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Kharkiv v Bukovyna Chernivtsi — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · UKR-Premier League · 2627

UKR-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Kharkiv win
50.9%
model 51.3%
Draw
31.3%
model 31.7%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi win
17.8%
model 17.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,549 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 15.7%
  2. 0-0 14.7%
  3. 1-1 13.9%
  4. 2-0 12.0%
  5. 2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.533.7% Under 2.566.3%
BTTS yes38.8% BTTS no61.2%
Kharkiv 1+74.4% Kharkiv 2+39.5%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi 1+49.7% Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+15.1%

Expected goals 1.36 – 0.69. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
19/100
Data quality
20/100
Model agreement
84%
★ Best pick
Kharkiv clean sheet
Home clean sheet · usually 32%
53.7% fair odds 1.86
strong signal · 3818 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Kharkiv (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 69%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
strong signal · 13600 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Kharkiv have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Bukovyna Chernivtsi have allowed 1.35.
  • At home Kharkiv average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.84).
  • Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Kharkiv have only 0 matches on record.
  • Bukovyna Chernivtsi have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Kharkiv have an estimated 50.9% win probability, against 31.3% for the draw and 17.8% for Bukovyna Chernivtsi. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.36 for Kharkiv and 0.69 for Bukovyna Chernivtsi.

Why Kharkiv

Kharkiv have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Bukovyna Chernivtsi have allowed 1.35. At home Kharkiv average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.3%. A combined 2.05 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes.

Why Bukovyna Chernivtsi can win

Bukovyna Chernivtsi have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Kharkiv have allowed 1.35. Away from home Bukovyna Chernivtsi average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Kharkiv, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Bukovyna Chernivtsi, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Kharkiv: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Bukovyna Chernivtsi: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Kharkiv are the model's most likely outcome at 50.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 15.7%. Confidence 19/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.36–0.69 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.58–0.34 1-0 22% 30% 24%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv to win 51.3% 51.2% 44.4% 1.15× 1.95
Draw 31.7% 31.5% 25.0% 1.26× 3.17
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win 17.0% 17.9% 30.6% 0.58× 5.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv & not both score 35.6% 36.2% 24.4% 1.48× 2.77
Draw & both teams score 17.0% 18.1% 17.7% 1.03× 5.52
Kharkiv & both teams score 15.7% 18.1% 20.1% 0.90× 5.52
Draw & not both score 14.7% 12.7% 7.3% 1.74× 7.88
Bukovyna Chernivtsi & not both score 10.9% 12.7% 16.0% 0.79× 7.88
Bukovyna Chernivtsi & both teams score 6.1% 7.6% 14.6% 0.52× 13.08
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv & under 3.5 41.3% 42.9% 30.3% 1.42× 2.33
Kharkiv & over 1.5 35.6% 36.6% 34.1% 1.07× 2.74
Draw & under 2.5 28.6% 26.4% 18.8% 1.41× 3.79
Draw & under 3.5 28.6% 26.4% 18.8% 1.41× 3.79
Kharkiv & under 2.5 27.7% 26.4% 17.5% 1.50× 3.79
Kharkiv & over 2.5 23.6% 21.8% 26.9% 0.81× 4.58
Draw & over 1.5 17.0% 17.7% 17.7% 1.00× 5.64
Kharkiv & under 1.5 15.7% 17.7% 10.4% 1.71× 5.64
Draw & under 1.5 14.7% 12.4% 7.3% 1.70× 8.05
Bukovyna Chernivtsi & under 3.5 14.9% 12.4% 21.6% 0.57× 8.05
Bukovyna Chernivtsi & under 2.5 10.1% 12.4% 12.2% 1.01× 8.06
Kharkiv & over 3.5 10.0% 7.6% 14.2% 0.53× 13.20
Bukovyna Chernivtsi & over 1.5 10.0% 7.6% 23.1% 0.33× 13.20
Bukovyna Chernivtsi & under 1.5 7.0% 7.6% 7.5% 1.01× 13.21
Bukovyna Chernivtsi & over 2.5 6.9% 7.6% 18.4% 0.41× 13.21
Draw & over 2.5 3.1% 4.4% 6.2% 0.71× 22.79
Draw & over 3.5 3.1% 4.4% 6.2% 0.71× 22.79
Bukovyna Chernivtsi & over 3.5 2.1% 4.4% 9.0% 0.49× 22.80
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv (1UP) 62.4% 65.2% 59.8% 1.09× 1.54
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (1UP) 31.0% 35.3% 50.4% 0.70× 2.83
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv (2UP) 51.3% 52.6% 45.2% 1.16× 1.90
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (2UP) 17.0% 19.7% 34.2% 0.58× 5.08
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 42.3% 41.4% 32.7% 1.27× 2.42
Kharkiv to win 2nd half 40.4% 41.3% 37.7% 1.10× 2.42
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win 2nd half 17.3% 20.2% 29.7% 0.68× 4.96
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi under 1.5 in 2nd half 93.5% 90.7% 82.3% 1.10× 1.10
Bukovyna Chernivtsi under 0.5 in 2nd half 66.2% 66.9% 46.6% 1.44× 1.49
Bukovyna Chernivtsi over 0.5 in 2nd half 33.8% 33.1% 53.4% 0.62× 3.03
Bukovyna Chernivtsi over 1.5 in 2nd half 6.5% 9.3% 17.7% 0.53× 10.73
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv under 1.5 in 2nd half 81.7% 79.1% 77.4% 1.02× 1.27
Kharkiv over 0.5 in 2nd half 54.0% 54.2% 58.7% 0.92× 1.84
Kharkiv under 0.5 in 2nd half 46.0% 45.8% 41.4% 1.11× 2.19
Kharkiv over 1.5 in 2nd half 18.3% 20.9% 22.6% 0.93× 4.78
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (+2.5) 90.2% 92.3% 90.1% 1.02× 1.08
Kharkiv (+0.5) 83.0% 83.2% 69.4% 1.20× 1.20
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (+1.5) 74.0% 73.3% 77.7% 0.94× 1.36
Kharkiv (-0.5) 51.3% 51.8% 44.4% 1.17× 1.93
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (+0.5) 48.7% 48.2% 55.6% 0.87× 2.07
Kharkiv (-1.5) 26.0% 26.7% 22.3% 1.20× 3.75
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (-0.5) 17.0% 16.8% 30.6% 0.55× 5.95
Kharkiv (-2.5) 9.8% 7.7% 9.9% 0.78× 12.96
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to concede 74.4% 75.6% 76.7% 0.99× 1.32
Bukovyna Chernivtsi clean sheet 25.6% 24.4% 23.3% 1.05× 4.10
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi clean sheet in 1st half 55.6% 57.3% 51.8% 1.11× 1.75
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to concede in 1st half 44.4% 42.7% 48.2% 0.89× 2.34
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to concede in 2nd half 54.0% 54.6% 58.7% 0.93× 1.83
Bukovyna Chernivtsi clean sheet in 2nd half 46.0% 45.4% 41.4% 1.10× 2.20
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.3% 95.7% 1.02× 1.03
Bukovyna Chernivtsi under 2.5 goals 96.7% 97.3% 87.0% 1.12× 1.03
Bukovyna Chernivtsi under 1.5 goals 84.9% 82.5% 66.3% 1.25× 1.21
Bukovyna Chernivtsi under 0.5 goals 50.3% 52.9% 31.7% 1.67× 1.89
Bukovyna Chernivtsi over 0.5 goals 49.7% 47.1% 68.3% 0.69× 2.13
Bukovyna Chernivtsi over 1.5 goals 15.1% 17.5% 33.7% 0.52× 5.72
Bukovyna Chernivtsi over 2.5 goals 3.3% 2.7% 13.0% 0.21× 37.11
Bukovyna Chernivtsi over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.7% 4.3% 0.62× 37.16
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi under 1.5 in 1st half 96.9% 95.3% 89.4% 1.07× 1.05
Bukovyna Chernivtsi under 0.5 in 1st half 76.0% 74.7% 59.0% 1.27× 1.34
Bukovyna Chernivtsi over 0.5 in 1st half 24.0% 25.3% 41.0% 0.62× 3.95
Bukovyna Chernivtsi over 1.5 in 1st half 3.1% 4.7% 10.6% 0.44× 21.28
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi scores equally in both 56.2% 58.9% 40.6% 1.45× 1.70
Bukovyna Chernivtsi scores more in 2nd half 27.0% 27.3% 36.5% 0.75× 3.67
Bukovyna Chernivtsi scores more in 1st half 16.8% 17.2% 22.9% 0.75× 5.83
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv (away no bet) 61.8% 62.3% 64.0% 0.97× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 38.2% 37.7% 36.0% 1.05× 2.65
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi even goals 62.7% 60.7% 55.7% 1.09× 1.65
Bukovyna Chernivtsi odd goals 37.3% 39.3% 44.3% 0.89× 2.54
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 92.9% 90.8% 82.7% 1.10× 1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals 7.1% 9.2% 17.3% 0.53× 10.83
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 51.5% 53.0% 33.8% 1.57× 1.89
Not both halves under 1.5 48.5% 47.0% 66.2% 0.71× 2.13
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 43.4% 42.7% 58.6% 0.73× 2.34
Kharkiv to score 2+ in a row 34.7% 32.1% 36.9% 0.87× 3.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.0% 12.9% 22.9% 0.56× 7.75
Kharkiv to score 3+ in a row 12.2% 12.9% 14.2% 0.91× 7.77
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score 2+ in a row 11.0% 12.8% 28.6% 0.45× 7.79
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score 3+ in a row 1.9% 3.1% 9.1% 0.34× 32.25
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 15.7% 15.5% 10.4% 1.49× 6.45
0-0 14.7% 11.2% 7.3% 1.54× 8.91
1-1 13.9% 11.2% 11.5% 0.98× 8.91
2-0 12.0% 11.2% 7.2% 1.57× 8.91
0-1 7.0% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.45
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.45
3-0 5.4% 7.4% 3.9% 1.90× 13.45
Any other score 1.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.34
0-2 3.0% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.34
0-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.35
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.93× 58.35
1-2 4.1% 1.7% 7.0% 0.24× 58.34
1-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.35
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.69× 58.35
2-2 2.8% 1.7% 5.1% 0.34× 58.34
2-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.35
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2.89× 58.35
3-1 3.7% 1.7% 4.2% 0.41× 58.34
3-2 1.3% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.34
3-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.72× 58.35
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.65× 58.35
4-0 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% 0.98× 58.34
4-1 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.34
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.87× 58.35
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.62× 58.35
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 16.16× 58.35
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv (2nd half DNB) 70.0% 66.9% 55.9% 1.20× 1.50
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (2nd half DNB) 30.0% 33.1% 44.1% 0.75× 3.02
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv leading at HT (DNB) 71.8% 74.2% 56.7% 1.31× 1.35
Bukovyna Chernivtsi leading at HT (DNB) 28.2% 25.8% 43.3% 0.60× 3.87
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv or draw (1X) 83.0% 82.1% 69.4% 1.18× 1.22
Kharkiv or Bukovyna Chernivtsi (12) 68.3% 68.5% 75.0% 0.91× 1.46
Bukovyna Chernivtsi or draw (X2) 48.7% 48.8% 55.6% 0.88× 2.05
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv or draw at HT 85.9% 87.1% 74.1% 1.17× 1.15
Bukovyna Chernivtsi or draw at HT 64.1% 62.9% 66.2% 0.95× 1.59
Kharkiv or Bukovyna Chernivtsi at HT 50.0% 53.8% 59.7% 0.90× 1.86
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv or draw (1UP) 83.0% 86.3% 74.2% 1.16× 1.16
Bukovyna Chernivtsi or draw (1UP) 48.7% 55.4% 63.9% 0.87× 1.80
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv or draw in 2nd half 82.7% 79.8% 70.3% 1.14× 1.25
Bukovyna Chernivtsi or draw in 2nd half 59.6% 58.7% 62.3% 0.94× 1.70
Kharkiv or Bukovyna Chernivtsi in 2nd half 57.7% 58.6% 67.3% 0.87× 1.71
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 69.2% 65.3% 58.9% 1.11× 1.53
Neither half drawn 30.8% 34.7% 41.1% 0.84× 2.88
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv (DNB) 75.1% 77.3% 59.2% 1.31× 1.29
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (DNB) 24.9% 22.7% 40.8% 0.56× 4.41
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv to score first 56.7% 60.9% 51.2% 1.19× 1.64
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score first 28.6% 29.6% 42.9% 0.69× 3.38
No goal scored 14.7% 7.2% 5.9% 1.21× 13.94
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 61.2% 59.0% 47.6% 1.24× 1.70
Both teams to score 38.8% 41.0% 52.4% 0.78× 2.44
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 52.5% 48.5% 37.1% 1.31× 2.06
Both score & over 2.5 24.9% 25.0% 40.9% 0.61× 3.99
Both score & under 2.5 13.9% 11.9% 11.5% 1.04× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 8.8% 8.4% 10.6% 0.80× 11.85
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 94.0% 89.9% 86.0% 1.05× 1.11
Both teams to score 2+ 6.0% 10.1% 14.0% 0.72× 9.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 81.1% 73.4% 70.2% 1.04× 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 18.9% 26.6% 29.8% 0.89× 3.76
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 72.1% 65.2% 57.8% 1.13× 1.53
Both score 2nd half only 16.9% 18.4% 23.8% 0.77× 5.43
Both score 1st half only 9.0% 7.0% 12.5% 0.56× 14.39
Both score in both halves 1.9% 4.8% 6.0% 0.80× 20.78
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 89.0% 84.8% 81.5% 1.04× 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 11.0% 15.2% 18.5% 0.82× 6.57
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 59.0% 57.5% 41.1% 1.40× 1.74
A goal in each half 41.0% 42.5% 58.9% 0.72× 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.4% 46.5% 45.4% 1.02× 2.15
0-1 goals 37.5% 35.3% 25.2% 1.40× 2.83
4-6 goals 14.7% 14.9% 27.0% 0.55× 6.70
7+ goals 0.5% 2.0% 2.4% 0.83× 49.80
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score exactly 0 50.3% 49.6% 31.7% 1.57× 2.01
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score exactly 1 34.6% 32.3% 34.6% 0.93× 3.09
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score exactly 2 11.9% 13.0% 20.8% 0.63× 7.69
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score 3+ 3.3% 4.1% 13.0% 0.32× 24.14
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv to score exactly 1 34.9% 32.2% 33.1% 0.97× 3.10
Kharkiv to score exactly 0 25.6% 26.4% 23.3% 1.14× 3.78
Kharkiv to score exactly 2 23.8% 22.9% 24.0% 0.95× 4.38
Kharkiv to score 3+ 15.8% 18.1% 19.7% 0.92× 5.51
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 50.0% 46.2% 40.3% 1.14× 2.17
Kharkiv leading at HT 35.9% 37.1% 33.8% 1.10× 2.70
Bukovyna Chernivtsi leading at HT 14.1% 12.9% 25.9% 0.50× 7.75
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv -1: 2 48.7% 48.2% 2.07
Kharkiv -1: 1 26.0% 26.8% 3.74
Kharkiv -1: X 25.3% 26.8% 3.74
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (0:1) 48.7% 47.6% 55.6% 0.86× 2.10
Kharkiv (0:1) 26.0% 27.2% 22.3% 1.22× 3.68
Draw (0:1) 25.3% 27.2% 22.2% 1.23× 3.68
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (0:2) 74.0% 75.0% 77.7% 0.97× 1.33
Draw (0:2) 16.2% 15.7% 12.3% 1.27× 6.38
Kharkiv (0:2) 9.8% 7.7% 9.9% 0.78× 12.96
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (0:3) 90.2% 92.5% 90.1% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.8% 6.5% 5.9% 1.10× 15.40
Kharkiv (0:3) 3.0% 2.6% 4.0% 0.63× 39.16
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (0:4) 97.0% 97.7% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.2% 1.4% 2.5% 0.56× 70.69
Kharkiv (0:4) 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 0.94× 70.75
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv (1:0) 83.0% 83.0% 69.4% 1.20× 1.20
Draw (1:0) 11.9% 12.5% 17.0% 0.74× 7.97
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (1:0) 5.1% 7.5% 13.6% 0.55× 13.41
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv (2:0) 94.9% 92.9% 86.4% 1.07× 1.08
Draw (2:0) 4.1% 2.8% 8.1% 0.34× 35.88
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (2:0) 1.0% 2.8% 5.4% 0.51× 35.94
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.0% 48.6% 48.6% 1.00× 2.06
Halves equal 32.5% 27.4% 25.2% 1.09× 3.65
1st half highest scoring 25.4% 26.1% 26.3% 0.99× 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv clean sheet 50.3% 53.7% 31.7% 1.69× 1.86
Kharkiv to concede 49.7% 46.3% 68.3% 0.68× 2.16
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv clean sheet in 1st half 76.0% 74.9% 59.0% 1.27× 1.34
Kharkiv to concede in 1st half 24.0% 25.1% 41.0% 0.61× 3.99
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv clean sheet in 2nd half 66.2% 64.1% 46.6% 1.38× 1.56
Kharkiv to concede in 2nd half 33.8% 35.9% 53.4% 0.67× 2.78
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv under 3.5 goals 95.0% 96.6% 92.4% 1.05× 1.04
Kharkiv under 2.5 goals 84.2% 82.3% 80.3% 1.03× 1.22
Kharkiv over 0.5 goals 74.4% 73.1% 76.7% 0.95× 1.37
Kharkiv under 1.5 goals 60.5% 62.4% 56.3% 1.11× 1.60
Kharkiv over 1.5 goals 39.5% 37.6% 43.7% 0.86× 2.66
Kharkiv under 0.5 goals 25.6% 26.9% 23.3% 1.16× 3.71
Kharkiv over 2.5 goals 15.8% 17.7% 19.7% 0.90× 5.66
Kharkiv over 3.5 goals 5.0% 3.4% 7.6% 0.45× 29.37
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv under 1.5 in 1st half 88.3% 87.7% 85.9% 1.02× 1.14
Kharkiv under 0.5 in 1st half 55.6% 57.4% 51.8% 1.11× 1.74
Kharkiv over 0.5 in 1st half 44.4% 42.6% 48.2% 0.88× 2.35
Kharkiv over 1.5 in 1st half 11.7% 12.3% 14.1% 0.87× 8.14
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv scores equally in both 38.6% 37.2% 37.1% 1.00× 2.69
Kharkiv scores more in 2nd half 36.5% 37.1% 38.0% 0.98× 2.69
Kharkiv scores more in 1st half 24.9% 23.2% 24.9% 0.93× 4.31
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 65.1% 64.5% 44.9% 1.44× 1.55
Bukovyna Chernivtsi (home no bet) 34.9% 35.5% 55.1% 0.64× 2.82
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv even goals 53.3% 50.9% 52.8% 0.96× 1.96
Kharkiv odd goals 46.7% 49.1% 47.2% 1.04× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 42.6% 37.9% 29.3% 1.30× 2.64
HT 1-0 24.5% 22.5% 20.7% 1.09× 4.44
HT 0-1 11.3% 10.9% 16.3% 0.67× 9.16
HT 2-0 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 1.12× 12.55
HT 1-1 7.1% 8.0% 10.2% 0.78× 12.55
Any other HT score 2.5% 2.5% 4.7% 0.52× 40.47
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.5% 3.3% 0.75× 40.49
HT 0-2 1.6% 2.5% 4.9% 0.50× 40.51
HT 1-2 0.9% 2.5% 2.8% 0.89× 40.54
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.5% 0.9% 2.76× 40.57
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv at HT / Kharkiv at FT 30.3% 34.0% 25.8% 1.32× 2.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 23.0% 20.9% 14.1% 1.48× 4.78
Draw at HT / Kharkiv at FT 19.2% 17.3% 14.7% 1.18× 5.77
Bukovyna Chernivtsi at HT / Bukovyna Chernivtsi at FT 8.3% 6.5% 17.4% 0.37× 15.45
Draw at HT / Bukovyna Chernivtsi at FT 7.8% 6.5% 11.6% 0.56× 15.46
Kharkiv at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.6% 5.1% 0.71× 27.51
Bukovyna Chernivtsi at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.6% 5.6% 0.65× 27.52
Bukovyna Chernivtsi at HT / Kharkiv at FT 1.7% 3.6% 2.9% 1.25× 27.59
Kharkiv at HT / Bukovyna Chernivtsi at FT 0.9% 3.6% 3.0% 1.22× 27.61
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv to score last 57.0% 56.4% 51.4% 1.10× 1.77
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score last 28.3% 33.3% 42.7% 0.78× 3.01
No goal scored 14.7% 7.3% 5.9% 1.24× 13.61
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 85.3% 92.5% 94.1% 0.98× 1.08
Kharkiv to lead by 1 at any time 62.4% 63.4% 59.8% 1.06× 1.58
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 37.6% 37.4% 48.2% 0.77× 2.68
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to lead by 1 at any time 31.0% 31.6% 50.4% 0.63× 3.16
Kharkiv to lead by 2 at any time 30.1% 31.6% 28.2% 1.12× 3.16
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.5% 11.0% 19.5% 0.57× 9.07
Kharkiv to lead by 3 at any time 11.1% 11.0% 12.1% 0.91× 9.08
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to lead by 2 at any time 7.6% 7.4% 20.3% 0.37× 13.47
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to lead by 3 at any time 1.4% 2.6% 7.4% 0.35× 38.55
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.5% 82.1% 86.4% 0.95× 1.22
1-4 goals 79.6% 77.9% 78.0% 1.00× 1.28
1-3 goals 70.1% 72.2% 63.3% 1.14× 1.39
2-6 goals 62.0% 62.7% 72.4% 0.87× 1.60
2-5 goals 60.7% 62.7% 68.5% 0.92× 1.60
2-4 goals 56.8% 58.9% 60.1% 0.98× 1.70
1-2 goals 51.6% 52.9% 41.2% 1.28× 1.89
2-3 goals 47.4% 47.4% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
3-6 goals 33.2% 34.7% 49.0% 0.71× 2.88
3-5 goals 31.8% 34.7% 45.1% 0.77× 2.88
3-4 goals 28.0% 28.5% 36.8% 0.78× 3.51
4-6 goals 14.7% 13.5% 27.0% 0.50× 7.41
4-5 goals 13.4% 13.5% 23.0% 0.59× 7.42
5-6 goals 5.2% 8.9% 12.3% 0.72× 11.22
7+ goals 0.5% 2.3% 2.4% 0.93× 44.29
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kharkiv never behind 54.3% 61.2% 49.6% 1.24× 1.63
Bukovyna Chernivtsi never behind 22.9% 25.8% 40.2% 0.64× 3.87
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 54.5% 50.1% 49.8% 1.00× 2.00
Odd number of goals 45.5% 49.9% 50.2% 1.00× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 59.6% 55.1% 53.7% 1.03× 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 40.4% 44.9% 46.3% 0.97× 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.9% 51.3% 51.1% 1.00× 1.95
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.1% 48.7% 48.9% 1.00× 2.05
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.2% 96.0% 93.7% 1.03× 1.04
Under 4.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 85.3% 1.08× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 85.3% 87.8% 92.7% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 84.8% 81.6% 70.6% 1.16× 1.23
Under 2.5 goals 66.3% 67.7% 48.5% 1.39× 1.48
Over 1.5 goals 62.5% 62.0% 74.8% 0.83× 1.61
Under 1.5 goals 37.5% 38.0% 25.2% 1.51× 2.63
Over 2.5 goals 33.7% 32.3% 51.5% 0.63× 3.09
Over 3.5 goals 15.2% 18.4% 29.4% 0.63× 5.44
Under 0.5 goals 14.7% 12.2% 7.3% 1.67× 8.21
Over 4.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 14.7% 0.53× 12.91
Over 5.5 goals 1.8% 4.0% 6.3% 0.63× 25.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.5% 97.3% 97.5% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.1% 97.3% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 93.7% 92.0% 82.8% 1.11× 1.09
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 81.4% 81.5% 62.3% 1.31× 1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 52.7% 52.0% 32.9% 1.58× 1.92
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 47.3% 48.0% 67.1% 0.71× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 18.6% 18.5% 37.7% 0.49× 5.40
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 6.3% 8.0% 17.2% 0.46× 12.52
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.9% 2.7% 6.9% 0.39× 36.71
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.5% 2.7% 2.5% 1.08× 36.73
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.3% 91.9% 88.4% 1.04× 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 78.4% 78.0% 66.3% 1.18× 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 57.4% 59.7% 70.7% 0.84× 1.68
Under 0.5 in 1st half 42.6% 40.3% 29.3% 1.38× 2.48
Over 1.5 in 1st half 21.6% 22.0% 33.7% 0.65× 4.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half 5.7% 8.1% 11.6% 0.70× 12.39
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 88.2% 85.2% 77.5% 1.10× 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 68.9% 67.0% 82.3% 0.81× 1.49
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 66.0% 66.8% 50.2% 1.33× 1.50
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 34.0% 33.3% 49.8% 0.67× 3.01
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 31.1% 33.0% 17.7% 1.86× 3.03
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 11.8% 14.8% 22.5% 0.66× 6.76
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi not to score in both halves 91.9% 88.7% 77.6% 1.14× 1.13
Kharkiv not to score in both halves 76.0% 75.7% 70.5% 1.07× 1.32
Kharkiv to score in both halves 24.0% 24.3% 29.5% 0.82× 4.12
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score in both halves 8.1% 11.3% 22.4% 0.50× 8.86
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 38.8% 39.4% 52.4% 0.75× 2.54
Only Kharkiv scores 35.6% 39.4% 24.4% 1.62× 2.54
Neither team scores 14.7% 11.2% 7.3% 1.53× 8.93
Only Bukovyna Chernivtsi scores 10.9% 11.2% 16.0% 0.70× 8.94
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.9% 25.0% 23.3% 1.07× 4.00
Exactly 1 goals 22.8% 22.3% 17.9% 1.24× 4.49
Exactly 3 goals 18.5% 17.6% 22.1% 0.80× 5.68
Exactly 0 goals 14.7% 12.3% 7.3% 1.68× 8.14
Exactly 4 goals 9.5% 7.8% 14.7% 0.53× 12.88
Exactly 5 goals 3.9% 4.0% 8.4% 0.48× 24.73
6 or more goals 1.8% 4.0% 6.3% 0.64× 24.75
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 42.6% 37.9% 29.3% 1.30× 2.64
1 goal in 1st half 35.8% 36.9% 37.0% 1.00× 2.71
2 goals in 1st half 16.0% 18.8% 22.2% 0.85× 5.33
3+ goals in 1st half 5.7% 8.1% 11.6% 0.70× 12.39
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 35.0% 34.4% 32.5% 1.06× 2.91
2+ goals in 2nd half 34.0% 34.3% 49.8% 0.69× 2.91
No goals in 2nd half 31.1% 34.3% 17.7% 1.94× 2.92
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi not to win both halves 97.4% 97.3% 91.8% 1.06× 1.03
Kharkiv not to win both halves 85.1% 87.7% 86.8% 1.01× 1.14
Kharkiv to win both halves 14.9% 12.3% 13.2% 0.93× 8.14
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win both halves 2.6% 2.7% 8.2% 0.33× 37.17
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win neither half 71.1% 70.0% 52.6% 1.33× 1.43
Kharkiv to win either half 61.4% 62.1% 58.3% 1.07× 1.61
Kharkiv to win neither half 38.6% 37.9% 41.7% 0.91× 2.64
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win either half 28.9% 30.0% 47.4% 0.63× 3.34
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi not to win to nil 89.1% 87.9% 84.0% 1.05× 1.14
Kharkiv not to win to nil 64.4% 63.5% 75.6% 0.84× 1.58
Kharkiv to win to nil 35.6% 36.5% 24.4% 1.50× 2.74
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win to nil 10.9% 12.1% 16.0% 0.76× 8.25
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 31.7% 29.2% 25.0% 1.17× 3.42
Kharkiv by 1 25.3% 27.3% 22.2% 1.23× 3.66
Kharkiv by 2 16.2% 17.2% 12.3% 1.40× 5.80
Bukovyna Chernivtsi by 1 11.9% 11.8% 17.0% 0.70× 8.45
Kharkiv by 3+ 9.8% 7.3% 9.9% 0.73× 13.76
Bukovyna Chernivtsi by 2 4.1% 3.0% 8.1% 0.37× 33.44
Bukovyna Chernivtsi by 3+ 1.0% 3.0% 5.4% 0.55× 33.48
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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