Krylia Sovetov v Rodina Moscow — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Krylia Sovetov

2–1

15:00 UTC

Rodina Moscow

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 3h before kick-off

Krylia Sovetov win

41.5%

model 42.4%

Draw

27.1%

model 25.2%

Rodina Moscow win

31.5%

model 32.4%

412731

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,406 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
2-1 8.9%
1-2 7.7%
2-2 6.7%
2-0 5.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.5%	Under 2.5	36.5%
BTTS yes	65.7%	BTTS no	34.3%
Krylia Sovetov 1+	82.7%	Krylia Sovetov 2+	52.4%
Rodina Moscow 1+	78.1%	Rodina Moscow 2+	44.9%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.52. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

69/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 34%

52.0% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 7157 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Krylia Sovetov (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 89%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 4439 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Krylia Sovetov.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Rodina Moscow have only 4 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Krylia Sovetov have an estimated 41.5% win probability, against 31.5% for Rodina Moscow and 27.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.75 for Krylia Sovetov and 1.52 for Rodina Moscow.

Why Krylia Sovetov

Nothing in the data singles out Krylia Sovetov.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.1%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.75 to 1.52. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Rodina Moscow can win

Rodina Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1484 Elo against 1422.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Krylia Sovetov, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rodina Moscow, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Krylia Sovetov: 49% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rodina Moscow: 44% possession, 7.2 shots a match, 19.5 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Krylia Sovetov are the model's most likely outcome at 41.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 69/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	422532	1.76–1.52	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	422533	1.77–1.57	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	492229	2.25–1.72	2-1 8%	76%	74%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	362341	1.82–1.95	1-1 9%	72%	73%	Away ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov to win	49.1%	47.6%	44.1%	1.08×	2.10
Rodina Moscow to win	29.1%	27.7%	28.2%	0.98×	3.61
Draw	21.8%	24.6%	28.0%	0.88×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov & both teams score	34.0%	29.3%	18.8%	1.56×	3.42
Rodina Moscow & both teams score	21.2%	21.8%	13.5%	1.62×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.55
Krylia Sovetov & not both score	15.2%	18.0%	25.5%	0.71×	5.55
Rodina Moscow & not both score	7.9%	8.4%	14.9%	0.56×	11.97
Draw & not both score	2.7%	4.9%	7.3%	0.67×	20.39

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov & over 1.5	45.7%	44.8%	33.5%	1.34×	2.23
Krylia Sovetov & over 2.5	40.9%	40.0%	25.9%	1.54×	2.50
Krylia Sovetov & over 3.5	29.1%	25.9%	13.5%	1.93×	3.85
Rodina Moscow & over 1.5	26.6%	25.9%	20.6%	1.26×	3.86
Rodina Moscow & over 2.5	23.8%	21.6%	16.5%	1.31×	4.63
Krylia Sovetov & under 3.5	20.0%	21.6%	30.8%	0.70×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.57
Rodina Moscow & over 3.5	15.9%	18.0%	7.8%	2.32×	5.57
Rodina Moscow & under 3.5	13.2%	12.9%	20.6%	0.62×	7.78
Draw & over 2.5	11.0%	12.9%	5.9%	2.17×	7.78
Draw & under 2.5	10.8%	12.9%	22.2%	0.58×	7.78
Draw & over 3.5	11.0%	12.9%	5.9%	2.17×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	10.8%	12.9%	22.2%	0.58×	7.78
Krylia Sovetov & under 2.5	8.2%	8.0%	18.4%	0.43×	12.57
Rodina Moscow & under 2.5	5.3%	8.0%	11.8%	0.67×	12.57
Krylia Sovetov & under 1.5	3.5%	4.9%	10.8%	0.45×	20.58
Draw & under 1.5	2.7%	4.9%	7.3%	0.66×	20.58
Rodina Moscow & under 1.5	2.5%	4.9%	7.8%	0.63×	20.59

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov (1UP)	68.7%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Rodina Moscow (1UP)	52.6%	52.8%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov (2UP)	49.1%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Rodina Moscow (2UP)	29.1%	24.9%	—	—	4.01

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov to win 2nd half	41.8%	41.1%	—	—	2.44
Rodina Moscow to win 2nd half	29.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
2nd half drawn	28.6%	26.4%	—	—	3.78

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow under 1.5 in 2nd half	72.3%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Rodina Moscow over 0.5 in 2nd half	64.4%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Rodina Moscow under 0.5 in 2nd half	35.6%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Rodina Moscow over 1.5 in 2nd half	27.7%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.2%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Krylia Sovetov under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.4%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Krylia Sovetov over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Krylia Sovetov under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.8%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow (+2.5)	84.7%	82.6%	89.6%	0.92×	1.21
Krylia Sovetov (+0.5)	70.9%	73.7%	71.8%	1.03×	1.36
Rodina Moscow (+1.5)	69.9%	68.7%	77.3%	0.89×	1.46
Rodina Moscow (+0.5)	50.9%	52.1%	55.9%	0.93×	1.92
Krylia Sovetov (-0.5)	49.1%	47.9%	44.1%	1.09×	2.09
Krylia Sovetov (-1.5)	30.1%	31.3%	22.7%	1.38×	3.20
Rodina Moscow (-0.5)	29.1%	26.3%	28.2%	0.94×	3.80
Krylia Sovetov (-2.5)	15.3%	17.4%	10.4%	1.67×	5.75

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow to concede	89.4%	86.3%	78.0%	1.11×	1.16
Rodina Moscow clean sheet	10.6%	13.7%	22.0%	0.62×	7.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow to concede in 1st half	61.9%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Rodina Moscow clean sheet in 1st half	38.1%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow to concede in 2nd half	72.2%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Rodina Moscow clean sheet in 2nd half	27.8%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow under 3.5 goals	90.3%	92.2%	96.9%	0.95×	1.09
Rodina Moscow over 0.5 goals	82.1%	81.3%	67.3%	1.21×	1.23
Rodina Moscow under 2.5 goals	75.1%	76.1%	88.8%	0.86×	1.31
Rodina Moscow over 1.5 goals	51.4%	53.5%	29.8%	1.80×	1.87
Rodina Moscow under 1.5 goals	48.6%	46.5%	70.2%	0.66×	2.15
Rodina Moscow over 2.5 goals	24.9%	23.9%	11.2%	2.13×	4.19
Rodina Moscow under 0.5 goals	17.9%	18.7%	32.7%	0.57×	5.34
Rodina Moscow over 3.5 goals	9.7%	7.8%	3.1%	2.55×	12.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow under 1.5 in 1st half	84.8%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Rodina Moscow under 0.5 in 1st half	50.2%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Rodina Moscow over 0.5 in 1st half	49.8%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Rodina Moscow over 1.5 in 1st half	15.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow scores more in 2nd half	43.0%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Rodina Moscow scores equally in both	33.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Rodina Moscow scores more in 1st half	24.0%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov (away no bet)	69.3%	66.6%	61.2%	1.09×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	30.7%	33.4%	38.8%	0.86×	2.99

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow even goals	51.6%	52.8%	53.3%	0.99×	1.90
Rodina Moscow odd goals	48.4%	47.2%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	66.9%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Both halves over 1.5 goals	33.1%	28.5%	—	—	3.50

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	83.8%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Both halves under 1.5 goals	16.2%	22.0%	—	—	4.55

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	74.7%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Krylia Sovetov to score 2+ in a row	53.2%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Rodina Moscow to score 2+ in a row	37.0%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row	34.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Krylia Sovetov to score 3+ in a row	23.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Rodina Moscow to score 3+ in a row	12.2%	12.1%	—	—	8.24

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	10.6%	11.4%	4.1%	2.78×	8.80
1-1	8.1%	7.4%	15.1%	0.49×	13.53
2-1	8.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.53
2-2	7.1%	7.4%	4.9%	1.51×	13.53
1-2	6.3%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.53
3-1	6.2%	7.4%	4.3%	1.72×	13.53
3-2	5.3%	7.4%	2.2%	3.29×	13.53
0-0	2.7%	1.7%	7.3%	0.24×	57.67
0-1	2.5%	1.7%	7.8%	0.22×	57.67
0-2	2.8%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	57.67
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	57.67
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.25×	57.68
1-0	3.5%	1.7%	10.8%	0.16×	57.66
1-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	57.66
1-4	1.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	57.67
2-0	4.8%	1.7%	7.8%	0.22×	57.66
2-3	4.1%	1.7%	2.7%	0.65×	57.66
2-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.12×	57.67
3-0	3.6%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	57.66
3-3	3.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.42×	57.66
3-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.25×	57.67
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	57.67
4-1	3.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.21×	57.66
4-2	3.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.12×	57.66
4-3	1.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.25×	57.67
4-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.2%	8.50×	57.68

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov (2nd half DNB)	58.5%	60.7%	—	—	1.65
Rodina Moscow (2nd half DNB)	41.5%	39.3%	—	—	2.54

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov leading at HT (DNB)	61.9%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Rodina Moscow leading at HT (DNB)	38.1%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov or Rodina Moscow (12)	78.2%	75.4%	72.0%	1.05×	1.33
Krylia Sovetov or draw (1X)	70.9%	72.3%	71.8%	1.01×	1.38
Rodina Moscow or draw (X2)	50.9%	52.4%	55.9%	0.94×	1.91

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov or draw at HT	75.0%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Krylia Sovetov or Rodina Moscow at HT	65.6%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Rodina Moscow or draw at HT	59.4%	57.0%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov or draw (1UP)	70.9%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Rodina Moscow or draw (1UP)	52.6%	59.2%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov or Rodina Moscow in 2nd half	71.5%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Krylia Sovetov or draw in 2nd half	70.3%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Rodina Moscow or draw in 2nd half	58.2%	58.9%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	47.8%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
A half drawn	52.2%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov (DNB)	62.8%	62.9%	61.0%	1.03×	1.59
Rodina Moscow (DNB)	37.2%	37.1%	39.0%	0.95×	2.70

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov to score first	55.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Rodina Moscow to score first	42.2%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	2.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.51

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	74.2%	63.0%	52.7%	1.20×	1.59
Not both teams to score	25.8%	37.0%	47.3%	0.78×	2.70

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	66.1%	56.7%	37.8%	1.50×	1.76
Not both score & under 2.5	16.2%	21.3%	37.1%	0.57×	4.69
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.4%	10.4%	0.81×	11.93
Both score & under 2.5	8.1%	8.4%	15.1%	0.55×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	66.3%	73.6%	86.9%	0.85×	1.36
Both teams to score 2+	33.7%	26.4%	13.1%	2.02×	3.78

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	53.2%	54.2%	—	—	1.85
Both teams to score in 2nd half	46.8%	45.8%	—	—	2.18

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	36.6%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Both score 2nd half only	32.4%	26.7%	—	—	3.75
Both score 1st half only	16.6%	15.6%	—	—	6.40
Both score in both halves	14.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	69.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Both teams to score by HT	31.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.41

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	73.3%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
A half without a goal	26.7%	26.8%	—	—	3.73

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	45.3%	46.9%	25.3%	1.85×	2.13
2-3 goals	35.4%	34.9%	48.0%	0.73×	2.86
7+ goals	10.7%	17.1%	1.6%	10.48×	5.84
0-1 goals	8.6%	7.6%	25.5%	0.30×	13.08

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow to score exactly 1	30.8%	33.6%	37.8%	0.89×	2.97
Rodina Moscow to score exactly 2	26.5%	27.6%	18.8%	1.47×	3.62
Rodina Moscow to score 3+	24.9%	22.5%	11.2%	2.01×	4.44
Rodina Moscow to score exactly 0	17.9%	19.5%	32.7%	0.60×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov to score 3+	38.9%	35.5%	18.8%	1.89×	2.81
Krylia Sovetov to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.2%	24.3%	1.08×	3.82
Krylia Sovetov to score exactly 1	23.8%	23.4%	35.3%	0.66×	4.28
Krylia Sovetov to score exactly 0	10.6%	14.3%	22.0%	0.65×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov leading at HT	40.6%	43.0%	—	—	2.33
Draw at HT	34.4%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Rodina Moscow leading at HT	25.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov -1: 2	50.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Krylia Sovetov -1: 1	30.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Krylia Sovetov -1: X	19.0%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow (0:1)	50.9%	51.3%	55.9%	0.92×	1.95
Krylia Sovetov (0:1)	30.1%	29.3%	22.7%	1.29×	3.41
Draw (0:1)	19.0%	17.8%	21.6%	0.82×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow (0:2)	69.9%	72.6%	77.3%	0.94×	1.38
Krylia Sovetov (0:2)	15.3%	15.0%	10.4%	1.44×	6.68
Draw (0:2)	14.8%	10.9%	12.4%	0.87×	9.21

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow (0:3)	84.7%	85.4%	89.6%	0.95×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	8.7%	5.9%	5.9%	1.00×	16.91
Krylia Sovetov (0:3)	6.6%	5.9%	4.7%	1.26×	16.94

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow (0:4)	93.4%	94.4%	95.3%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.2%	1.2%	3.7%	0.33×	81.40
Krylia Sovetov (0:4)	2.4%	1.2%	1.2%	1.00×	81.57

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov (1:0)	70.9%	72.6%	71.8%	1.01×	1.38
Rodina Moscow (1:0)	14.7%	12.8%	11.4%	1.12×	7.84
Draw (1:0)	14.4%	12.8%	16.9%	0.75×	7.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov (2:0)	85.3%	88.2%	88.6%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.7%	6.6%	7.3%	0.89×	15.25
Rodina Moscow (2:0)	5.9%	6.5%	4.3%	1.53×	15.28

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.0%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	21.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov to concede	82.1%	80.9%	67.3%	1.20×	1.24
Krylia Sovetov clean sheet	17.9%	19.1%	32.7%	0.59×	5.23

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov clean sheet in 1st half	50.2%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Krylia Sovetov to concede in 1st half	49.8%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov to concede in 2nd half	64.4%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Krylia Sovetov clean sheet in 2nd half	35.6%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov over 0.5 goals	89.4%	87.2%	78.0%	1.12×	1.15
Krylia Sovetov under 3.5 goals	81.1%	81.9%	92.7%	0.88×	1.22
Krylia Sovetov over 1.5 goals	65.6%	67.9%	42.9%	1.58×	1.47
Krylia Sovetov under 2.5 goals	61.1%	63.3%	81.2%	0.78×	1.58
Krylia Sovetov over 2.5 goals	38.9%	36.7%	18.8%	1.96×	2.72
Krylia Sovetov under 1.5 goals	34.4%	32.1%	57.1%	0.56×	3.11
Krylia Sovetov over 3.5 goals	18.9%	18.1%	7.3%	2.46×	5.53
Krylia Sovetov under 0.5 goals	10.6%	12.8%	22.0%	0.58×	7.83

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov under 1.5 in 1st half	74.8%	80.2%	—	—	1.25
Krylia Sovetov over 0.5 in 1st half	61.9%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Krylia Sovetov under 0.5 in 1st half	38.1%	35.4%	—	—	2.82
Krylia Sovetov over 1.5 in 1st half	25.2%	19.8%	—	—	5.05

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov scores more in 2nd half	43.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.36
Krylia Sovetov scores equally in both	28.3%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
Krylia Sovetov scores more in 1st half	28.0%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow (home no bet)	57.2%	56.1%	50.2%	1.12×	1.78
Draw (home no bet)	42.8%	43.9%	49.8%	0.88×	2.28

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov even goals	50.6%	50.4%	50.4%	1.00×	1.98
Krylia Sovetov odd goals	49.4%	49.6%	49.6%	1.00×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	19.2%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-0	18.3%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
HT 0-1	13.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 1-1	12.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
Any other HT score	10.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	8.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.00
HT 2-1	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 0-2	4.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.37
HT 1-2	4.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.38
HT 2-2	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov at HT / Krylia Sovetov at FT	31.4%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Rodina Moscow at HT / Rodina Moscow at FT	16.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Krylia Sovetov at FT	13.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.8%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Rodina Moscow at FT	9.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.60
Krylia Sovetov at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Rodina Moscow at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.74
Rodina Moscow at HT / Krylia Sovetov at FT	3.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Krylia Sovetov at HT / Rodina Moscow at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.79

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov to score last	55.1%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Rodina Moscow to score last	42.2%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	2.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.51

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.3%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Krylia Sovetov to lead by 1 at any time	68.7%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	63.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Rodina Moscow to lead by 1 at any time	52.6%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Krylia Sovetov to lead by 2 at any time	40.2%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	28.7%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Rodina Moscow to lead by 2 at any time	23.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Krylia Sovetov to lead by 3 at any time	19.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Rodina Moscow to lead by 3 at any time	8.9%	6.7%	—	—	15.03

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.7%	83.3%	73.1%	1.14×	1.20
1-5 goals	76.4%	78.5%	87.6%	0.90×	1.27
2-5 goals	70.4%	72.3%	69.4%	1.04×	1.38
3-6 goals	65.0%	68.8%	46.5%	1.48×	1.45
1-4 goals	60.8%	63.2%	79.6%	0.79×	1.58
2-4 goals	54.9%	53.4%	61.4%	0.87×	1.87
3-5 goals	54.8%	53.4%	42.9%	1.25×	1.87
4-6 goals	45.3%	48.5%	25.3%	1.92×	2.06
1-3 goals	41.3%	43.6%	66.1%	0.66×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.3%	34.9%	1.13×	2.55
2-3 goals	35.4%	39.3%	48.0%	0.82×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.1%	39.3%	21.6%	1.82×	2.55
5-6 goals	25.8%	30.6%	11.8%	2.59×	3.27
1-2 goals	21.6%	24.8%	44.9%	0.55×	4.04
7+ goals	10.7%	15.0%	1.6%	9.20×	6.66

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov never behind	44.7%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Rodina Moscow never behind	28.7%	30.2%	—	—	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.4%	51.0%	48.8%	1.05×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.6%	49.0%	51.2%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.9%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.3%	95.4%	92.7%	1.03×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	91.4%	92.2%	74.5%	1.24×	1.09
Under 5.5 goals	79.0%	77.2%	94.7%	0.82×	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	75.7%	77.2%	48.0%	1.61×	1.30
Under 4.5 goals	63.5%	62.0%	86.7%	0.71×	1.61
Over 3.5 goals	56.0%	58.5%	26.7%	2.19×	1.71
Under 3.5 goals	44.0%	41.5%	73.3%	0.57×	2.41
Over 4.5 goals	36.5%	38.0%	13.3%	2.87×	2.63
Under 2.5 goals	24.3%	22.8%	52.0%	0.44×	4.39
Over 5.5 goals	21.0%	22.8%	5.3%	4.29×	4.39
Under 1.5 goals	8.6%	7.8%	25.5%	0.31×	12.83
Under 0.5 goals	2.7%	4.6%	7.3%	0.63×	21.77

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	89.8%	86.6%	65.3%	1.33×	1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	88.1%	86.6%	98.3%	0.88×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	75.2%	75.9%	94.2%	0.81×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.8%	67.7%	33.9%	1.99×	1.48
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	54.7%	52.4%	84.7%	0.62×	1.91
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	45.3%	47.6%	15.3%	3.11×	2.10
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.2%	32.3%	66.1%	0.49×	3.09
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	24.8%	24.1%	5.8%	4.19×	4.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	11.9%	13.4%	1.7%	7.89×	7.47
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	10.2%	13.4%	34.7%	0.39×	7.48

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	80.8%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	76.9%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	50.6%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Over 1.5 in 1st half	49.4%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Over 2.5 in 1st half	23.1%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	19.2%	13.8%	—	—	7.23

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	89.8%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	67.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	59.3%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	40.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	32.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	10.2%	14.5%	—	—	6.91

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow not to score in both halves	67.9%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Krylia Sovetov not to score in both halves	55.3%	57.3%	—	—	1.74
Krylia Sovetov to score in both halves	44.7%	42.7%	—	—	2.35
Rodina Moscow to score in both halves	32.1%	29.5%	—	—	3.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	74.2%	66.8%	52.7%	1.27×	1.50
Only Krylia Sovetov scores	15.2%	16.0%	25.5%	0.63×	6.26
Only Rodina Moscow scores	7.9%	7.1%	14.9%	0.48×	14.04
Neither team scores	2.7%	4.6%	7.3%	0.63×	21.66

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	21.0%	22.4%	5.3%	4.23×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	19.5%	17.6%	13.7%	1.28×	5.70
Exactly 3 goals	19.7%	17.6%	21.4%	0.82×	5.70
Exactly 2 goals	15.7%	17.5%	26.7%	0.66×	5.70
Exactly 5 goals	15.5%	17.5%	8.2%	2.15×	5.70
Exactly 1 goals	5.9%	7.8%	18.4%	0.42×	12.86
Exactly 0 goals	2.7%	4.5%	7.3%	0.61×	22.25

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	31.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	26.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
3+ goals in 1st half	23.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
No goals in 1st half	19.2%	15.3%	—	—	6.54

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	67.5%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
1 goal in 2nd half	22.3%	23.0%	—	—	4.34
No goals in 2nd half	10.2%	14.3%	—	—	7.00

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow not to win both halves	92.5%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Krylia Sovetov not to win both halves	82.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Krylia Sovetov to win both halves	17.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.34
Rodina Moscow to win both halves	7.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.59

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Krylia Sovetov to win either half	65.2%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Rodina Moscow to win neither half	52.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Rodina Moscow to win either half	47.2%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Krylia Sovetov to win neither half	34.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rodina Moscow not to win to nil	92.1%	92.1%	85.1%	1.08×	1.09
Krylia Sovetov not to win to nil	84.8%	83.2%	74.5%	1.12×	1.20
Krylia Sovetov to win to nil	15.2%	16.8%	25.5%	0.66×	5.94
Rodina Moscow to win to nil	7.9%	7.9%	14.9%	0.53×	12.64

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.8%	24.2%	28.0%	0.86×	4.14
Krylia Sovetov by 1	19.0%	16.9%	21.6%	0.78×	5.92
Krylia Sovetov by 3+	15.3%	16.9%	10.4%	1.62×	5.92
Krylia Sovetov by 2	14.8%	11.7%	12.4%	0.94×	8.52
Rodina Moscow by 1	14.4%	11.7%	16.9%	0.69×	8.52
Rodina Moscow by 2	8.7%	7.3%	7.3%	0.99×	13.76
Rodina Moscow by 3+	5.9%	7.3%	4.3%	1.69×	13.77

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.