Lazio v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 5
On target
9 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 2
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.11
Goals − xG
+0.42 – -0.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
52.3%
Draw
30.6%
Lecce win
17.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–0.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.77–0.83 | 1-0 13% | 48% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 1.58 xGLecce 0.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Lazio |
Matteo Guendouzi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Toma Basic |
| 14' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Toma Basic |
| 15' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 25' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Lazio |
Matteo Guendouzi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Toma Basic |
| 35' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 35' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Lazio |
Matteo Guendouzi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 46' |
 Lecce |
Kialonda Gaspar | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 55' |
Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Toma Basic |
| 55' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matías Vecino |
| 55' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 57' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 65' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 67' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Lazio |
Matteo Guendouzi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 71' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Gustav Isaksen |
| 80' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 90' |
Lecce |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konan N’Dri |
| 94' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ivan Provedel |
| 94' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Guendouzi MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Toma Basic MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.55 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.38 |
| Mario Gila DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gustav Isaksen FWR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.49 |
| Luca Pellegrini DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Matías Vecino Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Manuel Lazzari Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Patric Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Lassana Coulibaly DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Tete Morente AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Riccardo Sottil AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Camarda FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Medon Berisha AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lameck Banda Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Pierotti Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Mohamed Kaba Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |