Las Palmas v RC Celta Fortuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 December 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 10.9%
- 1-1 10.8%
- 2-1 9.8%
- 2-0 9.4%
- 0-1 6.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | Under 2.5 | 46.5% |
| BTTS yes | 53.5% | BTTS no | 46.5% |
| Las Palmas 1+ | 83.1% | Las Palmas 2+ | 53.0% |
| RC Celta Fortuna 1+ | 64.7% | RC Celta Fortuna 2+ | 27.9% |
Expected goals 1.78 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Las Palmas carry the stronger rating, 1574 Elo against 1501.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- RC Celta Fortuna have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Las Palmas have an estimated 54.9% win probability, against 22.8% for the draw and 22.3% for RC Celta Fortuna. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.78 for Las Palmas and 1.04 for RC Celta Fortuna.
Why Las Palmas
Las Palmas carry the stronger rating, 1574 Elo against 1501. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.8%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why RC Celta Fortuna can win
Nothing in the data singles out RC Celta Fortuna.
Key players
Las Palmas's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fabio Silva (0.41), Oliver McBurnie (0.26), Alberto Moleiro (0.21).
Availability
3 of Las Palmas's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for RC Celta Fortuna, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Las Palmas: 56% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces. RC Celta Fortuna: 42% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 15.3 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Las Palmas are the model's most likely outcome at 54.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 10.9%. Confidence 43/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.78–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.59–1.10 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.