Lazio v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 7 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 8
On target
8 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
2.11 – 0.95
Goals − xG
-0.91 – +0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
43.6%
Draw
30.7%
Fiorentina win
25.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.41–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.31 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 2.91 xGFiorentina 1.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 13' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Cancellieri |
| 16' |
Lazio |
Luca Pellegrini | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 16' |
Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 16' |
Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 17' |
Lazio |
Alessio Romagnoli | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luca Pellegrini |
| 32' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 38' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 45' |
 Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 47' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Gosens |
| 47' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matías Vecino |
| 55' |
Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 58' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Lazio |
Alessio Romagnoli | 0.68 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.29 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Pedro |
| 73' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Gila |
| 74' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 77' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Lazzari |
| 80' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.19 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 81' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 88' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 92' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Gila |
| 94' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Gudmundsson FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fabiano Parisi FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 0.40 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moise Kean Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Manor Solomon Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Ranieri Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Marí Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| Luca Pellegrini DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Matteo Guendouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Manuel Lazzari DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.27 |
| Gustav Isaksen FWR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.30 |
| Matías Vecino Sub | 61 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| Toma Basic MC | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Pedro Sub | 15 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.29 | 0.01 |
| Elseid Hysaj Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |