.01×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	23.6%	20.1%	21.0%	0.96×	4.97

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	47.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	28.5%	26.6%	—	—	3.75
Both score 1st half only	15.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.43
Both score in both halves	9.3%	6.8%	—	—	14.67

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.5%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.36

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	64.6%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	35.4%	41.1%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.1%	41.9%	41.1%	1.02×	2.39
4-6 goals	38.0%	35.0%	37.3%	0.94×	2.86
0-1 goals	15.3%	20.2%	18.6%	1.09×	4.95
7+ goals	5.6%	7.6%	3.2%	2.36×	13.16

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to score 3+	32.6%	33.7%	18.5%	1.82×	2.97
RKC Waalwijk to score exactly 2	27.1%	27.6%	23.4%	1.18×	3.62
RKC Waalwijk to score exactly 1	26.9%	27.6%	30.8%	0.90×	3.62
RKC Waalwijk to score exactly 0	13.4%	13.0%	27.5%	0.47×	7.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to score exactly 1	34.9%	32.7%	30.4%	1.07×	3.06
Jong Ajax to score exactly 0	25.6%	26.2%	18.6%	1.41×	3.82
Jong Ajax to score exactly 2	23.8%	23.4%	25.8%	0.90×	4.28
Jong Ajax to score 3+	15.8%	19.2%	25.4%	0.75×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.0%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
RKC Waalwijk leading at HT	37.6%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Jong Ajax leading at HT	24.5%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk -1: 1	47.2%	47.3%	—	—	2.12
RKC Waalwijk -1: 2	30.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
RKC Waalwijk -1: X	22.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (0:1)	73.8%	71.0%	55.6%	1.28×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	15.1%	17.7%	20.1%	0.88×	5.64
Jong Ajax (0:1)	11.2%	13.9%	24.4%	0.57×	7.19

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (0:2)	88.8%	86.9%	75.6%	1.15×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.3%	7.7%	12.7%	0.61×	13.01
Jong Ajax (0:2)	3.9%	3.8%	11.9%	0.32×	26.44

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (0:3)	96.1%	96.6%	88.1%	1.10×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	5.7%	0.41×	42.34
Jong Ajax (0:3)	1.1%	2.4%	6.3%	0.37×	42.41

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (0:4)	98.9%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Jong Ajax (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.80
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	81.74

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (1:0)	47.2%	51.0%	66.6%	0.77×	1.96
RKC Waalwijk (1:0)	30.7%	28.9%	15.4%	1.88×	3.46
Draw (1:0)	22.1%	21.7%	18.1%	1.20×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (2:0)	69.3%	72.7%	84.6%	0.86×	1.38
Draw (2:0)	15.9%	15.4%	8.8%	1.75×	6.49
RKC Waalwijk (2:0)	14.8%	10.4%	6.7%	1.56×	9.59

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.6%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	21.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede	86.6%	86.4%	72.5%	1.19×	1.16
Jong Ajax clean sheet	13.4%	13.6%	27.5%	0.50×	7.33

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 1st half	55.3%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 1st half	44.7%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 2nd half	70.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 2nd half	29.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.63

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax over 2.5 corners	85.7%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Jong Ajax over 3.5 corners	72.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Jong Ajax under 6.5 corners	69.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Jong Ajax over 4.5 corners	57.9%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Jong Ajax under 5.5 corners	56.9%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Jong Ajax over 5.5 corners	43.1%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Jong Ajax under 4.5 corners	42.1%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Jong Ajax over 6.5 corners	30.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Jong Ajax under 3.5 corners	27.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Jong Ajax under 2.5 corners	14.3%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 3.5 goals	95.0%	96.3%	89.8%	1.07×	1.04
Jong Ajax under 2.5 goals	84.2%	81.9%	74.6%	1.10×	1.22
Jong Ajax over 0.5 goals	74.4%	74.3%	81.4%	0.91×	1.35
Jong Ajax under 1.5 goals	60.4%	63.3%	48.9%	1.29×	1.58
Jong Ajax over 1.5 goals	39.6%	36.7%	51.1%	0.72×	2.72
Jong Ajax under 0.5 goals	25.6%	25.7%	18.6%	1.38×	3.89
Jong Ajax over 2.5 goals	15.8%	18.1%	25.4%	0.71×	5.54
Jong Ajax over 3.5 goals	5.0%	3.7%	10.2%	0.37×	26.93

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 1st half	88.3%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 1st half	55.6%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 1st half	44.4%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 1st half	11.7%	10.2%	—	—	9.83

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax scores equally in both	38.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Jong Ajax scores more in 2nd half	36.5%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Jong Ajax scores more in 1st half	24.9%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (home no bet)	71.6%	66.2%	59.9%	1.10×	1.51
Draw (home no bet)	28.4%	33.8%	40.1%	0.84×	2.96

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax even goals	53.3%	50.4%	51.7%	0.97×	1.98
Jong Ajax odd goals	46.7%	49.6%	48.3%	1.03×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	20.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 1-0	14.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-1	11.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-2	8.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
Any other HT score	6.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 2-0	4.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.39
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.60

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk at HT / RKC Waalwijk at FT	30.9%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Draw at HT / RKC Waalwijk at FT	17.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Jong Ajax at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	15.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.0%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	9.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.61
Jong Ajax at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
RKC Waalwijk at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Jong Ajax at HT / RKC Waalwijk at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.76
RKC Waalwijk at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.84

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to score last	57.7%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Jong Ajax to score last	39.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	3.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.44

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.9%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
RKC Waalwijk to lead by 1 at any time	69.1%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.6%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Jong Ajax to lead by 1 at any time	46.9%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
RKC Waalwijk to lead by 2 at any time	39.1%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
RKC Waalwijk to lead by 3 at any time	18.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Jong Ajax to lead by 2 at any time	18.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Jong Ajax to lead by 3 at any time	5.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.18

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax most corners	50.3%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
RKC Waalwijk most corners	38.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.3%	83.3%	86.2%	0.97×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.1%	78.5%	78.3%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.3%	72.5%	1.00×	1.38
1-4 goals	71.8%	72.3%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
3-6 goals	60.0%	59.3%	59.1%	1.00×	1.69
2-4 goals	59.6%	59.3%	60.3%	0.98×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.3%	53.4%	54.8%	0.97×	1.87
3-5 goals	52.9%	53.4%	53.2%	1.00×	1.87
2-3 goals	41.1%	43.6%	41.1%	1.06×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.1%	1.06×	2.30
4-6 goals	38.0%	39.3%	37.3%	1.05×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.4%	35.3%	33.1%	1.07×	2.83
4-5 goals	31.0%	35.3%	31.5%	1.12×	2.83
5-6 goals	19.5%	18.9%	18.1%	1.04×	5.30
7+ goals	5.6%	9.0%	3.2%	2.78×	11.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk never behind	50.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Jong Ajax never behind	27.8%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	51.0%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.0%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.9%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.7%	82.2%	81.4%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	74.9%	72.4%	78.8%	0.92×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	65.5%	66.0%	62.2%	1.06×	1.52
Under 3.5 goals	56.4%	58.5%	59.6%	0.98×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	43.6%	41.5%	40.4%	1.03×	2.41
Under 2.5 goals	34.5%	34.0%	37.8%	0.90×	2.94
Over 4.5 goals	25.1%	27.6%	21.2%	1.30×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	15.3%	17.8%	18.6%	0.96×	5.61
Over 5.5 goals	12.6%	12.6%	9.1%	1.39×	7.97
Under 0.5 goals	3.1%	4.6%	4.8%	0.95×	21.76

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.0%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	85.6%	86.6%	89.7%	0.97×	1.16
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.1%	80.5%	77.0%	1.05×	1.24
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	69.2%	67.7%	73.7%	0.92×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.8%	55.2%	51.7%	1.07×	1.81
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.2%	44.8%	48.3%	0.93×	2.23
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.8%	32.3%	26.3%	1.23×	3.09
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	18.9%	19.5%	23.0%	0.85×	5.12
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	14.4%	13.4%	10.3%	1.30×	7.47
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.0%	7.6%	3.4%	2.22×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.2%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.6%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.8%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	68.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	58.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.7%	14.7%	—	—	6.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to score in both halves	76.0%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
RKC Waalwijk not to score in both halves	61.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
RKC Waalwijk to score in both halves	38.7%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Jong Ajax to score in both halves	24.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	64.2%	60.3%	58.7%	1.03×	1.66
Only RKC Waalwijk scores	22.4%	22.0%	13.9%	1.58×	4.54
Only Jong Ajax scores	10.3%	11.1%	22.8%	0.49×	9.02
Neither team scores	3.1%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.64

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.4%	21.8%	1.03×	4.46
Exactly 2 goals	19.2%	17.6%	19.4%	0.91×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	18.5%	17.6%	19.4%	0.91×	5.70
Exactly 5 goals	12.5%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.30
6 or more goals	12.6%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.30
Exactly 1 goals	12.2%	12.1%	13.9%	0.87×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	3.1%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.24

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.7%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
No goals in 1st half	24.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
2 goals in 1st half	24.0%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
3+ goals in 1st half	16.4%	15.2%	—	—	6.57

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	58.9%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.5%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	13.7%	14.5%	—	—	6.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win both halves	94.2%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
RKC Waalwijk not to win both halves	82.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
RKC Waalwijk to win both halves	17.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.33
Jong Ajax to win both halves	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.71

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to win either half	66.5%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Jong Ajax to win neither half	57.4%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Jong Ajax to win either half	42.6%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
RKC Waalwijk to win neither half	33.5%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win to nil	89.7%	87.9%	77.2%	1.14×	1.14
RKC Waalwijk not to win to nil	77.6%	78.4%	86.1%	0.91×	1.28
RKC Waalwijk to win to nil	22.4%	21.6%	13.9%	1.56×	4.62
Jong Ajax to win to nil	10.3%	12.1%	22.8%	0.53×	8.30

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk by 1	22.1%	24.2%	18.1%	1.33×	4.14
Draw	21.0%	24.2%	22.3%	1.08×	4.14
RKC Waalwijk by 2	15.9%	16.9%	8.8%	1.92×	5.92
Jong Ajax by 1	15.1%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.92
RKC Waalwijk by 3+	14.8%	11.7%	6.7%	1.75×	8.52
Jong Ajax by 2	7.3%	7.3%	12.7%	0.57×	13.76
Jong Ajax by 3+	3.9%	2.8%	11.9%	0.24×	35.57

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.