Jong AZ v FC Den Bosch — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 9 October 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627
NED-Eerste Divisie
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 8.5%
- 2-1 8.2%
- 1-2 7.7%
- 2-2 7.1%
- 1-0 5.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 69.4% | Under 2.5 | 30.6% |
| BTTS yes | 68.9% | BTTS no | 31.1% |
| Jong AZ 1+ | 84.2% | Jong AZ 2+ | 55.1% |
| FC Den Bosch 1+ | 82.3% | FC Den Bosch 2+ | 51.7% |
Expected goals 1.85 – 1.73. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Jong AZ.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Jong AZ have an estimated 40.5% win probability, against 37.0% for FC Den Bosch and 22.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.85 for Jong AZ and 1.73 for FC Den Bosch.
Why Jong AZ
Nothing in the data singles out Jong AZ.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.85 to 1.73. Draws run at 22% in this competition.
Why FC Den Bosch can win
Nothing in the data singles out FC Den Bosch.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Jong AZ, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Den Bosch, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Jong AZ: 53% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Den Bosch: 49% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Jong AZ's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Jong AZ are the model's most likely outcome at 40.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 8.5%. Confidence 52/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.82–1.91 | 1-2 8% | 72% | 71% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.