Juventus v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 7
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
16 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.17 – 0.36
Goals − xG
-1.25 – +0.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
63.8%
Draw
21.0%
Sassuolo win
15.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWWDLWDLW last 10
scored 13
from 17.5 xG
conceded 12
from 6.0 xG
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLWDWLDLL last 10
scored 14
from 16.9 xG
conceded 20
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.05–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.33–0.81 | 2-0 12% | 61% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 2.25 xGSassuolo 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 2' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 7' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 13' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Francisco Conceição |
| 13' |
 Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 15' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 16' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 18' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 25' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jay Idzes |
| 25' |
Sassuolo |
Jay Idzes | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 27' |
Sassuolo |
Darryl Bakola | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 40' |
Juventus |
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 46' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Domenico Berardi |
| 58' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 63' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 65' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 66' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 68' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 72' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 86' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 89' |
Juventus |
Arkadiusz Milik | 0.25 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 93' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
Players
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Locatelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.16 | 0.46 |
| Kenan Yildiz ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Weston McKennie MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Mattia Perin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Francisco Conceição MR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.83 |
| Jeremie Boga FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.58 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Arkadiusz Milik Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Dusan Vlahovic Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.47 |
| Domenico Berardi MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| Ulisses García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| Aster Vranckx MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Cristian Volpato FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Darryl Bakola ML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Armand Lauriente Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edoardo Iannoni Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Josh Doig Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |