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Las Palmas v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 8 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–2
1.91 – 1.26 xG
Shots
20 – 9
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
16 – 7
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.63 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-0.94 – +0.74
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.11.62.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Álex Baena 52' — goalAyoze Pérez 65' — goalManu Fuster 83' — goal
Las Palmas 1.94 xGVillarreal 1.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Yeremi Pino 12' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Oliver McBurnie 13' — Missed Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 22' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Enzo Loiodice 23' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ayoze Pérez 29' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Javi Muñoz 33' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 41' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Sandro Ramírez 45' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Álex Baena 45' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pape Alassane Gueye 46' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Álex Baena 52' — Goal (0.41 xG, Open Play)Yeremi Pino 55' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Oliver McBurnie 56' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ayoze Pérez 58' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 62' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ayoze Pérez 65' — Goal (0.46 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 67' — Missed Shot (0.50 xG, Set Piece)Álex Suárez 67' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Mika Mármol 70' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Oliver McBurnie 70' — Saved Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Sandro Ramírez 70' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 71' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Manu Fuster 83' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Juan Herzog 86' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Oliver McBurnie 88' — Shot On Post (0.05 xG, Open Play)Marvin Park 90' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Benito Ramírez 93' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pape Alassane Gueye 94' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Juan Herzog 95' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Las Palmas attacking right Villarreal attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
12' Villarreal Yeremi Pino 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ayoze Pérez
13' Las Palmas Oliver McBurnie 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Javi Muñoz
22' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Stefan Bajcetic
23' Las Palmas Enzo Loiodice 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
29' Villarreal Ayoze Pérez 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Yeremi Pino
33' Las Palmas Javi Muñoz 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Oliver McBurnie
41' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Javi Muñoz
45' Las Palmas Sandro Ramírez 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Javi Muñoz
45' Villarreal Álex Baena 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Daniel Parejo
46' Villarreal Pape Alassane Gueye 0.01 From Corner Saved Shot Álex Baena
52' Villarreal Álex Baena 0.41 Open Play Left Foot Goal Sergi Cardona
55' Villarreal Yeremi Pino 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
56' Las Palmas Oliver McBurnie 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alberto Moleiro
58' Villarreal Ayoze Pérez 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Yeremi Pino
62' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Sandro Ramírez
65' Villarreal Ayoze Pérez 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Goal Álex Baena
67' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.50 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
67' Las Palmas Álex Suárez 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
70' Las Palmas Mika Mármol 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Javi Muñoz
70' Las Palmas Oliver McBurnie 0.42 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
70' Las Palmas Sandro Ramírez 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Manu Fuster
71' Las Palmas Alberto Moleiro 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
83' Las Palmas Manu Fuster 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Oliver McBurnie
86' Las Palmas Juan Herzog 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Marvin Park
88' Las Palmas Oliver McBurnie 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Javi Muñoz
90' Las Palmas Marvin Park 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot Manu Fuster
93' Las Palmas Benito Ramírez 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Javi Muñoz
94' Villarreal Pape Alassane Gueye 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nicolas Pepe
95' Las Palmas Juan Herzog 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot Mika Mármol

Players

Las Palmas

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Oliver McBurnie FW 90 0 1 4 2 0.82 0.13 1.01
Alberto Moleiro AML 90 0 0 5 1 0.65 0.05 0.51
Javi Muñoz AMC 90 0 0 1 6 0.03 0.50 0.59
Mika Mármol DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.02 0.50
Scott McKenna DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Jasper Cillessen GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Sandro Ramírez AMR 86 0 0 2 1 0.12 0.02 0.43
Álex Suárez DC 86 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.13
Stefan Bajcetic DMC 79 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.22
Enzo Loiodice DMC 62 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.08
Andy Pelmard DR 62 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Manu Fuster Sub 28 1 0 1 2 0.10 0.09 0.21
Viti Rozada Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Marvin Park Sub 11 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.04 0.07
Juan Herzog Sub 4 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Benito Ramírez Sub 4 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.05

Villarreal

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Álex Baena ML 90 1 1 2 2 0.43 0.47 0.97
Pape Alassane Gueye MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.63
Diego Conde GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Juan Foyth DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.05
Sergi Cardona DL 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.41 0.99
Thierno Barry FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Willy Kambwala DC 80 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Yeremi Pino MR 77 0 0 2 3 0.14 0.13 0.73
Ayoze Pérez FW 69 1 0 3 1 0.58 0.07 0.68
Kiko Femenía DR 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Santiago Comesaña MC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pau Navarro Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.71
Daniel Parejo Sub 43 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.66
Nicolas Pepe Sub 21 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Tajon Buchanan Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Logan Costa Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eric Bailly Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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