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Lazio v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 4 November 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–1
3.40 – 0.27 xG
Shots
20 – 6
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
14 – 2
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.44 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.53 – +0.73
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.02.03.04.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Boulaye Dia 1' — goalZito 40' — goalMattia Zaccagni 75' — goal
Lazio 3.53 xGCagliari 0.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Boulaye Dia 1' — Goal (0.60 xG, Set Piece)Luca Pellegrini 1' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Roberto Piccoli 7' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Antoine Makoumbou 16' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Gustav Isaksen 17' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Valentín Castellanos 18' — Shot On Post (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ndary Adopo 22' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 28' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Noslin 30' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Gustav Isaksen 31' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Zito 40' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 44' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Gustav Isaksen 52' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 53' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Matías Vecino 58' — Blocked Shot (0.75 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 58' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Manuel Lazzari 59' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Roberto Piccoli 62' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Direct Freekick)Valentín Castellanos 64' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Mattia Zaccagni 75' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Matías Vecino 81' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Nicolo Rovella 82' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 88' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Deiola 90' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pedro 91' — Missed Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 91' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)
Lazio attacking right Cagliari attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Lazio Boulaye Dia 0.60 Set Piece Right Foot Goal
1' Lazio Luca Pellegrini 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
7' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gianluca Gaetano
16' Cagliari Antoine Makoumbou 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gabriele Zappa
17' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.01 Set Piece Missed Shot
18' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Boulaye Dia
22' Cagliari Ndary Adopo 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gianluca Gaetano
28' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Luca Pellegrini
30' Lazio Tijjani Noslin 0.07 Open Play Missed Shot Manuel Lazzari
31' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
40' Cagliari Zito 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Goal Antoine Makoumbou
44' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nicolo Rovella
52' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Matteo Guendouzi
53' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gustav Isaksen
58' Lazio Matías Vecino 0.75 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
58' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Manuel Lazzari
59' Lazio Manuel Lazzari 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
62' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.11 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
64' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Alessio Romagnoli
75' Lazio Mattia Zaccagni 0.76 Right Foot Goal
81' Lazio Matías Vecino 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
82' Lazio Nicolo Rovella 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mattia Zaccagni
88' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mattia Zaccagni
90' Cagliari Alessandro Deiola 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Sebastiano Luperto
91' Lazio Pedro 0.58 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
91' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Matías Vecino

Players

Cagliari

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Antoine Makoumbou DMC 90 0 1 1 1 0.03 0.06 0.14
Simone Scuffet GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gabriele Zappa DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.06
Sebastiano Luperto DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.16
Roberto Piccoli FW 85 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.05
Zito AML 85 1 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Ndary Adopo DMC 79 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.14
Nadir Zortea AMR 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Yerry Mina DC 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Gianluca Gaetano AMC 69 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.05 0.11
Tommaso Augello DL 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Nicolas Viola Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adam Obert Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Mattia Felici Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Alessandro Deiola Sub 5 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
José Luis Palomino Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lazio

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Valentín Castellanos FW 90 0 0 8 0 0.52 0.00 0.50
Luca Pellegrini DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.12 0.25
Nicolo Rovella DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.10 0.47
Alessio Romagnoli DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.35
Mario Gila DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Ivan Provedel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.37
Manuel Lazzari DR 82 0 0 1 2 0.01 0.12 0.27
Boulaye Dia AMC 81 1 0 1 1 0.60 0.02 0.15
Matteo Guendouzi DMC 74 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.24
Gustav Isaksen AMR 64 0 0 3 1 0.06 0.03 0.25
Tijjani Noslin AML 47 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Matías Vecino Sub 43 0 0 2 1 0.88 0.13 1.03
Pedro Sub 26 0 0 1 0 0.58 0.00 0.76
Mattia Zaccagni Sub 16 1 0 1 2 0.76 0.08 0.20
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub 9 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.18
Adam Marusic Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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