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Kilmarnock v Dundee — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 December 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Kilmarnock win
41.7%
model 40.2%
Draw
22.0%
model 23.5%
Dundee win
36.3%
model 36.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.6%
  2. 2-1 8.6%
  3. 1-2 8.1%
  4. 1-0 7.3%
  5. 0-1 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.560.1% Under 2.539.9%
BTTS yes62.1% BTTS no37.9%
Kilmarnock 1+79.9% Kilmarnock 2+47.6%
Dundee 1+77.9% Dundee 2+44.6%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Kilmarnock not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 73%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Dundee not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 85%
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Kilmarnock.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Kilmarnock have an estimated 41.7% win probability, against 36.3% for Dundee and 22.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.60 for Kilmarnock and 1.51 for Dundee.

Why Kilmarnock

Nothing in the data singles out Kilmarnock.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.60 to 1.51. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Dundee can win

Dundee carry the stronger rating, 1461 Elo against 1393.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Kilmarnock, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dundee, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Kilmarnock: 45% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dundee: 39% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Kilmarnock are the model's most likely outcome at 41.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.60–1.51 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.70–1.55 1-1 10% 63% 64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to win 41.7% 42.9% 45.9% 0.94× 2.33
Dundee to win 35.4% 36.3% 31.0% 1.17× 2.75
Draw 22.9% 24.5% 23.3% 1.05× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock & both teams score 24.3% 21.8% 18.6% 1.17× 4.59
Dundee & both teams score 20.9% 21.8% 16.3% 1.33× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 19.2% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Kilmarnock & not both score 17.4% 18.0% 27.5% 0.65× 5.57
Dundee & not both score 14.5% 13.3% 14.9% 0.89× 7.54
Draw & not both score 3.7% 4.9% 5.8% 0.84× 20.50
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock & over 1.5 35.0% 34.9% 36.6% 0.95× 2.87
Kilmarnock & over 2.5 29.4% 26.1% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Dundee & over 1.5 29.3% 26.1% 24.4% 1.07× 3.84
Dundee & over 2.5 24.6% 21.6% 20.5% 1.06× 4.63
Kilmarnock & under 3.5 24.1% 21.6% 30.2% 0.72× 4.63
Dundee & under 3.5 21.1% 21.6% 22.5% 0.96× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 19.2% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.55
Kilmarnock & over 3.5 17.6% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 13.8% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 13.8% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Dundee & over 3.5 14.3% 12.8% 8.7% 1.48× 7.79
Kilmarnock & under 2.5 12.3% 12.8% 18.0% 0.71× 7.79
Dundee & under 2.5 10.8% 12.8% 10.7% 1.19× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 9.1% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 9.1% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Kilmarnock & under 1.5 6.7% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Dundee & under 1.5 6.1% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 3.7% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (1UP) 60.3% 62.7% — — 1.59
Dundee (1UP) 55.0% 52.5% — — 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (2UP) 41.7% 47.0% — — 2.13
Dundee (2UP) 35.4% 37.2% — — 2.69
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to win 2nd half 35.2% 36.4% — — 2.75
Dundee to win 2nd half 33.1% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half drawn 31.7% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 1.5 in 2nd half 76.1% 79.4% — — 1.26
Dundee over 0.5 in 2nd half 60.6% 60.2% — — 1.66
Dundee under 0.5 in 2nd half 39.4% 39.8% — — 2.51
Dundee over 1.5 in 2nd half 23.9% 20.6% — — 4.85
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.7% 74.5% — — 1.34
Kilmarnock over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.1% 63.1% — — 1.59
Kilmarnock under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.9% 36.9% — — 2.71
Kilmarnock over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.3% 25.5% — — 3.92
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (+2.5) 90.9% 92.1% 87.8% 1.05× 1.09
Dundee (+1.5) 78.5% 78.5% 73.6% 1.07× 1.27
Kilmarnock (+0.5) 64.6% 63.0% 69.0% 0.91× 1.59
Dundee (+0.5) 58.3% 57.1% 54.1% 1.05× 1.75
Kilmarnock (-0.5) 41.7% 42.9% 45.9% 0.94× 2.33
Dundee (-0.5) 35.4% 37.0% 31.0% 1.20× 2.70
Kilmarnock (-1.5) 21.5% 21.5% 26.4% 0.81× 4.65
Kilmarnock (-2.5) 9.1% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede 81.7% 81.5% 79.5% 1.02× 1.23
Dundee clean sheet 18.3% 18.5% 20.5% 0.91× 5.39
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede in 1st half 51.9% 50.9% — — 1.97
Dundee clean sheet in 1st half 48.1% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede in 2nd half 62.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Dundee clean sheet in 2nd half 37.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 6.5 corners 86.8% 85.2% — — 1.17
Dundee under 5.5 corners 77.4% 76.0% — — 1.32
Dundee over 2.5 corners 71.5% 71.6% — — 1.40
Dundee under 4.5 corners 63.9% 61.7% — — 1.62
Dundee over 3.5 corners 53.2% 53.1% — — 1.88
Dundee under 3.5 corners 46.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Dundee over 4.5 corners 36.1% 38.3% — — 2.61
Dundee under 2.5 corners 28.5% 28.4% — — 3.52
Dundee over 5.5 corners 22.6% 24.0% — — 4.17
Dundee over 6.5 corners 13.2% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 3.5 goals 92.8% 92.4% 96.3% 0.96× 1.08
Dundee under 2.5 goals 79.6% 76.3% 85.5% 0.89× 1.31
Dundee over 0.5 goals 78.8% 76.3% 66.9% 1.14× 1.31
Dundee under 1.5 goals 54.1% 53.6% 63.2% 0.85× 1.87
Dundee over 1.5 goals 45.9% 46.5% 36.8% 1.26× 2.15
Dundee under 0.5 goals 21.2% 23.7% 33.1% 0.72× 4.21
Dundee over 2.5 goals 20.4% 23.7% 14.5% 1.64× 4.21
Dundee over 3.5 goals 7.2% 7.7% 3.7% 2.06× 13.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 1.5 in 1st half 87.1% 89.2% — — 1.12
Dundee under 0.5 in 1st half 53.8% 55.9% — — 1.79
Dundee over 0.5 in 1st half 46.2% 44.1% — — 2.27
Dundee over 1.5 in 1st half 12.9% 10.8% — — 9.29
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee scores more in 2nd half 41.3% 43.6% — — 2.29
Dundee scores equally in both 35.3% 37.3% — — 2.68
Dundee scores more in 1st half 23.4% 21.8% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (away no bet) 64.6% 62.0% 66.3% 0.93× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 35.4% 38.0% 33.7% 1.13× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee even goals 52.2% 52.6% 57.6% 0.91× 1.90
Dundee odd goals 47.8% 47.4% 42.4% 1.12× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 77.8% 81.0% — — 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 22.2% 19.0% — — 5.27
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 73.6% 67.7% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 26.4% 32.3% — — 3.10
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 64.6% 60.1% — — 1.67
Kilmarnock to score 2+ in a row 39.9% 36.6% — — 2.73
Dundee to score 2+ in a row 34.8% 29.0% — — 3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.4% 24.9% — — 4.02
Kilmarnock to score 3+ in a row 14.6% 12.2% — — 8.19
Dundee to score 3+ in a row 11.5% 12.1% — — 8.25
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock corners (+3.5) 91.6% 89.6% — — 1.12
Kilmarnock corners (+2.5) 86.1% 84.5% — — 1.18
Kilmarnock corners (+1.5) 78.5% 74.8% — — 1.34
Dundee corners (+3.5) 75.5% 74.8% — — 1.34
Dundee corners (+2.5) 65.6% 65.9% — — 1.52
Dundee corners (+1.5) 54.4% 52.4% — — 1.91
Kilmarnock corners (-1.5) 45.6% 47.6% — — 2.10
Kilmarnock corners (-2.5) 34.4% 34.1% — — 2.93
Kilmarnock corners (-3.5) 24.5% 25.2% — — 3.97
Dundee corners (-1.5) 21.5% 25.2% — — 3.97
Dundee corners (-2.5) 13.9% 15.5% — — 6.45
Dundee corners (-3.5) 8.4% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 46.5% 41.7% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 30.3% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 23.3% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 83.7% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 76.7% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 68.0% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 65.1% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 9.5 corners 57.8% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 53.5% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 46.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 42.2% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 34.9% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 32.0% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 23.3% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 16.3% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.1% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.72
2-1 8.7% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
1-0 6.7% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
1-2 7.9% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
2-2 6.7% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
0-1 6.1% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
2-0 5.6% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
Any other score 5.0% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.51
3-1 4.9% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.29
0-0 3.7% 1.7% 5.8% 0.30× 58.30
0-2 4.7% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.29
0-3 2.4% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.31
1-3 4.1% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
1-4 1.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
2-3 3.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-4 1.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
3-0 3.2% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
3-2 3.8% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
3-3 2.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
3-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.31
4-0 1.3% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.31
4-1 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.31
4-2 1.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-3 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (2nd half DNB) 51.5% 54.5% — — 1.83
Dundee (2nd half DNB) 48.5% 45.5% — — 2.20
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock leading at HT (DNB) 55.5% 55.3% — — 1.81
Dundee leading at HT (DNB) 44.5% 44.7% — — 2.24
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock or Dundee (12) 77.1% 75.5% 76.7% 0.99× 1.32
Kilmarnock or draw (1X) 64.6% 63.7% 69.0% 0.92× 1.57
Dundee or draw (X2) 58.3% 57.1% 54.1% 1.05× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock or draw at HT 72.9% 74.5% — — 1.34
Dundee or draw at HT 66.1% 67.1% — — 1.49
Kilmarnock or Dundee at HT 61.0% 61.0% — — 1.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock or draw (1UP) 64.6% 71.8% — — 1.39
Dundee or draw (1UP) 58.3% 63.1% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock or Dundee in 2nd half 68.3% 66.0% — — 1.52
Kilmarnock or draw in 2nd half 66.9% 66.0% — — 1.52
Dundee or draw in 2nd half 64.8% 63.6% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 58.5% 58.9% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 41.5% 41.1% — — 2.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (DNB) 54.1% 50.9% 59.7% 0.85× 1.96
Dundee (DNB) 45.9% 49.1% 40.3% 1.22× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to score first 50.3% 53.2% — — 1.88
Dundee to score first 45.9% 45.8% — — 2.19
No goal scored 3.7% 4.4% — — 22.85
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 64.3% 56.7% 52.3% 1.08× 1.76
Not both teams to score 35.7% 43.3% 47.7% 0.91× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 54.2% 47.3% 43.2% 1.09× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 26.8% 33.3% 34.1% 0.98× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 10.1% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.9% 8.3% 13.8% 0.60× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 76.7% 79.7% 83.9% 0.95× 1.26
Both teams to score 2+ 23.3% 20.3% 16.1% 1.26× 4.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 62.4% 65.8% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 37.6% 34.2% — — 2.93
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 47.5% 52.9% — — 1.89
Both score 2nd half only 28.5% 26.9% — — 3.72
Both score 1st half only 14.9% 10.8% — — 9.26
Both score in both halves 9.0% 6.8% — — 14.65
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 76.0% 80.9% — — 1.24
Both teams to score by HT 24.0% 19.1% — — 5.25
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 63.0% 59.4% — — 1.68
A half without a goal 37.0% 40.6% — — 2.46
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.5% 42.2% 45.7% 0.92× 2.37
4-6 goals 36.1% 35.0% 31.2% 1.12× 2.86
0-1 goals 16.6% 20.2% 21.7% 0.93× 4.95
7+ goals 4.8% 1.8% 1.9% 0.99× 54.08
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to score exactly 1 32.9% 33.8% 30.4% 1.11× 2.96
Dundee to score exactly 2 25.5% 27.4% 22.5% 1.22× 3.65
Dundee to score exactly 0 21.2% 22.3% 33.1% 0.67× 4.49
Dundee to score 3+ 20.4% 22.3% 14.5% 1.54× 4.49
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to score exactly 1 31.0% 32.6% 31.2% 1.04× 3.07
Kilmarnock to score exactly 2 26.4% 26.5% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Kilmarnock to score 3+ 24.3% 23.3% 23.8% 0.98× 4.29
Kilmarnock to score exactly 0 18.3% 18.8% 20.5% 0.92× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 39.0% 39.0% — — 2.56
Kilmarnock leading at HT 33.9% 32.9% — — 3.04
Dundee leading at HT 27.1% 25.5% — — 3.92
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock -1: 2 58.3% 56.8% — — 1.76
Kilmarnock -1: 1 21.5% 23.5% — — 4.25
Kilmarnock -1: X 20.2% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:1) 58.3% 55.9% 54.1% 1.03× 1.79
Kilmarnock (0:1) 21.5% 24.2% 26.4% 0.92× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 20.2% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:2) 78.5% 79.4% 73.6% 1.08× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 12.5% 11.0% 14.5% 0.76× 9.10
Kilmarnock (0:2) 9.1% 7.7% 12.2% 0.63× 13.04
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:3) 90.9% 92.7% 87.8% 1.06× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.9% 5.8% 6.8% 0.85× 17.27
Kilmarnock (0:3) 3.2% 2.4% 5.6% 0.43× 42.00
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:4) 96.8% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.2% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 81.65
Kilmarnock (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.80
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (1:0) 64.6% 65.3% 69.0% 0.95× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 18.4% 17.1% 17.8% 0.96× 5.85
Dundee (1:0) 17.0% 17.1% 13.4% 1.27× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (2:0) 83.0% 84.6% 86.6% 0.98× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.4% 10.3% 7.6% 1.34× 9.73
Dundee (2:0) 6.6% 6.4% 6.0% 1.07× 15.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.4% 49.9% — — 2.00
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.2% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to concede 78.8% 76.1% 66.9% 1.14× 1.31
Kilmarnock clean sheet 21.2% 23.9% 33.1% 0.72× 4.18
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock clean sheet in 1st half 53.8% 55.9% — — 1.79
Kilmarnock to concede in 1st half 46.2% 44.1% — — 2.27
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to concede in 2nd half 60.6% 59.7% — — 1.68
Kilmarnock clean sheet in 2nd half 39.4% 40.3% — — 2.48
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock over 2.5 corners 84.3% 81.0% — — 1.24
Kilmarnock under 6.5 corners 72.2% 71.9% — — 1.39
Kilmarnock over 3.5 corners 70.7% 71.9% — — 1.39
Kilmarnock under 5.5 corners 59.6% 57.5% — — 1.74
Kilmarnock over 4.5 corners 55.3% 57.5% — — 1.74
Kilmarnock under 4.5 corners 44.7% 42.5% — — 2.35
Kilmarnock over 5.5 corners 40.4% 42.5% — — 2.35
Kilmarnock under 3.5 corners 29.3% 28.1% — — 3.56
Kilmarnock over 6.5 corners 27.8% 28.1% — — 3.56
Kilmarnock under 2.5 corners 15.7% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 3.5 goals 90.7% 92.2% 92.1% 1.00× 1.09
Kilmarnock over 0.5 goals 81.7% 82.2% 79.5% 1.03× 1.22
Kilmarnock under 2.5 goals 75.7% 77.7% 76.2% 1.02× 1.29
Kilmarnock over 1.5 goals 50.7% 53.2% 48.6% 1.10× 1.88
Kilmarnock under 1.5 goals 49.3% 46.8% 51.4% 0.91× 2.14
Kilmarnock over 2.5 goals 24.3% 22.3% 23.8% 0.94× 4.49
Kilmarnock under 0.5 goals 18.3% 17.8% 20.5% 0.87× 5.62
Kilmarnock over 3.5 goals 9.3% 7.8% 7.9% 0.99× 12.82
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 1.5 in 1st half 83.3% 84.1% — — 1.19
Kilmarnock over 0.5 in 1st half 51.9% 50.7% — — 1.97
Kilmarnock under 0.5 in 1st half 48.1% 49.3% — — 2.03
Kilmarnock over 1.5 in 1st half 16.7% 15.9% — — 6.30
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock scores more in 2nd half 39.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
Kilmarnock scores equally in both 33.7% 33.3% — — 3.00
Kilmarnock scores more in 1st half 26.5% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (home no bet) 60.7% 60.0% 57.0% 1.05× 1.67
Draw (home no bet) 39.3% 40.0% 43.0% 0.93× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock even goals 51.7% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Kilmarnock odd goals 48.3% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 25.8% 28.4% — — 3.53
HT 1-0 18.9% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 16.1% 18.5% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 11.7% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 2-0 6.9% 6.9% — — 14.55
Any other HT score 6.2% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 0-2 5.0% 2.4% — — 42.08
HT 2-1 4.3% 2.4% — — 42.12
HT 1-2 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.16
HT 2-2 1.3% 2.4% — — 42.32
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock at HT / Kilmarnock at FT 25.1% 27.2% — — 3.68
Dundee at HT / Dundee at FT 19.4% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Kilmarnock at FT 13.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Dundee at FT 13.0% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.2% 12.7% — — 7.90
Kilmarnock at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.1% — — 16.53
Dundee at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.5% — — 28.84
Kilmarnock at HT / Dundee at FT 3.1% 3.5% — — 28.91
Dundee at HT / Kilmarnock at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.92
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to score last 50.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Dundee to score last 45.9% 46.3% — — 2.16
No goal scored 3.7% 4.4% — — 22.85
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.3% 95.6% — — 1.05
Kilmarnock to lead by 1 at any time 60.3% 61.1% — — 1.64
Dundee to lead by 1 at any time 55.0% 50.7% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 53.6% 50.6% — — 1.98
Kilmarnock to lead by 2 at any time 29.5% 25.4% — — 3.95
Dundee to lead by 2 at any time 24.6% 19.6% — — 5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.9% 19.5% — — 5.13
Kilmarnock to lead by 3 at any time 11.9% 10.6% — — 9.44
Dundee to lead by 3 at any time 9.0% 6.7% — — 14.97
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock most corners 57.5% 55.6% — — 1.80
Dundee most corners 31.2% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 11.3% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.1% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.7% 78.7% 76.7% 1.03× 1.27
1-4 goals 73.4% 72.3% 79.8% 0.91× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.3% 72.3% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.6% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
3-6 goals 58.3% 59.1% 55.2% 1.07× 1.69
1-3 goals 55.3% 59.1% 61.6% 0.96× 1.69
3-5 goals 52.0% 53.2% 49.6% 1.07× 1.88
2-3 goals 42.5% 43.6% 45.7% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.2% 43.6% 42.4% 1.03× 2.29
4-6 goals 36.1% 39.2% 31.2% 1.26× 2.55
1-2 goals 33.2% 35.2% 37.6% 0.94× 2.84
4-5 goals 29.8% 30.2% 25.6% 1.18× 3.31
5-6 goals 18.1% 18.8% 13.0% 1.45× 5.31
7+ goals 4.8% 2.6% 1.9% 1.38× 39.05
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock never behind 41.3% 48.7% — — 2.06
Dundee never behind 36.0% 44.1% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.8% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.2% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.3% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.7% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.0% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.0% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.3% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.9% 87.6% 92.6% 0.95× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 83.4% 82.3% 78.3% 1.05× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 77.1% 77.3% 85.3% 0.91× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 63.1% 61.7% 56.8% 1.09× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 59.1% 58.6% 67.1% 0.87× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 40.9% 41.4% 32.9% 1.26× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 36.9% 38.3% 43.2% 0.89× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 22.9% 22.7% 14.7% 1.55× 4.40
Under 1.5 goals 16.6% 17.7% 21.7% 0.82× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 11.1% 12.4% 7.4% 1.67× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 3.7% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.9% 92.4% 98.0% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 87.4% 86.7% 92.0% 0.94× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 79.2% 75.9% 72.4% 1.05× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 72.1% 72.4% 82.1% 0.88× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.6% 51.9% 43.2% 1.20× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.4% 48.1% 56.8% 0.85× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 27.9% 27.6% 17.9% 1.54× 3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 20.8% 24.1% 27.6% 0.87× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 12.6% 13.3% 8.0% 1.65× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.1% 7.6% 2.0% 3.84× 13.21
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.5% 85.8% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 74.2% 71.4% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 60.9% 63.3% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 39.1% 36.7% — — 2.73
Under 0.5 in 1st half 25.8% 28.6% — — 3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.5% 14.2% — — 7.05
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.1% 85.2% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 70.4% 77.7% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 56.6% 55.1% — — 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.4% 44.9% — — 2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 29.6% 22.3% — — 4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.9% 14.8% — — 6.76
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to score in both halves 72.0% 73.9% — — 1.35
Kilmarnock not to score in both halves 67.8% 70.1% — — 1.43
Kilmarnock to score in both halves 32.2% 29.9% — — 3.34
Dundee to score in both halves 28.0% 26.1% — — 3.83
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 64.3% 60.3% 52.3% 1.15× 1.66
Only Kilmarnock scores 17.4% 16.0% 27.5% 0.58× 6.24
Only Dundee scores 14.5% 11.0% 14.9% 0.74× 9.06
Neither team scores 3.7% 4.6% 5.8% 0.80× 21.57
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 20.3% 22.6% 21.7% 1.04× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 18.0% 17.5% 18.4% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 12.8% 12.1% 16.1% 0.75× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 11.7% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
6 or more goals 11.1% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 3.7% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.34
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.0% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 25.8% 28.6% — — 3.50
2 goals in 1st half 23.6% 21.4% — — 4.67
3+ goals in 1st half 15.5% 15.7% — — 6.38
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 56.6% 54.0% — — 1.85
1 goal in 2nd half 28.5% 29.1% — — 3.43
No goals in 2nd half 14.9% 14.6% — — 6.83
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to win both halves 91.0% 94.1% — — 1.06
Kilmarnock not to win both halves 88.1% 88.0% — — 1.14
Kilmarnock to win both halves 11.9% 12.0% — — 8.32
Dundee to win both halves 9.0% 5.9% — — 17.01
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to win either half 57.2% 59.0% — — 1.69
Dundee to win either half 51.3% 54.3% — — 1.84
Dundee to win neither half 48.7% 45.7% — — 2.19
Kilmarnock to win neither half 42.8% 41.0% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to win to nil 85.5% 88.1% 85.1% 1.04× 1.14
Kilmarnock not to win to nil 82.6% 83.1% 72.5% 1.15× 1.20
Kilmarnock to win to nil 17.4% 16.9% 27.5% 0.62× 5.91
Dundee to win to nil 14.5% 11.9% 14.9% 0.80× 8.40
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 22.9% 24.1% 23.3% 1.03× 4.15
Kilmarnock by 1 20.2% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Dundee by 1 18.4% 17.0% 17.8% 0.96× 5.87
Kilmarnock by 2 12.5% 11.8% 14.5% 0.81× 8.51
Dundee by 2 10.4% 11.8% 7.6% 1.54× 8.51
Kilmarnock by 3+ 9.1% 7.2% 12.2% 0.59× 13.90
Dundee by 3+ 6.6% 7.2% 6.0% 1.20× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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