Lazio v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 19 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 11
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
2 – 8
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.94
Goals − xG
-0.47 – +0.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
33.0%
Draw
29.4%
Como win
37.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.33–1.20 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 51% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 0.47 xGComo 2.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álex Valle |
| 13' |
 Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 16' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenneth Taylor |
| 23' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 23' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Maxence Caqueret |
| 25' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kenneth Taylor |
| 29' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 34' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.76 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 37' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Petar Ratkov |
| 42' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 44' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Martin Baturina |
| 59' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 64' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Rovella |
| 72' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Paz |
| 73' |
Como |
Stefan Posch | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 74' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
| 75' |
Lazio |
Manuel Lazzari | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.01 | 0.42 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Reda Belahyane MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kenneth Taylor MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Luca Pellegrini DL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Petar Ratkov FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Gustav Isaksen Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicolo Rovella Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Manuel Lazzari Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Da Cunha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.13 | 0.51 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.55 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Máximo Perrone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 85 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.46 | 0.46 | 1.16 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Martin Baturina FW | 78 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.32 | 0.77 |
| Maxence Caqueret MC | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.54 | 0.82 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Stefan Posch Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Sergi Roberto Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Mergim Vojvoda Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |