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Juventus v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–2
1.75 – 1.03 xG
Shots
15 – 11
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.69 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.25 – +0.96
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.52.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Kephren Thuram 19' — goalMoise Kean 37' — goalKephren Thuram 47' — goalRiccardo Sottil 86' — goal
Juventus 1.75 xGFiorentina 1.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Dusan Vlahovic 4' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 18' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Kephren Thuram 19' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 22' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Sottil 27' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Yacine Adli 27' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Albert Gudmundsson 30' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 37' — Goal (0.49 xG, Open Play)Dusan Vlahovic 40' — Saved Shot (0.43 xG, Set Piece)Federico Gatti 42' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Manuel Locatelli 44' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Dusan Vlahovic 47' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Kephren Thuram 47' — Goal (0.49 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 60' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Federico Gatti 63' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Francisco Conceição 71' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Federico Gatti 73' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Federico Gatti 73' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Kenan Yildiz 73' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Dodô 75' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Dusan Vlahovic 78' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lucas Beltrán 82' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nicolás González 82' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 86' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Sottil 86' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Francisco Conceição 89' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Juventus attacking right Fiorentina attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Juventus Dusan Vlahovic 0.13 Open Play Missed Shot Francisco Conceição
18' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Riccardo Sottil
19' Juventus Kephren Thuram 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Manuel Locatelli
22' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Danilo Cataldi
27' Fiorentina Riccardo Sottil 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
27' Fiorentina Yacine Adli 0.04 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
30' Fiorentina Albert Gudmundsson 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Dodô
37' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.49 Open Play Goal Yacine Adli
40' Juventus Dusan Vlahovic 0.43 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot
42' Juventus Federico Gatti 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Teun Koopmeiners
44' Juventus Manuel Locatelli 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
47' Juventus Dusan Vlahovic 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
47' Juventus Kephren Thuram 0.49 Open Play Right Foot Goal
60' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lucas Beltrán
63' Juventus Federico Gatti 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Kenan Yildiz
71' Juventus Francisco Conceição 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Manuel Locatelli
73' Juventus Federico Gatti 0.04 From Corner Saved Shot Teun Koopmeiners
73' Juventus Federico Gatti 0.10 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
73' Juventus Kenan Yildiz 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Manuel Locatelli
75' Fiorentina Dodô 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jonathan Ikone
78' Juventus Dusan Vlahovic 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Kephren Thuram
82' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Amir Richardson
82' Juventus Nicolás González 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Kenan Yildiz
86' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
86' Fiorentina Riccardo Sottil 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Moise Kean
89' Juventus Francisco Conceição 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Douglas Luiz

Players

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Moise Kean FW 90 1 1 4 1 0.75 0.06 0.84
Riccardo Sottil AML 90 1 0 2 1 0.11 0.03 0.58
Dodô DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.05 0.18
Pietro Comuzzo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
David de Gea GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.51
Luca Ranieri DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Yacine Adli DMC 78 0 1 1 1 0.04 0.49 0.59
Andrea Colpani AMR 78 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Fabiano Parisi DL 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Danilo Cataldi DMC 68 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.15
Albert Gudmundsson AMC 62 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.12
Lucas Beltrán Sub 28 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.10 0.24
Rolando Mandragora Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Robin Gosens Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jonathan Ikone Sub 12 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.10
Amir Richardson Sub 12 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.15

Juventus

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kephren Thuram DMC 90 2 0 2 1 0.59 0.06 0.65
Federico Gatti DC 90 0 0 4 0 0.26 0.00 0.22
Francisco Conceição AMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.13 0.32
Manuel Locatelli DMC 90 0 1 1 3 0.01 0.21 0.47
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Teun Koopmeiners AMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.04
Michele Di Gregorio GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolò Savona DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Dusan Vlahovic FW 85 0 0 4 0 0.64 0.00 0.20
Samuel Mbangula AML 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Weston McKennie DL 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Andrea Cambiaso Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Kenan Yildiz Sub 24 0 0 1 2 0.07 0.14 0.21
Nicolás González Sub 5 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Nicolo Fagioli Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Douglas Luiz Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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