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Kolos Kovalivka v Karpaty Lviv — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · UKR-Premier League · 2627

UKR-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Kolos Kovalivka win
31.3%
model 31.6%
Draw
37.4%
model 36.1%
Karpaty Lviv win
31.3%
model 32.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (7,697 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-0 17.3%
  2. 1-1 15.5%
  3. 0-1 12.4%
  4. 1-0 12.2%
  5. 0-2 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.529.0% Under 2.571.0%
BTTS yes39.1% BTTS no60.9%
Kolos Kovalivka 1+60.6% Kolos Kovalivka 2+23.9%
Karpaty Lviv 1+61.2% Karpaty Lviv 2+24.4%

Expected goals 0.93 – 0.95. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
26/100
Data quality
30/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 33%
58.2% fair odds 1.72
strong signal · 7646 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 1.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 66%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 583 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • At home Kolos Kovalivka average 1.35 xG a match.
  • They have had 14 days' rest to Karpaty Lviv's 6.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Kolos Kovalivka have only 0 matches on record.
  • Karpaty Lviv have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

The draw is the single most likely outcome at 37.4%, with Kolos Kovalivka at 31.3% and Karpaty Lviv at 31.3%. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.93 for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.95 for Karpaty Lviv.

Why Kolos Kovalivka

At home Kolos Kovalivka average 1.35 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Karpaty Lviv's 6.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 37.4%. A combined 1.88 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 0.93 to 0.95.

Why Karpaty Lviv can win

Away from home Karpaty Lviv average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Kolos Kovalivka, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Karpaty Lviv, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Kolos Kovalivka: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Karpaty Lviv: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

A draw is the model's most likely outcome at 37.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-0 at 17.3%. Confidence 26/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.93–0.95 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.73–0.87 0-0 22% 22% 32%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 36.1% 37.7% 25.0% 1.51× 2.66
Karpaty Lviv to win 32.3% 31.5% 30.6% 1.03× 3.17
Kolos Kovalivka to win 31.6% 31.5% 44.4% 0.71× 3.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv & not both score 22.1% 21.7% 16.0% 1.36× 4.61
Kolos Kovalivka & not both score 21.5% 21.7% 24.4% 0.89× 4.61
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 18.1% 17.7% 1.03× 5.52
Draw & not both score 17.3% 18.1% 7.3% 2.48× 5.52
Karpaty Lviv & both teams score 10.3% 12.7% 14.6% 0.87× 7.88
Kolos Kovalivka & both teams score 10.1% 12.7% 20.1% 0.63× 7.88
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & under 2.5 32.8% 31.8% 18.8% 1.69× 3.15
Draw & under 3.5 32.8% 31.8% 18.8% 1.69× 3.15
Karpaty Lviv & under 3.5 27.8% 26.4% 21.6% 1.22× 3.79
Kolos Kovalivka & under 3.5 27.2% 26.4% 30.3% 0.87× 3.79
Kolos Kovalivka & over 1.5 19.3% 17.7% 34.1% 0.52× 5.64
Karpaty Lviv & over 1.5 19.9% 17.7% 23.1% 0.77× 5.64
Karpaty Lviv & under 2.5 19.3% 17.7% 12.2% 1.45× 5.64
Kolos Kovalivka & under 2.5 18.9% 17.7% 17.5% 1.01× 5.64
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 17.7% 17.7% 1.00× 5.64
Draw & under 1.5 17.3% 17.7% 7.3% 2.43× 5.64
Kolos Kovalivka & under 1.5 12.2% 12.4% 10.4% 1.20× 8.06
Kolos Kovalivka & over 2.5 12.7% 12.4% 26.9% 0.46× 8.06
Karpaty Lviv & under 1.5 12.4% 12.4% 7.5% 1.65× 8.06
Karpaty Lviv & over 2.5 13.0% 12.4% 18.4% 0.68× 8.06
Karpaty Lviv & over 3.5 4.5% 4.4% 9.0% 0.49× 22.79
Kolos Kovalivka & over 3.5 4.4% 4.4% 14.2% 0.31× 22.79
Draw & over 2.5 3.3% 4.4% 6.2% 0.71× 22.79
Draw & over 3.5 3.3% 4.4% 6.2% 0.71× 22.79
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv (1UP) 45.6% 48.0% 50.4% 0.95× 2.08
Kolos Kovalivka (1UP) 44.9% 42.6% 59.8% 0.71× 2.35
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv (2UP) 32.3% 35.5% 34.2% 1.04× 2.82
Kolos Kovalivka (2UP) 31.6% 35.5% 45.2% 0.78× 2.82
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 45.6% 44.7% 32.7% 1.37× 2.24
Karpaty Lviv to win 2nd half 28.4% 28.3% 29.7% 0.95× 3.53
Kolos Kovalivka to win 2nd half 26.0% 28.3% 37.7% 0.75× 3.54
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv under 1.5 in 2nd half 88.9% 86.0% 82.3% 1.04× 1.16
Karpaty Lviv under 0.5 in 2nd half 56.7% 54.8% 46.6% 1.18× 1.82
Karpaty Lviv over 0.5 in 2nd half 43.3% 45.2% 53.4% 0.85× 2.22
Karpaty Lviv over 1.5 in 2nd half 11.1% 14.0% 17.7% 0.79× 7.13
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka under 1.5 in 2nd half 90.0% 91.0% 77.4% 1.18× 1.10
Kolos Kovalivka under 0.5 in 2nd half 58.8% 58.5% 41.4% 1.42× 1.71
Kolos Kovalivka over 0.5 in 2nd half 41.2% 41.5% 58.7% 0.71× 2.41
Kolos Kovalivka over 1.5 in 2nd half 10.0% 9.0% 22.6% 0.40× 11.08
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv (+2.5) 96.7% 96.6% 90.1% 1.07× 1.04
Karpaty Lviv (+1.5) 87.9% 87.4% 77.7% 1.12× 1.14
Karpaty Lviv (+0.5) 68.4% 67.9% 55.6% 1.22× 1.47
Kolos Kovalivka (+0.5) 67.7% 67.9% 69.4% 0.98× 1.47
Karpaty Lviv (-0.5) 32.3% 32.1% 30.6% 1.05× 3.12
Kolos Kovalivka (-0.5) 31.6% 32.1% 44.4% 0.72× 3.12
Kolos Kovalivka (-1.5) 12.1% 12.6% 22.3% 0.57× 7.94
Kolos Kovalivka (-2.5) 3.3% 3.4% 9.9% 0.34× 29.63
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv to concede 60.6% 64.9% 76.7% 0.85× 1.54
Karpaty Lviv clean sheet 39.4% 35.1% 23.3% 1.51× 2.85
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv clean sheet in 1st half 67.0% 69.3% 51.8% 1.34× 1.44
Karpaty Lviv to concede in 1st half 33.0% 30.7% 48.2% 0.64× 3.25
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv clean sheet in 2nd half 58.8% 58.9% 41.4% 1.42× 1.70
Karpaty Lviv to concede in 2nd half 41.2% 41.1% 58.7% 0.70× 2.43
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv under 3.5 goals 98.4% 97.3% 95.7% 1.02× 1.03
Karpaty Lviv under 2.5 goals 92.9% 92.2% 87.0% 1.06× 1.09
Karpaty Lviv under 1.5 goals 75.6% 76.4% 66.3% 1.15× 1.31
Karpaty Lviv over 0.5 goals 61.2% 63.6% 68.3% 0.93× 1.57
Karpaty Lviv under 0.5 goals 38.8% 36.4% 31.7% 1.15× 2.75
Karpaty Lviv over 1.5 goals 24.4% 23.6% 33.7% 0.70× 4.23
Karpaty Lviv over 2.5 goals 7.1% 7.8% 13.0% 0.61× 12.75
Karpaty Lviv over 3.5 goals 1.6% 2.7% 4.3% 0.62× 37.14
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv under 1.5 in 1st half 94.4% 93.9% 89.4% 1.05× 1.07
Karpaty Lviv under 0.5 in 1st half 68.5% 67.9% 59.0% 1.15× 1.47
Karpaty Lviv over 0.5 in 1st half 31.5% 32.1% 41.0% 0.78× 3.12
Karpaty Lviv over 1.5 in 1st half 5.6% 6.1% 10.6% 0.58× 16.32
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv scores equally in both 47.6% 45.6% 40.6% 1.12× 2.19
Karpaty Lviv scores more in 2nd half 32.6% 33.3% 36.5% 0.91× 3.00
Karpaty Lviv scores more in 1st half 19.7% 17.3% 22.9% 0.76× 5.77
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 53.4% 52.4% 36.0% 1.46× 1.91
Kolos Kovalivka (away no bet) 46.6% 47.6% 64.0% 0.74× 2.10
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv even goals 57.5% 56.4% 55.7% 1.01× 1.77
Karpaty Lviv odd goals 42.5% 43.6% 44.3% 0.99× 2.29
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 94.5% 90.9% 82.7% 1.10× 1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals 5.5% 9.1% 17.3% 0.53× 10.99
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 56.1% 59.6% 33.8% 1.76× 1.68
Not both halves under 1.5 43.9% 40.4% 66.2% 0.61× 2.48
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 37.1% 37.0% 58.6% 0.63× 2.70
Karpaty Lviv to score 2+ in a row 19.9% 17.0% 28.6% 0.60× 5.87
Kolos Kovalivka to score 2+ in a row 19.4% 17.0% 36.9% 0.46× 5.87
Either team to score 3+ in a row 9.4% 7.8% 22.9% 0.34× 12.88
Karpaty Lviv to score 3+ in a row 4.8% 3.2% 9.1% 0.35× 31.53
Kolos Kovalivka to score 3+ in a row 4.7% 3.2% 14.2% 0.22× 31.58
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-0 17.3% 15.5% 7.3% 2.12× 6.45
1-1 15.5% 15.5% 11.5% 1.35× 6.45
0-1 12.4% 11.2% 7.5% 1.49× 8.91
1-0 12.2% 11.2% 10.4% 1.08× 8.91
0-2 6.8% 7.4% 4.7% 1.58× 13.45
1-2 6.4% 7.4% 7.0% 1.06× 13.45
2-0 6.6% 7.4% 7.2% 1.04× 13.45
2-1 6.3% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.45
0-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.34
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.93× 58.35
1-3 2.0% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.34
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.69× 58.35
2-2 3.0% 1.7% 5.1% 0.34× 58.34
2-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.35
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.89× 58.35
3-0 2.1% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.34
3-1 2.0% 1.7% 4.2% 0.41× 58.34
3-2 0.9% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.35
3-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.72× 58.35
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.65× 58.35
4-0 0.5% 1.7% 1.8% 0.98× 58.35
4-1 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.35
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.87× 58.35
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.62× 58.35
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 16.16× 58.35
Any other score 0.6% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.35
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv (2nd half DNB) 52.2% 51.3% 44.1% 1.16× 1.95
Kolos Kovalivka (2nd half DNB) 47.8% 48.7% 55.9% 0.87× 2.05
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka leading at HT (DNB) 51.8% 54.6% 56.7% 0.96× 1.83
Karpaty Lviv leading at HT (DNB) 48.2% 45.4% 43.3% 1.05× 2.20
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv or draw (X2) 68.4% 68.5% 55.6% 1.23× 1.46
Kolos Kovalivka or draw (1X) 67.7% 68.5% 69.4% 0.99× 1.46
Kolos Kovalivka or Karpaty Lviv (12) 63.9% 62.3% 75.0% 0.83× 1.60
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka or draw at HT 77.7% 76.8% 74.1% 1.04× 1.30
Karpaty Lviv or draw at HT 76.1% 76.7% 66.2% 1.16× 1.30
Kolos Kovalivka or Karpaty Lviv at HT 46.2% 50.5% 59.7% 0.85× 1.98
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv or draw (1UP) 68.4% 71.4% 63.9% 1.12× 1.40
Kolos Kovalivka or draw (1UP) 67.7% 71.4% 74.2% 0.96× 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv or draw in 2nd half 74.0% 71.7% 62.3% 1.15× 1.39
Kolos Kovalivka or draw in 2nd half 71.6% 71.7% 70.3% 1.02× 1.40
Kolos Kovalivka or Karpaty Lviv in 2nd half 54.4% 55.3% 67.3% 0.82× 1.81
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 72.8% 73.6% 58.9% 1.25× 1.36
Neither half drawn 27.2% 26.4% 41.1% 0.64× 3.79
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv (DNB) 50.6% 51.6% 40.8% 1.27× 1.94
Kolos Kovalivka (DNB) 49.4% 48.4% 59.2% 0.82× 2.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv to score first 41.6% 43.7% 42.9% 1.02× 2.29
Kolos Kovalivka to score first 41.0% 43.7% 51.2% 0.85× 2.29
No goal scored 17.3% 16.5% 5.9% 2.79× 6.07
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 60.9% 59.0% 47.6% 1.24× 1.70
Both teams to score 39.1% 41.1% 52.4% 0.78× 2.44
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 55.5% 55.5% 37.1% 1.50× 1.80
Both score & over 2.5 23.6% 25.0% 40.9% 0.61× 4.00
Both score & under 2.5 15.5% 17.6% 11.5% 1.53× 5.70
Not both score & over 2.5 5.4% 8.4% 10.6% 0.80× 11.86
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 94.2% 89.9% 86.0% 1.05× 1.11
Both teams to score 2+ 5.8% 10.1% 14.0% 0.72× 9.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 81.5% 73.5% 70.2% 1.05× 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 18.5% 26.5% 29.8% 0.89× 3.77
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 72.6% 65.3% 57.8% 1.13× 1.53
Both score 2nd half only 16.7% 18.4% 23.8% 0.77× 5.44
Both score 1st half only 8.9% 6.9% 12.5% 0.56× 14.39
Both score in both halves 1.9% 4.8% 6.0% 0.80× 20.79
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 89.3% 84.8% 81.5% 1.04× 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 10.7% 15.2% 18.5% 0.82× 6.57
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 62.9% 63.5% 41.1% 1.54× 1.58
A goal in each half 37.1% 36.5% 58.9% 0.62× 2.74
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.9% 46.5% 45.4% 1.02× 2.15
0-1 goals 42.0% 43.6% 25.2% 1.73× 2.29
4-6 goals 11.8% 14.9% 27.0% 0.55× 6.71
7+ goals 0.3% 2.0% 2.4% 0.83× 49.81
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv to score exactly 0 38.8% 36.0% 31.7% 1.14× 2.78
Karpaty Lviv to score exactly 1 36.7% 36.0% 34.6% 1.04× 2.78
Karpaty Lviv to score exactly 2 17.4% 18.2% 20.8% 0.88× 5.49
Karpaty Lviv to score 3+ 7.1% 8.6% 13.0% 0.66× 11.64
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka to score exactly 0 39.4% 36.6% 23.3% 1.57× 2.73
Kolos Kovalivka to score exactly 1 36.7% 36.6% 33.1% 1.11× 2.73
Kolos Kovalivka to score exactly 2 17.1% 18.1% 24.0% 0.76× 5.51
Kolos Kovalivka to score 3+ 6.8% 8.9% 19.7% 0.45× 11.27
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 53.8% 49.5% 40.3% 1.23× 2.02
Kolos Kovalivka leading at HT 23.9% 23.3% 33.8% 0.69× 4.30
Karpaty Lviv leading at HT 22.3% 23.2% 25.9% 0.90× 4.31
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv -1: 1 67.7% 67.0% 1.49
Karpaty Lviv -1: X 19.8% 17.8% 5.61
Karpaty Lviv -1: 2 12.5% 14.5% 6.91
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv (0:1) 68.4% 64.6% 55.6% 1.16× 1.55
Draw (0:1) 19.5% 18.2% 22.2% 0.82× 5.49
Kolos Kovalivka (0:1) 12.1% 13.1% 22.3% 0.59× 7.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv (0:2) 87.9% 86.7% 77.7% 1.12× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.8% 7.7% 12.3% 0.62× 12.96
Kolos Kovalivka (0:2) 3.3% 3.5% 9.9% 0.35× 28.48
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv (0:3) 96.7% 96.7% 90.1% 1.07× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.6% 2.6% 5.9% 0.43× 39.17
Kolos Kovalivka (0:3) 0.7% 2.6% 4.0% 0.63× 39.20
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv (0:4) 99.3% 97.8% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
Kolos Kovalivka (0:4) 0.1% 1.4% 1.5% 0.94× 70.77
Draw (0:4) 0.6% 1.4% 2.5% 0.56× 70.75
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka (1:0) 67.7% 69.1% 69.4% 0.99× 1.45
Draw (1:0) 19.8% 17.3% 17.0% 1.02× 5.77
Karpaty Lviv (1:0) 12.5% 12.6% 13.6% 0.93× 7.97
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka (2:0) 87.5% 88.1% 86.4% 1.02× 1.14
Draw (2:0) 9.1% 6.6% 8.1% 0.81× 15.10
Karpaty Lviv (2:0) 3.4% 2.8% 5.4% 0.51× 35.90
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 41.1% 48.5% 48.6% 1.00× 2.06
Halves equal 34.5% 27.7% 25.2% 1.10× 3.61
1st half highest scoring 24.4% 23.3% 26.3% 0.88× 4.30
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka to concede 61.2% 65.0% 68.3% 0.95× 1.54
Kolos Kovalivka clean sheet 38.8% 35.0% 31.7% 1.10× 2.86
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka clean sheet in 1st half 68.5% 67.6% 59.0% 1.15× 1.48
Kolos Kovalivka to concede in 1st half 31.5% 32.4% 41.0% 0.79× 3.08
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka clean sheet in 2nd half 56.7% 54.6% 46.6% 1.17× 1.83
Kolos Kovalivka to concede in 2nd half 43.3% 45.4% 53.4% 0.85× 2.20
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka under 3.5 goals 98.5% 96.6% 92.4% 1.05× 1.04
Kolos Kovalivka under 2.5 goals 93.2% 92.4% 80.3% 1.15× 1.08
Kolos Kovalivka under 1.5 goals 76.1% 78.2% 56.3% 1.39× 1.28
Kolos Kovalivka over 0.5 goals 60.6% 62.4% 76.7% 0.81× 1.60
Kolos Kovalivka under 0.5 goals 39.4% 37.6% 23.3% 1.62× 2.66
Kolos Kovalivka over 1.5 goals 23.9% 21.8% 43.7% 0.50× 4.58
Kolos Kovalivka over 2.5 goals 6.8% 7.7% 19.7% 0.39× 13.07
Kolos Kovalivka over 3.5 goals 1.5% 3.4% 7.6% 0.45× 29.45
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka under 1.5 in 1st half 93.8% 93.4% 85.9% 1.09× 1.07
Kolos Kovalivka under 0.5 in 1st half 67.0% 69.1% 51.8% 1.33× 1.45
Kolos Kovalivka over 0.5 in 1st half 33.0% 30.9% 48.2% 0.64× 3.23
Kolos Kovalivka over 1.5 in 1st half 6.2% 6.6% 14.1% 0.46× 15.22
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka scores equally in both 48.2% 48.8% 37.1% 1.31× 2.05
Kolos Kovalivka scores more in 2nd half 30.4% 32.1% 38.0% 0.85× 3.11
Kolos Kovalivka scores more in 1st half 21.4% 23.1% 24.9% 0.93× 4.32
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 52.8% 52.0% 44.9% 1.16× 1.92
Karpaty Lviv (home no bet) 47.2% 48.0% 55.1% 0.87× 2.08
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka even goals 57.8% 55.6% 52.8% 1.05× 1.80
Kolos Kovalivka odd goals 42.2% 44.4% 47.2% 0.94× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 46.2% 46.6% 29.3% 1.59× 2.15
HT 1-0 18.0% 19.9% 20.7% 0.96× 5.03
HT 0-1 17.0% 19.9% 16.3% 1.22× 5.03
HT 1-1 7.3% 8.0% 10.2% 0.78× 12.54
HT 2-0 3.7% 2.5% 7.1% 0.35× 40.41
HT 0-2 3.3% 2.5% 4.9% 0.51× 40.43
HT 1-2 1.3% 2.5% 2.8% 0.89× 40.52
HT 2-1 1.4% 2.5% 3.3% 0.75× 40.52
Any other HT score 1.5% 2.5% 4.7% 0.52× 40.52
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.5% 0.9% 2.76× 40.57
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 26.5% 25.1% 14.1% 1.77× 3.99
Kolos Kovalivka at HT / Kolos Kovalivka at FT 17.3% 17.3% 25.8% 0.67× 5.78
Karpaty Lviv at HT / Karpaty Lviv at FT 16.6% 17.3% 17.4% 0.99× 5.78
Draw at HT / Karpaty Lviv at FT 14.2% 12.0% 11.6% 1.04× 8.32
Draw at HT / Kolos Kovalivka at FT 13.0% 12.0% 14.7% 0.82× 8.32
Kolos Kovalivka at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.4% 5.1% 1.25× 15.51
Karpaty Lviv at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.6% 5.6% 0.65× 27.51
Kolos Kovalivka at HT / Karpaty Lviv at FT 1.5% 3.6% 3.0% 1.22× 27.59
Karpaty Lviv at HT / Kolos Kovalivka at FT 1.2% 3.6% 2.9% 1.25× 27.60
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv to score last 41.6% 43.4% 42.7% 1.02× 2.30
Kolos Kovalivka to score last 41.0% 43.4% 51.4% 0.84× 2.31
No goal scored 17.3% 14.2% 5.9% 2.41× 7.03
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 82.7% 86.4% 94.1% 0.92× 1.16
Karpaty Lviv to lead by 1 at any time 45.6% 46.5% 50.4% 0.92× 2.15
Kolos Kovalivka to lead by 1 at any time 44.9% 41.8% 59.8% 0.70× 2.39
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 31.2% 31.6% 48.2% 0.66× 3.16
Karpaty Lviv to lead by 2 at any time 15.8% 17.6% 20.3% 0.87× 5.69
Kolos Kovalivka to lead by 2 at any time 15.4% 17.6% 28.2% 0.62× 5.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 8.1% 7.4% 19.5% 0.38× 13.46
Karpaty Lviv to lead by 3 at any time 4.1% 2.6% 7.4% 0.36× 37.88
Kolos Kovalivka to lead by 3 at any time 4.0% 2.6% 12.1% 0.22× 37.93
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 81.4% 82.1% 86.4% 0.95× 1.22
1-4 goals 78.4% 77.9% 78.0% 1.00× 1.28
1-3 goals 70.5% 72.2% 63.3% 1.14× 1.39
2-6 goals 57.7% 58.9% 72.4% 0.81× 1.70
2-5 goals 56.8% 58.9% 68.5% 0.86× 1.70
2-4 goals 53.8% 52.9% 60.1% 0.88× 1.89
1-2 goals 53.7% 52.9% 41.2% 1.28× 1.89
2-3 goals 45.9% 47.4% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
3-6 goals 28.7% 28.5% 49.0% 0.58× 3.51
3-5 goals 27.8% 28.5% 45.1% 0.63× 3.51
3-4 goals 24.8% 23.7% 36.8% 0.65× 4.22
4-6 goals 11.8% 13.5% 27.0% 0.50× 7.42
4-5 goals 10.9% 13.5% 23.0% 0.59× 7.42
5-6 goals 3.9% 2.3% 12.3% 0.18× 44.21
7+ goals 0.3% 2.3% 2.4% 0.93× 44.30
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karpaty Lviv never behind 37.8% 47.3% 40.2% 1.18× 2.11
Kolos Kovalivka never behind 37.1% 47.3% 49.6% 0.95× 2.11
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 55.2% 51.2% 49.8% 1.03× 1.95
Odd number of goals 44.8% 48.8% 50.2% 0.97× 2.05
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 61.2% 61.0% 53.7% 1.14× 1.64
Odd goals in 1st half 38.8% 39.0% 46.3% 0.84× 2.57
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 56.9% 51.6% 51.1% 1.01× 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 43.1% 48.4% 48.9% 0.99× 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.7% 96.0% 93.7% 1.03× 1.04
Under 4.5 goals 95.8% 96.0% 85.3% 1.13× 1.04
Under 3.5 goals 87.9% 87.8% 70.6% 1.24× 1.14
Over 0.5 goals 82.7% 81.6% 92.7% 0.88× 1.23
Under 2.5 goals 71.0% 72.4% 48.5% 1.49× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 58.0% 57.8% 74.8% 0.77× 1.73
Under 1.5 goals 42.0% 42.2% 25.2% 1.68× 2.37
Over 2.5 goals 29.0% 27.6% 51.5% 0.54× 3.62
Under 0.5 goals 17.3% 18.4% 7.3% 2.52× 5.44
Over 3.5 goals 12.1% 12.2% 29.4% 0.41× 8.21
Over 4.5 goals 4.2% 4.0% 14.7% 0.27× 25.19
Over 5.5 goals 1.3% 4.0% 6.3% 0.63× 25.22
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.7% 97.3% 97.5% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.7% 97.3% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 95.4% 97.3% 82.8% 1.18× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 85.4% 86.6% 62.3% 1.39× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 59.1% 58.2% 32.9% 1.77× 1.72
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 40.9% 41.8% 67.1% 0.62× 2.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 14.6% 13.4% 37.7% 0.35× 7.48
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 4.6% 2.7% 17.2% 0.16× 36.67
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.3% 2.7% 6.9% 0.39× 36.72
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.3% 2.7% 2.5% 1.08× 36.73
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 95.6% 97.3% 88.4% 1.10× 1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half 81.3% 83.1% 66.3% 1.25× 1.20
Over 0.5 in 1st half 53.8% 50.9% 70.7% 0.72× 1.97
Under 0.5 in 1st half 46.2% 49.1% 29.3% 1.68× 2.04
Over 1.5 in 1st half 18.7% 16.9% 33.7% 0.50× 5.91
Over 2.5 in 1st half 4.4% 2.7% 11.6% 0.23× 37.71
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 90.1% 89.7% 77.5% 1.16× 1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 69.3% 67.0% 50.2% 1.33× 1.49
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 66.0% 66.7% 82.3% 0.81× 1.50
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 34.0% 33.3% 17.7% 1.88× 3.01
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 30.7% 33.0% 49.8% 0.66× 3.03
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 9.9% 10.3% 22.5% 0.46× 9.70
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka not to score in both halves 86.4% 85.6% 70.5% 1.21× 1.17
Karpaty Lviv not to score in both halves 86.4% 85.6% 77.6% 1.10× 1.17
Karpaty Lviv to score in both halves 13.6% 14.4% 22.4% 0.64× 6.92
Kolos Kovalivka to score in both halves 13.6% 14.4% 29.5% 0.49× 6.92
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 39.1% 39.4% 52.4% 0.75× 2.54
Only Karpaty Lviv scores 22.1% 21.5% 16.0% 1.35× 4.64
Only Kolos Kovalivka scores 21.5% 21.5% 24.4% 0.88× 4.64
Neither team scores 17.3% 16.9% 7.3% 2.31× 5.93
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 29.0% 25.0% 23.3% 1.07× 4.00
Exactly 1 goals 24.7% 22.3% 17.9% 1.24× 4.49
Exactly 0 goals 17.3% 17.6% 7.3% 2.41× 5.68
Exactly 3 goals 16.9% 17.6% 22.1% 0.80× 5.68
Exactly 4 goals 7.9% 7.8% 14.7% 0.53× 12.88
Exactly 5 goals 3.0% 4.0% 8.4% 0.48× 24.74
6 or more goals 1.3% 4.0% 6.3% 0.64× 24.75
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 46.2% 46.6% 29.3% 1.59× 2.15
1 goal in 1st half 35.0% 36.8% 37.0% 1.00× 2.71
2 goals in 1st half 14.3% 11.4% 22.2% 0.52× 8.74
3+ goals in 1st half 4.4% 2.7% 11.6% 0.23× 37.71
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 35.2% 38.7% 32.5% 1.19× 2.59
No goals in 2nd half 34.0% 34.3% 17.7% 1.94× 2.91
2+ goals in 2nd half 30.7% 34.3% 49.8% 0.69× 2.92
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka not to win both halves 93.5% 92.6% 86.8% 1.07× 1.08
Karpaty Lviv not to win both halves 93.4% 92.6% 91.8% 1.01× 1.08
Karpaty Lviv to win both halves 6.6% 7.4% 8.2% 0.90× 13.56
Kolos Kovalivka to win both halves 6.5% 7.4% 13.2% 0.56× 13.57
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka to win neither half 56.5% 58.1% 41.7% 1.39× 1.72
Karpaty Lviv to win neither half 55.9% 58.1% 52.6% 1.10× 1.72
Karpaty Lviv to win either half 44.1% 41.9% 47.4% 0.88× 2.39
Kolos Kovalivka to win either half 43.5% 41.9% 58.3% 0.72× 2.39
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kolos Kovalivka not to win to nil 78.5% 78.4% 75.6% 1.04× 1.28
Karpaty Lviv not to win to nil 77.9% 78.4% 84.0% 0.93× 1.28
Karpaty Lviv to win to nil 22.1% 21.6% 16.0% 1.35× 4.63
Kolos Kovalivka to win to nil 21.5% 21.6% 24.4% 0.89× 4.63
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 36.1% 35.2% 25.0% 1.41× 2.84
Kolos Kovalivka by 1 19.5% 17.2% 22.2% 0.78× 5.80
Karpaty Lviv by 1 19.8% 17.2% 17.0% 1.01× 5.80
Kolos Kovalivka by 2 8.8% 7.3% 12.3% 0.59× 13.77
Karpaty Lviv by 2 9.1% 7.3% 8.1% 0.89× 13.77
Kolos Kovalivka by 3+ 3.3% 3.0% 9.9% 0.30× 33.45
Karpaty Lviv by 3+ 3.4% 3.0% 5.4% 0.55× 33.45
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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