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Kasimpasa v Alanyaspor — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 November 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627

TUR-Super Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Kasimpasa win
39.1%
model 38.7%
Draw
30.5%
model 31.1%
Alanyaspor win
30.5%
model 30.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.6%
  2. 0-0 11.5%
  3. 1-0 11.0%
  4. 0-1 9.3%
  5. 2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.540.3% Under 2.559.7%
BTTS yes47.8% BTTS no52.2%
Kasimpasa 1+70.9% Kasimpasa 2+35.0%
Alanyaspor 1+65.4% Alanyaspor 2+28.7%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Under 3.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 69%
81.0% fair odds 1.23
moderate signal · 1833 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Alanyaspor (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 79%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Kasimpasa.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Kasimpasa have an estimated 39.1% win probability, against 30.5% for the draw and 30.5% for Alanyaspor. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.23 for Kasimpasa and 1.06 for Alanyaspor.

Why Kasimpasa

Nothing in the data singles out Kasimpasa.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.5%. A combined 2.30 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.23 to 1.06. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Alanyaspor can win

Nothing in the data singles out Alanyaspor.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Kasimpasa, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Alanyaspor, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Kasimpasa: 34% possession, 8.4 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Alanyaspor: 41% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Kasimpasa are the model's most likely outcome at 39.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.6%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.23–1.06 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.29–1.02 1-1 14% 41% 48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa to win 41.0% 42.9% 45.4% 0.95× 2.33
Draw 30.8% 30.4% 25.9% 1.17× 3.29
Alanyaspor to win 28.2% 27.9% 28.9% 0.97× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa & not both score 24.6% 21.8% 22.4% 0.98× 4.58
Draw & both teams score 19.5% 18.0% 18.1% 0.99× 5.56
Kasimpasa & both teams score 16.4% 18.0% 23.1% 0.78× 5.57
Alanyaspor & not both score 16.3% 18.0% 14.4% 1.24× 5.57
Alanyaspor & both teams score 11.9% 13.3% 14.6% 0.91× 7.54
Draw & not both score 11.3% 13.3% 8.0% 1.67× 7.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa & under 3.5 31.5% 30.7% 29.5% 1.04× 3.25
Kasimpasa & over 1.5 29.7% 26.1% 36.2% 0.72× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 25.8% 26.1% 20.3% 1.28× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 25.8% 26.1% 20.3% 1.28× 3.84
Alanyaspor & under 3.5 22.5% 21.6% 19.6% 1.10× 4.63
Kasimpasa & over 2.5 21.4% 21.6% 30.3% 0.71× 4.63
Kasimpasa & under 2.5 19.6% 18.0% 15.2% 1.19× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.5% 18.0% 18.1% 0.99× 5.56
Alanyaspor & over 1.5 19.4% 18.0% 22.4% 0.80× 5.56
Alanyaspor & over 2.5 14.2% 12.8% 18.1% 0.71× 7.79
Alanyaspor & under 2.5 14.0% 12.8% 10.9% 1.18× 7.79
Kasimpasa & under 1.5 11.4% 12.8% 9.3% 1.38× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 11.3% 12.8% 8.0% 1.61× 7.79
Kasimpasa & over 3.5 9.5% 7.9% 16.1% 0.49× 12.63
Alanyaspor & under 1.5 8.8% 7.9% 6.6% 1.20× 12.63
Alanyaspor & over 3.5 5.7% 7.9% 9.4% 0.84× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.0% 4.8% 5.7% 0.84× 20.81
Draw & over 3.5 5.0% 4.8% 5.7% 0.84× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa (1UP) 55.6% 58.0% — — 1.72
Alanyaspor (1UP) 44.2% 38.8% — — 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa (2UP) 41.0% 47.0% — — 2.13
Alanyaspor (2UP) 28.2% 25.3% — — 3.95
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 40.1% 41.7% — — 2.40
Kasimpasa to win 2nd half 33.6% 34.1% — — 2.93
Alanyaspor to win 2nd half 26.4% 26.0% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.3% 86.8% — — 1.15
Alanyaspor under 0.5 in 2nd half 54.1% 52.8% — — 1.90
Alanyaspor over 0.5 in 2nd half 45.9% 47.2% — — 2.12
Alanyaspor over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.7% 13.2% — — 7.58
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa under 1.5 in 2nd half 83.3% 82.7% — — 1.21
Kasimpasa over 0.5 in 2nd half 51.9% 55.1% — — 1.81
Kasimpasa under 0.5 in 2nd half 48.1% 44.9% — — 2.23
Kasimpasa over 1.5 in 2nd half 16.7% 17.3% — — 5.79
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (+2.5) 93.3% 92.1% 90.0% 1.02× 1.09
Alanyaspor (+1.5) 80.8% 82.5% 78.5% 1.05× 1.21
Kasimpasa (+0.5) 71.8% 73.6% 71.1% 1.04× 1.36
Alanyaspor (+0.5) 59.0% 57.0% 54.6% 1.04× 1.75
Kasimpasa (-0.5) 41.0% 43.0% 45.4% 0.95× 2.33
Alanyaspor (-0.5) 28.2% 26.4% 28.9% 0.91× 3.79
Kasimpasa (-1.5) 19.2% 17.5% 21.5% 0.81× 5.73
Kasimpasa (-2.5) 6.7% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede 72.3% 76.7% 77.8% 0.99× 1.30
Alanyaspor clean sheet 27.7% 23.3% 22.2% 1.05× 4.29
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor clean sheet in 1st half 57.5% 57.0% — — 1.75
Alanyaspor to concede in 1st half 42.5% 43.0% — — 2.33
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede in 2nd half 51.9% 54.8% — — 1.83
Alanyaspor clean sheet in 2nd half 48.1% 45.2% — — 2.21
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 6.5 corners 82.5% 81.4% — — 1.23
Alanyaspor over 2.5 corners 75.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
Alanyaspor under 5.5 corners 72.1% 71.6% — — 1.40
Alanyaspor under 4.5 corners 58.3% 57.2% — — 1.75
Alanyaspor over 3.5 corners 58.1% 57.2% — — 1.75
Alanyaspor under 3.5 corners 41.9% 42.8% — — 2.33
Alanyaspor over 4.5 corners 41.7% 42.8% — — 2.33
Alanyaspor over 5.5 corners 27.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
Alanyaspor under 2.5 corners 25.1% 28.4% — — 3.52
Alanyaspor over 6.5 corners 17.5% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 3.5 goals 98.0% 97.5% 95.3% 1.02× 1.03
Alanyaspor under 2.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 86.2% 1.07× 1.08
Alanyaspor under 1.5 goals 72.7% 71.8% 65.2% 1.10× 1.39
Alanyaspor over 0.5 goals 64.1% 63.2% 69.8% 0.91× 1.58
Alanyaspor under 0.5 goals 35.9% 36.8% 30.2% 1.22× 2.72
Alanyaspor over 1.5 goals 27.3% 28.2% 34.8% 0.81× 3.55
Alanyaspor over 2.5 goals 8.5% 7.7% 13.8% 0.55× 13.05
Alanyaspor over 3.5 goals 2.0% 2.5% 4.7% 0.53× 39.96
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 1.5 in 1st half 93.6% 93.8% — — 1.07
Alanyaspor under 0.5 in 1st half 66.4% 69.8% — — 1.43
Alanyaspor over 0.5 in 1st half 33.6% 30.2% — — 3.32
Alanyaspor over 1.5 in 1st half 6.4% 6.2% — — 16.23
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor scores equally in both 45.5% 48.1% — — 2.08
Alanyaspor scores more in 2nd half 34.1% 33.3% — — 3.01
Alanyaspor scores more in 1st half 20.4% 21.8% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa (away no bet) 57.1% 57.4% 63.6% 0.90× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 42.9% 42.6% 36.4% 1.17× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor even goals 56.5% 56.9% 54.5% 1.04× 1.76
Alanyaspor odd goals 43.6% 43.1% 45.5% 0.95× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.2% 91.7% — — 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.8% 8.3% — — 12.08
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 55.0% 51.1% — — 1.96
Both halves under 1.5 goals 45.0% 48.9% — — 2.05
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 47.2% 46.1% — — 2.17
Kasimpasa to score 2+ in a row 30.3% 29.0% — — 3.45
Alanyaspor to score 2+ in a row 20.9% 19.6% — — 5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.5% 12.1% — — 8.28
Kasimpasa to score 3+ in a row 9.5% 5.6% — — 17.91
Alanyaspor to score 3+ in a row 5.1% 5.5% — — 18.26
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor corners (+3.5) 88.2% 84.5% — — 1.18
Kasimpasa corners (+3.5) 83.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
Alanyaspor corners (+2.5) 81.3% 79.8% — — 1.25
Kasimpasa corners (+2.5) 74.5% 70.7% — — 1.41
Alanyaspor corners (+1.5) 71.9% 70.7% — — 1.41
Kasimpasa corners (+1.5) 63.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
Alanyaspor corners (-1.5) 36.2% 38.2% — — 2.62
Kasimpasa corners (-1.5) 28.1% 29.3% — — 3.42
Alanyaspor corners (-2.5) 25.5% 29.3% — — 3.42
Kasimpasa corners (-2.5) 18.8% 20.2% — — 4.94
Alanyaspor corners (-3.5) 17.0% 20.2% — — 4.95
Kasimpasa corners (-3.5) 11.8% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 57.1% 46.6% — — 2.15
9-11 corners 26.8% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 16.1% 22.6% — — 4.43
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 89.3% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 83.9% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 76.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 67.8% 67.8% — — 1.47
Under 8.5 corners 57.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 7.5 corners 54.7% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 7.5 corners 45.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 8.5 corners 42.9% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 9.5 corners 32.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 23.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 16.1% 19.3% — — 5.17
Over 12.5 corners 10.7% 16.9% — — 5.91
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.5% 11.5% 12.5% 0.92× 8.71
0-0 11.3% 11.5% 8.0% 1.44× 8.72
1-0 11.4% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.72
0-1 8.8% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
2-1 8.4% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.51
1-2 6.7% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
2-0 8.2% 7.4% 6.0% 1.23× 13.51
0-2 5.2% 7.4% 4.4% 1.68× 13.51
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 58.31
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.46× 58.32
1-3 2.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.31
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.66× 58.32
2-2 4.3% 1.7% 4.6% 0.38× 58.29
2-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.31
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.94× 58.32
3-0 3.5% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.30
3-1 3.6% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.30
3-2 1.8% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.29× 58.32
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 3.88× 58.32
4-0 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 0.97× 58.31
4-1 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.46× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.33× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 11.64× 58.32
Any other score 1.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa (2nd half DNB) 56.0% 59.6% — — 1.68
Alanyaspor (2nd half DNB) 44.0% 40.4% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa leading at HT (DNB) 59.3% 56.6% — — 1.77
Alanyaspor leading at HT (DNB) 40.7% 43.4% — — 2.30
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa or draw (1X) 71.8% 72.1% 71.1% 1.01× 1.39
Kasimpasa or Alanyaspor (12) 69.2% 69.6% 74.1% 0.94× 1.44
Alanyaspor or draw (X2) 59.0% 57.1% 54.6% 1.04× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa or draw at HT 78.8% 79.5% — — 1.26
Alanyaspor or draw at HT 69.1% 67.2% — — 1.49
Kasimpasa or Alanyaspor at HT 52.2% 47.7% — — 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa or draw (1UP) 71.8% 79.5% — — 1.26
Alanyaspor or draw (1UP) 59.0% 63.1% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa or draw in 2nd half 73.6% 74.0% — — 1.35
Alanyaspor or draw in 2nd half 66.4% 65.9% — — 1.52
Kasimpasa or Alanyaspor in 2nd half 59.9% 58.3% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 67.3% 68.1% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 32.7% 31.9% — — 3.14
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa (DNB) 59.3% 58.1% 61.1% 0.95× 1.72
Alanyaspor (DNB) 40.7% 41.9% 38.9% 1.08× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa to score first 49.3% 46.1% — — 2.17
Alanyaspor to score first 39.3% 32.9% — — 3.04
No goal scored 11.3% 9.6% — — 10.39
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.2% 51.3% 44.5% 1.15× 1.95
Both teams to score 47.8% 48.7% 55.5% 0.88× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 44.9% 41.6% 33.7% 1.23× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 33.3% 34.5% 43.2% 0.80× 2.90
Both score & under 2.5 14.5% 12.4% 12.5% 0.99× 8.08
Not both score & over 2.5 7.4% 8.3% 10.9% 0.76× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.0% 85.6% 83.4% 1.03× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.0% 14.4% 16.6% 0.86× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.7% 74.7% — — 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.3% 25.3% — — 3.95
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.6% 66.0% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 20.9% 20.9% — — 4.79
Both score 1st half only 11.1% 10.8% — — 9.30
Both score in both halves 3.4% 4.9% — — 20.41
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.5% 14.8% — — 6.77
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 53.6% 53.0% — — 1.89
A goal in each half 46.4% 47.0% — — 2.13
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.3% 47.2% 45.7% 1.03× 2.12
0-1 goals 31.5% 30.7% 23.6% 1.30× 3.26
4-6 goals 19.3% 20.2% 28.4% 0.71× 4.95
7+ goals 1.0% 1.8% 2.7% 0.69× 54.44
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.9% 35.2% 1.02× 2.78
Alanyaspor to score exactly 0 35.9% 35.9% 30.2% 1.19× 2.78
Alanyaspor to score exactly 2 18.8% 19.6% 21.1% 0.93× 5.11
Alanyaspor to score 3+ 8.5% 8.6% 13.8% 0.62× 11.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa to score exactly 1 35.6% 35.5% 32.0% 1.11× 2.81
Kasimpasa to score exactly 0 27.7% 26.6% 22.2% 1.19× 3.77
Kasimpasa to score exactly 2 22.8% 23.3% 23.9% 0.98× 4.29
Kasimpasa to score 3+ 13.9% 14.3% 22.2% 0.64× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.8% 52.3% — — 1.91
Kasimpasa leading at HT 30.9% 32.8% — — 3.05
Alanyaspor leading at HT 21.2% 20.5% — — 4.88
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa -1: 2 59.0% 56.8% — — 1.76
Kasimpasa -1: X 21.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
Kasimpasa -1: 1 19.2% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:1) 59.0% 55.8% 54.6% 1.02× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 21.8% 24.2% 24.0% 1.01× 4.13
Kasimpasa (0:1) 19.2% 17.8% 21.5% 0.83× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:2) 80.8% 82.9% 78.5% 1.06× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 12.4% 11.0% 11.6% 0.94× 9.10
Kasimpasa (0:2) 6.7% 7.7% 10.0% 0.77× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:3) 93.3% 92.7% 90.0% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.8% 2.4% 6.6% 0.36× 42.01
Kasimpasa (0:3) 1.9% 2.4% 3.5% 0.67× 42.14
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:4) 98.1% 98.1% 96.5% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.5% 1.2% 2.5% 0.49× 82.01
Kasimpasa (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.03× 82.12
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa (1:0) 71.8% 72.4% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 17.1% 17.1% 15.9% 1.08× 5.85
Alanyaspor (1:0) 11.1% 12.7% 13.1% 0.97× 7.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa (2:0) 88.9% 88.5% 86.9% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.9% 6.4% 7.8% 0.82× 15.66
Alanyaspor (2:0) 3.2% 2.3% 5.4% 0.42× 43.69
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.4% 46.3% — — 2.16
Halves equal 29.7% 26.2% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 25.8% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa to concede 64.1% 63.7% 69.8% 0.91× 1.57
Kasimpasa clean sheet 35.9% 36.3% 30.2% 1.20× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa clean sheet in 1st half 66.4% 70.2% — — 1.43
Kasimpasa to concede in 1st half 33.6% 29.8% — — 3.35
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa clean sheet in 2nd half 54.1% 52.9% — — 1.89
Kasimpasa to concede in 2nd half 45.9% 47.1% — — 2.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa under 6.5 corners 86.8% 86.2% — — 1.16
Kasimpasa under 5.5 corners 77.7% 76.5% — — 1.31
Kasimpasa over 2.5 corners 70.0% 66.7% — — 1.50
Kasimpasa under 4.5 corners 64.7% 62.3% — — 1.61
Kasimpasa over 3.5 corners 51.9% 52.6% — — 1.90
Kasimpasa under 3.5 corners 48.1% 47.4% — — 2.11
Kasimpasa over 4.5 corners 35.3% 37.7% — — 2.65
Kasimpasa under 2.5 corners 30.0% 33.3% — — 3.01
Kasimpasa over 5.5 corners 22.3% 23.5% — — 4.26
Kasimpasa over 6.5 corners 13.2% 13.8% — — 7.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa under 3.5 goals 95.8% 96.4% 92.6% 1.04× 1.04
Kasimpasa under 2.5 goals 86.1% 87.2% 77.8% 1.12× 1.15
Kasimpasa over 0.5 goals 72.3% 74.2% 77.8% 0.95× 1.35
Kasimpasa under 1.5 goals 63.2% 63.6% 54.1% 1.18× 1.57
Kasimpasa over 1.5 goals 36.8% 36.4% 46.0% 0.79× 2.75
Kasimpasa under 0.5 goals 27.7% 25.8% 22.2% 1.16× 3.88
Kasimpasa over 2.5 goals 13.9% 12.8% 22.2% 0.57× 7.84
Kasimpasa over 3.5 goals 4.2% 3.6% 7.4% 0.49× 27.49
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa under 1.5 in 1st half 89.3% 90.2% — — 1.11
Kasimpasa under 0.5 in 1st half 57.5% 56.9% — — 1.76
Kasimpasa over 0.5 in 1st half 42.5% 43.1% — — 2.32
Kasimpasa over 1.5 in 1st half 10.7% 9.8% — — 10.25
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa scores equally in both 40.0% 42.0% — — 2.38
Kasimpasa scores more in 2nd half 35.5% 37.8% — — 2.65
Kasimpasa scores more in 1st half 24.4% 21.2% — — 4.73
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 52.2% 51.4% 47.3% 1.09× 1.95
Alanyaspor (home no bet) 47.8% 48.6% 52.7% 0.92× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa even goals 53.8% 50.7% 51.0% 1.00× 1.97
Kasimpasa odd goals 46.2% 49.3% 49.0% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 38.4% 39.3% — — 2.55
HT 1-0 20.9% 24.3% — — 4.12
HT 0-1 15.4% 18.5% — — 5.42
HT 1-1 8.9% 6.9% — — 14.44
HT 2-0 5.8% 6.9% — — 14.48
HT 0-2 3.2% 2.4% — — 42.00
Any other HT score 2.7% 2.4% — — 42.03
HT 2-1 2.4% 2.4% — — 42.05
HT 1-2 1.8% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.4% — — 42.18
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa at HT / Kasimpasa at FT 23.8% 21.7% — — 4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.6% 21.6% — — 4.62
Draw at HT / Kasimpasa at FT 15.3% 16.8% — — 5.97
Alanyaspor at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 14.6% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 11.9% 12.6% — — 7.91
Kasimpasa at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.1% — — 16.49
Alanyaspor at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.80
Alanyaspor at HT / Kasimpasa at FT 1.9% 3.5% — — 28.90
Kasimpasa at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 1.7% 3.5% — — 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa to score last 49.4% 46.6% — — 2.15
Alanyaspor to score last 39.2% 38.8% — — 2.58
No goal scored 11.3% 9.0% — — 11.08
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 88.7% 91.5% — — 1.09
Kasimpasa to lead by 1 at any time 55.6% 54.9% — — 1.82
Alanyaspor to lead by 1 at any time 44.2% 39.3% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 39.4% 34.8% — — 2.88
Kasimpasa to lead by 2 at any time 24.2% 19.6% — — 5.10
Alanyaspor to lead by 2 at any time 15.4% 14.9% — — 6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.3% 10.5% — — 9.52
Kasimpasa to lead by 3 at any time 8.2% 6.7% — — 14.93
Alanyaspor to lead by 3 at any time 4.1% 1.6% — — 60.97
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor most corners 48.3% 47.0% — — 2.13
Kasimpasa most corners 39.4% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 12.4% 10.4% — — 9.57
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.6% 87.4% 85.4% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.2% 83.4% 75.4% 1.11× 1.20
1-3 goals 68.4% 68.8% 61.3% 1.12× 1.45
2-6 goals 67.6% 68.8% 73.9% 0.93× 1.45
2-5 goals 65.5% 68.8% 69.8% 0.99× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.0% 63.3% 59.8% 1.06× 1.58
2-3 goals 48.3% 48.5% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
1-2 goals 48.0% 48.5% 38.3% 1.27× 2.06
3-6 goals 39.7% 39.2% 51.4% 0.76× 2.55
3-5 goals 37.6% 39.2% 47.3% 0.83× 2.55
3-4 goals 32.2% 35.2% 37.3% 0.94× 2.84
4-6 goals 19.3% 18.8% 28.4% 0.66× 5.31
4-5 goals 17.2% 18.8% 24.3% 0.77× 5.31
5-6 goals 7.5% 8.9% 14.3% 0.62× 11.27
7+ goals 1.0% 2.6% 2.7% 0.96× 39.21
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kasimpasa never behind 44.5% 48.7% — — 2.05
Alanyaspor never behind 33.0% 36.2% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.7% 50.9% 50.8% 1.00× 1.96
Even number of goals 53.3% 49.1% 49.2% 1.00× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.8% 57.7% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 42.2% 42.3% — — 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.0% 95.4% 93.2% 1.02× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 83.2% 1.11× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 88.7% 87.6% 92.0% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 79.8% 77.3% 69.1% 1.12× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 68.5% 66.3% 76.4% 0.87× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 59.4% 58.6% 46.1% 1.27× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 40.6% 41.4% 53.9% 0.77× 2.42
Under 1.5 goals 31.5% 33.7% 23.6% 1.43× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 20.2% 22.7% 30.9% 0.73× 4.41
Under 0.5 goals 11.3% 12.4% 8.0% 1.56× 8.06
Over 4.5 goals 8.5% 7.7% 16.8% 0.46× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 3.0% 4.6% 6.8% 0.68× 21.85
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.0% 97.2% 97.2% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.8% 97.2% 92.5% 1.05× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 90.4% 92.4% 80.4% 1.15× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 74.6% 72.4% 59.8% 1.21× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 56.3% 55.8% 69.6% 0.80× 1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 43.7% 44.2% 30.4% 1.45× 2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 25.4% 27.6% 40.2% 0.69× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.6% 7.6% 19.6% 0.39× 13.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.2% 2.8% 7.5% 0.37× 35.58
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.0% 2.8% 2.8% 1.01× 35.64
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.7% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 74.7% 71.5% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 38.4% 36.8% — — 2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half 25.3% 28.5% — — 3.51
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.3% 7.3% — — 13.64
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.6% 83.0% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.5% 77.6% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 60.6% 61.2% — — 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 39.4% 38.8% — — 2.58
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.5% 22.4% — — 4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.4% 17.0% — — 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor not to score in both halves 84.6% 84.3% — — 1.19
Kasimpasa not to score in both halves 78.0% 78.6% — — 1.27
Kasimpasa to score in both halves 22.0% 21.4% — — 4.66
Alanyaspor to score in both halves 15.4% 15.7% — — 6.36
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 47.8% 50.7% 55.5% 0.91× 1.97
Only Kasimpasa scores 24.6% 22.3% 22.4% 1.00× 4.49
Only Alanyaspor scores 16.3% 16.0% 14.4% 1.11× 6.24
Neither team scores 11.3% 11.0% 8.0% 1.39× 9.07
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.9% 24.9% 22.7% 1.10× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 20.1% 22.6% 15.8% 1.43× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 20.4% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 11.8% 12.1% 14.3% 0.85× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 11.3% 12.1% 8.0% 1.52× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 5.4% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.15
6 or more goals 3.0% 4.5% 6.8% 0.66× 22.37
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 38.4% 37.4% — — 2.68
1 goal in 1st half 36.3% 37.3% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 17.9% 15.6% — — 6.41
3+ goals in 1st half 7.3% 7.3% — — 13.64
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 39.4% 40.6% — — 2.46
1 goal in 2nd half 34.1% 33.8% — — 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 26.5% 29.4% — — 3.41
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor not to win both halves 94.2% 94.2% — — 1.06
Kasimpasa not to win both halves 89.4% 88.0% — — 1.14
Kasimpasa to win both halves 10.6% 12.0% — — 8.36
Alanyaspor to win both halves 5.8% 5.8% — — 17.18
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to win neither half 58.2% 59.2% — — 1.69
Kasimpasa to win either half 53.9% 54.3% — — 1.84
Kasimpasa to win neither half 46.1% 45.7% — — 2.19
Alanyaspor to win either half 41.8% 40.8% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor not to win to nil 83.7% 83.1% 85.6% 0.97× 1.20
Kasimpasa not to win to nil 75.4% 78.1% 77.6% 1.01× 1.28
Kasimpasa to win to nil 24.6% 21.9% 22.4% 0.98× 4.56
Alanyaspor to win to nil 16.3% 16.9% 14.4% 1.17× 5.92
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 30.8% 27.7% 25.9% 1.07× 3.61
Kasimpasa by 1 21.8% 24.1% 24.0% 1.00× 4.15
Alanyaspor by 1 17.1% 17.0% 15.9% 1.07× 5.87
Kasimpasa by 2 12.4% 11.8% 11.6% 1.01× 8.51
Alanyaspor by 2 7.9% 7.2% 7.8% 0.92× 13.90
Kasimpasa by 3+ 6.7% 7.2% 10.0% 0.72× 13.91
Alanyaspor by 3+ 3.2% 2.7% 5.4% 0.50× 36.83
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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