Juventus v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 6
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
16 – 1
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
1.63 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-2.65 – +0.82
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
59.6%
Draw
27.3%
Lecce win
13.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 9.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWLWWWLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 12
from 21.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.67–0.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–0.72 | 1-0 14% | 48% | 43% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 3.65 xGLecce 0.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 6' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 6' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 7' |
 Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 12' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matías Pérez |
| 13' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 13' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 17' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 18' |
Lecce |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 27' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 28' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 31' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 37' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 48' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.56 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 53' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.56 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 65' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 72' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 73' |
Juventus |
Filip Kostic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 74' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 76' |
Lecce |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 77' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 86' |
Juventus |
Filip Kostic | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Juventus |
Filip Kostic | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Filip Kostic |
| 93' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 93' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.64 | 0.01 | 0.25 |
| Kenan Yildiz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.52 | 0.94 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Weston McKennie AMC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.89 | 0.25 | 1.43 |
| Manuel Locatelli DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.63 | 0.21 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Kephren Thuram DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Francisco Conceição AMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Filip Kostic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Vasilije Adzic Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Kaba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ylber Ramadani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Lameck Banda FWL | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Santiago Pierotti FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Francesco Camarda FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Danilo Veiga Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Matías Pérez DR | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Corrie Ndaba Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thórir Helgason Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |