La Serena v Audax Italiano — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

La Serena

20:00 UTC

Audax Italiano

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 969h before kick-off

La Serena win

48.2%

model 47.1%

Draw

22.5%

model 20.8%

Audax Italiano win

29.3%

model 32.1%

482329

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 11.3%
1-1 9.7%
0-1 9.3%
2-1 9.2%
2-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.6%	Under 2.5	46.4%
BTTS yes	54.6%	BTTS no	45.4%
La Serena 1+	79.4%	La Serena 2+	46.9%
Audax Italiano 1+	71.2%	Audax Italiano 2+	35.4%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.25. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

77/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

2-5 goals

Multi goal · usually 64%

68.0% fair odds 1.47

moderate signal · 2774 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Audax Italiano not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 83%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out La Serena.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

La Serena have an estimated 48.2% win probability, against 29.3% for Audax Italiano and 22.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.58 for La Serena and 1.25 for Audax Italiano.

Why La Serena

Nothing in the data singles out La Serena.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Audax Italiano can win

Nothing in the data singles out Audax Italiano.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for La Serena, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Audax Italiano, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

La Serena: 41% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Audax Italiano: 47% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

La Serena are the model's most likely outcome at 48.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.3%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	472132	1.58–1.25	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	512029	1.74–1.24	1-0 11%	57%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to win	51.2%	51.5%	49.0%	1.05×	1.94
Audax Italiano to win	29.0%	27.9%	30.0%	0.93×	3.58
Draw	19.9%	19.4%	21.2%	0.92×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena & not both score	25.8%	25.2%	26.8%	0.94×	3.97
La Serena & both teams score	25.3%	25.2%	22.4%	1.12×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.6%	18.0%	16.6%	1.08×	5.57
Audax Italiano & both teams score	14.7%	13.3%	13.4%	0.99×	7.54
Audax Italiano & not both score	14.3%	13.3%	16.8%	0.79×	7.54
Draw & not both score	3.2%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.52

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena & over 1.5	40.4%	40.2%	36.1%	1.11×	2.49
La Serena & over 2.5	32.7%	30.8%	29.3%	1.05×	3.25
La Serena & under 3.5	32.5%	30.8%	34.1%	0.90×	3.25
Audax Italiano & over 1.5	20.8%	21.6%	20.0%	1.08×	4.63
Audax Italiano & under 3.5	20.4%	21.6%	23.4%	0.92×	4.63
La Serena & over 3.5	18.7%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.55
La Serena & under 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.6%	18.0%	16.6%	1.09×	5.56
Audax Italiano & over 2.5	17.0%	18.0%	16.6%	1.09×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	13.9%	0.92×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.4%	12.8%	13.9%	0.92×	7.79
Audax Italiano & under 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	13.7%	0.94×	7.79
La Serena & under 1.5	10.7%	12.8%	13.2%	0.97×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	7.5%	7.9%	7.6%	1.05×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.5%	7.9%	7.6%	1.05×	12.63
Audax Italiano & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.63
Audax Italiano & over 3.5	8.6%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.2%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (1UP)	66.0%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Audax Italiano (1UP)	47.0%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (2UP)	51.2%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Audax Italiano (2UP)	29.0%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to win 2nd half	41.0%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
2nd half drawn	32.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Audax Italiano to win 2nd half	27.0%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.0%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Audax Italiano over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Audax Italiano under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Audax Italiano over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.0%	15.9%	—	—	6.31

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.8%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
La Serena over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
La Serena under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.71
La Serena over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.2%	25.5%	—	—	3.92

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano (+2.5)	88.2%	88.5%	89.5%	0.99×	1.13
Audax Italiano (+1.5)	73.2%	73.7%	76.8%	0.96×	1.36
La Serena (+0.5)	71.0%	73.6%	70.0%	1.05×	1.36
La Serena (-0.5)	51.2%	52.4%	49.0%	1.07×	1.91
Audax Italiano (+0.5)	48.8%	47.6%	51.0%	0.93×	2.10
Audax Italiano (-0.5)	29.0%	26.4%	30.0%	0.88×	3.80
La Serena (-1.5)	26.8%	26.3%	23.2%	1.14×	3.80
La Serena (-2.5)	11.8%	11.5%	10.5%	1.10×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano to concede	82.5%	81.5%	78.5%	1.04×	1.23
Audax Italiano clean sheet	17.5%	18.5%	21.5%	0.86×	5.40

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano to concede in 1st half	52.7%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Audax Italiano clean sheet in 1st half	47.3%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano to concede in 2nd half	63.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Audax Italiano clean sheet in 2nd half	37.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano over 2.5 corners	78.3%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Audax Italiano under 6.5 corners	78.2%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Audax Italiano under 5.5 corners	67.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Audax Italiano over 3.5 corners	62.9%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Audax Italiano under 4.5 corners	53.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Audax Italiano over 4.5 corners	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Audax Italiano under 3.5 corners	37.1%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Audax Italiano over 5.5 corners	33.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Audax Italiano over 6.5 corners	21.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Audax Italiano under 2.5 corners	21.7%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano under 3.5 goals	96.3%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Audax Italiano under 2.5 goals	87.2%	87.8%	88.3%	0.99×	1.14
Audax Italiano over 0.5 goals	70.9%	71.8%	68.5%	1.05×	1.39
Audax Italiano under 1.5 goals	65.0%	68.0%	68.5%	0.99×	1.47
Audax Italiano over 1.5 goals	35.0%	32.0%	31.5%	1.02×	3.12
Audax Italiano under 0.5 goals	29.1%	28.2%	31.5%	0.90×	3.55
Audax Italiano over 2.5 goals	12.8%	12.2%	11.7%	1.04×	8.20
Audax Italiano over 3.5 goals	3.7%	2.5%	2.9%	0.86×	39.78

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano under 1.5 in 1st half	91.2%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Audax Italiano under 0.5 in 1st half	61.0%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Audax Italiano over 0.5 in 1st half	39.0%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Audax Italiano over 1.5 in 1st half	8.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.35

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano scores equally in both	40.7%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Audax Italiano scores more in 2nd half	37.4%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Audax Italiano scores more in 1st half	21.9%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (away no bet)	72.0%	68.4%	69.8%	0.98×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	28.0%	31.6%	30.2%	1.05×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano even goals	54.2%	52.6%	53.7%	0.98×	1.90
Audax Italiano odd goals	45.8%	47.4%	46.3%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.7%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.3%	16.9%	—	—	5.92

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.8%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.11

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.6%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
La Serena to score 2+ in a row	42.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Audax Italiano to score 2+ in a row	25.4%	24.9%	—	—	4.02
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.3%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
La Serena to score 3+ in a row	16.8%	16.1%	—	—	6.20
Audax Italiano to score 3+ in a row	6.8%	5.5%	—	—	18.23

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena corners (+3.5)	84.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Audax Italiano corners (+3.5)	81.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
La Serena corners (+2.5)	77.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Audax Italiano corners (+2.5)	73.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
La Serena corners (+1.5)	68.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Audax Italiano corners (+1.5)	64.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
La Serena corners (-1.5)	35.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Audax Italiano corners (-1.5)	31.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
La Serena corners (-2.5)	26.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Audax Italiano corners (-2.5)	22.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
La Serena corners (-3.5)	18.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Audax Italiano corners (-3.5)	15.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	27.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	63.8%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	32.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	27.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	10.7%	11.5%	13.2%	0.87×	8.72
1-1	9.1%	7.4%	9.3%	0.80×	13.51
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	10.7%	0.69×	13.51
0-1	8.1%	7.4%	10.2%	0.72×	13.51
1-2	6.8%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
2-0	7.7%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.51
2-2	5.9%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
3-1	5.5%	7.4%	4.6%	1.60×	13.51
0-0	3.2%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.30
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
1-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.31
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.31
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.31
3-0	4.5%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.29
3-2	3.4%	1.7%	2.0%	0.88×	58.30
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.32
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.31
4-1	2.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.31
4-2	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.03×	58.32
Any other score	4.1%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (2nd half DNB)	60.3%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Audax Italiano (2nd half DNB)	39.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena leading at HT (DNB)	63.3%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Audax Italiano leading at HT (DNB)	36.7%	33.5%	—	—	2.99

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or Audax Italiano (12)	80.1%	80.6%	78.8%	1.02×	1.24
La Serena or draw (1X)	71.0%	72.1%	70.0%	1.03×	1.39
Audax Italiano or draw (X2)	48.8%	48.5%	51.0%	0.95×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or draw at HT	77.9%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Audax Italiano or draw at HT	62.0%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
La Serena or Audax Italiano at HT	60.1%	60.9%	—	—	1.64

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or draw (1UP)	71.0%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Audax Italiano or draw (1UP)	48.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or draw in 2nd half	73.0%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
La Serena or Audax Italiano in 2nd half	68.0%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Audax Italiano or draw in 2nd half	59.0%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.2%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.8%	38.7%	—	—	2.58

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (DNB)	63.8%	62.7%	62.0%	1.01×	1.60
Audax Italiano (DNB)	36.2%	37.3%	38.0%	0.98×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to score first	56.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Audax Italiano to score first	40.1%	41.6%	—	—	2.41
No goal scored	3.2%	4.4%	—	—	22.94

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.7%	55.0%	52.0%	1.06×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.3%	45.0%	48.0%	0.94×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.5%	44.3%	42.9%	1.03×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	33.7%	34.6%	38.0%	0.91×	2.89
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	10.2%	0.81×	12.06
Both score & under 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	9.3%	0.89×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.8%	82.6%	84.6%	0.98×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.2%	17.4%	15.4%	1.13×	5.76

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.7%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.2%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	25.6%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
Both score 1st half only	13.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	6.8%	6.8%	—	—	14.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.8%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.2%	18.9%	—	—	5.28

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	42.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.1%	42.2%	43.4%	0.97×	2.37
4-6 goals	31.5%	30.7%	26.8%	1.15×	3.26
0-1 goals	22.1%	22.9%	27.8%	0.82×	4.36
7+ goals	3.2%	1.8%	2.4%	0.76×	54.24

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.9%	37.3%	0.96×	2.79
Audax Italiano to score exactly 0	29.1%	27.5%	31.5%	0.87×	3.64
Audax Italiano to score exactly 2	22.2%	22.3%	20.0%	1.11×	4.49
Audax Italiano to score 3+	12.8%	12.9%	11.7%	1.10×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to score exactly 1	30.5%	32.6%	31.7%	1.03×	3.07
La Serena to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.6%	26.3%	1.01×	3.77
La Serena to score 3+	25.4%	26.6%	21.0%	1.27×	3.77
La Serena to score exactly 0	17.5%	18.8%	21.5%	0.88×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.9%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
La Serena leading at HT	38.0%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Audax Italiano leading at HT	22.1%	20.4%	—	—	4.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena -1: 2	48.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
La Serena -1: 1	26.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
La Serena -1: X	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano (0:1)	48.8%	46.1%	51.0%	0.90×	2.17
La Serena (0:1)	26.8%	27.0%	23.2%	1.17×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	24.4%	24.2%	26.1%	0.93×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano (0:2)	73.2%	75.7%	76.8%	0.98×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.0%	15.2%	12.9%	1.18×	6.56
La Serena (0:2)	11.8%	11.0%	10.5%	1.05×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano (0:3)	88.2%	90.6%	89.5%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.5%	5.8%	5.4%	1.08×	17.24
La Serena (0:3)	4.3%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.95

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano (0:4)	95.7%	98.1%	94.6%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.0%	1.2%	4.1%	0.30×	81.64
La Serena (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	1.5%	0.84×	81.82

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (1:0)	71.0%	72.4%	70.0%	1.03×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.8%	17.1%	20.0%	0.86×	5.85
Audax Italiano (1:0)	11.2%	12.7%	10.2%	1.24×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (2:0)	88.8%	88.5%	89.8%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.5%	6.4%	6.3%	1.01×	15.66
Audax Italiano (2:0)	3.6%	2.3%	4.1%	0.55×	43.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.4%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	28.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	20.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to concede	70.9%	73.0%	68.5%	1.06×	1.37
La Serena clean sheet	29.1%	27.0%	31.5%	0.86×	3.70

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena clean sheet in 1st half	61.0%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
La Serena to concede in 1st half	39.0%	36.9%	—	—	2.71

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to concede in 2nd half	52.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
La Serena clean sheet in 2nd half	47.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena over 2.5 corners	80.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
La Serena under 6.5 corners	75.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
La Serena over 3.5 corners	65.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
La Serena under 5.5 corners	64.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
La Serena over 4.5 corners	50.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
La Serena under 4.5 corners	50.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
La Serena over 5.5 corners	35.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
La Serena under 3.5 corners	34.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
La Serena over 6.5 corners	24.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
La Serena under 2.5 corners	19.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 3.5 goals	90.0%	92.2%	91.0%	1.01×	1.09
La Serena over 0.5 goals	82.5%	82.2%	78.5%	1.05×	1.22
La Serena under 2.5 goals	74.6%	74.2%	79.0%	0.94×	1.35
La Serena over 1.5 goals	52.0%	53.2%	47.1%	1.13×	1.88
La Serena under 1.5 goals	48.0%	46.8%	52.9%	0.88×	2.14
La Serena over 2.5 goals	25.4%	25.8%	21.0%	1.23×	3.88
La Serena under 0.5 goals	17.5%	17.8%	21.5%	0.83×	5.62
La Serena over 3.5 goals	10.0%	7.8%	9.0%	0.86×	12.81

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 1.5 in 1st half	82.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
La Serena over 0.5 in 1st half	52.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
La Serena under 0.5 in 1st half	47.3%	49.4%	—	—	2.03
La Serena over 1.5 in 1st half	17.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena scores more in 2nd half	40.1%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
La Serena scores equally in both	33.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
La Serena scores more in 1st half	26.7%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano (home no bet)	59.3%	56.4%	58.6%	0.96×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.7%	43.6%	41.4%	1.05×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena even goals	51.5%	50.8%	54.4%	0.93×	1.97
La Serena odd goals	48.5%	49.3%	45.6%	1.08×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.5%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 1-0	21.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-1	14.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	10.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	8.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
Any other HT score	5.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.58
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 0-2	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena at HT / La Serena at FT	30.9%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Draw at HT / La Serena at FT	17.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Audax Italiano at HT / Audax Italiano at FT	15.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Audax Italiano at FT	11.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
La Serena at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Audax Italiano at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Audax Italiano at HT / La Serena at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
La Serena at HT / Audax Italiano at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to score last	56.5%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Audax Italiano to score last	40.3%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
No goal scored	3.2%	4.4%	—	—	22.94

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.8%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
La Serena to lead by 1 at any time	66.0%	69.2%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.8%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Audax Italiano to lead by 1 at any time	47.0%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
La Serena to lead by 2 at any time	34.0%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Audax Italiano to lead by 2 at any time	17.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
La Serena to lead by 3 at any time	14.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.40
Audax Italiano to lead by 3 at any time	5.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.14

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena most corners	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Audax Italiano most corners	42.3%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.6%	87.4%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.7%	78.7%	81.2%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.7%	72.3%	70.0%	1.03×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.7%	68.8%	64.4%	1.07×	1.45
1-3 goals	62.0%	63.3%	66.3%	0.95×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.8%	59.1%	58.3%	1.01×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.0%	53.2%	50.7%	1.05×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.0%	48.4%	45.1%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	43.1%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.29
1-2 goals	39.6%	39.2%	42.4%	0.92×	2.55
3-4 goals	39.1%	39.2%	39.0%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.5%	35.2%	26.8%	1.31×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.6%	30.2%	21.2%	1.42×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.9%	14.8%	12.0%	1.24×	6.75
7+ goals	3.2%	2.6%	2.4%	1.05×	39.12

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena never behind	49.7%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Audax Italiano never behind	30.8%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	46.4%	50.9%	44.9%	1.13×	1.97
Odd number of goals	53.6%	49.1%	55.1%	0.89×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.5%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.5%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.8%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.8%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.9%	82.3%	85.9%	0.96×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.9%	77.3%	72.2%	1.07×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	65.2%	66.3%	71.0%	0.93×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	57.2%	58.6%	52.9%	1.11×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.8%	41.4%	47.1%	0.88×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	34.8%	33.7%	29.0%	1.16×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.1%	22.7%	27.8%	0.82×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	18.1%	17.7%	14.1%	1.25×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.2%	7.7%	8.0%	0.96×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	3.2%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.6%	97.2%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.9%	92.4%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.3%	75.9%	83.4%	0.91×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.1%	72.4%	65.6%	1.10×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.2%	55.8%	61.9%	0.90×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.8%	44.2%	38.1%	1.16×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.9%	27.6%	34.4%	0.80×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.7%	24.1%	16.6%	1.45×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.1%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.4%	2.8%	2.6%	1.09×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.0%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.5%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.0%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.0%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.5%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.11

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.0%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.8%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.2%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.0%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano not to score in both halves	79.6%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
La Serena not to score in both halves	66.8%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
La Serena to score in both halves	33.2%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Audax Italiano to score in both halves	20.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.66

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.7%	58.6%	52.0%	1.13×	1.71
Only La Serena scores	25.8%	26.1%	26.8%	0.97×	3.84
Only Audax Italiano scores	14.3%	11.0%	16.8%	0.66×	9.06
Neither team scores	3.2%	4.6%	4.9%	0.95×	21.59

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.7%	22.6%	19.5%	1.16×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.8%	17.5%	23.2%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	16.7%	17.5%	15.1%	1.15×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.9%	7.6%	6.3%	1.20×	13.13
6 or more goals	8.2%	7.6%	8.0%	0.95×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	3.2%	4.5%	4.9%	0.92×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	28.5%	28.6%	—	—	3.49
2 goals in 1st half	22.0%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.20

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	31.9%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	17.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano not to win both halves	94.3%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
La Serena not to win both halves	84.8%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
La Serena to win both halves	15.2%	16.4%	—	—	6.09
Audax Italiano to win both halves	5.7%	5.8%	—	—	17.24

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to win either half	63.8%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Audax Italiano to win neither half	56.6%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Audax Italiano to win either half	43.4%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
La Serena to win neither half	36.2%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Audax Italiano not to win to nil	85.7%	88.1%	83.2%	1.06×	1.14
La Serena not to win to nil	74.2%	75.3%	73.2%	1.03×	1.33
La Serena to win to nil	25.8%	24.7%	26.8%	0.92×	4.05
Audax Italiano to win to nil	14.3%	11.9%	16.8%	0.71×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena by 1	24.4%	24.1%	26.1%	0.92×	4.15
Draw	19.9%	17.1%	21.2%	0.80×	5.86
Audax Italiano by 1	17.8%	17.1%	20.0%	0.85×	5.87
La Serena by 2	15.0%	17.0%	12.9%	1.32×	5.87
La Serena by 3+	11.8%	11.8%	10.5%	1.12×	8.51
Audax Italiano by 2	7.5%	7.2%	6.3%	1.13×	13.91
Audax Italiano by 3+	3.6%	2.7%	4.1%	0.65×	36.86