Juventus v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 10
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
17 – 4
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.37 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-1.97 – +1.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
60.3%
Draw
21.2%
Fiorentina win
18.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.87–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.14–0.87 | 2-0 11% | 58% | 51% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 1.97 xGFiorentina 0.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 14' |
 Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 17' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marin Pongracic |
| 17' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 19' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Manor Solomon |
| 35' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 40' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 41' |
Fiorentina |
Manor Solomon | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 41' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 46' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 48' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 51' |
Fiorentina |
Manor Solomon | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marin Pongracic |
| 52' |
Fiorentina |
Manor Solomon | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Gosens |
| 54' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 54' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 57' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 58' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 59' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 66' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.30 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 69' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 75' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 80' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 81' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 82' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 88' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Gatti |
| 89' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manor Solomon FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Brescianini MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Fabiano Parisi FWR | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Rolando Mandragora Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Pietro Comuzzo Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Gudmundsson Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luís Balbo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dusan Vlahovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.06 | 0.91 |
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Kenan Yildiz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.69 |
| Weston McKennie AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Manuel Locatelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Francisco Conceição AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| Teun Koopmeiners DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Jeremie Boga Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.49 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Kephren Thuram Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Federico Gatti Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |