Jong PSV v FC Den Bosch — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Jong PSV

3–1

18:00 UTC

FC Den Bosch

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 7 Sep, 07:51 · 10h before kick-off

Jong PSV win

49.5%

model 46.9%

Draw

21.7%

model 21.4%

FC Den Bosch win

28.8%

model 31.7%

492229

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.1%
2-1 9.0%
1-2 7.2%
1-0 6.8%
2-2 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.9%	Under 2.5	34.1%
BTTS yes	65.6%	BTTS no	34.4%
Jong PSV 1+	84.7%	Jong PSV 2+	56.1%
FC Den Bosch 1+	77.9%	FC Den Bosch 2+	44.6%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

53/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 78%

78.9% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2095 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Jong PSV.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Jong PSV have an estimated 49.5% win probability, against 28.8% for FC Den Bosch and 21.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.88 for Jong PSV and 1.51 for FC Den Bosch.

Why Jong PSV

Nothing in the data singles out Jong PSV.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.7%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why FC Den Bosch can win

They have had 10 days' rest to Jong PSV's 7.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Jong PSV, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Den Bosch, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Jong PSV: 57% possession, 17.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Den Bosch: 49% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Jong PSV's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Jong PSV are the model's most likely outcome at 49.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.1%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	472132	1.88–1.51	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	452134	1.86–1.57	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	432235	1.80–1.61	1-1 9%	66%	66%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	442135	1.84–1.62	1-1 9%	67%	67%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV to win	43.0%	43.0%	44.4%	0.97×	2.32
FC Den Bosch to win	35.4%	36.4%	33.5%	1.09×	2.75
Draw	21.6%	24.4%	22.3%	1.10×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV & both teams score	25.9%	25.2%	21.6%	1.16×	3.97
FC Den Bosch & both teams score	21.6%	21.9%	19.7%	1.11×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	17.9%	17.7%	1.01×	5.58
Jong PSV & not both score	17.1%	17.9%	22.9%	0.78×	5.58
FC Den Bosch & not both score	13.7%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.54
Draw & not both score	2.8%	4.9%	4.7%	1.03×	20.60

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV & over 1.5	36.6%	34.9%	36.8%	0.95×	2.87
Jong PSV & over 2.5	31.3%	30.9%	30.6%	1.01×	3.24
FC Den Bosch & over 1.5	29.6%	26.0%	27.2%	0.96×	3.84
FC Den Bosch & over 2.5	25.3%	26.0%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
Jong PSV & under 3.5	23.6%	21.7%	25.9%	0.84×	4.62
FC Den Bosch & under 3.5	20.1%	21.7%	19.8%	1.09×	4.62
Jong PSV & over 3.5	19.5%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	17.7%	1.02×	5.56
FC Den Bosch & over 3.5	15.2%	18.0%	13.8%	1.30×	5.56
Jong PSV & under 2.5	11.8%	12.9%	13.9%	0.92×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	12.0%	12.9%	14.2%	0.91×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	12.0%	12.9%	14.2%	0.91×	7.77
FC Den Bosch & under 2.5	10.1%	12.9%	10.0%	1.29×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	9.6%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.69
Jong PSV & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.70
FC Den Bosch & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.3%	1.24×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	2.8%	4.8%	4.7%	1.01×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV (1UP)	61.9%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
FC Den Bosch (1UP)	55.5%	58.0%	—	—	1.73

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV (2UP)	43.0%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
FC Den Bosch (2UP)	35.4%	37.0%	—	—	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV to win 2nd half	36.2%	36.0%	—	—	2.77
FC Den Bosch to win 2nd half	33.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
2nd half drawn	30.6%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch (+2.5)	90.1%	92.1%	88.1%	1.05×	1.09
FC Den Bosch (+1.5)	77.3%	78.4%	75.6%	1.04×	1.28
Jong PSV (+0.5)	64.6%	62.9%	66.5%	0.95×	1.59
FC Den Bosch (+0.5)	57.0%	57.0%	55.6%	1.03×	1.75
Jong PSV (-0.5)	43.0%	43.0%	44.4%	0.97×	2.33
FC Den Bosch (-0.5)	35.4%	37.1%	33.5%	1.11×	2.70
Jong PSV (-1.5)	22.7%	21.6%	24.4%	0.88×	4.64
Jong PSV (-2.5)	9.9%	7.9%	11.9%	0.66×	12.61

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede	83.4%	81.3%	81.5%	1.00×	1.23
FC Den Bosch clean sheet	16.6%	18.7%	18.5%	1.01×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch clean sheet in 1st half	46.2%	50.6%	—	—	1.97
FC Den Bosch to concede in 1st half	53.8%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 corners	86.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 corners	74.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Den Bosch under 6.5 corners	67.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
FC Den Bosch over 4.5 corners	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
FC Den Bosch under 5.5 corners	54.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
FC Den Bosch over 5.5 corners	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
FC Den Bosch under 4.5 corners	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Den Bosch over 6.5 corners	32.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 corners	25.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 corners	13.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 goals	80.1%	81.4%	72.5%	1.12×	1.23
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 goals	78.0%	76.2%	81.5%	0.94×	1.31
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 goals	52.1%	53.7%	58.1%	0.92×	1.86
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 goals	47.9%	46.3%	41.9%	1.11×	2.16
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 goals	22.0%	23.8%	18.5%	1.28×	4.21
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 goals	20.0%	18.6%	27.5%	0.68×	5.37
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	7.0%	1.10×	13.03

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 in 1st half	86.3%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 in 1st half	52.5%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 in 1st half	47.5%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 in 1st half	13.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.08

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV (away no bet)	66.6%	66.3%	66.6%	1.00×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.4%	33.7%	33.4%	1.01×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch even goals	52.0%	52.8%	57.1%	0.92×	1.89
FC Den Bosch odd goals	48.0%	47.2%	42.9%	1.10×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	75.5%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.5%	17.9%	—	—	5.57

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.0%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Jong PSV to score 2+ in a row	42.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
FC Den Bosch to score 2+ in a row	36.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.3%	25.0%	—	—	3.99
Jong PSV to score 3+ in a row	16.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
FC Den Bosch to score 3+ in a row	12.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.22

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV corners (+3.5)	83.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
FC Den Bosch corners (+3.5)	78.6%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Jong PSV corners (+2.5)	77.0%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
FC Den Bosch corners (+2.5)	70.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Jong PSV corners (+1.5)	68.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
FC Den Bosch corners (+1.5)	61.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Jong PSV corners (-1.5)	38.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
FC Den Bosch corners (-1.5)	31.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Jong PSV corners (-2.5)	29.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
FC Den Bosch corners (-2.5)	23.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Jong PSV corners (-3.5)	21.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
FC Den Bosch corners (-3.5)	16.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	45.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
0-8 corners	24.8%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	83.3%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	75.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	65.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	63.5%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 10.5 corners	55.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	54.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	45.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	44.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	36.5%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 9.5 corners	34.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 8.5 corners	24.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Under 7.5 corners	16.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.1%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.48
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.48
1-2	7.7%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.48
2-2	6.9%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.48
0-1	5.8%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
1-0	6.4%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
2-0	5.3%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
3-1	5.2%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.48
Any other score	5.9%	7.4%	4.7%	1.57×	13.48
0-0	2.8%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.47
0-2	4.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.46
0-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.48
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.37×	58.48
1-3	4.2%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.47
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	2.2%	0.76×	58.48
2-3	3.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.47
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.48
3-0	3.2%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.47
3-2	4.2%	1.7%	4.2%	0.40×	58.47
3-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.48
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.37×	58.48
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.48
4-1	2.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-2	1.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.48
4-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.44×	58.48
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.1%	13.75×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV leading at HT (DNB)	56.1%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
FC Den Bosch leading at HT (DNB)	43.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV or FC Den Bosch (12)	78.4%	75.6%	77.7%	0.97×	1.32
Jong PSV or draw (1X)	64.6%	63.6%	66.5%	0.96×	1.57
FC Den Bosch or draw (X2)	57.0%	57.0%	55.6%	1.02×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV or draw at HT	72.7%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
FC Den Bosch or draw at HT	65.0%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Jong PSV or FC Den Bosch at HT	62.3%	62.1%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV or draw (1UP)	64.6%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
FC Den Bosch or draw (1UP)	57.0%	62.7%	—	—	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV or FC Den Bosch in 2nd half	69.4%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Jong PSV or draw in 2nd half	66.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
FC Den Bosch or draw in 2nd half	63.8%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.3%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	42.7%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV (DNB)	54.9%	51.0%	57.0%	0.89×	1.96
FC Den Bosch (DNB)	45.1%	49.0%	43.0%	1.14×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV to score first	51.2%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
FC Den Bosch to score first	45.9%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
No goal scored	2.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.47

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.3%	58.2%	58.7%	0.99×	1.72
Not both teams to score	33.7%	41.8%	41.3%	1.01×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	57.2%	47.2%	49.3%	0.96×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	24.7%	27.8%	28.4%	0.98×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	9.1%	8.4%	9.6%	0.87×	11.95
Not both score & over 2.5	9.0%	8.4%	13.1%	0.64×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	74.3%	80.6%	79.0%	1.02×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	25.7%	19.4%	21.0%	0.92×	5.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	45.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	29.4%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Both score 1st half only	15.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Both score in both halves	10.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.34

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.5%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	25.5%	19.9%	—	—	5.01

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	65.2%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
A half without a goal	34.8%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.6%	42.1%	41.2%	1.02×	2.38
4-6 goals	38.5%	35.1%	37.3%	0.94×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.1%	20.2%	18.5%	1.09×	4.96
7+ goals	5.8%	7.6%	3.2%	2.34×	13.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 1	32.2%	33.8%	30.7%	1.10×	2.96
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 2	25.9%	27.4%	23.5%	1.17×	3.65
FC Den Bosch to score 3+	22.0%	22.4%	18.5%	1.21×	4.46
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 0	20.0%	19.6%	27.5%	0.71×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV to score exactly 1	29.8%	26.5%	30.5%	0.87×	3.77
Jong PSV to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	25.9%	1.03×	3.77
Jong PSV to score 3+	26.8%	26.5%	25.4%	1.05×	3.77
Jong PSV to score exactly 0	16.6%	18.9%	18.5%	1.02×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	37.7%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Jong PSV leading at HT	35.0%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
FC Den Bosch leading at HT	27.3%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV -1: 2	57.0%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Jong PSV -1: 1	22.7%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Jong PSV -1: X	20.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:1)	57.0%	55.8%	55.6%	1.00×	1.79
Jong PSV (0:1)	22.7%	24.3%	24.4%	1.00×	4.12
Draw (0:1)	20.3%	24.3%	20.1%	1.20×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:2)	77.3%	79.4%	75.6%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.8%	11.0%	12.6%	0.87×	9.12
Jong PSV (0:2)	9.9%	7.7%	11.9%	0.65×	12.92

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:3)	90.1%	92.6%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.3%	5.8%	5.7%	1.02×	17.18
Jong PSV (0:3)	3.6%	2.4%	6.3%	0.37×	42.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:4)	96.4%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.5%	1.2%	4.4%	0.28×	83.39
Jong PSV (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	83.55

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV (1:0)	64.6%	65.1%	66.5%	0.98×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	18.3%	17.0%	18.2%	0.94×	5.87
FC Den Bosch (1:0)	17.1%	17.0%	15.4%	1.10×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV (2:0)	82.9%	84.5%	84.6%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.3%	10.4%	8.8%	1.17×	9.65
FC Den Bosch (2:0)	6.8%	6.5%	6.7%	0.96×	15.49

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.3%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	21.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV to concede	80.1%	80.7%	72.5%	1.11×	1.24
Jong PSV clean sheet	20.0%	19.3%	27.5%	0.70×	5.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV clean sheet in 1st half	52.5%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Jong PSV to concede in 1st half	47.5%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV over 2.5 corners	89.3%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Jong PSV over 3.5 corners	78.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Jong PSV over 4.5 corners	65.3%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Jong PSV under 6.5 corners	62.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Jong PSV over 5.5 corners	51.1%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Jong PSV under 5.5 corners	48.9%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Jong PSV over 6.5 corners	37.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Jong PSV under 4.5 corners	34.7%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Jong PSV under 3.5 corners	21.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Jong PSV under 2.5 corners	10.7%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV under 3.5 goals	89.2%	87.3%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
Jong PSV over 0.5 goals	83.4%	82.1%	81.5%	1.01×	1.22
Jong PSV under 2.5 goals	73.2%	74.2%	74.6%	0.99×	1.35
Jong PSV over 1.5 goals	53.6%	53.3%	51.1%	1.04×	1.88
Jong PSV under 1.5 goals	46.4%	46.7%	48.9%	0.96×	2.14
Jong PSV over 2.5 goals	26.8%	25.8%	25.4%	1.02×	3.87
Jong PSV under 0.5 goals	16.6%	17.9%	18.5%	0.97×	5.59
Jong PSV over 3.5 goals	10.8%	12.7%	10.2%	1.25×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV under 1.5 in 1st half	81.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Jong PSV under 0.5 in 1st half	46.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Jong PSV over 0.5 in 1st half	53.8%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Jong PSV over 1.5 in 1st half	18.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch (home no bet)	62.1%	60.2%	60.0%	1.00×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	37.9%	39.8%	40.0%	1.00×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV even goals	51.4%	50.6%	51.7%	0.98×	1.98
Jong PSV odd goals	48.6%	49.4%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.2%	24.1%	—	—	4.14
HT 1-0	18.8%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 0-1	15.7%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-1	12.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 2-0	7.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
Any other HT score	7.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 0-2	5.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.27
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.32
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.50

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV at HT / Jong PSV at FT	26.1%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
FC Den Bosch at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT	19.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Jong PSV at FT	13.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT	12.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Jong PSV at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
FC Den Bosch at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Jong PSV at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
FC Den Bosch at HT / Jong PSV at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV to score last	51.2%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
FC Den Bosch to score last	46.0%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
No goal scored	2.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.47

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.2%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Jong PSV to lead by 1 at any time	61.9%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
FC Den Bosch to lead by 1 at any time	55.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Jong PSV to lead by 2 at any time	31.2%	29.4%	—	—	3.41
FC Den Bosch to lead by 2 at any time	25.1%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Jong PSV to lead by 3 at any time	13.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
FC Den Bosch to lead by 3 at any time	9.4%	6.7%	—	—	14.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV most corners	48.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
FC Den Bosch most corners	41.0%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.1%	83.5%	86.3%	0.97×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.1%	78.6%	78.4%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.9%	72.4%	72.5%	1.00×	1.38
1-4 goals	71.4%	72.4%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
3-6 goals	60.4%	63.4%	59.1%	1.07×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.2%	59.2%	60.3%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.1%	53.2%	53.2%	1.00×	1.88
1-3 goals	52.8%	53.2%	55.0%	0.97×	1.88
2-3 goals	40.6%	43.6%	41.2%	1.06×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	41.0%	1.06×	2.30
4-6 goals	38.5%	39.2%	37.3%	1.05×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.3%	35.4%	31.5%	1.12×	2.83
1-2 goals	31.0%	35.4%	33.2%	1.06×	2.83
5-6 goals	19.9%	18.6%	18.2%	1.03×	5.37
7+ goals	5.8%	8.7%	3.2%	2.70×	11.46

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV never behind	41.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
FC Den Bosch never behind	35.3%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.1%	50.8%	49.5%	1.03×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.9%	49.2%	50.5%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.2%	95.5%	95.3%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.0%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.9%	82.4%	81.5%	1.01×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	74.3%	72.5%	78.7%	0.92×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	66.2%	66.2%	62.2%	1.06×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	55.6%	58.8%	59.6%	0.99×	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	44.4%	41.2%	40.4%	1.02×	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	33.8%	33.8%	37.8%	0.89×	2.96
Over 4.5 goals	25.7%	27.5%	21.3%	1.29×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	15.1%	17.6%	18.5%	0.95×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	13.0%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	2.8%	4.5%	4.7%	0.95×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.7%	92.5%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	85.1%	86.7%	89.7%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.5%	81.0%	77.0%	1.05×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	68.4%	67.4%	73.7%	0.91×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.7%	55.4%	51.7%	1.07×	1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.3%	44.6%	48.3%	0.92×	2.24
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	31.6%	32.6%	26.3%	1.24×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	18.5%	19.0%	23.0%	0.83×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	14.9%	13.3%	10.3%	1.28×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.3%	7.5%	3.4%	2.19×	13.27

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.8%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	58.7%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	41.3%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.2%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.27

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.5%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.9%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.0%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.1%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.5%	14.7%	—	—	6.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch not to score in both halves	70.5%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Jong PSV not to score in both halves	65.5%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Jong PSV to score in both halves	34.5%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
FC Den Bosch to score in both halves	29.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	66.3%	59.5%	58.7%	1.01×	1.68
Only Jong PSV scores	17.1%	16.1%	22.9%	0.70×	6.22
Only FC Den Bosch scores	13.7%	10.9%	13.9%	0.79×	9.14
Neither team scores	2.8%	4.6%	4.7%	0.97×	21.87

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	21.9%	1.03×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	18.8%	17.4%	19.4%	0.90×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	18.6%	17.4%	19.3%	0.90×	5.74
6 or more goals	13.0%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	12.7%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	12.2%	12.1%	13.9%	0.87×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	2.8%	4.4%	4.7%	0.93×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	59.0%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.5%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	13.5%	14.5%	—	—	6.90

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch not to win both halves	91.0%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Jong PSV not to win both halves	87.4%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Jong PSV to win both halves	12.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
FC Den Bosch to win both halves	9.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.41

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong PSV to win either half	58.6%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
FC Den Bosch to win either half	51.5%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
FC Den Bosch to win neither half	48.5%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Jong PSV to win neither half	41.4%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Den Bosch not to win to nil	86.3%	88.2%	86.1%	1.02×	1.13
Jong PSV not to win to nil	82.9%	83.0%	77.1%	1.08×	1.20
Jong PSV to win to nil	17.1%	17.0%	22.9%	0.74×	5.89
FC Den Bosch to win to nil	13.7%	11.8%	13.9%	0.85×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.6%	24.1%	22.3%	1.08×	4.14
Jong PSV by 1	20.3%	24.1%	20.1%	1.20×	4.14
FC Den Bosch by 1	18.3%	16.9%	18.2%	0.93×	5.91
Jong PSV by 2	12.8%	11.8%	12.6%	0.94×	8.47
FC Den Bosch by 2	10.3%	11.8%	8.8%	1.34×	8.48
Jong PSV by 3+	9.9%	7.3%	11.9%	0.61×	13.77
FC Den Bosch by 3+	6.8%	7.3%	6.7%	1.08×	13.78

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.