Kalmar FF v GAIS — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 29 October 2026 · SWE-Allsvenskan · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.4%
- 0-1 12.0%
- 0-2 10.3%
- 1-2 9.5%
- 0-0 8.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 47.0% | Under 2.5 | 53.0% |
| BTTS yes | 49.1% | BTTS no | 50.9% |
| Kalmar FF 1+ | 60.3% | Kalmar FF 2+ | 23.6% |
| GAIS 1+ | 80.4% | GAIS 2+ | 48.5% |
Expected goals 0.92 – 1.63. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- GAIS carry the stronger rating, 1568 Elo against 1448.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0255 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this
The price
GAIS have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 22.1% for Kalmar FF. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.92 for Kalmar FF and 1.63 for GAIS.
Why Kalmar FF
Nothing in the data singles out Kalmar FF.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.
Why GAIS can win
GAIS carry the stronger rating, 1568 Elo against 1448.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Kalmar FF, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for GAIS, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Kalmar FF: 48% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. GAIS: 53% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
GAIS are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 0.75–1.42 | 0-1 15% | 37% | 41% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.