Las Palmas v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 10
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
1.04 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.19 – +1.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Las Palmas win
31.3%
Draw
24.1%
Valencia win
44.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWWLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.3 xG
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–1.52 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Las Palmas 1.81 xGValencia 1.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Las Palmas attacking right
Valencia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Valencia |
Rafa Mir | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pepelu |
| 15' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitri Foulquier |
| 21' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 28' |
 Las Palmas |
Sandro Ramírez | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Las Palmas |
Álex Muñoz | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sandro Ramírez |
| 40' |
Valencia |
Rafa Mir | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Las Palmas |
Stefan Bajcetic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sandro Ramírez |
| 45' |
Valencia |
Rafa Mir | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diego López |
| 46' |
Las Palmas |
Sandro Ramírez | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 53' |
Las Palmas |
Mika Mármol | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Ramírez |
| 57' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.62 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 66' |
Las Palmas |
Javi Muñoz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 70' |
Valencia |
Rafa Mir | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 74' |
Las Palmas |
Álex Suárez | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 79' |
Las Palmas |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Las Palmas |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | José Campaña |
| 86' |
Las Palmas |
Jaime Mata | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marvin Park |
| 86' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | André Almeida |
| 88' |
Las Palmas |
Jaime Mata | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 91' |
Las Palmas |
Manu Fuster | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adnan Januzaj |
| 91' |
Valencia |
Fran Pérez | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Umar Sadiq |
| 95' |
Las Palmas |
Jaime Mata | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Manu Fuster |
| 96' |
Las Palmas |
Manu Fuster | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Las Palmas |
Marvin Park | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Las Palmas |
Álex Suárez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 98' |
Valencia |
Jesús Vázquez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Las Palmas
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Suárez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Oliver McBurnie FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Moleiro AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Mika Mármol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Viti Rozada DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Dinko Horkas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Javi Muñoz AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Stefan Bajcetic DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Álex Muñoz DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Ramírez AML | 62 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.78 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| Dário Essugo DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manu Fuster Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Marvin Park Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| Adnan Januzaj Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.59 |
| Jaime Mata Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| José Campaña Sub | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Guerra MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dimitri Foulquier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Cristhian Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pepelu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| Diego López ML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Luis Rioja MR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 77 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Rafa Mir FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| José Gayá DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesús Vázquez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| André Almeida Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Yarek Gasiorowski Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |