Lazio v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lazio

14:00 UTC

Atalanta

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 1,059h before kick-off

Lazio win

38.3%

model 35.7%

Draw

23.2%

model 25.0%

Atalanta win

38.5%

model 39.4%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
1-2 8.6%
0-1 8.4%
2-1 8.1%
1-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.4%	Under 2.5	45.6%
BTTS yes	57.8%	BTTS no	42.2%
Lazio 1+	75.0%	Lazio 2+	40.4%
Atalanta 1+	77.0%	Atalanta 2+	43.2%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.47. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Atalanta over 0.5 in 1st half

Away goals O/U 1HT · usually 41%

59.6% fair odds 1.68

strong signal · 513 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Atalanta (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 83%

83.7% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Atalanta have created 1.27 xG a match over their last five while Lazio have allowed 1.42.
Away from home Atalanta average 1.28 xG a match.

Risk factors

Lazio have scored 2.40 a match from 1.44 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Atalanta have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.3% for Lazio and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.39 for Lazio and 1.47 for Atalanta.

Why Lazio

Lazio carry the stronger rating, 1690 Elo against 1598. Lazio have created 1.44 xG a match over their last five while Atalanta have allowed 2.05. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. At home Lazio average 1.64 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.39 to 1.47. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Atalanta can win

Atalanta have created 1.27 xG a match over their last five while Lazio have allowed 1.42. Away from home Atalanta average 1.28 xG a match.

Key players

Lazio's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mattia Zaccagni (0.39), Davide Frattesi (0.28), Daniel Maldini (0.23). Atalanta's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Nikola Krstovic (0.41), Charles De Ketelaere (0.40), Jonathan Rowe (0.33).

Availability

27% of Lazio's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lazio: 50% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Atalanta: 45% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Atalanta are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lazio are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWDWWW last 10 scored 16 from 14.4 xG conceded 10 from 14.2 xG

Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLDWWLLLWL last 10 scored 14 from 12.8 xG conceded 15 from 20.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	362539	1.39–1.47	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	382636	1.32–1.29	1-1 13%	48%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win	39.0%	36.4%	40.1%	0.91×	2.75
Atalanta to win	36.0%	36.3%	33.6%	1.08×	2.75
Draw	25.1%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & both teams score	19.8%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Lazio & not both score	19.2%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Atalanta & both teams score	18.4%	18.0%	13.2%	1.36×	5.56
Atalanta & not both score	17.6%	18.0%	20.5%	0.88×	5.56
Draw & not both score	5.9%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & over 1.5	30.4%	30.8%	30.0%	1.02×	3.25
Atalanta & over 1.5	27.8%	26.1%	24.6%	1.06×	3.84
Lazio & under 3.5	26.2%	26.1%	29.5%	0.88×	3.84
Lazio & over 2.5	24.3%	21.6%	23.4%	0.92×	4.63
Atalanta & under 3.5	24.5%	21.6%	26.3%	0.82×	4.63
Atalanta & over 2.5	22.2%	21.6%	18.1%	1.19×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.7%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Lazio & under 2.5	14.7%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Atalanta & under 2.5	13.8%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.79
Lazio & over 3.5	12.7%	12.8%	10.7%	1.20×	7.79
Atalanta & over 3.5	11.5%	12.8%	7.4%	1.72×	7.79
Lazio & under 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.4%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.4%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Atalanta & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1UP)	56.2%	58.0%	55.3%	1.05×	1.73
Atalanta (1UP)	53.6%	52.7%	50.4%	1.04×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2UP)	39.0%	37.5%	41.9%	0.90×	2.67
Atalanta (2UP)	36.0%	37.3%	36.1%	1.03×	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win 2nd half	40.3%	41.9%	34.9%	1.20×	2.39
2nd half drawn	36.2%	36.0%	35.1%	1.03×	2.78
Atalanta to win 2nd half	23.5%	24.2%	30.1%	0.80×	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.6%	87.0%	85.0%	1.02×	1.15
Atalanta under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.6%	52.5%	49.9%	1.05×	1.91
Atalanta over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.4%	47.5%	50.1%	0.95×	2.11
Atalanta over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.4%	13.0%	15.0%	0.86×	7.71

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.5%	75.5%	81.4%	0.93×	1.33
Lazio over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.0%	58.0%	53.8%	1.08×	1.72
Lazio under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.0%	42.0%	46.2%	0.91×	2.38
Lazio over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.5%	24.5%	18.6%	1.32×	4.08

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (+2.5)	93.0%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Atalanta (+1.5)	81.5%	82.5%	82.5%	1.00×	1.21
Lazio (+0.5)	64.0%	63.0%	66.4%	0.95×	1.59
Atalanta (+0.5)	61.0%	62.9%	59.9%	1.05×	1.59
Lazio (-0.5)	39.0%	37.1%	40.1%	0.92×	2.70
Atalanta (-0.5)	36.0%	37.0%	33.6%	1.10×	2.70
Lazio (-1.5)	18.5%	17.5%	17.5%	1.00×	5.72
Lazio (-2.5)	7.0%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to concede	76.6%	78.8%	71.7%	1.10×	1.27
Atalanta clean sheet	23.4%	21.2%	28.3%	0.75×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta clean sheet in 1st half	57.2%	57.0%	57.9%	0.99×	1.75
Atalanta to concede in 1st half	42.8%	43.0%	42.1%	1.02×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to concede in 2nd half	59.0%	57.3%	53.8%	1.07×	1.74
Atalanta clean sheet in 2nd half	41.0%	42.7%	46.2%	0.92×	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 6.5 corners	79.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Atalanta over 2.5 corners	74.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Atalanta under 5.5 corners	69.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Atalanta over 3.5 corners	58.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Atalanta under 4.5 corners	56.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Atalanta over 4.5 corners	43.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Atalanta under 3.5 corners	41.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Atalanta over 5.5 corners	30.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Atalanta under 2.5 corners	25.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Atalanta over 6.5 corners	20.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 3.5 goals	94.8%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Atalanta under 2.5 goals	83.7%	81.5%	88.1%	0.92×	1.23
Atalanta over 0.5 goals	75.0%	71.9%	69.6%	1.03×	1.39
Atalanta under 1.5 goals	59.7%	59.4%	64.9%	0.92×	1.68
Atalanta over 1.5 goals	40.3%	40.6%	35.1%	1.16×	2.47
Atalanta under 0.5 goals	25.0%	28.1%	30.4%	0.93×	3.56
Atalanta over 2.5 goals	16.3%	18.5%	11.9%	1.56×	5.40
Atalanta over 3.5 goals	5.2%	7.6%	2.9%	2.65×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 1.5 in 1st half	81.6%	83.1%	89.9%	0.92×	1.20
Atalanta over 0.5 in 1st half	54.1%	55.8%	41.2%	1.35×	1.79
Atalanta under 0.5 in 1st half	45.9%	44.3%	58.8%	0.75×	2.26
Atalanta over 1.5 in 1st half	18.4%	16.9%	10.1%	1.68×	5.91

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta scores equally in both	38.3%	37.4%	43.3%	0.86×	2.68
Atalanta scores more in 1st half	36.1%	37.3%	23.9%	1.56×	2.68
Atalanta scores more in 2nd half	25.6%	26.1%	32.9%	0.79×	3.83

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (away no bet)	60.8%	61.9%	60.3%	1.03×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	39.2%	38.1%	39.7%	0.96×	2.62

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta even goals	53.1%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Atalanta odd goals	46.9%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.9%	82.9%	87.3%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.1%	17.1%	12.7%	1.34×	5.87

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.7%	68.3%	60.3%	1.13×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.3%	31.7%	39.7%	0.80×	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.4%	55.2%	53.4%	1.03×	1.81
Lazio to score 2+ in a row	33.5%	29.2%	31.8%	0.92×	3.42
Atalanta to score 2+ in a row	31.1%	29.1%	27.7%	1.05×	3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.3%	19.6%	17.9%	1.09×	5.11
Lazio to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.0%	10.1%	1.19×	8.33
Atalanta to score 3+ in a row	9.7%	5.6%	7.9%	0.71×	17.78

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta corners (+3.5)	84.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lazio corners (+3.5)	82.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Atalanta corners (+2.5)	76.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lazio corners (+2.5)	75.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atalanta corners (+1.5)	67.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Lazio corners (+1.5)	65.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Atalanta corners (-1.5)	34.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Lazio corners (-1.5)	32.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Atalanta corners (-2.5)	24.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lazio corners (-2.5)	23.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Atalanta corners (-3.5)	17.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Lazio corners (-3.5)	15.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	51.0%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	21.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	61.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	60.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	40.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	38.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	29.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	21.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.8%	11.5%	11.9%	0.97×	8.72
1-0	8.5%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
0-1	8.1%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.51
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	7.4%	0.99×	13.51
0-0	5.9%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.51
0-2	5.6%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
2-0	6.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
2-2	5.9%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.30
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.30
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.31
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2nd half DNB)	63.1%	63.0%	53.7%	1.17×	1.59
Atalanta (2nd half DNB)	36.9%	37.1%	46.3%	0.80×	2.70

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta leading at HT (DNB)	61.0%	65.6%	48.8%	1.34×	1.53
Lazio leading at HT (DNB)	39.0%	34.4%	51.2%	0.67×	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or Atalanta (12)	74.9%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Lazio or draw (1X)	64.0%	63.7%	66.4%	0.96×	1.57
Atalanta or draw (X2)	61.0%	63.6%	59.9%	1.06×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta or draw at HT	76.2%	79.2%	71.5%	1.11×	1.26
Lazio or draw at HT	62.8%	61.4%	72.9%	0.84×	1.63
Lazio or Atalanta at HT	61.0%	61.4%	55.5%	1.11×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw (1UP)	64.0%	71.7%	71.7%	1.00×	1.39
Atalanta or draw (1UP)	61.0%	71.5%	65.4%	1.09×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw in 2nd half	76.5%	75.9%	69.9%	1.09×	1.32
Lazio or Atalanta in 2nd half	63.8%	64.0%	64.9%	0.99×	1.56
Atalanta or draw in 2nd half	59.7%	58.1%	65.1%	0.89×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.0%	61.5%	63.5%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.0%	38.5%	36.5%	1.06×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (DNB)	52.0%	50.9%	54.4%	0.94×	1.96
Atalanta (DNB)	48.0%	49.1%	45.6%	1.08×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score first	48.2%	46.0%	48.6%	0.95×	2.17
Atalanta to score first	46.0%	45.9%	43.6%	1.05×	2.18
No goal scored	5.9%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.50

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.4%	55.0%	49.2%	1.12×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.6%	45.0%	50.8%	0.89×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.6%	44.3%	37.5%	1.18×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	34.3%	34.5%	40.1%	0.86×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.8%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.3%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.9%	82.6%	86.4%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.1%	17.4%	13.6%	1.28×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.2%	73.7%	74.8%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.8%	26.3%	25.2%	1.04×	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.2%	59.8%	62.7%	0.96×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	20.6%	21.2%	20.4%	1.04×	4.71
Both score 1st half only	17.0%	15.0%	12.2%	1.22×	6.68
Both score in both halves	6.2%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.8%	81.0%	83.0%	0.98×	1.24
Both teams to score by HT	23.2%	19.0%	17.0%	1.12×	5.26

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.3%	57.3%	52.8%	1.08×	1.75
A half without a goal	42.7%	42.7%	47.2%	0.91×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.9%	47.2%	48.4%	0.98×	2.12
4-6 goals	29.0%	26.6%	23.9%	1.11×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.5%	22.9%	27.0%	0.85×	4.37
7+ goals	2.6%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.24

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to score exactly 1	34.7%	33.8%	34.7%	0.98×	2.95
Atalanta to score exactly 0	25.0%	27.4%	30.4%	0.90×	3.66
Atalanta to score exactly 2	24.0%	22.3%	23.3%	0.96×	4.48
Atalanta to score 3+	16.3%	19.6%	11.9%	1.65×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score exactly 1	34.0%	32.6%	32.1%	1.02×	3.07
Lazio to score exactly 2	24.7%	23.3%	24.7%	0.94×	4.29
Lazio to score exactly 0	23.4%	23.3%	28.3%	0.82×	4.29
Lazio to score 3+	17.9%	18.8%	15.1%	1.24×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.0%	38.6%	44.5%	0.87×	2.59
Atalanta leading at HT	37.2%	38.6%	27.1%	1.42×	2.59
Lazio leading at HT	23.8%	20.8%	28.5%	0.73×	4.81

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio -1: 2	61.0%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Lazio -1: X	20.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Lazio -1: 1	18.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:1)	61.0%	61.3%	59.9%	1.02×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.5%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13
Lazio (0:1)	18.5%	17.8%	17.5%	1.02×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:2)	81.5%	82.9%	82.5%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.5%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.10
Lazio (0:2)	7.0%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:3)	93.0%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.8%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.00
Lazio (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.93
Lazio (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1:0)	64.0%	65.4%	66.4%	0.98×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	19.5%	17.1%	19.3%	0.89×	5.84
Atalanta (1:0)	16.4%	17.1%	14.4%	1.19×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2:0)	83.6%	84.6%	85.6%	0.99×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.5%	10.3%	8.6%	1.19×	9.74
Atalanta (2:0)	6.0%	6.4%	5.9%	1.08×	15.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.1%	44.0%	46.2%	0.95×	2.27
1st half highest scoring	33.9%	31.0%	27.0%	1.15×	3.23
Halves equal	25.0%	26.2%	26.9%	0.97×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede	75.0%	73.2%	69.6%	1.05×	1.37
Lazio clean sheet	25.0%	26.8%	30.4%	0.88×	3.74

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede in 1st half	54.1%	55.8%	41.2%	1.35×	1.79
Lazio clean sheet in 1st half	45.9%	44.3%	58.8%	0.75×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio clean sheet in 2nd half	54.6%	52.6%	49.9%	1.05×	1.90
Lazio to concede in 2nd half	45.4%	47.4%	50.1%	0.95×	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 6.5 corners	81.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lazio over 2.5 corners	73.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Lazio under 5.5 corners	71.0%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Lazio under 4.5 corners	58.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lazio over 3.5 corners	57.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lazio under 3.5 corners	42.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lazio over 4.5 corners	42.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lazio over 5.5 corners	29.0%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Lazio under 2.5 corners	26.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Lazio over 6.5 corners	19.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 3.5 goals	94.0%	92.2%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Lazio under 2.5 goals	82.1%	82.2%	84.9%	0.97×	1.22
Lazio over 0.5 goals	76.6%	77.7%	71.7%	1.08×	1.29
Lazio under 1.5 goals	57.4%	58.6%	60.3%	0.97×	1.71
Lazio over 1.5 goals	42.6%	41.4%	39.7%	1.04×	2.42
Lazio under 0.5 goals	23.4%	22.3%	28.3%	0.79×	4.49
Lazio over 2.5 goals	17.9%	17.8%	15.1%	1.18×	5.62
Lazio over 3.5 goals	6.0%	7.8%	4.7%	1.66×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 1st half	89.1%	90.3%	89.3%	1.01×	1.11
Lazio under 0.5 in 1st half	57.2%	56.8%	57.9%	0.98×	1.76
Lazio over 0.5 in 1st half	42.8%	43.2%	42.1%	1.03×	2.31
Lazio over 1.5 in 1st half	10.9%	9.7%	10.7%	0.91×	10.33

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio scores more in 2nd half	41.5%	42.2%	36.3%	1.16×	2.37
Lazio scores equally in both	36.7%	37.7%	41.7%	0.91×	2.65
Lazio scores more in 1st half	21.8%	21.2%	22.2%	0.96×	4.71

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (home no bet)	58.9%	56.5%	56.0%	1.01×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	41.1%	43.5%	44.0%	0.99×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio even goals	52.7%	50.7%	56.2%	0.90×	1.97
Lazio odd goals	47.3%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.2%	28.2%	33.7%	0.84×	3.55
HT 0-1	20.4%	24.3%	18.1%	1.34×	4.11
HT 1-0	14.7%	11.0%	18.5%	0.60×	9.09
HT 1-1	11.4%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.12
HT 0-2	8.0%	6.9%	5.4%	1.28×	14.46
Any other HT score	6.3%	6.9%	3.4%	2.05×	14.49
HT 1-2	4.5%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.01
HT 2-0	4.1%	2.4%	5.8%	0.41×	42.03
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.09
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta at HT / Atalanta at FT	25.7%	27.3%	19.1%	1.43×	3.67
Lazio at HT / Lazio at FT	19.3%	16.8%	22.1%	0.76×	5.96
Draw at HT / Lazio at FT	15.7%	16.7%	15.8%	1.06×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.1%	12.7%	16.1%	0.79×	7.89
Draw at HT / Atalanta at FT	9.2%	6.0%	12.8%	0.47×	16.56
Atalanta at HT / Draw at FT	7.6%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.61
Atalanta at HT / Lazio at FT	4.0%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.64
Lazio at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.5%	4.7%	0.75×	28.66
Lazio at HT / Atalanta at FT	1.1%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.75

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score last	48.2%	46.5%	48.1%	0.97×	2.15
Atalanta to score last	46.0%	46.4%	44.1%	1.05×	2.15
No goal scored	5.9%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.50

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.1%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Lazio to lead by 1 at any time	56.2%	54.9%	55.3%	0.99×	1.82
Atalanta to lead by 1 at any time	53.6%	50.9%	50.4%	1.01×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.6%	44.5%	43.7%	1.02×	2.25
Lazio to lead by 2 at any time	25.0%	25.4%	24.0%	1.06×	3.93
Atalanta to lead by 2 at any time	22.8%	19.7%	20.2%	0.97×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.8%	14.9%	15.1%	0.99×	6.70
Lazio to lead by 3 at any time	9.0%	6.7%	8.8%	0.77×	14.84
Atalanta to lead by 3 at any time	7.8%	6.7%	6.5%	1.04×	14.89

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta most corners	45.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Lazio most corners	43.3%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.3%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.3%	78.7%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.9%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.7%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.5%	63.3%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.3%	53.2%	47.3%	1.12×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.1%	48.5%	45.3%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.9%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.2%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	38.1%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.0%	30.2%	23.9%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.8%	24.5%	21.8%	1.12×	4.08
5-6 goals	13.2%	14.8%	10.7%	1.39×	6.75
7+ goals	2.6%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio never behind	40.5%	48.4%	49.6%	0.98×	2.07
Atalanta never behind	37.9%	44.1%	44.7%	0.99×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.4%	51.6%	56.5%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.6%	48.4%	43.5%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.9%	50.7%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.2%	82.3%	88.5%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.5%	77.3%	73.0%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.4%	66.3%	75.3%	0.88×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.9%	52.5%	48.1%	1.09×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.1%	47.5%	51.9%	0.92×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.6%	33.7%	24.7%	1.36×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.5%	22.7%	27.0%	0.84×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.8%	17.7%	11.5%	1.53×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	7.9%	0.98×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.3%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.5%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.3%	81.1%	86.7%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.5%	72.4%	64.1%	1.13×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.3%	55.8%	67.7%	0.82×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.7%	44.2%	32.3%	1.37×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.5%	27.6%	35.9%	0.77×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.8%	18.9%	13.3%	1.42×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.5%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.7%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.8%	85.9%	91.2%	0.94×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.8%	71.6%	66.3%	1.08×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.3%	63.1%	70.1%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	38.7%	36.9%	29.9%	1.23×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.2%	28.4%	33.7%	0.84×	3.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.2%	14.1%	8.8%	1.61×	7.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.0%	83.2%	82.4%	1.01×	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.6%	79.1%	78.6%	1.01×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.8%	56.9%	0.96×	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.2%	43.1%	1.05×	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.4%	20.9%	21.4%	0.98×	4.79
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.0%	16.8%	17.6%	0.95×	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta not to score in both halves	75.4%	78.4%	78.4%	1.00×	1.28
Lazio not to score in both halves	74.7%	74.0%	75.8%	0.98×	1.35
Lazio to score in both halves	25.3%	26.0%	24.3%	1.07×	3.84
Atalanta to score in both halves	24.6%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.4%	58.6%	49.2%	1.19×	1.71
Only Lazio scores	19.2%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.24
Only Atalanta scores	17.6%	16.0%	20.5%	0.78×	6.24
Neither team scores	5.9%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.6%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.6%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.8%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.0%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.8%	7.6%	3.0%	2.54×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.9%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.1%	37.3%	36.5%	1.02×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	26.2%	28.4%	33.7%	0.84×	3.52
2 goals in 1st half	23.5%	21.5%	21.2%	1.01×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	15.2%	15.6%	8.8%	1.78×	6.42

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.1%	45.6%	43.1%	1.06×	2.19
1 goal in 2nd half	33.5%	33.9%	35.7%	0.95×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	22.4%	23.0%	21.4%	1.07×	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta not to win both halves	91.2%	94.1%	91.1%	1.03×	1.06
Lazio not to win both halves	90.4%	94.1%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Lazio to win both halves	9.6%	5.9%	10.1%	0.59×	16.83
Atalanta to win both halves	8.8%	5.9%	8.9%	0.67×	16.89

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win either half	54.5%	54.3%	53.3%	1.02×	1.84
Atalanta to win either half	52.0%	54.2%	48.4%	1.12×	1.84
Atalanta to win neither half	48.0%	45.8%	51.6%	0.89×	2.19
Lazio to win neither half	45.5%	45.7%	46.7%	0.98×	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta not to win to nil	82.4%	83.1%	79.5%	1.05×	1.20
Lazio not to win to nil	80.8%	83.1%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Lazio to win to nil	19.2%	16.9%	22.6%	0.75×	5.91
Atalanta to win to nil	17.6%	16.9%	20.5%	0.82×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.1%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59
Lazio by 1	20.5%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
Atalanta by 1	19.5%	17.1%	19.3%	0.88×	5.87
Lazio by 2	11.5%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.51
Atalanta by 2	10.5%	11.8%	8.6%	1.36×	8.51
Lazio by 3+	7.0%	7.2%	7.7%	0.94×	13.91
Atalanta by 3+	6.0%	7.2%	5.9%	1.22×	13.91