Jong Ajax v Vitesse — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 2 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 06:01 UTC

Jong Ajax

19:00 UTC

Vitesse

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,389h before kick-off

Jong Ajax win

31.0%

model 30.4%

Draw

22.4%

model 21.1%

Vitesse win

46.6%

model 48.5%

312247

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 9.1%
1-1 8.9%
2-1 7.0%
2-2 6.8%
0-1 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	66.5%	Under 2.5	33.5%
BTTS yes	65.9%	BTTS no	34.1%
Jong Ajax 1+	77.6%	Jong Ajax 2+	44.0%
Vitesse 1+	85.5%	Vitesse 2+	57.6%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.93. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

54/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Vitesse carry the stronger rating, 1528 Elo against 1322.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Vitesse have an estimated 46.6% win probability, against 31.0% for Jong Ajax and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.49 for Jong Ajax and 1.93 for Vitesse.

Why Jong Ajax

Nothing in the data singles out Jong Ajax.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Vitesse can win

Vitesse carry the stronger rating, 1528 Elo against 1322.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Jong Ajax, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vitesse, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Jong Ajax: 51% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vitesse: 45% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 18.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Vitesse are the model's most likely outcome at 46.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.1%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	292249	1.43–1.91	1-1 9%	65%	65%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to win	49.2%	47.5%	33.4%	1.42×	2.11
Jong Ajax to win	29.2%	27.9%	44.4%	0.63×	3.59
Draw	21.6%	24.5%	22.3%	1.10×	4.08

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse & both teams score	28.5%	25.2%	19.6%	1.28×	3.98
Vitesse & not both score	20.7%	21.8%	13.9%	1.57×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	17.9%	17.6%	1.02×	5.58
Jong Ajax & both teams score	17.7%	17.9%	21.7%	0.83×	5.58
Jong Ajax & not both score	11.6%	13.3%	22.8%	0.58×	7.54
Draw & not both score	3.2%	4.9%	4.8%	1.01×	20.37

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse & over 1.5	42.1%	40.3%	27.2%	1.48×	2.48
Vitesse & over 2.5	35.6%	34.8%	23.6%	1.48×	2.87
Vitesse & under 3.5	26.9%	26.0%	19.7%	1.32×	3.84
Jong Ajax & over 1.5	23.9%	21.6%	36.8%	0.59×	4.63
Vitesse & over 3.5	22.3%	21.6%	13.8%	1.57×	4.63
Jong Ajax & over 2.5	20.2%	21.6%	30.6%	0.70×	4.63
Jong Ajax & under 3.5	17.6%	18.0%	25.8%	0.70×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Vitesse & under 2.5	13.5%	12.9%	9.9%	1.30×	7.76
Draw & under 2.5	12.6%	12.9%	14.3%	0.90×	7.76
Draw & under 3.5	12.6%	12.9%	14.3%	0.90×	7.76
Jong Ajax & over 3.5	11.6%	12.9%	18.7%	0.69×	7.76
Jong Ajax & under 2.5	9.0%	7.9%	13.9%	0.57×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	9.0%	7.9%	8.2%	0.97×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	9.0%	7.9%	8.2%	0.97×	12.65
Vitesse & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.65
Jong Ajax & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	3.2%	4.8%	4.8%	0.99×	20.86

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (1UP)	66.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Jong Ajax (1UP)	49.7%	43.4%	—	—	2.30

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (2UP)	49.2%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Jong Ajax (2UP)	29.2%	24.9%	—	—	4.01

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to win 2nd half	43.5%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
2nd half drawn	30.4%	34.4%	—	—	2.90
Jong Ajax to win 2nd half	26.1%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.2%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Vitesse under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.2%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Vitesse over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.8%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Vitesse under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.8%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.3%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.8%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.2%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.7%	17.7%	—	—	5.66

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (+2.5)	95.3%	96.3%	88.1%	1.09×	1.04
Vitesse (+1.5)	87.0%	88.5%	75.6%	1.17×	1.13
Vitesse (+0.5)	70.8%	73.7%	55.6%	1.33×	1.36
Jong Ajax (+0.5)	50.8%	52.4%	66.6%	0.79×	1.91
Vitesse (-0.5)	49.2%	47.6%	33.4%	1.43×	2.10
Jong Ajax (-0.5)	29.2%	26.3%	44.4%	0.59×	3.81
Jong Ajax (-1.5)	13.0%	11.5%	24.4%	0.47×	8.73
Jong Ajax (-2.5)	4.7%	3.7%	11.9%	0.31×	26.76

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to concede	76.1%	78.9%	81.4%	0.97×	1.27
Vitesse clean sheet	23.9%	21.1%	18.6%	1.13×	4.74

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to concede in 1st half	46.0%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Vitesse clean sheet in 1st half	54.0%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to concede in 2nd half	55.8%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Vitesse clean sheet in 2nd half	44.2%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse over 2.5 corners	86.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Vitesse over 3.5 corners	73.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Vitesse under 6.5 corners	68.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Vitesse over 4.5 corners	59.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Vitesse under 5.5 corners	55.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Vitesse over 5.5 corners	44.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vitesse under 4.5 corners	40.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vitesse over 6.5 corners	31.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Vitesse under 3.5 corners	26.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Vitesse under 2.5 corners	13.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse under 3.5 goals	87.3%	87.9%	93.1%	0.94×	1.14
Vitesse over 0.5 goals	85.2%	87.8%	72.5%	1.21×	1.14
Vitesse under 2.5 goals	70.1%	71.8%	81.5%	0.88×	1.39
Vitesse over 1.5 goals	56.9%	59.4%	41.8%	1.42×	1.68
Vitesse under 1.5 goals	43.1%	40.6%	58.2%	0.70×	2.46
Vitesse over 2.5 goals	29.9%	28.2%	18.5%	1.52×	3.55
Vitesse under 0.5 goals	14.8%	12.2%	27.5%	0.44×	8.22
Vitesse over 3.5 goals	12.7%	12.1%	6.9%	1.75×	8.23

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse under 1.5 in 1st half	82.2%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Vitesse over 0.5 in 1st half	53.4%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Vitesse under 0.5 in 1st half	46.6%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Vitesse over 1.5 in 1st half	17.8%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse scores more in 2nd half	44.7%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Vitesse scores equally in both	30.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.94
Vitesse scores more in 1st half	24.4%	22.5%	—	—	4.45

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (away no bet)	57.5%	57.3%	66.5%	0.86×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.5%	42.7%	33.5%	1.28×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse even goals	51.1%	52.8%	57.1%	0.92×	1.90
Vitesse odd goals	48.9%	47.2%	42.9%	1.10×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.6%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	23.4%	18.0%	—	—	5.55

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.9%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.1%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.4%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Vitesse to score 2+ in a row	46.4%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Jong Ajax to score 2+ in a row	30.3%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.4%	25.0%	—	—	3.99
Vitesse to score 3+ in a row	19.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
Jong Ajax to score 3+ in a row	9.0%	5.7%	—	—	17.61

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse corners (+3.5)	87.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Vitesse corners (+2.5)	80.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Jong Ajax corners (+3.5)	78.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Vitesse corners (+1.5)	72.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Jong Ajax corners (+2.5)	69.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Jong Ajax corners (+1.5)	59.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Vitesse corners (-1.5)	40.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vitesse corners (-2.5)	30.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Jong Ajax corners (-1.5)	27.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Vitesse corners (-3.5)	21.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Jong Ajax corners (-2.5)	19.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Jong Ajax corners (-3.5)	12.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.95
12+ corners	33.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	31.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.9%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	74.9%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	35.3%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	33.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	25.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	25.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.65

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.4%	7.4%	9.6%	0.78×	13.50
1-2	9.2%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.50
0-1	7.1%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.50
2-1	6.9%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.50
2-2	6.6%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.50
0-2	6.5%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.50
1-0	5.4%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.50
1-3	5.9%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.50
Any other score	6.0%	7.4%	4.7%	1.57×	13.50
0-0	3.2%	1.7%	4.8%	0.35×	58.30
0-3	4.1%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
0-4	2.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.31
1-4	2.8%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.30
2-0	3.6%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.30
2-3	4.2%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
2-4	2.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
3-0	1.7%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.30
3-2	3.2%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.30
3-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
3-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.31
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.32
4-1	1.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.26×	58.31
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.32
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.82×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (2nd half DNB)	62.5%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Jong Ajax (2nd half DNB)	37.5%	38.8%	—	—	2.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse leading at HT (DNB)	57.3%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Jong Ajax leading at HT (DNB)	42.7%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax or Vitesse (12)	78.4%	75.5%	77.7%	0.97×	1.32
Vitesse or draw (X2)	70.8%	72.1%	55.6%	1.30×	1.39
Jong Ajax or draw (1X)	50.8%	52.5%	66.6%	0.79×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or draw at HT	73.7%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Jong Ajax or draw at HT	64.7%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Jong Ajax or Vitesse at HT	61.6%	62.0%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or draw (1UP)	70.8%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Jong Ajax or draw (1UP)	50.8%	59.0%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or draw in 2nd half	73.9%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Jong Ajax or Vitesse in 2nd half	69.6%	65.6%	—	—	1.53
Jong Ajax or draw in 2nd half	56.5%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.5%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Neither half drawn	42.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (DNB)	62.7%	62.8%	42.9%	1.46×	1.59
Jong Ajax (DNB)	37.3%	37.2%	57.1%	0.65×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to score first	55.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Jong Ajax to score first	41.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	3.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.5%	56.6%	58.7%	0.96×	1.77
Not both teams to score	35.5%	43.4%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	55.2%	47.3%	49.3%	0.96×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	25.8%	33.5%	28.4%	1.18×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	9.7%	8.3%	13.0%	0.64×	11.99
Both score & under 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	9.6%	0.87×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.2%	79.8%	79.0%	1.01×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	23.8%	20.2%	21.0%	0.96×	4.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	46.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	28.6%	26.6%	—	—	3.75
Both score 1st half only	15.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.43
Both score in both halves	9.3%	6.8%	—	—	14.66

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.5%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.36

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	64.2%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	35.8%	41.1%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.4%	42.0%	41.1%	1.02×	2.38
4-6 goals	37.5%	35.1%	37.3%	0.94×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.7%	20.3%	18.6%	1.09×	4.93
7+ goals	5.4%	7.6%	3.2%	2.35×	13.20

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to score 3+	29.9%	27.4%	18.5%	1.48×	3.65
Vitesse to score exactly 1	28.3%	27.4%	30.8%	0.89×	3.65
Vitesse to score exactly 2	27.0%	27.4%	23.4%	1.17×	3.65
Vitesse to score exactly 0	14.8%	12.9%	27.5%	0.47×	7.78

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to score exactly 1	34.2%	32.6%	30.4%	1.07×	3.07
Jong Ajax to score exactly 2	24.5%	23.2%	25.8%	0.90×	4.30
Jong Ajax to score exactly 0	23.9%	23.2%	18.6%	1.25×	4.30
Jong Ajax to score 3+	17.4%	18.9%	25.4%	0.74×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.4%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Vitesse leading at HT	35.3%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Jong Ajax leading at HT	26.3%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse -1: 1	50.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Vitesse -1: 2	27.5%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Vitesse -1: X	21.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (0:1)	70.8%	71.1%	55.6%	1.28×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	16.3%	17.8%	20.1%	0.88×	5.63
Jong Ajax (0:1)	13.0%	13.8%	24.4%	0.57×	7.24

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (0:2)	87.0%	87.0%	75.6%	1.15×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.3%	7.7%	12.7%	0.61×	12.97
Jong Ajax (0:2)	4.7%	3.8%	11.9%	0.32×	26.33

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (0:3)	95.3%	96.6%	88.1%	1.10×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	5.7%	0.42×	42.08
Jong Ajax (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	6.3%	0.37×	42.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	83.63
Jong Ajax (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	83.71

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (1:0)	50.8%	53.9%	66.6%	0.81×	1.86
Vitesse (1:0)	27.5%	25.1%	15.4%	1.63×	3.98
Draw (1:0)	21.6%	21.8%	18.1%	1.21×	4.58

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (2:0)	72.5%	76.4%	84.6%	0.90×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	14.8%	10.4%	8.8%	1.18×	9.60
Vitesse (2:0)	12.8%	10.4%	6.7%	1.55×	9.62

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.3%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	21.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede	85.2%	85.9%	72.5%	1.18×	1.17
Jong Ajax clean sheet	14.8%	14.1%	27.5%	0.51×	7.07

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 1st half	53.4%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 1st half	46.6%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 2nd half	68.2%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 2nd half	31.8%	31.6%	—	—	3.16

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax over 2.5 corners	80.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Jong Ajax under 6.5 corners	77.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Jong Ajax over 3.5 corners	65.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Jong Ajax under 5.5 corners	65.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Jong Ajax under 4.5 corners	50.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Jong Ajax over 4.5 corners	49.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Jong Ajax under 3.5 corners	34.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Jong Ajax over 5.5 corners	34.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Jong Ajax over 6.5 corners	22.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Jong Ajax under 2.5 corners	19.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 3.5 goals	94.3%	92.2%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Jong Ajax under 2.5 goals	82.6%	82.1%	74.6%	1.10×	1.22
Jong Ajax over 0.5 goals	76.1%	77.7%	81.4%	0.95×	1.29
Jong Ajax under 1.5 goals	58.1%	58.8%	48.9%	1.20×	1.70
Jong Ajax over 1.5 goals	41.9%	41.2%	51.1%	0.81×	2.43
Jong Ajax under 0.5 goals	23.9%	22.3%	18.6%	1.20×	4.49
Jong Ajax over 2.5 goals	17.4%	17.9%	25.4%	0.70×	5.59
Jong Ajax over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.8%	10.2%	0.76×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 1st half	46.0%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 1st half	54.0%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 1st half	12.7%	10.2%	—	—	9.78

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax scores equally in both	37.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
Jong Ajax scores more in 2nd half	37.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
Jong Ajax scores more in 1st half	25.3%	28.0%	—	—	3.58

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (home no bet)	69.5%	64.1%	59.9%	1.07×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	30.5%	35.9%	40.1%	0.90×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax even goals	52.9%	50.6%	51.7%	0.98×	1.98
Jong Ajax odd goals	47.1%	49.4%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.1%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
HT 0-1	19.3%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-0	15.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	11.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-2	7.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
Any other HT score	6.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 2-0	4.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.35
HT 1-2	4.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.37
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.44
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.60

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse at HT / Vitesse at FT	28.4%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Jong Ajax at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	16.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Vitesse at FT	16.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	10.2%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Jong Ajax at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
Vitesse at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Jong Ajax at HT / Vitesse at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Vitesse at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.84

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to score last	55.3%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Jong Ajax to score last	41.5%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	3.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.8%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Vitesse to lead by 1 at any time	66.3%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Jong Ajax to lead by 1 at any time	49.7%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Vitesse to lead by 2 at any time	35.9%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Jong Ajax to lead by 2 at any time	20.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Vitesse to lead by 3 at any time	16.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Jong Ajax to lead by 3 at any time	6.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.13

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse most corners	51.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Jong Ajax most corners	37.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.6%	83.4%	86.2%	0.97×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.0%	78.6%	78.3%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	72.3%	72.4%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	72.5%	1.00×	1.38
2-4 goals	59.8%	59.1%	60.3%	0.98×	1.69
3-6 goals	59.5%	59.1%	59.1%	1.00×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.9%	53.2%	54.8%	0.97×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.7%	53.1%	53.2%	1.00×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.4%	43.6%	41.1%	1.06×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.1%	1.06×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.5%	39.2%	37.3%	1.05×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.9%	35.3%	33.1%	1.07×	2.83
4-5 goals	30.7%	35.3%	31.5%	1.12×	2.83
5-6 goals	19.1%	18.7%	18.1%	1.03×	5.34
7+ goals	5.4%	8.8%	3.2%	2.74×	11.33

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse never behind	47.1%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Jong Ajax never behind	30.5%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	49.6%	1.02×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	50.4%	0.98×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.9%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.2%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.8%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.3%	82.3%	81.4%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.5%	77.3%	78.8%	0.98×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.9%	61.8%	62.2%	0.99×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.1%	58.7%	59.6%	0.99×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	42.9%	41.3%	40.4%	1.02×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.1%	38.2%	37.8%	1.01×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	24.5%	22.7%	21.2%	1.07×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	15.7%	17.7%	18.6%	0.95×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	9.1%	1.37×	8.08
Under 0.5 goals	3.2%	4.6%	4.8%	0.94×	21.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.2%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.1%	86.7%	89.7%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.5%	81.0%	77.0%	1.05×	1.24
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.0%	67.5%	73.7%	0.92×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.0%	52.0%	51.7%	1.01×	1.92
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.0%	48.0%	48.3%	0.99×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.0%	32.5%	26.3%	1.24×	3.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.5%	19.0%	23.0%	0.82×	5.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.9%	13.3%	10.3%	1.29×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.8%	7.6%	3.4%	2.22×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.8%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.9%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.9%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.1%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.1%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.2%	13.7%	—	—	7.31

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.1%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	68.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	58.3%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.9%	14.7%	—	—	6.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to score in both halves	74.4%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Vitesse not to score in both halves	63.5%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Vitesse to score in both halves	36.5%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Jong Ajax to score in both halves	25.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	64.5%	60.3%	58.7%	1.03×	1.66
Only Vitesse scores	20.7%	22.3%	13.9%	1.60×	4.49
Only Jong Ajax scores	11.6%	11.0%	22.8%	0.48×	9.11
Neither team scores	3.2%	4.7%	4.8%	0.96×	21.47

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	21.8%	1.03×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.4%	17.4%	19.4%	0.90×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.4%	17.4%	19.4%	0.90×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.5%	12.1%	13.9%	0.87×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	12.3%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.28
6 or more goals	12.2%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	3.2%	4.5%	4.8%	0.92×	22.43

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.8%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
No goals in 1st half	25.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
2 goals in 1st half	23.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
3+ goals in 1st half	16.2%	15.2%	—	—	6.58

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	58.3%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.8%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	13.9%	14.5%	—	—	6.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win both halves	93.2%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Vitesse not to win both halves	84.7%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Vitesse to win both halves	15.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Jong Ajax to win both halves	6.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.64

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to win either half	63.5%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Jong Ajax to win neither half	54.4%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Jong Ajax to win either half	45.6%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Vitesse to win neither half	36.5%	34.9%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win to nil	88.4%	88.2%	77.2%	1.14×	1.13
Vitesse not to win to nil	79.3%	78.1%	86.1%	0.91×	1.28
Vitesse to win to nil	20.7%	21.9%	13.9%	1.58×	4.57
Jong Ajax to win to nil	11.6%	11.8%	22.8%	0.52×	8.45

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse by 1	21.6%	24.2%	18.1%	1.33×	4.14
Draw	21.6%	24.2%	22.3%	1.08×	4.14
Jong Ajax by 1	16.3%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.91
Vitesse by 2	14.8%	11.8%	8.8%	1.34×	8.49
Vitesse by 3+	12.8%	11.8%	6.7%	1.76×	8.49
Jong Ajax by 2	8.3%	7.2%	12.7%	0.57×	13.80
Jong Ajax by 3+	4.7%	2.7%	11.9%	0.23×	36.61