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Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Kashiwa Reysol win
53.6%
model 54.7%
Draw
23.2%
model 21.8%
Kawasaki Frontale win
23.2%
model 23.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.0%
  2. 2-1 9.8%
  3. 1-0 8.9%
  4. 2-0 8.3%
  5. 3-1 6.2%

Goals

Over 2.559.7% Under 2.540.3%
BTTS yes58.8% BTTS no41.2%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+85.2% Kashiwa Reysol 2+57.0%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+69.3% Kawasaki Frontale 2+33.0%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
84/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Kashiwa Reysol over 1.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 39%
56.0% fair odds 1.78
strong signal · 925 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Kashiwa Reysol not to win both halves
Win both halves
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Kashiwa Reysol carry the stronger rating, 1589 Elo against 1519.
  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Kashiwa Reysol have an estimated 53.6% win probability, against 23.2% for Kawasaki Frontale and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.91 for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.18 for Kawasaki Frontale.

Why Kashiwa Reysol

Kashiwa Reysol carry the stronger rating, 1589 Elo against 1519. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Kawasaki Frontale can win

Nothing in the data singles out Kawasaki Frontale.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Kashiwa Reysol, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kawasaki Frontale, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Kashiwa Reysol: 60% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kawasaki Frontale: 48% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Kashiwa Reysol are the model's most likely outcome at 53.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.91–1.18 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.83–1.24 1-1 10% 59% 59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol to win 51.4% 51.5% 43.0% 1.20× 1.94
Kawasaki Frontale to win 26.2% 27.9% 31.1% 0.90× 3.58
Draw 22.4% 24.5% 26.1% 0.94× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol & both teams score 26.9% 25.2% 18.1% 1.39× 3.97
Kashiwa Reysol & not both score 24.5% 21.8% 25.0% 0.87× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.0% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Kawasaki Frontale & both teams score 14.5% 13.3% 13.4% 0.99× 7.54
Kawasaki Frontale & not both score 11.7% 13.3% 17.8% 0.74× 7.54
Draw & not both score 4.4% 4.9% 7.0% 0.69× 20.48
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol & over 1.5 42.7% 40.3% 30.3% 1.33× 2.48
Kashiwa Reysol & over 2.5 34.9% 30.8% 23.1% 1.33× 3.25
Kashiwa Reysol & under 3.5 30.9% 30.7% 33.1% 0.93× 3.25
Kashiwa Reysol & over 3.5 20.5% 21.6% 10.0% 2.16× 4.63
Kawasaki Frontale & over 1.5 20.2% 21.6% 21.3% 1.02× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.0% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.55
Kawasaki Frontale & under 3.5 17.6% 18.0% 23.4% 0.77× 5.55
Kashiwa Reysol & under 2.5 16.5% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.56
Kawasaki Frontale & over 2.5 16.6% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 14.7% 12.8% 20.3% 0.63× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 14.7% 12.8% 20.3% 0.63× 7.79
Kashiwa Reysol & under 1.5 8.7% 7.9% 12.8% 0.62× 12.63
Kawasaki Frontale & under 2.5 9.6% 7.9% 13.4% 0.59× 12.62
Draw & over 2.5 7.7% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.7% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Kawasaki Frontale & over 3.5 8.6% 7.9% 7.8% 1.01× 12.63
Kawasaki Frontale & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 4.4% 4.8% 7.0% 0.68× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol (1UP) 66.9% 70.2% — — 1.42
Kawasaki Frontale (1UP) 45.5% 43.7% — — 2.29
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol (2UP) 51.4% 55.2% — — 1.81
Kawasaki Frontale (2UP) 26.2% 25.1% — — 3.98
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol to win 2nd half 41.9% 41.9% — — 2.38
2nd half drawn 32.3% 34.0% — — 2.94
Kawasaki Frontale to win 2nd half 25.7% 26.0% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.9% 84.1% — — 1.19
Kawasaki Frontale over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.5% 52.5% — — 1.91
Kawasaki Frontale under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.5% 47.5% — — 2.10
Kawasaki Frontale over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.1% 15.9% — — 6.30
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol under 1.5 in 2nd half 72.0% 74.4% — — 1.35
Kashiwa Reysol over 0.5 in 2nd half 64.7% 63.3% — — 1.58
Kashiwa Reysol under 0.5 in 2nd half 35.3% 36.8% — — 2.72
Kashiwa Reysol over 1.5 in 2nd half 28.0% 25.6% — — 3.90
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (+2.5) 87.0% 88.5% 93.8% 0.94× 1.13
Kashiwa Reysol (+0.5) 73.8% 73.7% 68.9% 1.07× 1.36
Kawasaki Frontale (+1.5) 71.4% 73.7% 81.9% 0.90× 1.36
Kashiwa Reysol (-0.5) 51.4% 52.4% 43.0% 1.22× 1.91
Kawasaki Frontale (+0.5) 48.6% 47.6% 57.0% 0.83× 2.10
Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) 28.6% 26.3% 18.1% 1.45× 3.80
Kawasaki Frontale (-0.5) 26.2% 26.3% 31.1% 0.85× 3.80
Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) 13.0% 11.5% 6.3% 1.85× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to concede 83.9% 81.5% 75.3% 1.08× 1.23
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet 16.1% 18.5% 24.7% 0.75× 5.40
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to concede in 1st half 54.4% 51.0% — — 1.96
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet in 1st half 45.6% 49.0% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to concede in 2nd half 64.7% 62.0% — — 1.61
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet in 2nd half 35.3% 38.0% — — 2.63
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 6.5 corners 84.8% 81.4% — — 1.23
Kawasaki Frontale under 5.5 corners 74.7% 71.6% — — 1.40
Kawasaki Frontale over 2.5 corners 74.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
Kawasaki Frontale under 4.5 corners 60.7% 61.7% — — 1.62
Kawasaki Frontale over 3.5 corners 56.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Kawasaki Frontale under 3.5 corners 43.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Kawasaki Frontale over 4.5 corners 39.3% 38.3% — — 2.61
Kawasaki Frontale under 2.5 corners 26.0% 28.4% — — 3.53
Kawasaki Frontale over 5.5 corners 25.3% 28.4% — — 3.53
Kawasaki Frontale over 6.5 corners 15.2% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 3.5 goals 96.3% 97.5% 95.9% 1.02× 1.03
Kawasaki Frontale under 2.5 goals 87.0% 87.8% 87.8% 1.00× 1.14
Kawasaki Frontale over 0.5 goals 71.1% 71.8% 68.1% 1.05× 1.39
Kawasaki Frontale under 1.5 goals 64.8% 63.2% 68.3% 0.93× 1.58
Kawasaki Frontale over 1.5 goals 35.2% 36.8% 31.7% 1.16× 2.72
Kawasaki Frontale under 0.5 goals 28.9% 28.2% 31.9% 0.88× 3.55
Kawasaki Frontale over 2.5 goals 13.0% 12.2% 12.2% 1.00× 8.20
Kawasaki Frontale over 3.5 goals 3.7% 2.5% 4.1% 0.62× 39.78
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 1.5 in 1st half 91.1% 93.9% — — 1.07
Kawasaki Frontale under 0.5 in 1st half 60.9% 63.1% — — 1.58
Kawasaki Frontale over 0.5 in 1st half 39.1% 36.9% — — 2.71
Kawasaki Frontale over 1.5 in 1st half 8.9% 6.1% — — 16.33
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale scores equally in both 40.6% 43.6% — — 2.30
Kawasaki Frontale scores more in 2nd half 37.5% 37.4% — — 2.68
Kawasaki Frontale scores more in 1st half 21.9% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol (away no bet) 69.6% 66.5% 62.2% 1.07× 1.50
Draw (away no bet) 30.4% 33.5% 37.8% 0.89× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale even goals 54.2% 52.6% 54.2% 0.97× 1.90
Kawasaki Frontale odd goals 45.8% 47.4% 45.8% 1.03× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 80.4% 83.1% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 19.6% 16.9% — — 5.90
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 70.3% 67.5% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 29.7% 32.5% — — 3.08
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 62.4% 59.9% — — 1.67
Kashiwa Reysol to score 2+ in a row 45.3% 46.0% — — 2.17
Kawasaki Frontale to score 2+ in a row 25.2% 24.9% — — 4.02
Either team to score 3+ in a row 24.7% 19.6% — — 5.11
Kashiwa Reysol to score 3+ in a row 18.5% 16.2% — — 6.18
Kawasaki Frontale to score 3+ in a row 6.7% 5.5% — — 18.23
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol corners (+3.5) 91.2% 89.6% — — 1.12
Kashiwa Reysol corners (+2.5) 85.7% 84.5% — — 1.18
Kashiwa Reysol corners (+1.5) 78.2% 74.8% — — 1.34
Kawasaki Frontale corners (+3.5) 74.6% 70.8% — — 1.41
Kawasaki Frontale corners (+2.5) 64.9% 61.9% — — 1.62
Kawasaki Frontale corners (+1.5) 53.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
Kashiwa Reysol corners (-1.5) 46.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
Kashiwa Reysol corners (-2.5) 35.1% 38.1% — — 2.62
Kashiwa Reysol corners (-3.5) 25.4% 29.2% — — 3.42
Kawasaki Frontale corners (-1.5) 21.8% 25.2% — — 3.97
Kawasaki Frontale corners (-2.5) 14.3% 15.5% — — 6.45
Kawasaki Frontale corners (-3.5) 8.8% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 42.0% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 31.0% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 27.1% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 80.5% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 72.9% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 69.1% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 63.7% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 58.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 53.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 46.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 42.0% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 36.3% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 30.9% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 27.1% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 19.5% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.3% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.72
1-0 8.7% 7.4% 12.8% 0.58× 13.51
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.51
1-2 6.5% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.51
2-0 7.8% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
0-1 6.0% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
2-2 6.0% 7.4% 5.2% 1.44× 13.51
3-1 5.9% 7.4% 3.0% 2.49× 13.51
0-0 4.4% 1.7% 7.0% 0.24× 58.29
0-2 3.6% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.30
0-3 1.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.31
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.32
1-3 2.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.73× 58.30
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
2-3 2.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.31
2-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.31
3-0 4.7% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.29
3-2 3.6% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.30
3-3 1.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 58.32
4-0 2.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.37× 58.31
4-1 2.7% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.30
4-2 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.10× 58.31
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.32
Any other score 4.7% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.29
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol (2nd half DNB) 62.0% 62.9% — — 1.59
Kawasaki Frontale (2nd half DNB) 38.0% 37.1% — — 2.70
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol leading at HT (DNB) 64.8% 66.8% — — 1.50
Kawasaki Frontale leading at HT (DNB) 35.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol or Kawasaki Frontale (12) 77.6% 75.5% 73.9% 1.02× 1.32
Kashiwa Reysol or draw (1X) 73.8% 72.1% 68.9% 1.05× 1.39
Kawasaki Frontale or draw (X2) 48.6% 48.5% 57.0% 0.85× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol or draw at HT 78.7% 79.6% — — 1.26
Kawasaki Frontale or draw at HT 60.8% 61.0% — — 1.64
Kashiwa Reysol or Kawasaki Frontale at HT 60.4% 61.0% — — 1.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol or draw (1UP) 73.8% 79.7% — — 1.26
Kawasaki Frontale or draw (1UP) 48.6% 53.1% — — 1.88
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol or draw in 2nd half 74.3% 74.0% — — 1.35
Kashiwa Reysol or Kawasaki Frontale in 2nd half 67.7% 66.0% — — 1.52
Kawasaki Frontale or draw in 2nd half 58.1% 58.1% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.4% 58.9% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 40.6% 41.1% — — 2.44
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol (DNB) 66.3% 67.4% 58.0% 1.16× 1.48
Kawasaki Frontale (DNB) 33.7% 32.6% 42.0% 0.78× 3.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol to score first 56.9% 62.4% — — 1.60
Kawasaki Frontale to score first 38.7% 32.8% — — 3.05
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% — — 22.75
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 59.4% 55.0% 50.5% 1.09× 1.82
Not both teams to score 40.6% 45.0% 49.5% 0.91× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 49.1% 44.3% 37.2% 1.19× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 30.5% 34.5% 40.2% 0.86× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 10.3% 12.4% 13.4% 0.92× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 10.1% 12.4% 9.5% 1.30× 8.09
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 80.8% 82.6% 86.3% 0.96× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 19.2% 17.4% 13.8% 1.26× 5.75
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.1% 67.2% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.9% 32.8% — — 3.05
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.1% 54.7% — — 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 26.7% 26.8% — — 3.73
Both score 1st half only 14.0% 10.8% — — 9.28
Both score in both halves 7.2% 6.8% — — 14.74
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 78.7% 81.1% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 21.3% 18.9% — — 5.28
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 60.0% 59.2% — — 1.69
A half without a goal 40.0% 40.8% — — 2.45
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.0% 42.2% 47.2% 0.89× 2.37
4-6 goals 33.1% 30.7% 20.9% 1.47× 3.25
0-1 goals 19.1% 20.2% 29.5% 0.69× 4.94
7+ goals 3.7% 1.8% 2.7% 0.69× 54.19
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to score exactly 1 35.9% 35.9% 36.6% 0.98× 2.78
Kawasaki Frontale to score exactly 0 28.9% 27.4% 31.9% 0.86× 3.64
Kawasaki Frontale to score exactly 2 22.3% 22.3% 19.7% 1.13× 4.49
Kawasaki Frontale to score 3+ 13.0% 12.9% 12.2% 1.06× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol to score exactly 1 29.4% 26.6% 36.3% 0.73× 3.77
Kashiwa Reysol to score 3+ 27.7% 26.6% 14.8% 1.79× 3.77
Kashiwa Reysol to score exactly 2 26.9% 26.6% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
Kashiwa Reysol to score exactly 0 16.1% 18.8% 24.7% 0.76× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 39.6% 39.0% — — 2.56
Kashiwa Reysol leading at HT 39.2% 39.0% — — 2.56
Kawasaki Frontale leading at HT 21.3% 20.4% — — 4.91
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol -1: 2 48.6% 46.9% — — 2.13
Kashiwa Reysol -1: 1 28.6% 26.5% — — 3.77
Kashiwa Reysol -1: X 22.8% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (0:1) 48.6% 46.1% 57.0% 0.81× 2.17
Kashiwa Reysol (0:1) 28.6% 27.0% 18.1% 1.49× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 22.8% 24.2% 25.0% 0.97× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (0:2) 71.4% 75.6% 81.9% 0.92× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 15.6% 15.2% 12.0% 1.27× 6.57
Kashiwa Reysol (0:2) 13.0% 11.0% 6.3% 1.76× 9.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (0:3) 87.0% 90.6% 93.8% 0.97× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 8.1% 5.8% 4.2% 1.38× 17.23
Kashiwa Reysol (0:3) 4.9% 2.4% 2.2% 1.09× 41.92
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (0:4) 95.1% 98.1% 97.8% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.4% 1.2% 1.4% 0.87× 81.53
Kashiwa Reysol (0:4) 1.6% 1.2% 0.9% 1.31× 81.73
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol (1:0) 73.8% 72.5% 68.9% 1.05× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 15.5% 17.1% 19.4% 0.88× 5.85
Kawasaki Frontale (1:0) 10.6% 12.7% 11.9% 1.07× 7.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol (2:0) 89.4% 88.5% 88.1% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.2% 6.4% 6.1% 1.05× 15.66
Kawasaki Frontale (2:0) 3.5% 2.3% 5.9% 0.39× 43.71
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.5% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.7% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.8% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol to concede 71.1% 73.0% 68.1% 1.07× 1.37
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet 28.9% 27.0% 31.9% 0.85× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet in 1st half 60.9% 63.0% — — 1.59
Kashiwa Reysol to concede in 1st half 39.1% 37.0% — — 2.71
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol to concede in 2nd half 52.5% 52.6% — — 1.90
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet in 2nd half 47.5% 47.4% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol over 2.5 corners 86.0% 86.2% — — 1.16
Kashiwa Reysol over 3.5 corners 73.3% 71.9% — — 1.39
Kashiwa Reysol under 6.5 corners 69.3% 66.7% — — 1.50
Kashiwa Reysol over 4.5 corners 58.4% 57.5% — — 1.74
Kashiwa Reysol under 5.5 corners 56.3% 57.5% — — 1.74
Kashiwa Reysol over 5.5 corners 43.7% 42.5% — — 2.35
Kashiwa Reysol under 4.5 corners 41.6% 42.5% — — 2.35
Kashiwa Reysol over 6.5 corners 30.7% 33.3% — — 3.01
Kashiwa Reysol under 3.5 corners 26.7% 28.1% — — 3.56
Kashiwa Reysol under 2.5 corners 14.0% 13.8% — — 7.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol under 3.5 goals 88.7% 87.3% 94.8% 0.92× 1.15
Kashiwa Reysol over 0.5 goals 83.9% 82.2% 75.3% 1.09× 1.22
Kashiwa Reysol under 2.5 goals 72.3% 74.2% 85.2% 0.87× 1.35
Kashiwa Reysol over 1.5 goals 54.5% 53.2% 39.2% 1.36× 1.88
Kashiwa Reysol under 1.5 goals 45.5% 46.8% 60.8% 0.77× 2.14
Kashiwa Reysol over 2.5 goals 27.7% 25.8% 14.8% 1.74× 3.88
Kashiwa Reysol under 0.5 goals 16.1% 17.8% 24.7% 0.72× 5.62
Kashiwa Reysol over 3.5 goals 11.3% 12.7% 5.2% 2.47× 7.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol under 1.5 in 1st half 81.4% 84.0% — — 1.19
Kashiwa Reysol over 0.5 in 1st half 54.4% 50.8% — — 1.97
Kashiwa Reysol under 0.5 in 1st half 45.6% 49.2% — — 2.03
Kashiwa Reysol over 1.5 in 1st half 18.6% 16.0% — — 6.25
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol scores more in 2nd half 40.8% 41.6% — — 2.40
Kashiwa Reysol scores equally in both 32.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
Kashiwa Reysol scores more in 1st half 27.0% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (home no bet) 53.8% 51.5% 54.4% 0.95× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 46.2% 48.5% 45.6% 1.06× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol even goals 51.3% 50.7% 52.7% 0.96× 1.97
Kashiwa Reysol odd goals 48.7% 49.3% 47.3% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 27.7% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 1-0 21.8% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 13.8% 11.0% — — 9.08
HT 1-1 10.8% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 8.6% 6.9% — — 14.52
Any other HT score 5.9% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 2-1 4.3% 2.4% — — 42.13
HT 0-2 3.4% 2.4% — — 42.18
HT 1-2 2.7% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT 2-2 1.1% 2.4% — — 42.33
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol at HT / Kashiwa Reysol at FT 31.7% 32.8% — — 3.05
Draw at HT / Kashiwa Reysol at FT 16.7% 16.8% — — 5.97
Kawasaki Frontale at HT / Kawasaki Frontale at FT 13.7% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.5% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Kawasaki Frontale at FT 10.3% 12.6% — — 7.91
Kashiwa Reysol at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 6.0% — — 16.54
Kawasaki Frontale at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.85
Kawasaki Frontale at HT / Kashiwa Reysol at FT 3.0% 3.5% — — 28.91
Kashiwa Reysol at HT / Kawasaki Frontale at FT 2.2% 3.5% — — 28.94
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol to score last 56.9% 56.6% — — 1.77
Kawasaki Frontale to score last 38.7% 38.7% — — 2.58
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% — — 22.75
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.6% 95.5% — — 1.05
Kashiwa Reysol to lead by 1 at any time 66.9% 69.3% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.4% 50.6% — — 1.98
Kawasaki Frontale to lead by 1 at any time 45.5% 44.3% — — 2.26
Kashiwa Reysol to lead by 2 at any time 36.1% 34.8% — — 2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.9% 19.5% — — 5.13
Kawasaki Frontale to lead by 2 at any time 16.6% 14.8% — — 6.75
Kashiwa Reysol to lead by 3 at any time 15.9% 14.8% — — 6.76
Kawasaki Frontale to lead by 3 at any time 5.0% 1.7% — — 60.46
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol most corners 57.7% 55.6% — — 1.80
Kawasaki Frontale most corners 31.4% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 11.0% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.5% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 77.2% 78.7% 68.0% 1.16× 1.27
1-4 goals 76.0% 78.7% 81.7% 0.96× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.8% 72.3% 65.0% 1.11× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.2% 63.3% 59.2% 1.07× 1.58
1-3 goals 58.8% 59.1% 69.7% 0.85× 1.69
3-6 goals 55.5% 59.1% 44.1% 1.34× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.1% 53.1% 41.1% 1.29× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.0% 43.6% 47.2% 0.92× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.6% 39.2% 35.3% 1.11× 2.55
1-2 goals 36.4% 39.2% 46.6% 0.84× 2.55
4-6 goals 33.1% 35.2% 20.9% 1.68× 2.84
4-5 goals 27.7% 30.2% 18.0% 1.68× 3.31
5-6 goals 15.9% 18.8% 8.9% 2.11× 5.31
7+ goals 3.7% 2.6% 2.7% 0.96× 39.10
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol never behind 50.1% 62.2% — — 1.61
Kawasaki Frontale never behind 28.7% 29.9% — — 3.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.6% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.4% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.8% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.2% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.2% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.8% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.6% 95.4% 93.0% 1.03× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 90.9% 92.3% 94.4% 0.98× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 80.9% 82.3% 70.5% 1.17× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 80.4% 82.3% 88.6% 0.93× 1.22
Under 3.5 goals 63.2% 61.7% 76.6% 0.81× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 59.2% 58.6% 46.6% 1.26× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 40.8% 41.4% 53.4% 0.77× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 36.8% 38.3% 23.4% 1.63× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 19.6% 17.7% 11.4% 1.55× 5.65
Under 1.5 goals 19.1% 17.7% 29.5% 0.60× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 9.1% 7.7% 5.6% 1.38× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 4.4% 4.6% 7.0% 0.65× 21.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.1% 97.2% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 89.8% 86.8% 94.0% 0.92× 1.15
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 76.3% 75.9% 87.0% 0.87× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 75.6% 75.9% 61.2% 1.24× 1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.6% 51.9% 69.5% 0.75× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.4% 48.1% 30.5% 1.58× 2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 24.4% 24.1% 38.8% 0.62× 4.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 23.7% 24.1% 13.0% 1.86× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.2% 13.2% 6.0% 2.22× 7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.9% 2.8% 2.7% 1.03× 35.57
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.1% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 72.3% 71.4% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 63.3% 63.4% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 36.7% 36.6% — — 2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half 27.7% 28.6% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.9% 11.0% — — 9.07
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.3% 83.0% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.4% 77.8% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 53.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.6% 22.2% — — 4.51
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.7% 17.0% — — 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale not to score in both halves 79.5% 78.5% — — 1.27
Kashiwa Reysol not to score in both halves 64.8% 63.5% — — 1.57
Kashiwa Reysol to score in both halves 35.2% 36.5% — — 2.74
Kawasaki Frontale to score in both halves 20.5% 21.5% — — 4.65
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 59.4% 58.6% 50.5% 1.16× 1.71
Only Kashiwa Reysol scores 24.5% 22.3% 25.0% 0.89× 4.49
Only Kawasaki Frontale scores 11.7% 11.0% 17.8% 0.62× 9.07
Neither team scores 4.4% 4.6% 7.0% 0.66× 21.54
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 21.7% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.2% 17.5% 12.2% 1.43× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.7% 12.1% 22.7% 0.54× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 10.5% 12.1% 5.9% 2.04× 8.26
6 or more goals 9.1% 7.6% 5.6% 1.35× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.4% 4.5% 7.0% 0.64× 22.33
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.7% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 27.7% 28.6% — — 3.49
2 goals in 1st half 22.8% 21.4% — — 4.67
3+ goals in 1st half 13.9% 10.9% — — 9.15
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 53.2% 51.3% — — 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 30.1% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 16.7% 16.7% — — 5.98
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale not to win both halves 94.6% 94.2% — — 1.06
Kashiwa Reysol not to win both halves 83.6% 83.5% — — 1.20
Kashiwa Reysol to win both halves 16.4% 16.5% — — 6.07
Kawasaki Frontale to win both halves 5.4% 5.8% — — 17.27
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol to win either half 64.7% 65.1% — — 1.54
Kawasaki Frontale to win neither half 58.5% 59.1% — — 1.69
Kawasaki Frontale to win either half 41.5% 40.9% — — 2.44
Kashiwa Reysol to win neither half 35.3% 34.9% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale not to win to nil 88.3% 88.1% 82.2% 1.07× 1.14
Kashiwa Reysol not to win to nil 75.5% 78.1% 75.0% 1.04× 1.28
Kashiwa Reysol to win to nil 24.5% 21.9% 25.0% 0.88× 4.57
Kawasaki Frontale to win to nil 11.7% 11.9% 17.8% 0.67× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashiwa Reysol by 1 22.8% 24.1% 25.0% 0.96× 4.15
Draw 22.4% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
Kawasaki Frontale by 1 15.5% 17.0% 19.4% 0.88× 5.87
Kashiwa Reysol by 2 15.6% 17.0% 12.0% 1.42× 5.87
Kashiwa Reysol by 3+ 13.0% 11.8% 6.3% 1.88× 8.50
Kawasaki Frontale by 2 7.2% 7.2% 6.1% 1.18× 13.91
Kawasaki Frontale by 3+ 3.5% 2.7% 5.9% 0.46× 36.86
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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