Kashima Antlers v V-Varen Nagasaki — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 October 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627
JPN-J League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (637 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 11.5%
- 1-0 10.1%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 3-0 8.9%
- 1-1 8.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 60.8% | Under 2.5 | 39.2% |
| BTTS yes | 50.8% | BTTS no | 49.2% |
| Kashima Antlers 1+ | 90.1% | Kashima Antlers 2+ | 67.1% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki 1+ | 56.5% | V-Varen Nagasaki 2+ | 20.3% |
Expected goals 2.31 – 0.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Kashima Antlers carry the stronger rating, 1714 Elo against 1440.
- Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Kashima Antlers have an estimated 70.3% win probability, against 17.5% for the draw and 12.2% for V-Varen Nagasaki. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.31 for Kashima Antlers and 0.83 for V-Varen Nagasaki.
Why Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers carry the stronger rating, 1714 Elo against 1440. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 17.5%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why V-Varen Nagasaki can win
Nothing in the data singles out V-Varen Nagasaki.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Kashima Antlers, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for V-Varen Nagasaki, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Kashima Antlers: 63% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. V-Varen Nagasaki: 45% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kashima Antlers's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Kashima Antlers are the model's most likely outcome at 70.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.5%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 2.16–0.86 | 2-0 11% | 58% | 51% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.