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Krasnodar v Rubin Kazan — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Krasnodar win
65.4%
model 61.9%
Draw
23.4%
model 24.4%
Rubin Kazan win
11.2%
model 13.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 12.7%
  2. 2-0 12.6%
  3. 1-1 11.5%
  4. 2-1 9.5%
  5. 0-0 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.547.8% Under 2.552.2%
BTTS yes45.6% BTTS no54.4%
Krasnodar 1+84.0% Krasnodar 2+54.7%
Rubin Kazan 1+53.0% Rubin Kazan 2+17.5%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.75. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Krasnodar (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 44%
63.7% fair odds 1.57
strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 12.5 corners
Corners O/U
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 4340 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Krasnodar carry the stronger rating, 1768 Elo against 1549.
  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Krasnodar have an estimated 65.4% win probability, against 23.4% for the draw and 11.2% for Rubin Kazan. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.83 for Krasnodar and 0.75 for Rubin Kazan.

Why Krasnodar

Krasnodar carry the stronger rating, 1768 Elo against 1549. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.4%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Rubin Kazan can win

Nothing in the data singles out Rubin Kazan.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Krasnodar, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rubin Kazan, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Krasnodar: 53% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rubin Kazan: 53% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Krasnodar are the model's most likely outcome at 65.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.7%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.83–0.75 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.69–0.69 1-0 14% 43% 42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to win 60.4% 58.1% 44.1% 1.32× 1.72
Draw 26.0% 27.9% 28.0% 0.99× 3.59
Rubin Kazan to win 13.7% 13.5% 28.0% 0.48× 7.43
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar & not both score 39.8% 33.4% 25.4% 1.31× 3.00
Krasnodar & both teams score 20.6% 21.8% 18.9% 1.15× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 15.5% 18.0% 20.9% 0.86× 5.57
Draw & not both score 10.4% 13.3% 7.3% 1.81× 7.54
Rubin Kazan & not both score 8.0% 8.3% 14.8% 0.56× 12.00
Rubin Kazan & both teams score 5.7% 8.3% 13.4% 0.62× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar & over 1.5 45.9% 45.0% 33.5% 1.34× 2.22
Krasnodar & under 3.5 44.3% 40.3% 30.9% 1.30× 2.48
Krasnodar & over 2.5 32.7% 30.8% 26.0% 1.18× 3.25
Krasnodar & under 2.5 27.7% 26.1% 18.3% 1.42× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 22.4% 21.6% 22.2% 0.98× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 22.4% 21.6% 22.2% 0.98× 4.63
Krasnodar & over 3.5 16.1% 18.0% 13.4% 1.34× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.5% 18.0% 20.9% 0.86× 5.56
Krasnodar & under 1.5 14.5% 12.8% 10.8% 1.19× 7.79
Rubin Kazan & under 3.5 11.6% 12.8% 20.5% 0.63× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 10.4% 12.8% 7.3% 1.75× 7.79
Rubin Kazan & over 1.5 8.5% 7.9% 20.5% 0.39× 12.63
Rubin Kazan & under 2.5 7.4% 7.9% 11.8% 0.67× 12.63
Rubin Kazan & over 2.5 6.3% 7.9% 16.5% 0.48× 12.63
Rubin Kazan & under 1.5 5.2% 7.9% 7.7% 1.03× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 3.6% 4.8% 6.1% 0.79× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 3.6% 4.8% 6.1% 0.79× 20.82
Rubin Kazan & over 3.5 2.1% 4.8% 7.7% 0.62× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (1UP) 70.7% 75.0% — — 1.33
Rubin Kazan (1UP) 28.5% 26.8% — — 3.73
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (2UP) 60.4% 67.9% — — 1.47
Rubin Kazan (2UP) 13.7% 14.0% — — 7.13
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to win 2nd half 47.8% 45.2% — — 2.21
2nd half drawn 37.1% 36.5% — — 2.74
Rubin Kazan to win 2nd half 15.1% 17.7% — — 5.66
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 1.5 in 2nd half 93.5% 91.9% — — 1.09
Rubin Kazan under 0.5 in 2nd half 66.1% 69.5% — — 1.44
Rubin Kazan over 0.5 in 2nd half 33.9% 30.5% — — 3.28
Rubin Kazan over 1.5 in 2nd half 6.5% 8.1% — — 12.33
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.9% 74.5% — — 1.34
Krasnodar over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.9% 63.1% — — 1.59
Krasnodar under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.1% 36.9% — — 2.71
Krasnodar over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.1% 25.5% — — 3.92
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (+0.5) 86.3% 88.5% 72.0% 1.23× 1.13
Rubin Kazan (+2.5) 84.4% 82.6% 89.6% 0.92× 1.21
Rubin Kazan (+1.5) 65.2% 68.7% 77.4% 0.89× 1.46
Krasnodar (-0.5) 60.4% 62.9% 44.1% 1.43× 1.59
Rubin Kazan (+0.5) 39.6% 37.1% 55.9% 0.66× 2.70
Krasnodar (-1.5) 34.8% 31.3% 22.6% 1.39× 3.19
Krasnodar (-2.5) 15.6% 17.4% 10.4% 1.68× 5.74
Rubin Kazan (-0.5) 13.7% 11.5% 28.0% 0.41× 8.66
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to concede 81.6% 81.5% 78.0% 1.04× 1.23
Rubin Kazan clean sheet 18.4% 18.5% 22.0% 0.84× 5.39
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to concede in 1st half 51.7% 50.9% — — 1.97
Rubin Kazan clean sheet in 1st half 48.3% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to concede in 2nd half 61.9% 61.8% — — 1.62
Rubin Kazan clean sheet in 2nd half 38.1% 38.2% — — 2.62
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 6.5 corners 93.2% 89.9% — — 1.11
Rubin Kazan under 5.5 corners 86.6% 85.2% — — 1.17
Rubin Kazan under 4.5 corners 75.6% 76.0% — — 1.32
Rubin Kazan over 2.5 corners 60.6% 61.7% — — 1.62
Rubin Kazan under 3.5 corners 59.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Rubin Kazan over 3.5 corners 40.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Rubin Kazan under 2.5 corners 39.4% 38.3% — — 2.61
Rubin Kazan over 4.5 corners 24.4% 24.0% — — 4.17
Rubin Kazan over 5.5 corners 13.4% 14.8% — — 6.77
Rubin Kazan over 6.5 corners 6.8% 10.1% — — 9.90
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.5% 97.0% 1.01× 1.03
Rubin Kazan under 2.5 goals 96.7% 97.5% 88.8% 1.10× 1.03
Rubin Kazan under 1.5 goals 84.8% 81.5% 70.1% 1.16× 1.23
Rubin Kazan under 0.5 goals 50.2% 53.5% 32.5% 1.65× 1.87
Rubin Kazan over 0.5 goals 49.8% 46.5% 67.5% 0.69× 2.15
Rubin Kazan over 1.5 goals 15.2% 18.5% 29.9% 0.62× 5.41
Rubin Kazan over 2.5 goals 3.3% 2.5% 11.2% 0.22× 39.80
Rubin Kazan over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.5% 3.0% 0.82× 39.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 1.5 in 1st half 96.8% 96.2% — — 1.04
Rubin Kazan under 0.5 in 1st half 75.9% 74.8% — — 1.34
Rubin Kazan over 0.5 in 1st half 24.1% 25.2% — — 3.97
Rubin Kazan over 1.5 in 1st half 3.2% 3.8% — — 26.09
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan scores equally in both 56.1% 52.8% — — 1.90
Rubin Kazan scores more in 2nd half 27.1% 26.5% — — 3.78
Rubin Kazan scores more in 1st half 16.8% 18.0% — — 5.57
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (away no bet) 69.9% 66.5% 61.1% 1.09× 1.50
Draw (away no bet) 30.1% 33.5% 38.9% 0.86× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan even goals 62.6% 59.1% 53.3% 1.11× 1.69
Rubin Kazan odd goals 37.4% 40.9% 46.7% 0.87× 2.45
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 89.4% 88.0% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.6% 12.0% — — 8.34
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 56.6% 60.2% — — 1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals 43.4% 39.8% — — 2.51
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 52.3% 50.9% — — 1.97
Krasnodar to score 2+ in a row 45.0% 38.9% — — 2.57
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.5% 19.5% — — 5.13
Krasnodar to score 3+ in a row 18.9% 16.2% — — 6.18
Rubin Kazan to score 2+ in a row 10.3% 12.1% — — 8.27
Rubin Kazan to score 3+ in a row 1.7% 2.5% — — 39.95
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar corners (+3.5) 95.0% 89.6% — — 1.12
Krasnodar corners (+2.5) 90.8% 89.6% — — 1.12
Krasnodar corners (+1.5) 84.3% 79.8% — — 1.25
Rubin Kazan corners (+3.5) 72.0% 70.7% — — 1.41
Rubin Kazan corners (+2.5) 60.9% 61.8% — — 1.62
Krasnodar corners (-1.5) 51.5% 52.4% — — 1.91
Rubin Kazan corners (+1.5) 48.5% 47.6% — — 2.10
Krasnodar corners (-2.5) 39.1% 38.2% — — 2.62
Krasnodar corners (-3.5) 28.0% 29.3% — — 3.42
Rubin Kazan corners (-1.5) 15.7% 20.2% — — 4.95
Rubin Kazan corners (-2.5) 9.2% 10.4% — — 9.59
Rubin Kazan corners (-3.5) 5.0% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 56.3% 46.5% — — 2.15
9-11 corners 27.8% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 15.9% 22.5% — — 4.44
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 89.6% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 84.1% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 76.7% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 67.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 8.5 corners 56.3% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 7.5 corners 55.8% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 7.5 corners 44.2% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 8.5 corners 43.7% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 32.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 23.3% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 15.9% 19.3% — — 5.17
Over 12.5 corners 10.4% 16.9% — — 5.92
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 14.5% 11.5% 10.8% 1.07× 8.71
2-0 13.2% 11.5% 7.7% 1.49× 8.71
1-1 12.0% 11.5% 15.0% 0.76× 8.71
0-0 10.4% 11.5% 7.3% 1.57× 8.72
2-1 9.1% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
3-0 7.5% 7.4% 4.1% 1.82× 13.51
0-1 5.2% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.51
3-1 5.1% 7.4% 4.3% 1.73× 13.51
0-2 2.2% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
0-3 0.5% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.32
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.22× 58.32
1-2 3.7% 1.7% 6.7% 0.26× 58.30
1-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.31
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.69× 58.32
2-2 3.1% 1.7% 5.1% 0.34× 58.30
2-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.32
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.11× 58.32
3-2 1.8% 1.7% 2.2% 0.77× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.41× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.22× 58.32
4-0 3.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.30
4-1 2.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.21× 58.31
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.11× 58.31
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.22× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.44× 58.32
Any other score 3.0% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (2nd half DNB) 76.0% 79.3% — — 1.26
Rubin Kazan (2nd half DNB) 24.0% 20.7% — — 4.84
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar leading at HT (DNB) 77.2% 75.2% — — 1.33
Rubin Kazan leading at HT (DNB) 22.8% 24.8% — — 4.03
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw (1X) 86.3% 86.5% 72.0% 1.20× 1.16
Krasnodar or Rubin Kazan (12) 74.0% 72.1% 72.0% 1.00× 1.39
Rubin Kazan or draw (X2) 39.6% 41.9% 55.9% 0.75× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw at HT 87.4% 88.4% — — 1.13
Rubin Kazan or draw at HT 57.4% 57.4% — — 1.74
Krasnodar or Rubin Kazan at HT 55.2% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw (1UP) 86.3% 91.9% — — 1.09
Rubin Kazan or draw (1UP) 39.6% 41.9% — — 2.39
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw in 2nd half 84.9% 82.3% — — 1.22
Krasnodar or Rubin Kazan in 2nd half 62.9% 63.5% — — 1.57
Rubin Kazan or draw in 2nd half 52.2% 54.8% — — 1.83
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.0% 61.4% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 36.0% 38.6% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (DNB) 81.5% 80.3% 61.1% 1.31× 1.25
Rubin Kazan (DNB) 18.5% 19.7% 38.9% 0.51× 5.09
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to score first 63.7% 64.0% — — 1.56
Rubin Kazan to score first 25.9% 27.7% — — 3.61
No goal scored 10.4% 9.3% — — 10.73
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 58.2% 55.0% 47.2% 1.17× 1.82
Both teams to score 41.8% 45.0% 52.8% 0.85× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 45.5% 44.3% 37.0% 1.20× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 29.8% 33.3% 38.0% 0.88× 3.00
Not both score & over 2.5 12.7% 12.4% 10.4% 1.19× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 12.0% 12.4% 15.0% 0.82× 8.09
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.3% 89.0% 86.8% 1.03× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.7% 11.0% 13.2% 0.83× 9.10
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 78.6% 75.4% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 21.4% 24.6% — — 4.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 68.6% 63.7% — — 1.57
Both score 2nd half only 18.7% 15.0% — — 6.67
Both score 1st half only 10.0% 10.7% — — 9.34
Both score in both halves 2.6% 4.8% — — 20.64
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.3% 85.0% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 12.7% 15.0% — — 6.66
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 52.1% 52.6% — — 1.90
A goal in each half 47.9% 47.4% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.2% 47.2% 48.0% 0.98× 2.12
0-1 goals 30.1% 30.7% 25.4% 1.21× 3.26
4-6 goals 20.6% 22.9% 25.4% 0.90× 4.36
7+ goals 1.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.13× 54.45
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to score exactly 0 50.2% 47.0% 32.5% 1.45× 2.13
Rubin Kazan to score exactly 1 34.6% 33.8% 37.8% 0.90× 2.96
Rubin Kazan to score exactly 2 11.9% 12.9% 18.9% 0.68× 7.76
Rubin Kazan to score 3+ 3.3% 4.6% 11.2% 0.41× 21.85
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to score exactly 1 31.2% 32.6% 35.2% 0.93× 3.07
Krasnodar to score exactly 2 26.4% 26.5% 24.6% 1.08× 3.77
Krasnodar to score 3+ 24.1% 23.3% 18.7% 1.25× 4.29
Krasnodar to score exactly 0 18.4% 18.8% 22.0% 0.86× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.8% 42.6% — — 2.35
Krasnodar leading at HT 42.6% 42.6% — — 2.35
Rubin Kazan leading at HT 12.6% 11.6% — — 8.60
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar -1: 2 39.6% 37.5% — — 2.67
Krasnodar -1: 1 34.8% 30.1% — — 3.32
Krasnodar -1: X 25.5% 26.5% — — 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (0:1) 39.6% 37.4% 55.9% 0.67× 2.67
Krasnodar (0:1) 34.8% 30.2% 22.6% 1.34× 3.31
Draw (0:1) 25.5% 27.0% 21.7% 1.24× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (0:2) 65.2% 72.2% 77.4% 0.93× 1.39
Draw (0:2) 19.2% 15.3% 12.4% 1.23× 6.56
Krasnodar (0:2) 15.6% 15.2% 10.4% 1.47× 6.57
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (0:3) 84.4% 85.4% 89.6% 0.95× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 9.9% 5.8% 5.9% 0.99× 17.20
Krasnodar (0:3) 5.7% 5.8% 4.7% 1.24× 17.27
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (0:4) 94.3% 94.6% 95.3% 0.99× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.0% 1.2% 3.7% 0.34× 81.46
Krasnodar (0:4) 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.00× 81.71
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (1:0) 86.3% 86.1% 72.0% 1.20× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 9.7% 6.9% 16.9% 0.41× 14.46
Rubin Kazan (1:0) 4.0% 3.3% 11.4% 0.29× 30.51
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (2:0) 96.0% 96.8% 88.6% 1.09× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.2% 2.3% 7.3% 0.31× 43.73
Rubin Kazan (2:0) 0.8% 2.3% 4.3% 0.53× 43.88
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.5% 45.7% — — 2.19
Halves equal 28.9% 26.3% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 26.6% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar clean sheet 50.2% 53.1% 32.5% 1.63× 1.88
Krasnodar to concede 49.8% 46.9% 67.5% 0.70× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar clean sheet in 1st half 75.9% 77.2% — — 1.30
Krasnodar to concede in 1st half 24.1% 22.8% — — 4.38
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar clean sheet in 2nd half 66.1% 66.6% — — 1.50
Krasnodar to concede in 2nd half 33.9% 33.4% — — 2.99
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar over 2.5 corners 83.1% 81.0% — — 1.24
Krasnodar under 6.5 corners 74.5% 71.9% — — 1.39
Krasnodar over 3.5 corners 68.9% 66.7% — — 1.50
Krasnodar under 5.5 corners 62.0% 62.3% — — 1.61
Krasnodar over 4.5 corners 53.0% 52.6% — — 1.90
Krasnodar under 4.5 corners 47.0% 47.4% — — 2.11
Krasnodar over 5.5 corners 38.0% 37.7% — — 2.65
Krasnodar under 3.5 corners 31.1% 33.3% — — 3.01
Krasnodar over 6.5 corners 25.5% 28.1% — — 3.56
Krasnodar under 2.5 corners 16.9% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar under 3.5 goals 90.8% 92.2% 92.7% 0.99× 1.09
Krasnodar over 0.5 goals 81.6% 82.2% 78.0% 1.05× 1.22
Krasnodar under 2.5 goals 75.9% 77.7% 81.3% 0.96× 1.29
Krasnodar over 1.5 goals 50.4% 53.2% 43.1% 1.23× 1.88
Krasnodar under 1.5 goals 49.6% 46.8% 56.9% 0.82× 2.14
Krasnodar over 2.5 goals 24.1% 22.3% 18.7% 1.19× 4.49
Krasnodar under 0.5 goals 18.4% 17.8% 22.0% 0.81× 5.62
Krasnodar over 3.5 goals 9.2% 7.8% 7.3% 1.07× 12.82
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar under 1.5 in 1st half 83.5% 84.1% — — 1.19
Krasnodar over 0.5 in 1st half 51.7% 50.7% — — 1.97
Krasnodar under 0.5 in 1st half 48.3% 49.3% — — 2.03
Krasnodar over 1.5 in 1st half 16.5% 15.9% — — 6.30
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar scores more in 2nd half 39.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
Krasnodar scores equally in both 33.8% 33.3% — — 3.00
Krasnodar scores more in 1st half 26.5% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 65.5% 64.1% 50.0% 1.28× 1.56
Rubin Kazan (home no bet) 34.5% 35.9% 50.0% 0.72× 2.78
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar even goals 51.7% 50.7% 50.6% 1.00× 1.97
Krasnodar odd goals 48.3% 49.3% 49.4% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 36.9% 38.5% — — 2.60
HT 1-0 26.5% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 0-1 9.9% 6.9% — — 14.50
HT 2-0 9.7% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 1-1 7.6% 6.9% — — 14.54
Any other HT score 4.0% 2.4% — — 42.14
HT 2-1 2.7% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT 0-2 1.4% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT 1-2 1.0% 2.4% — — 42.34
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.4% — — 42.38
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar at HT / Krasnodar at FT 37.5% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw at HT / Krasnodar at FT 20.7% 21.5% — — 4.65
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.9% 16.8% — — 5.96
Rubin Kazan at HT / Rubin Kazan at FT 6.7% 6.1% — — 16.50
Draw at HT / Rubin Kazan at FT 6.2% 6.1% — — 16.52
Krasnodar at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% — — 28.86
Rubin Kazan at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.5% — — 28.88
Rubin Kazan at HT / Krasnodar at FT 2.2% 3.5% — — 28.94
Krasnodar at HT / Rubin Kazan at FT 0.9% 3.5% — — 28.99
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to score last 63.9% 62.2% — — 1.61
Rubin Kazan to score last 25.7% 27.1% — — 3.70
No goal scored 10.4% 8.7% — — 11.47
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 89.6% 91.7% — — 1.09
Krasnodar to lead by 1 at any time 70.7% 73.9% — — 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 46.1% 44.3% — — 2.26
Krasnodar to lead by 2 at any time 39.6% 34.9% — — 2.87
Rubin Kazan to lead by 1 at any time 28.5% 25.3% — — 3.95
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.7% 14.9% — — 6.73
Krasnodar to lead by 3 at any time 17.5% 14.8% — — 6.74
Rubin Kazan to lead by 2 at any time 6.6% 6.6% — — 15.08
Rubin Kazan to lead by 3 at any time 1.2% 1.6% — — 64.08
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar most corners 64.0% 60.6% — — 1.65
Rubin Kazan most corners 24.7% 25.9% — — 3.86
Corners level 11.3% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.1% 87.4% 87.6% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.2% 83.4% 79.7% 1.05× 1.20
2-6 goals 68.8% 68.8% 73.2% 0.94× 1.45
1-3 goals 67.9% 68.8% 66.1% 1.04× 1.45
2-5 goals 66.5% 68.8% 69.5% 0.99× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.6% 63.3% 61.6% 1.03× 1.58
2-3 goals 48.2% 48.4% 48.0% 1.01× 2.06
1-2 goals 47.1% 48.4% 44.7% 1.08× 2.06
3-6 goals 41.4% 43.6% 46.7% 0.93× 2.29
3-5 goals 39.1% 39.2% 43.1% 0.91× 2.55
3-4 goals 33.2% 35.2% 35.2% 1.00× 2.84
4-6 goals 20.6% 24.4% 25.4% 0.96× 4.09
4-5 goals 18.3% 18.8% 21.7% 0.87× 5.31
5-6 goals 8.2% 8.9% 11.8% 0.75× 11.26
7+ goals 1.1% 2.6% 1.6% 1.57× 39.22
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar never behind 61.1% 68.1% — — 1.47
Rubin Kazan never behind 18.9% 18.5% — — 5.40
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.2% 50.9% 48.8% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.8% 49.1% 51.2% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 42.9% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.0% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.0% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.6% 95.4% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 90.7% 92.3% 86.8% 1.06× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 89.6% 87.6% 92.7% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 78.3% 77.3% 73.2% 1.06× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 69.9% 66.3% 74.6% 0.89× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 57.5% 58.6% 51.8% 1.13× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 42.5% 41.4% 48.2% 0.86× 2.42
Under 1.5 goals 30.1% 33.7% 25.4% 1.33× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 21.7% 22.7% 26.8% 0.85× 4.40
Under 0.5 goals 10.4% 12.4% 7.3% 1.69× 8.07
Over 4.5 goals 9.3% 7.7% 13.2% 0.59× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 3.4% 4.6% 5.3% 0.87× 21.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.9% 97.2% 98.3% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.3% 97.2% 94.3% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 89.3% 86.8% 84.7% 1.02× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 72.6% 72.4% 65.9% 1.10× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 58.6% 55.8% 65.5% 0.85× 1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 41.4% 44.2% 34.5% 1.28× 2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 27.4% 27.6% 34.1% 0.81× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 10.7% 13.3% 15.3% 0.87× 7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.7% 2.8% 5.7% 0.49× 35.58
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.1% 2.8% 1.7% 1.66× 35.65
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.9% 92.8% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 73.3% 71.4% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 63.1% 63.4% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 36.9% 36.6% — — 2.73
Over 1.5 in 1st half 26.7% 28.6% — — 3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.1% 7.2% — — 13.82
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 83.9% 83.0% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 74.4% 77.9% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 59.6% 55.2% — — 1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 40.4% 44.8% — — 2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.6% 22.1% — — 4.52
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 16.1% 17.0% — — 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan not to score in both halves 91.8% 90.4% — — 1.11
Krasnodar not to score in both halves 68.0% 70.1% — — 1.43
Krasnodar to score in both halves 32.0% 29.9% — — 3.34
Rubin Kazan to score in both halves 8.2% 9.6% — — 10.45
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 41.8% 46.6% 52.8% 0.88× 2.15
Only Krasnodar scores 39.8% 39.9% 25.4% 1.57× 2.50
Neither team scores 10.4% 11.0% 7.3% 1.51× 9.07
Only Rubin Kazan scores 8.0% 7.1% 14.8% 0.48× 14.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.4% 24.9% 26.6% 0.93× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 20.8% 22.6% 21.5% 1.05× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 19.7% 17.5% 18.3% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 12.4% 12.1% 13.8% 0.88× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 10.4% 12.1% 7.3% 1.66× 8.26
Exactly 5 goals 5.9% 7.6% 8.1% 0.94× 13.14
6 or more goals 3.4% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 36.9% 37.2% — — 2.69
1 goal in 1st half 36.4% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 18.7% 15.8% — — 6.35
3+ goals in 1st half 8.1% 7.2% — — 13.82
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 40.4% 44.4% — — 2.25
1 goal in 2nd half 33.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
No goals in 2nd half 25.6% 29.0% — — 3.45
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan not to win both halves 98.0% 97.3% — — 1.03
Krasnodar not to win both halves 79.4% 75.8% — — 1.32
Krasnodar to win both halves 20.6% 24.2% — — 4.13
Rubin Kazan to win both halves 2.0% 2.7% — — 36.39
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to win neither half 74.3% 73.2% — — 1.37
Krasnodar to win either half 69.8% 68.0% — — 1.47
Krasnodar to win neither half 30.2% 32.0% — — 3.12
Rubin Kazan to win either half 25.7% 26.8% — — 3.73
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan not to win to nil 92.0% 92.1% 85.2% 1.08× 1.09
Krasnodar not to win to nil 60.2% 66.5% 74.6% 0.89× 1.51
Krasnodar to win to nil 39.8% 33.5% 25.4% 1.32× 2.98
Rubin Kazan to win to nil 8.0% 7.9% 14.8% 0.53× 12.64
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.0% 27.9% 28.0% 0.99× 3.59
Krasnodar by 1 25.5% 27.9% 21.7% 1.28× 3.59
Krasnodar by 2 19.2% 17.0% 12.4% 1.38× 5.87
Krasnodar by 3+ 15.6% 17.0% 10.4% 1.64× 5.87
Rubin Kazan by 1 9.7% 7.2% 16.9% 0.43× 13.90
Rubin Kazan by 2 3.2% 2.7% 7.3% 0.37× 36.87
Rubin Kazan by 3+ 0.8% 2.7% 4.3% 0.63× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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