La Serena v Palestino — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

La Serena

20:00 UTC

Palestino

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 297h before kick-off

La Serena win

36.3%

model 37.1%

Draw

21.9%

model 20.5%

Palestino win

41.8%

model 42.4%

362242

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 9.6%
1-1 9.3%
1-0 9.0%
1-2 8.7%
2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.9%	Under 2.5	42.1%
BTTS yes	58.6%	BTTS no	41.4%
La Serena 1+	76.4%	La Serena 2+	42.4%
Palestino 1+	79.1%	Palestino 2+	46.4%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.57. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

84/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Palestino (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 51%

63.7% fair odds 1.57

moderate signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Palestino (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 77%

83.7% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Palestino carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1463.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Palestino have an estimated 41.8% win probability, against 36.3% for La Serena and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.45 for La Serena and 1.56 for Palestino.

Why La Serena

Nothing in the data singles out La Serena.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.45 to 1.56. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Palestino can win

Palestino carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1463. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for La Serena, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Palestino, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

La Serena: 41% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Palestino: 61% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Palestino are the model's most likely outcome at 41.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 9.6%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	372042	1.45–1.57	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392140	1.46–1.48	0-1 10%	56%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino to win	39.9%	36.4%	30.0%	1.21×	2.75
La Serena to win	39.3%	36.4%	49.0%	0.74×	2.75
Draw	20.7%	24.5%	21.2%	1.15×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino & both teams score	20.1%	21.8%	13.4%	1.62×	4.59
La Serena & both teams score	19.9%	18.0%	22.4%	0.80×	5.56
La Serena & not both score	19.5%	18.0%	26.8%	0.67×	5.56
Palestino & not both score	19.8%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	17.4%	18.0%	16.6%	1.08×	5.57
Draw & not both score	3.4%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.52

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino & over 1.5	30.2%	30.7%	20.0%	1.54×	3.25
La Serena & over 1.5	29.7%	26.1%	36.1%	0.72×	3.84
Palestino & under 3.5	26.8%	26.1%	23.4%	1.11×	3.84
La Serena & under 3.5	26.5%	26.1%	34.1%	0.76×	3.84
La Serena & over 2.5	24.0%	21.6%	29.3%	0.74×	4.63
Palestino & over 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	16.6%	1.30×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	17.4%	18.0%	16.6%	1.09×	5.56
Palestino & under 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	13.7%	1.32×	5.56
La Serena & under 2.5	15.3%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
La Serena & over 3.5	12.9%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	12.9%	12.8%	13.9%	0.92×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.9%	12.8%	13.9%	0.92×	7.79
Palestino & over 3.5	13.1%	12.8%	6.8%	1.88×	7.79
La Serena & under 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.63
Palestino & under 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	7.6%	1.05×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.9%	7.9%	7.6%	1.05×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.4%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (1UP)	56.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
La Serena (1UP)	56.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (2UP)	39.9%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
La Serena (2UP)	39.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.67

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino to win 2nd half	35.2%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
2nd half drawn	32.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
La Serena to win 2nd half	32.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.8%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Palestino over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.8%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Palestino under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Palestino over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.2%	20.5%	—	—	4.88

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.7%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
La Serena over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
La Serena under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
La Serena over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.3%	24.6%	—	—	4.06

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (+2.5)	93.3%	92.1%	89.5%	1.03×	1.09
Palestino (+1.5)	82.3%	82.6%	76.8%	1.07×	1.21
Palestino (+0.5)	60.7%	62.9%	51.0%	1.23×	1.59
La Serena (+0.5)	60.1%	62.9%	70.0%	0.90×	1.59
Palestino (-0.5)	39.9%	37.1%	30.0%	1.24×	2.70
La Serena (-0.5)	39.3%	37.1%	49.0%	0.76×	2.70
La Serena (-1.5)	17.7%	17.4%	23.2%	0.75×	5.74
La Serena (-2.5)	6.7%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino to concede	76.8%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
Palestino clean sheet	23.2%	21.3%	21.5%	0.99×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino clean sheet in 1st half	53.3%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Palestino to concede in 1st half	46.7%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino to concede in 2nd half	56.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Palestino clean sheet in 2nd half	43.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino over 2.5 corners	84.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Palestino over 3.5 corners	71.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Palestino under 6.5 corners	69.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Palestino under 5.5 corners	57.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Palestino over 4.5 corners	56.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Palestino under 4.5 corners	43.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Palestino over 5.5 corners	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Palestino over 6.5 corners	30.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Palestino under 3.5 corners	29.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Palestino under 2.5 corners	16.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino under 3.5 goals	93.7%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Palestino under 2.5 goals	81.5%	81.5%	88.3%	0.92×	1.23
Palestino over 0.5 goals	77.1%	76.2%	68.5%	1.11×	1.31
Palestino under 1.5 goals	56.6%	59.4%	68.5%	0.87×	1.68
Palestino over 1.5 goals	43.4%	40.6%	31.5%	1.29×	2.46
Palestino under 0.5 goals	22.9%	23.8%	31.5%	0.76×	4.21
Palestino over 2.5 goals	18.5%	18.5%	11.7%	1.58×	5.41
Palestino over 3.5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	2.9%	2.61×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino under 1.5 in 1st half	88.1%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Palestino under 0.5 in 1st half	55.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Palestino over 0.5 in 1st half	44.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Palestino over 1.5 in 1st half	11.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.33

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino scores more in 2nd half	40.4%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Palestino scores equally in both	36.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Palestino scores more in 1st half	23.1%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (away no bet)	65.5%	66.4%	69.8%	0.95×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	34.5%	33.6%	30.2%	1.11×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino even goals	52.6%	52.6%	53.7%	0.98×	1.90
Palestino odd goals	47.4%	47.4%	46.3%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.3%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.7%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.3%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Palestino to score 2+ in a row	33.8%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
La Serena to score 2+ in a row	33.3%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.5%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Palestino to score 3+ in a row	11.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
La Serena to score 3+ in a row	10.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.26

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino corners (+3.5)	89.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Palestino corners (+2.5)	83.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Palestino corners (+1.5)	76.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
La Serena corners (+3.5)	75.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
La Serena corners (+2.5)	65.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
La Serena corners (+1.5)	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Palestino corners (-1.5)	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Palestino corners (-2.5)	34.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Palestino corners (-3.5)	25.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
La Serena corners (-1.5)	24.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
La Serena corners (-2.5)	16.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
La Serena corners (-3.5)	10.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	63.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	32.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	27.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	9.7%	7.4%	10.2%	0.72×	13.51
1-0	9.7%	7.4%	13.2%	0.56×	13.51
1-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.3%	0.80×	13.51
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	10.7%	0.69×	13.51
0-2	5.8%	7.4%	3.7%	2.02×	13.51
2-0	5.7%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.51
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
0-0	3.4%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.30
0-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.31
1-3	4.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.30
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.31
2-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.31
3-0	2.8%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.30
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.88×	58.30
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.31
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.31
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.03×	58.32
Any other score	3.4%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (2nd half DNB)	52.1%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
La Serena (2nd half DNB)	47.9%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena leading at HT (DNB)	52.1%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Palestino leading at HT (DNB)	47.9%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or Palestino (12)	79.3%	75.5%	78.8%	0.96×	1.32
Palestino or draw (X2)	60.7%	63.6%	51.0%	1.25×	1.57
La Serena or draw (1X)	60.1%	63.6%	70.0%	0.91×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or draw at HT	71.7%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Palestino or draw at HT	69.2%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
La Serena or Palestino at HT	59.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino or draw (1UP)	60.7%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
La Serena or draw (1UP)	60.1%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino or draw in 2nd half	67.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
La Serena or Palestino in 2nd half	67.5%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
La Serena or draw in 2nd half	64.8%	63.6%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.3%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.7%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (DNB)	50.4%	50.8%	38.0%	1.34×	1.97
La Serena (DNB)	49.6%	49.2%	62.0%	0.79×	2.03

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino to score first	48.5%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
La Serena to score first	48.1%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
No goal scored	3.4%	4.4%	—	—	22.92

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.4%	55.0%	52.0%	1.06×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.6%	45.0%	48.0%	0.94×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.9%	44.3%	42.9%	1.03×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	34.2%	34.6%	38.0%	0.91×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	9.5%	8.3%	9.3%	0.89×	12.06
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.3%	10.2%	0.81×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.3%	82.6%	84.6%	0.98×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.7%	17.4%	15.4%	1.13×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.4%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	25.7%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
Both score 1st half only	13.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	6.9%	6.8%	—	—	14.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.28

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.9%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	43.1%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.3%	42.2%	43.4%	0.97×	2.37
4-6 goals	30.9%	30.7%	26.8%	1.15×	3.26
0-1 goals	22.8%	22.9%	27.8%	0.82×	4.36
7+ goals	3.0%	1.8%	2.4%	0.76×	54.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino to score exactly 1	33.7%	33.8%	37.3%	0.91×	2.96
Palestino to score exactly 2	24.9%	22.3%	20.0%	1.11×	4.49
Palestino to score exactly 0	22.9%	22.3%	31.5%	0.71×	4.49
Palestino to score 3+	18.5%	19.5%	11.7%	1.67×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to score exactly 1	33.9%	32.6%	31.7%	1.03×	3.07
La Serena to score exactly 2	24.8%	23.3%	26.3%	0.88×	4.29
La Serena to score exactly 0	23.2%	23.3%	21.5%	1.09×	4.29
La Serena to score 3+	18.2%	18.8%	21.0%	0.90×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
La Serena leading at HT	30.8%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Palestino leading at HT	28.3%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino -1: 1	60.1%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Palestino -1: X	21.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Palestino -1: 2	18.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (0:1)	60.7%	61.4%	51.0%	1.20×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	21.6%	24.2%	26.1%	0.93×	4.13
La Serena (0:1)	17.7%	17.8%	23.2%	0.77×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (0:2)	82.3%	83.0%	76.8%	1.08×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.0%	11.0%	12.9%	0.85×	9.11
La Serena (0:2)	6.7%	7.7%	10.5%	0.73×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (0:3)	93.3%	92.7%	89.5%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.94
La Serena (0:3)	2.1%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (0:4)	97.9%	98.1%	94.6%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	4.1%	0.29×	81.80
La Serena (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	81.91

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (1:0)	60.1%	65.2%	70.0%	0.93×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	21.8%	21.7%	20.0%	1.08×	4.61
Palestino (1:0)	18.1%	17.1%	10.2%	1.67×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (2:0)	81.9%	84.6%	89.8%	0.94×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.2%	10.3%	6.3%	1.62×	9.73
Palestino (2:0)	6.9%	6.4%	4.1%	1.54×	15.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.7%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	28.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	20.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to concede	77.1%	76.1%	68.5%	1.11×	1.32
La Serena clean sheet	22.9%	23.9%	31.5%	0.76×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena clean sheet in 1st half	55.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
La Serena to concede in 1st half	44.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to concede in 2nd half	58.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
La Serena clean sheet in 2nd half	41.2%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 6.5 corners	83.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
La Serena over 2.5 corners	73.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
La Serena under 5.5 corners	73.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
La Serena under 4.5 corners	59.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
La Serena over 3.5 corners	56.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
La Serena under 3.5 corners	43.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
La Serena over 4.5 corners	40.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
La Serena over 5.5 corners	26.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
La Serena under 2.5 corners	26.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
La Serena over 6.5 corners	16.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 3.5 goals	93.9%	92.2%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
La Serena under 2.5 goals	81.8%	82.2%	79.0%	1.04×	1.22
La Serena over 0.5 goals	76.8%	77.8%	78.5%	0.99×	1.29
La Serena under 1.5 goals	57.0%	58.7%	52.9%	1.11×	1.71
La Serena over 1.5 goals	43.0%	41.4%	47.1%	0.88×	2.42
La Serena under 0.5 goals	23.2%	22.2%	21.5%	1.04×	4.50
La Serena over 2.5 goals	18.2%	17.8%	21.0%	0.85×	5.62
La Serena over 3.5 goals	6.1%	7.8%	9.0%	0.86×	12.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 1.5 in 1st half	86.8%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
La Serena under 0.5 in 1st half	53.3%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
La Serena over 0.5 in 1st half	46.7%	49.3%	—	—	2.03
La Serena over 1.5 in 1st half	13.2%	9.9%	—	—	10.05

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena scores more in 2nd half	37.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
La Serena scores equally in both	37.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
La Serena scores more in 1st half	25.5%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino (home no bet)	65.8%	64.1%	58.6%	1.09×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	34.2%	35.9%	41.4%	0.87×	2.79

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena even goals	52.7%	50.8%	54.4%	0.93×	1.97
La Serena odd goals	47.3%	49.2%	45.6%	1.08×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 1-0	18.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 0-1	17.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	10.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	5.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 0-2	5.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.58
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.35

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena at HT / La Serena at FT	22.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Palestino at HT / Palestino at FT	21.5%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Palestino at FT	15.5%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / La Serena at FT	14.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
La Serena at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.55
Palestino at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
La Serena at HT / Palestino at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Palestino at HT / La Serena at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino to score last	48.5%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
La Serena to score last	48.1%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
No goal scored	3.4%	4.4%	—	—	22.92

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.6%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Palestino to lead by 1 at any time	56.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
La Serena to lead by 1 at any time	56.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.1%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Palestino to lead by 2 at any time	24.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
La Serena to lead by 2 at any time	24.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Palestino to lead by 3 at any time	9.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.97
La Serena to lead by 3 at any time	8.8%	6.7%	—	—	14.98

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino most corners	55.8%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
La Serena most corners	33.5%	34.4%	—	—	2.90
Corners level	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.8%	87.4%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.2%	78.7%	81.2%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.2%	72.3%	70.0%	1.03×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.4%	68.8%	64.4%	1.07×	1.45
1-3 goals	62.7%	63.3%	66.3%	0.95×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.8%	59.1%	58.3%	1.01×	1.69
3-6 goals	53.3%	53.2%	50.7%	1.05×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.5%	48.4%	45.1%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	43.3%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.29
1-2 goals	40.3%	43.6%	42.4%	1.03×	2.29
3-4 goals	38.8%	39.2%	39.0%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.9%	35.2%	26.8%	1.31×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.1%	30.2%	21.2%	1.42×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.4%	14.8%	12.0%	1.24×	6.75
7+ goals	3.0%	2.6%	2.4%	1.05×	39.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino never behind	40.3%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
La Serena never behind	39.8%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	46.3%	50.9%	44.9%	1.13×	1.97
Odd number of goals	53.7%	49.1%	55.1%	0.89×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.6%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.5%	82.3%	85.9%	0.96×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.2%	77.3%	72.2%	1.07×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	66.1%	66.3%	71.0%	0.93×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	56.3%	58.6%	52.9%	1.11×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	43.7%	41.4%	47.1%	0.88×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	33.9%	33.7%	29.0%	1.16×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.8%	22.7%	27.8%	0.82×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	17.5%	17.7%	14.1%	1.25×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	8.0%	0.96×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	3.4%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.8%	97.2%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.4%	92.4%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.1%	75.9%	83.4%	0.91×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.2%	72.3%	65.6%	1.10×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.3%	55.8%	61.9%	0.90×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.7%	44.2%	38.1%	1.16×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	28.8%	27.7%	34.4%	0.80×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.9%	24.1%	16.6%	1.45×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.6%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.2%	2.8%	2.6%	1.09×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.5%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.9%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.13

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.7%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	20.5%	—	—	4.88
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.3%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino not to score in both halves	73.8%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
La Serena not to score in both halves	73.6%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
La Serena to score in both halves	26.4%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Palestino to score in both halves	26.2%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.4%	58.6%	52.0%	1.13×	1.71
Only Palestino scores	19.8%	16.1%	16.8%	0.95×	6.23
Only La Serena scores	19.5%	16.1%	26.8%	0.60×	6.23
Neither team scores	3.4%	4.6%	4.9%	0.95×	21.59

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.9%	22.6%	19.5%	1.16×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.4%	17.5%	23.2%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	16.5%	17.5%	15.1%	1.15×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.7%	7.6%	6.3%	1.20×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.8%	7.6%	8.0%	0.95×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	3.4%	4.5%	4.9%	0.92×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.2%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
2 goals in 1st half	21.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.21

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.6%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	32.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	17.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena not to win both halves	90.4%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Palestino not to win both halves	90.3%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Palestino to win both halves	9.7%	5.9%	—	—	16.96
La Serena to win both halves	9.6%	5.9%	—	—	16.96

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino to win either half	53.9%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
La Serena to win either half	53.5%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
La Serena to win neither half	46.6%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Palestino to win neither half	46.1%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena not to win to nil	80.5%	83.1%	73.2%	1.14×	1.20
Palestino not to win to nil	80.2%	83.1%	83.2%	1.00×	1.20
Palestino to win to nil	19.8%	16.9%	16.8%	1.01×	5.91
La Serena to win to nil	19.5%	16.9%	26.8%	0.63×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palestino by 1	21.8%	24.1%	20.0%	1.21×	4.15
La Serena by 1	21.6%	24.1%	26.1%	0.92×	4.15
Draw	20.7%	24.1%	21.2%	1.14×	4.15
Palestino by 2	11.2%	11.8%	6.3%	1.85×	8.51
La Serena by 2	11.0%	11.8%	12.9%	0.91×	8.51
La Serena by 3+	6.7%	7.2%	10.5%	0.69×	13.91
Palestino by 3+	6.9%	7.2%	4.1%	1.73×	13.91