Juventus v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 12
On target
10 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
1.33 – 0.17
Goals − xG
-0.86 – +0.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
30.5%
Draw
29.5%
Atalanta win
40.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.15–1.35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–1.50 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 1.86 xGAtalanta 0.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Juventus |
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Kenan Yildiz |
| 3' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 8' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 11' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 13' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 16' |
Juventus |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 18' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 19' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 20' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 21' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 27' |
Atalanta |
Berat Gjimshiti | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 29' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 30' |
Juventus |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 33' |
Juventus |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 38' |
Atalanta |
Marten de Roon | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 45' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 51' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 54' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 61' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 62' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Odilon Kossounou |
| 63' |
Atalanta |
Raoul Bellanova | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 67' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 76' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 77' |
Juventus |
Juan Cabal | 0.50 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 81' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Edon Zhegrova |
| 83' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Juventus |
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Edon Zhegrova |
| 87' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.53 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 89' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 91' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Mário |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Mário |
| 95' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
Players
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.33 |
| Teun Koopmeiners MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.54 | 0.27 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bremer DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Loïs Openda FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Federico Gatti DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Vasilije Adzic AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Weston McKennie Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Dusan Vlahovic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| João Mário Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Juan Cabal Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Pasalic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.37 | 0.54 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Honest Ahanor DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Raoul Bellanova DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Odilon Kossounou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Davide Zappacosta DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.05 | 0.57 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lazar Samardzic AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana AMC | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Charles De Ketelaere Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |