Juventus v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 12
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.85 – -0.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
68.9%
Draw
20.7%
Monza win
10.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Monza are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLWLLLLD last 10
scored 7
from 11.3 xG
conceded 22
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.23–0.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.15–0.61 | 2-0 15% | 52% | 40% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 1.15 xGMonza 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Monza attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Juventus |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 6' |
Monza |
Samuele Birindelli | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gaetano Castrovilli |
| 9' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 10' |
Juventus |
Nicolás González | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Renato Veiga |
| 20' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Renato Veiga |
| 22' |
Juventus |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 24' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 25' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 29' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 32' |
Juventus |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kephren Thuram |
| 42' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Monza |
Samuele Birindelli | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Georgios Kyriakopoulos |
| 54' |
Monza |
Gaetano Castrovilli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dany Mota |
| 57' |
Juventus |
Nicolás González | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 61' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Birindelli |
| 70' |
Monza |
Gianluca Caprari | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omari Forson |
| 81' |
Monza |
Omari Forson | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Petagna |
| 82' |
Monza |
Gianluca Caprari | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pedro Pereira |
| 84' |
Monza |
Patrick Ciurria | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Forson |
| 87' |
Monza |
Omari Forson | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Ciurria |
| 89' |
Monza |
Stefano Sensi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Forson |
Players
Monza
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Caprari FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Pereira DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Luca Caldirola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Andrea Carboni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dany Mota FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Alessandro Bianco MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Gaetano Castrovilli MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| Samuele Birindelli DMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Omari Forson Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Andrea Petagna Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Stefano Sensi Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Patrick Ciurria Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Samuele Vignato Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randal Kolo Muani FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 1.03 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.61 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.59 |
| Weston McKennie DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nicolás González AMC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 61 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Timothy Weah Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Savona Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Costa Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |