Karlsruher SC v VfL Osnabruck — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 November 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627
GER-2. Bundesliga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.8%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 1-0 7.7%
- 2-0 7.6%
- 1-2 6.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 60.5% | Under 2.5 | 39.5% |
| BTTS yes | 61.1% | BTTS no | 38.9% |
| Karlsruher SC 1+ | 84.4% | Karlsruher SC 2+ | 55.4% |
| VfL Osnabruck 1+ | 71.9% | VfL Osnabruck 2+ | 36.2% |
Expected goals 1.86 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Karlsruher SC.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 35/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0032 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
- VfL Osnabruck have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Karlsruher SC have an estimated 50.8% win probability, against 25.7% for VfL Osnabruck and 23.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.86 for Karlsruher SC and 1.27 for VfL Osnabruck.
Why Karlsruher SC
Nothing in the data singles out Karlsruher SC.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.5%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why VfL Osnabruck can win
Nothing in the data singles out VfL Osnabruck.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Karlsruher SC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for VfL Osnabruck, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Karlsruher SC: 52% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. VfL Osnabruck: 40% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 19.7 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Karlsruher SC's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Karlsruher SC are the model's most likely outcome at 50.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 17/100, data quality 35/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.86–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.95–1.22 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 61% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.