Juventus v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 8
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.94 – -0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
57.7%
Draw
26.0%
Torino win
16.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.67–0.78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–0.72 | 1-0 15% | 44% | 42% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 1.94 xGTorino 0.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 6' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 6' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
 Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 29' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 37' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 40' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 44' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.21 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 49' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 49' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Saúl Coco |
| 56' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Pedersen |
| 59' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 61' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 66' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Edon Zhegrova |
| 70' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Simeone |
| 72' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 74' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 74' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 75' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 76' |
Juventus |
Federico Gatti | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 76' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 77' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 81' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 81' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| Valentino Lazaro DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marcus Pedersen DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Cesare Casadei MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ivan Ilic MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyril Ngonge FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Che Adams Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kristjan Asllani Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Faustino Anjorin Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Adrien Tameze Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston McKennie DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.06 | 0.65 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.71 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.57 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Teun Koopmeiners DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.61 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 1.10 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.41 | 1.22 |
| Dusan Vlahovic FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Francisco Conceição AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.46 |
| Daniele Rugani DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Federico Gatti Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jonathan Christian David Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.03 | 0.69 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vasilije Adzic Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |