Lazio v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 12
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.57 – 0.90
Goals − xG
-1.58 – +0.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
30.5%
Draw
27.3%
Atalanta win
42.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.44–1.63 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 1.58 xGAtalanta 1.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 15' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 15' |
 Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 16' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 19' |
Lazio |
Kenneth Taylor | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 20' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 27' |
Lazio |
Kenneth Taylor | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 29' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 30' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Éderson |
| 40' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 45' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Éderson |
| 46' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tijjani Noslin |
| 53' |
Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.34 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 54' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 59' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 63' |
Lazio |
Daniel Maldini | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tijjani Noslin |
| 66' |
Lazio |
Daniel Maldini | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Atalanta |
Lorenzo Bernasconi | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Éderson |
| 72' |
Atalanta |
Marten de Roon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Lazio |
Daniel Maldini | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Patric |
| 83' |
Lazio |
Petar Ratkov | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 86' |
Lazio |
Petar Ratkov | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 88' |
Lazio |
Daniel Maldini | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 88' |
Lazio |
Petar Ratkov | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Nuno Tavares |
| 90' |
Lazio |
Daniel Maldini | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Rovella |
| 93' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Lazio |
Patric | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Daniel Maldini FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.39 | 0.82 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.31 | 0.65 |
| Gustav Isaksen FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.78 |
| Oliver Provstgaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Kenneth Taylor MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Tijjani Noslin FWL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.62 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Mario Gila DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Patric Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Petar Ratkov Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Nicolo Rovella Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Matteo Cancellieri Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Boulaye Dia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éderson MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.38 | 0.82 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.46 | 0.77 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.88 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 72 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Sead Kolasinac Sub | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Lazar Samardzic AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.37 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Odilon Kossounou Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Honest Ahanor DC | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |