Jong PSV v NAC Breda — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 2 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-1 8.9%
- 1-1 8.6%
- 1-2 7.0%
- 2-2 6.9%
- 1-0 6.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 68.4% | Under 2.5 | 31.6% |
| BTTS yes | 67.4% | BTTS no | 32.6% |
| Jong PSV 1+ | 86.1% | Jong PSV 2+ | 58.6% |
| NAC Breda 1+ | 78.9% | NAC Breda 2+ | 46.0% |
Expected goals 1.97 – 1.55. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Jong PSV carry the stronger rating, 1426 Elo against 1397.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Jong PSV have an estimated 46.6% win probability, against 31.0% for NAC Breda and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.97 for Jong PSV and 1.55 for NAC Breda.
Why Jong PSV
Jong PSV carry the stronger rating, 1426 Elo against 1397.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.
Why NAC Breda can win
Nothing in the data singles out NAC Breda.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Jong PSV, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for NAC Breda, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Jong PSV: 57% possession, 17.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. NAC Breda: 59% possession, 21.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Jong PSV are the model's most likely outcome at 46.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.9%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 2.05–1.61 | 2-1 9% | 71% | 69% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.