Juventus v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 7
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
19 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.81 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
71.8%
Draw
17.8%
Pisa win
10.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDWWDLWDL last 10
scored 12
from 18.7 xG
conceded 12
from 5.8 xG
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.29–0.75 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.47–0.75 | 2-0 12% | 62% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 3.19 xGPisa 0.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Pisa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Pisa |
Samuele Angori | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arturo Calabresi |
| 3' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 5' |
Pisa |
Francesco Coppola | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 5' |
Pisa |
Rafiu Durosinmi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 13' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 14' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 15' |
Juventus |
Federico Gatti | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bremer |
| 16' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 19' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 23' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 24' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Malthe Højholt |
| 30' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 30' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Malthe Højholt |
| 37' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 45' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 48' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 50' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 52' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 53' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.59 | Open Play | — | Goal | Kenan Yildiz |
| 56' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Perin |
| 60' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 64' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 64' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Weston McKennie |
| 68' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 70' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 72' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 74' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Francisco Conceição |
| 85' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Manuel Locatelli |
Players
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.49 | 1.04 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.57 | 1.73 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1.20 |
| Mattia Perin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Weston McKennie DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.99 |
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.25 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 84 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.91 | 1.20 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.05 | 1.14 |
| Francisco Conceição AMC | 78 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.14 | 1.34 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 0.65 |
| Federico Gatti DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jeremie Boga Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 1.38 |
| Lloyd Kelly Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.59 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filip Kostic Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Moreo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Francesco Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Nícolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafiu Durosinmi FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Arturo Calabresi DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Mehdi Leris DMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malthe Højholt MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Marius Marin MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Cuadrado Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felipe Loyola Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filip Stojilkovic Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Iling-Junior Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |