Juventus v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 29 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 8
On target
11 – 2
Shots in box
17 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
2.08 – 0.38
Goals − xG
-0.31 – +0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
58.6%
Draw
24.7%
Udinese win
16.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.79–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.75–0.70 | 1-0 15% | 44% | 42% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 3.31 xGUdinese 0.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 9' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 18' |
 Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Filip Kostic |
| 34' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 37' |
Juventus |
Filip Kostic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 45' |
Udinese |
Adam Buksa | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Saba Goglichidze | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 49' |
Udinese |
Saba Goglichidze | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Filip Kostic |
| 52' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Filip Kostic |
| 52' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Filip Kostic |
| 52' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 53' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 58' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Filip Kostic |
| 60' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 65' |
Juventus |
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 66' |
Juventus |
Federico Gatti | 0.28 | From Corner | — | Goal | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 66' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 69' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Filip Kostic |
| 85' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.25 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sandi Lovric |
| 91' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Gatti |
| 95' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 98' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 98' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saba Goglichidze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandi Lovric Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Zanoli Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenan Yildiz MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1.18 | 0.11 | 0.69 |
| Dusan Vlahovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.03 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| Federico Gatti DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Manuel Locatelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.58 |
| Weston McKennie MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Filip Kostic ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.04 | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Cambiaso MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.06 |
| Loïs Openda FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.06 | 0.47 |
| Jonathan Christian David Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Rugani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |