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Kawasaki Frontale v Gamba Osaka — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Kawasaki Frontale win
48.2%
model 46.1%
Draw
22.6%
model 22.9%
Gamba Osaka win
29.3%
model 31.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.3%
  2. 2-1 9.2%
  3. 1-0 7.8%
  4. 1-2 7.3%
  5. 2-0 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.560.6% Under 2.539.4%
BTTS yes61.7% BTTS no38.3%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+82.5% Kawasaki Frontale 2+51.9%
Gamba Osaka 1+75.1% Gamba Osaka 2+40.5%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
3-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 44%
58.5% fair odds 1.71
strong signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both teams to score 2+
GG/NG 2+ · usually 86%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 264 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Kawasaki Frontale.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Kawasaki Frontale have an estimated 48.2% win probability, against 29.3% for Gamba Osaka and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.74 for Kawasaki Frontale and 1.39 for Gamba Osaka.

Why Kawasaki Frontale

Nothing in the data singles out Kawasaki Frontale.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Gamba Osaka can win

Nothing in the data singles out Gamba Osaka.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Kawasaki Frontale, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Gamba Osaka, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Kawasaki Frontale: 48% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Gamba Osaka: 54% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kawasaki Frontale's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Kawasaki Frontale are the model's most likely outcome at 48.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.3%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.74–1.39 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.71–1.47 1-1 10% 62% 63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to win 43.7% 43.0% 43.0% 1.00× 2.33
Gamba Osaka to win 33.4% 30.4% 31.1% 0.98× 3.29
Draw 22.9% 24.5% 26.1% 0.94× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale & both teams score 24.6% 21.8% 18.1% 1.20× 4.58
Kawasaki Frontale & not both score 19.1% 18.0% 25.0% 0.72× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 18.9% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Gamba Osaka & both teams score 19.3% 18.0% 13.4% 1.34× 5.56
Gamba Osaka & not both score 14.2% 13.3% 17.8% 0.75× 7.54
Draw & not both score 3.9% 4.9% 7.0% 0.69× 20.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale & over 1.5 36.3% 34.9% 30.3% 1.15× 2.87
Kawasaki Frontale & over 2.5 30.3% 30.7% 23.1% 1.33× 3.25
Gamba Osaka & over 1.5 27.1% 26.1% 21.3% 1.23× 3.84
Kawasaki Frontale & under 3.5 25.8% 26.1% 33.1% 0.79× 3.84
Gamba Osaka & over 2.5 22.6% 21.6% 17.8% 1.21× 4.63
Gamba Osaka & under 3.5 20.7% 21.6% 23.4% 0.92× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Kawasaki Frontale & over 3.5 17.9% 18.0% 10.0% 1.80× 5.56
Kawasaki Frontale & under 2.5 13.4% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 14.1% 12.8% 20.3% 0.63× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 14.1% 12.8% 20.3% 0.63× 7.79
Gamba Osaka & over 3.5 12.7% 12.8% 7.8% 1.64× 7.79
Gamba Osaka & under 2.5 10.8% 12.8% 13.4% 0.96× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 8.7% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 8.7% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Kawasaki Frontale & under 1.5 7.3% 7.9% 12.8% 0.62× 12.63
Gamba Osaka & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 3.9% 4.8% 7.0% 0.68× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (1UP) 61.5% 62.7% — — 1.59
Gamba Osaka (1UP) 52.9% 52.5% — — 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (2UP) 43.7% 47.2% — — 2.12
Gamba Osaka (2UP) 33.4% 30.4% — — 3.29
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to win 2nd half 36.5% 36.2% — — 2.76
2nd half drawn 32.1% 34.1% — — 2.93
Gamba Osaka to win 2nd half 31.5% 34.1% — — 2.93
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.9% 79.2% — — 1.26
Gamba Osaka over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.6% 54.4% — — 1.84
Gamba Osaka under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.4% 45.6% — — 2.19
Gamba Osaka over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.1% 20.8% — — 4.81
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.5% 74.5% — — 1.34
Kawasaki Frontale over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.3% 62.8% — — 1.59
Kawasaki Frontale under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.7% 37.2% — — 2.69
Kawasaki Frontale over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.5% 25.5% — — 3.91
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (+2.5) 90.3% 92.1% 93.8% 0.98× 1.09
Gamba Osaka (+1.5) 77.2% 78.5% 81.9% 0.96× 1.27
Kawasaki Frontale (+0.5) 66.6% 68.7% 68.9% 1.00× 1.46
Gamba Osaka (+0.5) 56.3% 57.0% 57.0% 1.00× 1.75
Kawasaki Frontale (-0.5) 43.7% 43.0% 43.0% 1.00× 2.33
Gamba Osaka (-0.5) 33.4% 31.3% 31.1% 1.01× 3.19
Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5) 22.8% 21.5% 18.1% 1.19× 4.65
Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5) 9.7% 7.9% 6.3% 1.26× 12.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to concede 81.9% 81.5% 75.3% 1.08× 1.23
Gamba Osaka clean sheet 18.1% 18.5% 24.7% 0.75× 5.41
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to concede in 1st half 52.1% 50.5% — — 1.98
Gamba Osaka clean sheet in 1st half 47.9% 49.5% — — 2.02
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to concede in 2nd half 62.3% 61.3% — — 1.63
Gamba Osaka clean sheet in 2nd half 37.7% 38.7% — — 2.59
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka under 6.5 corners 84.3% 81.4% — — 1.23
Gamba Osaka over 2.5 corners 74.6% 71.6% — — 1.40
Gamba Osaka under 5.5 corners 74.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
Gamba Osaka under 4.5 corners 59.9% 57.2% — — 1.75
Gamba Osaka over 3.5 corners 57.1% 57.2% — — 1.75
Gamba Osaka under 3.5 corners 42.9% 42.8% — — 2.33
Gamba Osaka over 4.5 corners 40.1% 42.8% — — 2.34
Gamba Osaka over 5.5 corners 26.0% 28.4% — — 3.52
Gamba Osaka under 2.5 corners 25.4% 28.4% — — 3.52
Gamba Osaka over 6.5 corners 15.7% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka under 3.5 goals 93.8% 92.4% 95.9% 0.96× 1.08
Gamba Osaka under 2.5 goals 81.6% 81.5% 87.8% 0.93× 1.23
Gamba Osaka over 0.5 goals 77.0% 76.2% 68.1% 1.12× 1.31
Gamba Osaka under 1.5 goals 56.8% 59.4% 68.3% 0.87× 1.68
Gamba Osaka over 1.5 goals 43.2% 40.6% 31.7% 1.28× 2.46
Gamba Osaka under 0.5 goals 23.0% 23.8% 31.9% 0.75× 4.21
Gamba Osaka over 2.5 goals 18.4% 18.5% 12.2% 1.52× 5.40
Gamba Osaka over 3.5 goals 6.2% 7.7% 4.1% 1.88× 13.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka under 1.5 in 1st half 88.2% 89.4% — — 1.12
Gamba Osaka under 0.5 in 1st half 55.5% 61.9% — — 1.62
Gamba Osaka over 0.5 in 1st half 44.5% 38.1% — — 2.63
Gamba Osaka over 1.5 in 1st half 11.8% 10.6% — — 9.47
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka scores more in 2nd half 40.4% 43.4% — — 2.30
Gamba Osaka scores equally in both 36.6% 37.5% — — 2.67
Gamba Osaka scores more in 1st half 23.1% 21.8% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (away no bet) 65.6% 66.3% 62.2% 1.07× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 34.4% 33.7% 37.8% 0.89× 2.97
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka even goals 52.6% 52.6% 54.2% 0.97× 1.90
Gamba Osaka odd goals 47.4% 47.4% 45.8% 1.04× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 78.9% 81.3% — — 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 21.1% 18.7% — — 5.34
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 72.3% 67.7% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 27.7% 32.3% — — 3.09
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 63.5% 60.0% — — 1.67
Kawasaki Frontale to score 2+ in a row 40.6% 38.6% — — 2.59
Gamba Osaka to score 2+ in a row 32.4% 29.1% — — 3.44
Either team to score 3+ in a row 24.7% 19.7% — — 5.09
Kawasaki Frontale to score 3+ in a row 15.1% 16.2% — — 6.19
Gamba Osaka to score 3+ in a row 10.2% 12.0% — — 8.36
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale corners (+3.5) 90.5% 89.6% — — 1.12
Kawasaki Frontale corners (+2.5) 84.7% 79.8% — — 1.25
Kawasaki Frontale corners (+1.5) 76.9% 74.8% — — 1.34
Gamba Osaka corners (+3.5) 76.2% 74.8% — — 1.34
Gamba Osaka corners (+2.5) 66.7% 65.9% — — 1.52
Gamba Osaka corners (+1.5) 55.7% 57.1% — — 1.75
Kawasaki Frontale corners (-1.5) 44.3% 42.9% — — 2.33
Kawasaki Frontale corners (-2.5) 33.3% 34.1% — — 2.93
Kawasaki Frontale corners (-3.5) 23.8% 25.2% — — 3.97
Gamba Osaka corners (-1.5) 23.1% 25.2% — — 3.97
Gamba Osaka corners (-2.5) 15.3% 20.2% — — 4.95
Gamba Osaka corners (-3.5) 9.5% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 42.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 30.9% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 26.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 81.2% 80.6% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 73.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 68.4% 67.8% — — 1.47
Under 10.5 corners 64.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 57.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 54.1% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 45.9% 46.9% — — 2.13
Under 8.5 corners 42.8% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 10.5 corners 35.4% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 31.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 26.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 18.8% 19.4% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.2% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.72
2-1 8.9% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.51
1-0 7.3% 7.4% 12.8% 0.58× 13.51
1-2 7.7% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.51
2-2 6.6% 7.4% 5.2% 1.44× 13.51
0-1 6.3% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
2-0 6.1% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
3-1 5.1% 7.4% 3.0% 2.49× 13.51
0-0 3.9% 1.7% 7.0% 0.24× 58.30
0-2 4.5% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.29
0-3 2.2% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.31
0-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.31
1-3 3.8% 1.7% 2.3% 0.73× 58.30
1-4 1.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
2-3 3.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.30
2-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.31
3-0 3.5% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.30
3-2 3.7% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.30
3-3 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
3-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 58.32
4-0 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.37× 58.31
4-1 2.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.31
4-2 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.10× 58.31
4-3 0.8% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.31
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.32
Any other score 4.7% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.29
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (2nd half DNB) 53.7% 53.6% — — 1.87
Gamba Osaka (2nd half DNB) 46.3% 46.4% — — 2.16
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale leading at HT (DNB) 57.4% 56.3% — — 1.78
Gamba Osaka leading at HT (DNB) 42.6% 43.7% — — 2.29
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale or Gamba Osaka (12) 77.1% 75.5% 73.9% 1.02× 1.32
Kawasaki Frontale or draw (1X) 66.6% 69.6% 68.9% 1.01× 1.44
Gamba Osaka or draw (X2) 56.3% 57.0% 57.0% 1.00× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale or draw at HT 74.2% 74.8% — — 1.34
Gamba Osaka or draw at HT 65.2% 67.0% — — 1.49
Kawasaki Frontale or Gamba Osaka at HT 60.6% 60.9% — — 1.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale or draw (1UP) 66.6% 76.3% — — 1.31
Gamba Osaka or draw (1UP) 56.3% 62.9% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale or draw in 2nd half 68.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
Kawasaki Frontale or Gamba Osaka in 2nd half 67.9% 65.9% — — 1.52
Gamba Osaka or draw in 2nd half 63.5% 63.8% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.1% 58.8% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 40.9% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (DNB) 56.7% 58.1% 58.0% 1.00× 1.72
Gamba Osaka (DNB) 43.4% 41.9% 42.0% 1.00× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to score first 51.7% 53.4% — — 1.87
Gamba Osaka to score first 44.4% 41.8% — — 2.40
No goal scored 3.9% 4.3% — — 23.06
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 62.8% 56.6% 50.5% 1.12× 1.77
Not both teams to score 37.2% 43.4% 49.5% 0.88× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 52.6% 47.2% 37.2% 1.27× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 28.2% 33.3% 40.2% 0.83× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 10.2% 12.4% 13.4% 0.92× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 9.0% 8.3% 9.5% 0.87× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 78.0% 79.7% 86.3% 0.92× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 22.0% 20.3% 13.8% 1.47× 4.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 63.6% 66.0% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 36.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 48.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Both score 2nd half only 28.0% 27.2% — — 3.67
Both score 1st half only 14.7% 10.8% — — 9.25
Both score in both halves 8.4% 6.8% — — 14.61
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 76.9% 81.1% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 23.1% 18.9% — — 5.30
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 61.8% 59.6% — — 1.68
A half without a goal 38.2% 40.4% — — 2.47
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.1% 42.2% 47.2% 0.89× 2.37
4-6 goals 35.0% 30.8% 20.9% 1.47× 3.25
0-1 goals 17.6% 20.2% 29.5% 0.68× 4.95
7+ goals 4.3% 1.8% 2.7% 0.70× 54.10
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to score exactly 1 33.8% 33.8% 36.6% 0.93× 2.96
Gamba Osaka to score exactly 2 24.8% 22.3% 19.7% 1.13× 4.48
Gamba Osaka to score exactly 0 23.0% 22.3% 31.9% 0.70× 4.49
Gamba Osaka to score 3+ 18.4% 19.6% 12.2% 1.61× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to score exactly 1 30.9% 32.6% 36.3% 0.90× 3.07
Kawasaki Frontale to score exactly 2 26.4% 26.5% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
Kawasaki Frontale to score 3+ 24.5% 23.3% 14.8% 1.57× 4.29
Kawasaki Frontale to score exactly 0 18.1% 18.8% 24.7% 0.76× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 39.4% 39.1% — — 2.56
Kawasaki Frontale leading at HT 34.8% 33.0% — — 3.03
Gamba Osaka leading at HT 25.8% 25.2% — — 3.97
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale -1: 2 56.3% 56.7% — — 1.76
Kawasaki Frontale -1: 1 22.8% 23.5% — — 4.25
Kawasaki Frontale -1: X 20.9% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (0:1) 56.3% 55.8% 57.0% 0.98× 1.79
Kawasaki Frontale (0:1) 22.8% 24.2% 18.1% 1.34× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 20.9% 24.2% 25.0% 0.97× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (0:2) 77.2% 79.4% 81.9% 0.97× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.1% 11.0% 12.0% 0.91× 9.10
Kawasaki Frontale (0:2) 9.7% 7.7% 6.3% 1.23× 13.02
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (0:3) 90.3% 92.7% 93.8% 0.99× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.3% 5.8% 4.2% 1.37× 17.25
Kawasaki Frontale (0:3) 3.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.09× 42.08
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (0:4) 96.6% 98.1% 97.8% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.4% 1.2% 1.4% 0.87× 81.90
Kawasaki Frontale (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.30× 82.06
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (1:0) 66.6% 70.1% 68.9% 1.02× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 18.0% 17.1% 19.4% 0.88× 5.85
Gamba Osaka (1:0) 15.4% 17.1% 11.9% 1.44× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (2:0) 84.6% 84.7% 88.1% 0.96× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 9.7% 6.4% 6.1% 1.05× 15.64
Gamba Osaka (2:0) 5.8% 6.4% 5.9% 1.07× 15.69
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.2% 50.1% — — 2.00
1st half highest scoring 27.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.3% 24.4% — — 4.11
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to concede 77.0% 76.0% 68.1% 1.12× 1.32
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet 23.0% 24.0% 31.9% 0.75× 4.17
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet in 1st half 55.5% 61.9% — — 1.62
Kawasaki Frontale to concede in 1st half 44.5% 38.1% — — 2.63
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to concede in 2nd half 58.6% 54.7% — — 1.83
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet in 2nd half 41.4% 45.3% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale over 2.5 corners 85.1% 86.2% — — 1.16
Kawasaki Frontale over 3.5 corners 71.9% 71.9% — — 1.39
Kawasaki Frontale under 6.5 corners 70.9% 71.9% — — 1.39
Kawasaki Frontale under 5.5 corners 58.1% 57.5% — — 1.74
Kawasaki Frontale over 4.5 corners 56.7% 57.5% — — 1.74
Kawasaki Frontale under 4.5 corners 43.3% 42.5% — — 2.35
Kawasaki Frontale over 5.5 corners 41.9% 42.5% — — 2.35
Kawasaki Frontale over 6.5 corners 29.1% 28.1% — — 3.55
Kawasaki Frontale under 3.5 corners 28.1% 28.1% — — 3.55
Kawasaki Frontale under 2.5 corners 14.9% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 3.5 goals 90.5% 92.2% 94.8% 0.97× 1.08
Kawasaki Frontale over 0.5 goals 81.9% 82.2% 75.3% 1.09× 1.22
Kawasaki Frontale under 2.5 goals 75.5% 77.7% 85.2% 0.91× 1.29
Kawasaki Frontale over 1.5 goals 51.0% 53.2% 39.2% 1.36× 1.88
Kawasaki Frontale under 1.5 goals 49.0% 46.8% 60.8% 0.77× 2.14
Kawasaki Frontale over 2.5 goals 24.5% 22.3% 14.8% 1.50× 4.49
Kawasaki Frontale under 0.5 goals 18.1% 17.8% 24.7% 0.72× 5.63
Kawasaki Frontale over 3.5 goals 9.5% 7.8% 5.2% 1.51× 12.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 1.5 in 1st half 83.2% 83.8% — — 1.19
Kawasaki Frontale over 0.5 in 1st half 52.1% 50.3% — — 1.99
Kawasaki Frontale under 0.5 in 1st half 47.9% 49.7% — — 2.01
Kawasaki Frontale over 1.5 in 1st half 16.8% 16.2% — — 6.19
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale scores more in 2nd half 39.9% 37.9% — — 2.64
Kawasaki Frontale scores equally in both 33.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
Kawasaki Frontale scores more in 1st half 26.6% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (home no bet) 59.4% 56.5% 54.4% 1.04× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 40.6% 43.5% 45.6% 0.95× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale even goals 51.6% 50.7% 52.7% 0.96× 1.97
Kawasaki Frontale odd goals 48.4% 49.3% 47.3% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 26.6% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 1-0 19.6% 18.5% — — 5.39
HT 0-1 15.7% 18.5% — — 5.41
HT 1-1 11.5% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 7.2% 6.9% — — 14.46
Any other HT score 6.0% 6.9% — — 14.48
HT 0-2 4.6% 2.4% — — 41.91
HT 2-1 4.2% 2.4% — — 41.93
HT 1-2 3.4% 2.4% — — 41.99
HT 2-2 1.2% 2.4% — — 42.13
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale at HT / Kawasaki Frontale at FT 26.4% 27.2% — — 3.68
Gamba Osaka at HT / Gamba Osaka at FT 18.1% 16.8% — — 5.95
Draw at HT / Kawasaki Frontale at FT 14.5% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Gamba Osaka at FT 12.5% 12.6% — — 7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.4% 12.6% — — 7.91
Kawasaki Frontale at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.1% — — 16.48
Gamba Osaka at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.79
Kawasaki Frontale at HT / Gamba Osaka at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.87
Gamba Osaka at HT / Kawasaki Frontale at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.87
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to score last 51.7% 52.0% — — 1.92
Gamba Osaka to score last 44.4% 40.2% — — 2.49
No goal scored 3.9% 4.3% — — 23.06
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.1% 95.6% — — 1.05
Kawasaki Frontale to lead by 1 at any time 61.5% 61.2% — — 1.63
Gamba Osaka to lead by 1 at any time 52.9% 50.8% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.8% 50.8% — — 1.97
Kawasaki Frontale to lead by 2 at any time 30.6% 29.7% — — 3.36
Gamba Osaka to lead by 2 at any time 22.6% 19.6% — — 5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.4% 19.5% — — 5.12
Kawasaki Frontale to lead by 3 at any time 12.5% 10.5% — — 9.51
Gamba Osaka to lead by 3 at any time 7.9% 6.7% — — 14.94
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale most corners 55.9% 55.6% — — 1.80
Gamba Osaka most corners 32.9% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 11.2% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.8% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.1% 78.7% 68.0% 1.16× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.5% 72.4% 81.7% 0.89× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.1% 72.3% 65.0% 1.11× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.8% 63.3% 59.2% 1.07× 1.58
3-6 goals 57.3% 59.1% 44.1% 1.34× 1.69
1-3 goals 56.8% 59.1% 69.7% 0.85× 1.69
3-5 goals 51.3% 53.2% 41.1% 1.29× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.1% 43.6% 47.2% 0.92× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.0% 43.6% 35.3% 1.23× 2.29
4-6 goals 35.0% 35.2% 20.9% 1.68× 2.84
1-2 goals 34.5% 35.2% 46.6% 0.76× 2.84
4-5 goals 29.0% 30.2% 18.0% 1.68× 3.31
5-6 goals 17.2% 18.8% 8.9% 2.11× 5.31
7+ goals 4.3% 2.6% 2.7% 0.96× 39.06
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale never behind 43.2% 48.6% — — 2.06
Gamba Osaka never behind 34.6% 36.3% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.6% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.96
Odd number of goals 50.4% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.5% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.5% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.1% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.9% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.1% 95.4% 93.0% 1.03× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 89.7% 87.6% 94.4% 0.93× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 82.4% 82.3% 70.5% 1.17× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 78.4% 77.3% 88.6% 0.87× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 61.6% 61.7% 46.6% 1.33× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 60.7% 61.7% 76.6% 0.81× 1.62
Over 3.5 goals 39.3% 38.3% 23.4% 1.63× 2.61
Under 2.5 goals 38.4% 38.3% 53.4% 0.72× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 21.6% 22.7% 11.4% 1.99× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 17.6% 17.7% 29.5% 0.60× 5.66
Over 5.5 goals 10.3% 12.4% 5.6% 2.20× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 3.9% 4.6% 7.0% 0.65× 21.84
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.4% 97.2% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 88.4% 86.7% 94.0% 0.92× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 77.8% 75.9% 61.2% 1.24× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 73.8% 72.4% 87.0% 0.83× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 50.6% 51.9% 30.5% 1.70× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 49.4% 48.1% 69.5% 0.69× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 26.2% 27.6% 13.0% 2.13× 3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 22.2% 24.1% 38.8% 0.62× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 11.6% 13.3% 6.0% 2.22× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.6% 2.8% 2.7% 1.03× 35.54
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 85.2% 88.9% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.4% 71.5% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 61.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 38.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half 26.6% 28.5% — — 3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half 14.8% 11.1% — — 9.04
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 84.5% 83.0% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 71.5% 77.5% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 55.3% 55.1% — — 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 44.7% 44.9% — — 2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 28.5% 22.5% — — 4.45
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 15.5% 17.0% — — 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka not to score in both halves 73.9% 74.0% — — 1.35
Kawasaki Frontale not to score in both halves 67.6% 70.1% — — 1.43
Kawasaki Frontale to score in both halves 32.4% 29.9% — — 3.34
Gamba Osaka to score in both halves 26.1% 26.0% — — 3.84
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 62.8% 60.2% 50.5% 1.19× 1.66
Only Kawasaki Frontale scores 19.1% 16.0% 25.0% 0.64× 6.23
Only Gamba Osaka scores 14.2% 11.0% 17.8% 0.62× 9.06
Neither team scores 3.9% 4.6% 7.0% 0.66× 21.62
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 20.8% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.7% 17.5% 12.2% 1.43× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 13.7% 12.1% 22.7% 0.54× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 11.3% 12.1% 5.9% 2.04× 8.25
6 or more goals 10.3% 12.1% 5.6% 2.15× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 3.9% 4.5% 7.0% 0.64× 22.36
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.3% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 26.6% 28.5% — — 3.51
2 goals in 1st half 23.3% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 14.8% 11.0% — — 9.12
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 55.3% 54.0% — — 1.85
1 goal in 2nd half 29.2% 29.5% — — 3.40
No goals in 2nd half 15.5% 16.6% — — 6.02
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka not to win both halves 91.9% 94.1% — — 1.06
Kawasaki Frontale not to win both halves 87.3% 88.0% — — 1.14
Kawasaki Frontale to win both halves 12.7% 12.0% — — 8.31
Gamba Osaka to win both halves 8.1% 5.9% — — 17.01
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to win either half 58.6% 59.2% — — 1.69
Gamba Osaka to win neither half 50.8% 54.2% — — 1.84
Gamba Osaka to win either half 49.2% 45.8% — — 2.18
Kawasaki Frontale to win neither half 41.4% 40.8% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka not to win to nil 85.8% 88.1% 82.2% 1.07× 1.14
Kawasaki Frontale not to win to nil 80.9% 83.1% 75.0% 1.11× 1.20
Kawasaki Frontale to win to nil 19.1% 16.9% 25.0% 0.68× 5.91
Gamba Osaka to win to nil 14.2% 11.9% 17.8% 0.67× 8.41
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 22.9% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
Kawasaki Frontale by 1 20.9% 24.1% 25.0% 0.96× 4.15
Gamba Osaka by 1 18.0% 17.0% 19.4% 0.88× 5.87
Kawasaki Frontale by 2 13.1% 11.8% 12.0% 0.98× 8.51
Gamba Osaka by 2 9.7% 7.2% 6.1% 1.18× 13.90
Kawasaki Frontale by 3+ 9.7% 7.2% 6.3% 1.15× 13.90
Gamba Osaka by 3+ 5.8% 7.2% 5.9% 1.21× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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