Juventus v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 6 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 12
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.83 – 0.98
Goals − xG
-0.60 – -1.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
61.8%
Draw
21.6%
Genoa win
16.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.01–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.06–0.82 | 2-0 12% | 55% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 2.60 xGGenoa 1.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Juventus |
Bremer | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 3' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Goal | Lloyd Kelly |
| 5' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 7' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 14' |
 Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Francisco Conceição |
| 19' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 23' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 42' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.95 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 43' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 46' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.66 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 47' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Francisco Conceição |
| 49' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 52' |
Genoa |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 52' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Marcandalli |
| 55' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Genoa |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 74' |
Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.76 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 79' |
Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 81' |
Juventus |
Arkadiusz Milik | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 81' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 88' |
Juventus |
Emil Holm | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Fabio Miretti |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarón Martín DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Vitinha ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.39 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Junior Messias MR | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston McKennie MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.96 | 0.04 | 1.47 |
| Kenan Yildiz ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 1.11 | 1.61 |
| Bremer DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Manuel Locatelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.35 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.04 |
| Francisco Conceição MR | 84 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.41 | 1.66 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.45 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Mattia Perin GK | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Michele Di Gregorio Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arkadiusz Milik Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Emil Holm Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Jeremie Boga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |