Las Palmas v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 13
On target
5 – 8
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.24
Goals − xG
-0.75 – +0.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Las Palmas win
37.3%
Draw
28.6%
Real Sociedad win
34.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWWLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.3 xG
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.18–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Las Palmas 1.75 xGReal Sociedad 2.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Las Palmas attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Las Palmas |
Fabio Silva | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 2' |
Las Palmas |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sandro Ramírez |
| 4' |
 Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 4' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 6' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.24 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 9' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Javier López |
| 11' |
Las Palmas |
Sandro Ramírez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oliver McBurnie |
| 27' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 31' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 33' |
Las Palmas |
Sandro Ramírez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Las Palmas |
Javi Muñoz | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Las Palmas |
Juan Herzog | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Sandro Ramírez |
| 41' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 42' |
Las Palmas |
Dário Essugo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Silva |
| 44' |
Las Palmas |
Fabio Silva | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Javi Muñoz |
| 45' |
Las Palmas |
Fabio Silva | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Scott McKenna |
| 45' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aritz Elustondo |
| 54' |
Las Palmas |
Javi Muñoz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Mármol |
| 55' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.69 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 59' |
Las Palmas |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.90 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fabio Silva |
| 66' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 67' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 73' |
Las Palmas |
Adnan Januzaj | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marvin Park |
| 78' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 89' |
Las Palmas |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marvin Park |
| 93' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Takefusa Kubo |
Players
Las Palmas
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver McBurnie FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.02 | 1.12 |
| Fabio Silva FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.91 | 1.49 |
| Mika Mármol DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.15 |
| Scott McKenna DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Viti Rozada DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dinko Horkas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javi Muñoz MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Herzog DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Dário Essugo MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Sandro Ramírez MR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Marvin Park Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| Adnan Januzaj Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| José Campaña Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Cardona Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manu Fuster Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Gómez MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.69 | 0.08 | 1.29 |
| Pablo Marín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.26 | 0.94 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1.41 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aritz Elustondo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.62 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1.15 |
| Jon Martín Sub | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 1.30 |
| Ander Barrenetxea ML | 65 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| Javier López DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Orri Óskarsson Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Takefusa Kubo Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.73 | 0.99 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Sucic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |