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Las Palmas v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 October 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

0–1
0.96 – 0.81 xG
Shots
24 – 8
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.96 – +0.18
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.50.81.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Borja Iglesias 27' — goal
Las Palmas 0.96 xGCelta Vigo 0.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Fran Beltrán 2' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Dário Essugo 5' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Fabio Silva 7' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Ilaix Moriba 21' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Borja Iglesias 27' — Goal (0.47 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 34' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Oliver McBurnie 39' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Javi Muñoz 40' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 42' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Borja Iglesias 43' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Fabio Silva 45' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Borja Iglesias 46' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Óscar Mingueza 46' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Adnan Januzaj 48' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Fabio Silva 51' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 59' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Alberto Moleiro 67' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Dário Essugo 67' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Tasos Douvikas 69' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Óscar Mingueza 70' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Direct Freekick)Adnan Januzaj 73' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Adnan Januzaj 73' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)José Campaña 75' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Benito Ramírez 76' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Manu Fuster 76' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 77' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 86' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 88' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Dário Essugo 89' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Juan Herzog 89' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Juan Herzog 93' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jaime Mata 94' — Shot On Post (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Las Palmas attacking right Celta Vigo attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Celta Vigo Fran Beltrán 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
5' Las Palmas Dário Essugo 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
7' Las Palmas Fabio Silva 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Adnan Januzaj
21' Celta Vigo Ilaix Moriba 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Marcos Alonso
27' Celta Vigo Borja Iglesias 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Goal Óscar Mingueza
34' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
39' Las Palmas Oliver McBurnie 0.01 Open Play Missed Shot Javi Muñoz
40' Las Palmas Javi Muñoz 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Oliver McBurnie
42' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Oliver McBurnie
43' Celta Vigo Borja Iglesias 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Williot Swedberg
45' Las Palmas Fabio Silva 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Adnan Januzaj
46' Celta Vigo Borja Iglesias 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Óscar Mingueza
46' Celta Vigo Óscar Mingueza 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
48' Las Palmas Adnan Januzaj 0.07 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
51' Las Palmas Fabio Silva 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alberto Moleiro
59' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Adnan Januzaj
67' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Dário Essugo
67' Las Palmas Dário Essugo 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Manu Fuster
69' Celta Vigo Tasos Douvikas 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
70' Celta Vigo Óscar Mingueza 0.02 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
73' Las Palmas Adnan Januzaj 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Manu Fuster
73' Las Palmas Adnan Januzaj 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alberto Moleiro
75' Las Palmas José Campaña 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
76' Las Palmas Benito Ramírez 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
76' Las Palmas Manu Fuster 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
77' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Manu Fuster
86' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Benito Ramírez
88' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Benito Ramírez
89' Las Palmas Dário Essugo 0.04 From Corner Blocked Shot Manu Fuster
89' Las Palmas Juan Herzog 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot
93' Las Palmas Juan Herzog 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Manu Fuster
94' Las Palmas Jaime Mata 0.03 Open Play Shot On Post

Players

Celta Vigo

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Óscar Mingueza DMR 90 0 1 2 2 0.09 0.57 0.63
Fran Beltrán MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.47
Carl Starfelt DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.47
Vicente Guaita GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marcos Alonso DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.58
Hugo Álvarez DML 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Borja Iglesias FW 66 1 0 3 0 0.57 0.00 0.57
Williot Swedberg FWL 66 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.11
Javier Manquillo DC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.47
Iago Aspas FWR 60 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Ilaix Moriba MC 58 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.58
Javier Rodríguez Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tasos Douvikas Sub 24 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
Pablo Durán Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Franco Cervi Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Domínguez Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Las Palmas

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Alberto Moleiro AML 90 0 0 7 2 0.24 0.09 0.33
Adnan Januzaj AMR 90 0 0 3 3 0.16 0.17 0.28
Dário Essugo DMC 90 0 0 3 1 0.11 0.03 0.37
Juan Herzog DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.20
Viti Rozada DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Dinko Horkas GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Álex Suárez DC 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Fabio Silva AMC 71 0 0 3 0 0.18 0.00 0.18
Oliver McBurnie FW 71 0 0 1 2 0.01 0.05 0.16
Javi Muñoz DMC 62 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.01 0.05
Álex Muñoz DL 62 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Manu Fuster Sub 28 0 0 1 5 0.03 0.20 0.28
Benito Ramírez Sub 28 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.10 0.27
Jaime Mata Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Marc Cardona Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
José Campaña Sub 11 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.18
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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