Juventus v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Juventus

13:00 UTC

Lazio

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 941h before kick-off

Juventus win

58.7%

model 59.5%

Draw

22.1%

model 22.6%

Lazio win

19.2%

model 17.8%

592219

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (315 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 12.2%
2-0 11.1%
1-1 10.8%
2-1 9.8%
3-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.7%	Under 2.5	49.3%
BTTS yes	49.1%	BTTS no	50.9%
Juventus 1+	83.8%	Juventus 2+	54.3%
Lazio 1+	58.6%	Lazio 2+	22.1%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.88. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Juventus (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 39%

57.2% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1040 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Juventus or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 71%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1722 Elo against 1625.
Juventus have created 1.85 xG a match over their last five while Lazio have allowed 1.21.
At home Juventus average 1.95 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Juventus have an estimated 58.7% win probability, against 22.1% for the draw and 19.2% for Lazio. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.82 for Juventus and 0.88 for Lazio.

Why Juventus

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1722 Elo against 1625. Juventus have created 1.85 xG a match over their last five while Lazio have allowed 1.21. At home Juventus average 1.95 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Lazio can win

Lazio have created 1.44 xG a match over their last five while Juventus have allowed 0.63. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Away from home Lazio average 1.54 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Juventus were missing 1.42 expected goal involvements a match against 0.75.

Key players

Juventus's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kenan Yildiz (0.43), Dusan Vlahovic (0.38), Francisco Conceição (0.36). Lazio's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mattia Zaccagni (0.39), Davide Frattesi (0.30), Matteo Cancellieri (0.24).

Availability

2 of Juventus's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Juventus's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Lazio's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Lazio's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Juventus: 57% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 8.0 faced, 0.68 xG a match from set pieces. Lazio: 48% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Juventus are the model's most likely outcome at 58.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.2%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WWDDWLDWWD last 10 scored 11 from 18.5 xG conceded 6 from 6.3 xG

Lazio have scored 13 from 14.4 expected and conceded 12 from 12.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWDWLLWWWW last 10 scored 13 from 14.4 xG conceded 12 from 12.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	602318	1.82–0.88	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	552520	1.60–0.84	1-0 14%	44%	45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win	59.5%	58.8%	39.4%	1.49×	1.70
Draw	22.6%	22.1%	26.8%	0.83×	4.52
Lazio to win	17.8%	19.2%	34.0%	0.56×	5.21

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & not both score	34.7%	32.9%	22.6%	1.45×	3.04
Juventus & both teams score	24.8%	22.6%	16.9%	1.34×	4.42
Draw & both teams score	15.9%	17.7%	18.7%	0.95×	5.64
Lazio & not both score	9.5%	7.3%	20.8%	0.35×	13.63
Lazio & both teams score	8.3%	7.3%	13.3%	0.55×	13.65
Draw & not both score	6.7%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.69

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & over 1.5	47.3%	46.7%	29.0%	1.61×	2.14
Juventus & under 3.5	39.9%	37.6%	29.4%	1.28×	2.66
Juventus & over 2.5	36.2%	37.5%	22.5%	1.67×	2.67
Juventus & under 2.5	23.3%	21.5%	17.0%	1.26×	4.65
Juventus & over 3.5	19.7%	17.6%	10.1%	1.74×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	17.5%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	17.5%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	15.9%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.70
Lazio & under 3.5	14.0%	12.7%	26.6%	0.48×	7.86
Juventus & under 1.5	12.2%	12.7%	10.5%	1.21×	7.86
Lazio & over 1.5	11.9%	12.7%	24.6%	0.52×	7.86
Lazio & over 2.5	9.3%	7.5%	18.1%	0.41×	13.40
Lazio & under 2.5	8.5%	7.5%	16.0%	0.47×	13.40
Draw & under 1.5	6.7%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.41
Lazio & under 1.5	5.9%	7.5%	9.5%	0.79×	13.42
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Lazio & over 3.5	3.8%	4.6%	7.4%	0.61×	21.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (1UP)	71.3%	76.4%	54.7%	1.40×	1.31
Lazio (1UP)	34.6%	32.8%	51.1%	0.64×	3.05

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (2UP)	59.5%	61.5%	41.0%	1.50×	1.63
Lazio (2UP)	17.8%	22.9%	36.5%	0.63×	4.37

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win 2nd half	45.9%	44.4%	34.7%	1.28×	2.25
2nd half drawn	34.3%	33.8%	35.9%	0.94×	2.96
Lazio to win 2nd half	19.8%	20.3%	29.5%	0.69×	4.93

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (+2.5)	83.9%	82.3%	92.4%	0.89×	1.22
Juventus (+0.5)	82.2%	82.3%	66.0%	1.25×	1.22
Lazio (+1.5)	65.5%	68.9%	83.0%	0.83×	1.45
Juventus (-0.5)	59.5%	57.2%	39.4%	1.45×	1.75
Lazio (+0.5)	40.5%	42.8%	60.6%	0.71×	2.34
Juventus (-1.5)	34.5%	31.1%	17.0%	1.83×	3.21
Lazio (-0.5)	17.8%	17.7%	34.0%	0.52×	5.64
Juventus (-2.5)	16.1%	17.7%	7.6%	2.33×	5.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede	83.8%	84.9%	71.1%	1.19×	1.18
Lazio clean sheet	16.2%	15.1%	28.9%	0.52×	6.63

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede in 1st half	55.4%	60.2%	41.2%	1.46×	1.66
Lazio clean sheet in 1st half	44.6%	39.8%	58.8%	0.68×	2.51

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 6.5 corners	90.9%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Lazio under 5.5 corners	83.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Lazio under 4.5 corners	72.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Lazio over 2.5 corners	60.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lazio under 3.5 corners	57.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Lazio over 3.5 corners	42.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Lazio under 2.5 corners	39.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lazio over 4.5 corners	27.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Lazio over 5.5 corners	16.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Lazio over 6.5 corners	9.1%	10.0%	—	—	9.97

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 3.5 goals	98.7%	97.4%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Lazio under 2.5 goals	94.0%	92.7%	88.4%	1.05×	1.08
Lazio under 1.5 goals	77.9%	75.3%	65.4%	1.15×	1.33
Lazio over 0.5 goals	58.6%	57.7%	69.3%	0.83×	1.73
Lazio under 0.5 goals	41.4%	42.3%	30.7%	1.38×	2.37
Lazio over 1.5 goals	22.1%	24.7%	34.6%	0.71×	4.05
Lazio over 2.5 goals	6.0%	7.3%	11.6%	0.63×	13.66
Lazio over 3.5 goals	1.3%	2.6%	2.9%	0.91×	37.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 1st half	95.7%	96.1%	90.2%	1.07×	1.04
Lazio under 0.5 in 1st half	72.1%	68.9%	59.0%	1.17×	1.45
Lazio over 0.5 in 1st half	27.9%	31.1%	41.0%	0.76×	3.22
Lazio over 1.5 in 1st half	4.3%	3.9%	9.8%	0.40×	25.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (away no bet)	72.4%	74.4%	59.5%	1.25×	1.34
Draw (away no bet)	27.6%	25.6%	40.5%	0.63×	3.91

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio even goals	58.6%	58.0%	55.7%	1.04×	1.72
Lazio odd goals	41.4%	42.0%	44.3%	0.95×	2.38

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.4%	86.3%	87.2%	0.99×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.6%	13.7%	12.8%	1.07×	7.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.2%	66.3%	59.6%	1.11×	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.8%	33.7%	40.4%	0.83×	2.97

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.6%	59.2%	52.8%	1.12×	1.69
Juventus to score 2+ in a row	47.4%	47.7%	31.1%	1.54×	2.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.2%	21.8%	17.3%	1.26×	4.59
Juventus to score 3+ in a row	20.5%	21.7%	9.7%	2.23×	4.60
Lazio to score 2+ in a row	15.1%	17.8%	27.7%	0.64×	5.63
Lazio to score 3+ in a row	3.0%	3.4%	7.7%	0.44×	29.64

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus corners (+3.5)	95.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Juventus corners (+2.5)	91.5%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Juventus corners (+1.5)	86.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Lazio corners (+3.5)	61.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Juventus corners (-1.5)	59.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Lazio corners (+2.5)	50.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Juventus corners (-2.5)	49.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Lazio corners (+1.5)	40.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Juventus corners (-3.5)	38.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Lazio corners (-1.5)	13.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Lazio corners (-2.5)	8.5%	10.5%	—	—	9.57
Lazio corners (-3.5)	5.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
9-11 corners	27.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	27.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.7%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	65.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	64.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	55.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	55.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	44.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	45.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	35.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	34.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	27.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	20.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.2%	11.6%	10.5%	1.11×	8.63
2-0	11.1%	11.6%	6.7%	1.73×	8.64
1-1	10.8%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.64
2-1	9.8%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.74
0-0	6.7%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.75
3-0	6.7%	7.3%	3.4%	2.13×	13.75
0-1	5.9%	7.3%	9.5%	0.77×	13.75
3-1	5.9%	7.3%	3.0%	2.40×	13.75
1-2	4.7%	1.8%	7.6%	0.24×	55.39
2-2	4.3%	1.8%	6.1%	0.30×	55.40
Any other score	4.0%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.41
0-2	2.6%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.44
3-2	2.6%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.44
4-0	3.1%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.43
4-1	2.7%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.44
1-3	1.4%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.47
2-3	1.3%	1.8%	3.0%	0.59×	55.48
4-2	1.2%	1.8%	0.1%	14.28×	55.48
0-3	0.8%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.49
0-4	0.2%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.50
1-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.50
2-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.50
3-3	0.8%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.49
3-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50
4-3	0.4%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus leading at HT (DNB)	76.1%	79.5%	50.1%	1.59×	1.26
Lazio leading at HT (DNB)	23.9%	20.5%	49.9%	0.41×	4.87

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (1X)	82.2%	80.8%	66.0%	1.22×	1.24
Juventus or Lazio (12)	77.4%	77.9%	73.2%	1.06×	1.28
Lazio or draw (X2)	40.5%	41.2%	60.6%	0.68×	2.43

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw at HT	85.9%	88.2%	72.6%	1.22×	1.13
Juventus or Lazio at HT	58.8%	58.2%	54.8%	1.06×	1.72
Lazio or draw at HT	55.3%	58.1%	72.5%	0.80×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (1UP)	82.2%	83.8%	71.3%	1.17×	1.19
Lazio or draw (1UP)	40.5%	45.5%	66.3%	0.69×	2.20

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw in 2nd half	80.2%	79.7%	70.5%	1.13×	1.25
Juventus or Lazio in 2nd half	65.7%	66.2%	64.1%	1.03×	1.51
Lazio or draw in 2nd half	54.1%	55.6%	65.3%	0.85×	1.80

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.4%	59.4%	64.4%	0.92×	1.69
Neither half drawn	38.6%	40.6%	35.6%	1.14×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (DNB)	76.9%	78.0%	53.7%	1.45×	1.28
Lazio (DNB)	23.1%	22.0%	46.3%	0.48×	4.54

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score first	62.8%	66.8%	47.7%	1.40×	1.50
Lazio to score first	30.4%	31.7%	44.2%	0.72×	3.15
No goal scored	6.7%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.03

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.9%	52.8%	51.4%	1.03×	1.89
Both teams to score	49.1%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	38.6%	37.5%	41.0%	0.91×	2.67
Both score & over 2.5	38.3%	37.5%	36.9%	1.02×	2.67
Not both score & over 2.5	12.3%	11.7%	10.5%	1.12×	8.53
Both score & under 2.5	10.8%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.54

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.0%	85.6%	86.9%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.0%	14.4%	13.1%	1.10×	6.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.9%	70.4%	74.7%	0.94×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.1%	29.6%	25.3%	1.17×	3.38

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.6%	59.5%	63.1%	0.94×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	22.9%	24.4%	20.5%	1.19×	4.10
Both score 1st half only	11.2%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.67
Both score in both halves	4.2%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.6%	83.3%	83.5%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.4%	16.7%	16.5%	1.01×	5.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.7%	54.7%	51.8%	1.06×	1.83
A half without a goal	46.3%	45.3%	48.2%	0.94×	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.5%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
4-6 goals	26.6%	27.7%	23.5%	1.18×	3.62
0-1 goals	24.8%	22.9%	27.9%	0.82×	4.38
7+ goals	2.1%	1.9%	0.9%	2.20×	51.50

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score exactly 0	41.4%	41.4%	30.7%	1.35×	2.42
Lazio to score exactly 1	36.5%	34.6%	34.8%	0.99×	2.89
Lazio to score exactly 2	16.1%	18.3%	23.1%	0.79×	5.46
Lazio to score 3+	6.0%	7.6%	11.6%	0.65×	13.21

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score exactly 1	29.5%	27.1%	32.3%	0.84×	3.69
Juventus to score 3+	27.5%	27.1%	14.4%	1.88×	3.69
Juventus to score exactly 2	26.8%	27.1%	24.6%	1.10×	3.70
Juventus to score exactly 0	16.2%	18.5%	28.9%	0.64×	5.42

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus leading at HT	44.7%	41.9%	27.5%	1.52×	2.39
Draw at HT	41.2%	41.8%	45.2%	0.92×	2.39
Lazio leading at HT	14.1%	11.8%	27.4%	0.43×	8.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus -1: 2	40.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Juventus -1: 1	34.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Juventus -1: X	25.0%	27.0%	—	—	3.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:1)	40.5%	41.6%	60.6%	0.69×	2.41
Juventus (0:1)	34.5%	34.8%	17.0%	2.04×	2.87
Draw (0:1)	25.0%	26.2%	22.5%	1.16×	3.82

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:2)	65.5%	65.7%	83.0%	0.79×	1.52
Draw (0:2)	18.4%	16.4%	9.6%	1.70×	6.11
Juventus (0:2)	16.1%	16.3%	7.6%	2.15×	6.15

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:3)	83.9%	83.6%	92.4%	0.90×	1.20
Draw (0:3)	9.9%	7.0%	4.5%	1.54×	14.31
Juventus (0:3)	6.2%	6.9%	3.2%	2.18×	14.52

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:4)	93.8%	94.2%	96.8%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.2%	1.3%	2.3%	0.56×	79.21
Juventus (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	80.32

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (1:0)	82.2%	80.5%	66.0%	1.22×	1.24
Draw (1:0)	12.1%	11.8%	19.9%	0.59×	8.50
Lazio (1:0)	5.7%	8.5%	14.1%	0.60×	11.78

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (2:0)	94.3%	91.8%	85.9%	1.07×	1.09
Draw (2:0)	4.3%	2.7%	8.5%	0.32×	36.76
Lazio (2:0)	1.4%	2.7%	5.8%	0.46×	37.46

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.4%	48.7%	46.6%	1.05×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.5%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
Halves equal	25.1%	26.1%	26.8%	0.97×	3.83

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to concede	58.6%	59.7%	69.3%	0.86×	1.67
Juventus clean sheet	41.4%	40.3%	30.7%	1.31×	2.48

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus clean sheet in 1st half	72.1%	68.0%	59.0%	1.15×	1.47
Juventus to concede in 1st half	27.9%	32.0%	41.0%	0.78×	3.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus over 2.5 corners	87.2%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Juventus over 3.5 corners	76.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Juventus over 4.5 corners	63.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Juventus under 6.5 corners	61.0%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Juventus over 5.5 corners	50.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Juventus under 5.5 corners	49.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Juventus over 6.5 corners	39.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Juventus under 4.5 corners	36.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Juventus under 3.5 corners	23.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Juventus under 2.5 corners	12.8%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 3.5 goals	88.8%	87.8%	95.5%	0.92×	1.14
Juventus over 0.5 goals	83.8%	82.5%	71.1%	1.16×	1.21
Juventus under 2.5 goals	72.5%	72.7%	85.6%	0.85×	1.38
Juventus over 1.5 goals	54.3%	52.8%	38.9%	1.36×	1.89
Juventus under 1.5 goals	45.7%	47.2%	61.1%	0.77×	2.12
Juventus over 2.5 goals	27.5%	27.3%	14.4%	1.89×	3.67
Juventus under 0.5 goals	16.2%	17.5%	28.9%	0.61×	5.70
Juventus over 3.5 goals	11.2%	12.2%	4.5%	2.68×	8.22

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 1.5 in 1st half	80.6%	80.3%	90.2%	0.89×	1.25
Juventus over 0.5 in 1st half	55.4%	59.9%	41.2%	1.46×	1.67
Juventus under 0.5 in 1st half	44.6%	40.1%	58.8%	0.68×	2.50
Juventus over 1.5 in 1st half	19.4%	19.7%	9.8%	2.00×	5.08

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.9%	54.2%	44.1%	1.23×	1.84
Lazio (home no bet)	44.1%	45.8%	55.9%	0.82×	2.18

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus even goals	51.3%	50.2%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
Juventus odd goals	48.7%	49.8%	43.4%	1.15×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.2%	30.5%	34.3%	0.89×	3.28
HT 1-0	26.0%	28.0%	18.3%	1.53×	3.57
HT 0-1	10.5%	11.2%	18.4%	0.61×	8.96
HT 2-0	10.5%	11.2%	5.6%	2.01×	8.96
HT 1-1	8.5%	7.7%	10.5%	0.73×	12.99
Any other HT score	5.3%	7.7%	3.0%	2.53×	13.03
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	1.11×	39.80
HT 0-2	1.7%	2.5%	5.4%	0.46×	39.90
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.92
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.5%	0.6%	3.96×	39.97

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus at HT / Juventus at FT	38.3%	41.6%	21.3%	1.95×	2.41
Draw at HT / Juventus at FT	18.9%	16.8%	15.8%	1.06×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.2%	12.0%	16.7%	0.72×	8.34
Draw at HT / Lazio at FT	8.2%	6.6%	13.0%	0.51×	15.20
Lazio at HT / Lazio at FT	8.2%	6.6%	19.2%	0.34×	15.19
Juventus at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.4%	4.4%	0.77×	29.31
Lazio at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.4%	5.9%	0.57×	29.36
Lazio at HT / Juventus at FT	2.3%	3.4%	2.5%	1.35×	29.42
Juventus at HT / Lazio at FT	1.5%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.45

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score last	62.8%	60.2%	48.4%	1.25×	1.66
Lazio to score last	30.5%	35.6%	43.6%	0.82×	2.81
No goal scored	6.7%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.03

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.3%	93.7%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
Juventus to lead by 1 at any time	71.3%	76.8%	54.7%	1.41×	1.30
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.8%	46.2%	42.6%	1.09×	2.17
Juventus to lead by 2 at any time	40.5%	42.0%	22.9%	1.84×	2.38
Lazio to lead by 1 at any time	34.6%	32.1%	51.1%	0.63×	3.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.7%	19.7%	14.5%	1.36×	5.06
Juventus to lead by 3 at any time	18.5%	17.7%	8.3%	2.12×	5.66
Lazio to lead by 2 at any time	9.5%	7.1%	20.1%	0.35×	14.11
Lazio to lead by 3 at any time	2.1%	2.6%	6.3%	0.41×	38.55

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus most corners	70.1%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Lazio most corners	20.9%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Corners level	9.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.6%	78.9%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.1%	73.6%	71.3%	1.03×	1.36
2-5 goals	69.5%	68.4%	69.4%	0.98×	1.46
1-3 goals	64.7%	62.3%	67.7%	0.92×	1.61
2-4 goals	61.4%	62.3%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
3-6 goals	48.6%	48.0%	46.5%	1.03×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.5%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
3-5 goals	45.0%	48.0%	44.6%	1.08×	2.08
1-2 goals	42.6%	43.6%	44.7%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.0%	38.8%	36.1%	1.08×	2.58
4-6 goals	26.6%	30.4%	23.5%	1.30×	3.29
4-5 goals	22.9%	24.7%	21.6%	1.15×	4.04
5-6 goals	11.7%	13.4%	10.5%	1.28×	7.44
7+ goals	2.1%	2.0%	0.9%	2.29×	49.49

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus never behind	58.7%	63.1%	48.9%	1.29×	1.58
Lazio never behind	22.0%	23.9%	45.3%	0.53×	4.19

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.2%	55.3%	56.8%	0.97×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	44.8%	44.7%	43.2%	1.04×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.3%	93.0%	97.2%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.3%	93.0%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.3%	88.7%	88.8%	1.00×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	75.2%	78.2%	72.1%	1.08×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	71.4%	72.4%	75.8%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.7%	53.5%	47.2%	1.13×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	49.3%	46.5%	52.8%	0.88×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	28.6%	27.6%	24.2%	1.14×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	24.8%	21.8%	27.9%	0.78×	4.59
Over 4.5 goals	13.7%	11.3%	11.2%	1.00×	8.88
Under 0.5 goals	6.7%	7.0%	8.2%	0.86×	14.19
Over 5.5 goals	5.7%	7.0%	2.8%	2.53×	14.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.8%	92.8%	97.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.9%	80.8%	87.1%	0.93×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.1%	68.0%	62.9%	1.08×	1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.3%	62.4%	68.5%	0.91×	1.60
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.7%	37.6%	31.5%	1.19×	2.66
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.9%	32.0%	37.1%	0.86×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.1%	19.2%	12.9%	1.49×	5.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.2%	7.2%	3.0%	2.39×	13.80
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	0.9%	3.07×	36.13

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.4%	88.1%	91.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.7%	68.6%	70.8%	0.97×	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	68.6%	65.7%	1.04×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	31.4%	34.3%	0.91×	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.3%	31.4%	29.2%	1.08×	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.6%	11.9%	8.1%	1.47×	8.43

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	80.3%	77.9%	1.03×	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	80.3%	82.3%	0.98×	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.5%	51.8%	43.2%	1.20×	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.5%	48.2%	56.8%	0.85×	2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	19.7%	22.1%	0.89×	5.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	19.7%	17.7%	1.11×	5.08

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio not to score in both halves	88.1%	84.6%	78.8%	1.07×	1.18
Juventus not to score in both halves	64.7%	62.7%	76.3%	0.82×	1.59
Juventus to score in both halves	35.3%	37.3%	23.7%	1.57×	2.68
Lazio to score in both halves	11.9%	15.4%	21.2%	0.73×	6.48

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.1%	49.6%	48.6%	1.02×	2.02
Only Juventus scores	34.7%	36.2%	22.6%	1.60×	2.76
Only Lazio scores	9.5%	6.7%	20.8%	0.32×	14.95
Neither team scores	6.7%	6.6%	8.2%	0.81×	15.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.5%	21.6%	25.0%	0.86×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	18.1%	18.6%	19.8%	0.94×	5.39
Exactly 4 goals	14.9%	12.4%	13.1%	0.94×	8.07
Exactly 5 goals	8.1%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.7%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.15
6 or more goals	5.7%	7.6%	2.8%	2.74×	13.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.5%	50.8%	43.2%	1.18×	1.97
1 goal in 2nd half	32.7%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	20.8%	18.5%	22.1%	0.84×	5.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio not to win both halves	97.2%	96.7%	91.4%	1.06×	1.03
Juventus not to win both halves	79.5%	80.3%	90.3%	0.89×	1.25
Juventus to win both halves	20.5%	19.7%	9.7%	2.03×	5.07
Lazio to win both halves	2.8%	3.3%	8.6%	0.39×	30.17

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win either half	70.1%	72.2%	52.5%	1.37×	1.39
Lazio to win neither half	68.9%	67.3%	51.6%	1.30×	1.49
Lazio to win either half	31.1%	32.7%	48.4%	0.68×	3.05
Juventus to win neither half	29.9%	27.8%	47.5%	0.59×	3.59

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio not to win to nil	90.5%	92.2%	79.2%	1.16×	1.08
Juventus not to win to nil	65.3%	64.6%	77.4%	0.84×	1.55
Juventus to win to nil	34.7%	35.4%	22.6%	1.56×	2.83
Lazio to win to nil	9.5%	7.8%	20.8%	0.37×	12.86

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus by 1	25.0%	28.0%	22.5%	1.24×	3.58
Draw	22.6%	23.7%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
Juventus by 2	18.4%	17.0%	9.6%	1.77×	5.89
Juventus by 3+	16.1%	17.0%	7.6%	2.24×	5.90
Lazio by 1	12.1%	11.9%	19.9%	0.59×	8.44
Lazio by 2	4.3%	2.8%	8.5%	0.34×	35.16
Lazio by 3+	1.4%	2.8%	5.8%	0.48×	35.58