Lazio v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lazio

3–1

2.22 – 1.30 xG

Monza

Shots

17 – 14

On target

7 – 6

Shots in box

7 – 10

xG per shot

0.13 – 0.10

Set-piece xG

0.07 – 0.64

Goals − xG

+0.78 – -0.34

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Oct, 11:13 · 2h before kick-off

Lazio win

53.5%

model 51.3%

Draw

23.3%

model 24.6%

Monza win

23.3%

model 24.1%

532323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
1-0 11.2%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 9.2%
0-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.3%	Under 2.5	49.7%
BTTS yes	52.2%	BTTS no	47.8%
Lazio 1+	80.6%	Lazio 2+	48.8%
Monza 1+	64.8%	Monza 2+	28.0%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Lazio to win 2nd half

2nd half 1X2 · usually 35%

62.4% fair odds 1.60

strong signal · 130 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4320 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Lazio carry the stronger rating, 1645 Elo against 1573.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
At home Lazio average 1.55 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lazio have an estimated 53.5% win probability, against 23.3% for the draw and 23.3% for Monza. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for Lazio and 1.04 for Monza.

Why Lazio

Lazio carry the stronger rating, 1645 Elo against 1573. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. At home Lazio average 1.55 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Monza can win

Nothing in the data singles out Monza.

Key players

Lazio's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mattia Zaccagni (0.40), Davide Frattesi (0.29), Daniel Maldini (0.23). Monza's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gustavo Varela (0.61), Ricardo Mangas (0.27), Dany Mota (0.27).

Availability

27% of Lazio's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Monza's top three contributors did not start their last match. Monza changed goalkeeper for their last match. 82% of Monza's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lazio: 46% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Monza: 46% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.40 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-11 15:06 · team_stats 2026-10-11 06:07 · availability 2026-10-11 15:13 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Lazio are the model's most likely outcome at 53.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lazio are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWDWWW last 10 scored 16 from 14.4 xG conceded 10 from 14.2 xG

Monza are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLDLWLW last 10 scored 16 from 16.2 xG conceded 21 from 17.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	512524	1.64–1.04	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	572320	1.84–0.99	1-0 11%	54%	53%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	582320	1.84–0.97	1-0 11%	53%	52%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win	44.3%	42.9%	39.7%	1.08×	2.33
Monza to win	28.4%	27.9%	33.7%	0.83×	3.58
Draw	27.4%	27.9%	26.7%	1.04×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & not both score	26.7%	25.1%	22.5%	1.11×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	18.1%	18.0%	18.8%	0.95×	5.57
Lazio & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	17.2%	1.04×	5.57
Monza & not both score	16.6%	18.0%	20.7%	0.87×	5.57
Monza & both teams score	11.8%	13.3%	13.2%	1.01×	7.53
Draw & not both score	9.3%	8.3%	8.0%	1.04×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & under 3.5	33.6%	30.8%	29.6%	1.04×	3.25
Lazio & over 1.5	31.7%	30.8%	29.4%	1.05×	3.25
Lazio & over 2.5	23.2%	21.6%	22.8%	0.95×	4.63
Monza & under 3.5	22.7%	21.6%	26.5%	0.82×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	22.2%	21.6%	19.8%	1.09×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	22.2%	21.6%	19.8%	1.09×	4.63
Lazio & under 2.5	21.1%	21.6%	17.0%	1.27×	4.63
Monza & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	24.5%	0.73×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	18.8%	0.95×	5.56
Monza & under 2.5	14.4%	12.9%	16.0%	0.80×	7.78
Monza & over 2.5	13.9%	12.9%	17.9%	0.72×	7.78
Lazio & under 1.5	12.6%	12.9%	10.3%	1.24×	7.78
Lazio & over 3.5	10.6%	12.9%	10.2%	1.26×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	8.0%	0.99×	12.63
Monza & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	9.4%	0.85×	12.62
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Monza & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	7.4%	1.07×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1UP)	58.2%	58.4%	55.0%	1.06×	1.71
Monza (1UP)	44.0%	39.1%	50.9%	0.77×	2.56

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2UP)	44.3%	47.3%	41.5%	1.14×	2.12
Monza (2UP)	28.4%	25.4%	36.3%	0.70×	3.94

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win 2nd half	45.9%	44.9%	35.0%	1.28×	2.23
2nd half drawn	38.6%	36.0%	35.2%	1.02×	2.78
Monza to win 2nd half	15.6%	18.3%	29.9%	0.61×	5.48

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 2nd half	94.2%	91.6%	85.1%	1.08×	1.09
Monza under 0.5 in 2nd half	67.8%	70.3%	50.0%	1.41×	1.42
Monza over 0.5 in 2nd half	32.2%	29.7%	50.0%	0.59×	3.37
Monza over 1.5 in 2nd half	5.8%	8.4%	14.9%	0.56×	11.93

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.9%	75.5%	81.3%	0.93×	1.32
Lazio over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.6%	57.9%	53.8%	1.08×	1.73
Lazio under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.4%	42.1%	46.2%	0.91×	2.38
Lazio over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.1%	24.5%	18.7%	1.31×	4.09

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (+2.5)	92.4%	92.1%	92.5%	1.00×	1.09
Monza (+1.5)	79.3%	78.5%	82.9%	0.95×	1.27
Lazio (+0.5)	71.6%	73.6%	66.3%	1.11×	1.36
Monza (+0.5)	55.7%	57.0%	60.3%	0.95×	1.75
Lazio (-0.5)	44.3%	43.0%	39.7%	1.08×	2.33
Monza (-0.5)	28.4%	26.4%	33.7%	0.78×	3.79
Lazio (-1.5)	20.7%	21.5%	17.1%	1.26×	4.65
Lazio (-2.5)	7.6%	7.9%	7.5%	1.05×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede	74.1%	76.7%	71.4%	1.07×	1.30
Monza clean sheet	25.9%	23.3%	28.6%	0.82×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 1st half	62.6%	64.6%	58.4%	1.11×	1.55
Monza to concede in 1st half	37.4%	35.4%	41.6%	0.85×	2.83

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede in 2nd half	58.6%	57.6%	53.8%	1.07×	1.74
Monza clean sheet in 2nd half	41.4%	42.4%	46.2%	0.92×	2.36

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 6.5 corners	83.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Monza under 5.5 corners	74.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Monza over 2.5 corners	71.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Monza under 4.5 corners	61.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Monza over 3.5 corners	54.4%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Monza under 3.5 corners	45.6%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Monza over 4.5 corners	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Monza under 2.5 corners	28.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Monza over 5.5 corners	26.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Monza over 6.5 corners	16.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 3.5 goals	98.0%	97.5%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Monza under 2.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	88.4%	1.04×	1.08
Monza under 1.5 goals	72.8%	71.9%	65.1%	1.10×	1.39
Monza over 0.5 goals	64.0%	63.2%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
Monza under 0.5 goals	36.0%	36.8%	30.4%	1.21×	2.72
Monza over 1.5 goals	27.2%	28.1%	34.9%	0.81×	3.56
Monza over 2.5 goals	8.4%	7.7%	11.6%	0.66×	13.01
Monza over 3.5 goals	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	0.85×	39.96

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.1%	90.1%	0.99×	1.12
Monza under 0.5 in 1st half	53.1%	55.5%	59.0%	0.94×	1.80
Monza over 0.5 in 1st half	46.9%	44.5%	41.0%	1.08×	2.25
Monza over 1.5 in 1st half	13.3%	10.9%	9.9%	1.11×	9.16

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza scores equally in both	45.4%	47.9%	43.6%	1.10×	2.09
Monza scores more in 1st half	35.5%	36.9%	23.6%	1.56×	2.71
Monza scores more in 2nd half	19.1%	18.5%	32.9%	0.56×	5.42

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (away no bet)	61.8%	62.0%	59.7%	1.04×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	38.2%	38.0%	40.3%	0.94×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza even goals	56.5%	56.9%	55.8%	1.02×	1.76
Monza odd goals	43.5%	43.1%	44.2%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.1%	87.9%	87.2%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.9%	12.1%	12.8%	0.94×	8.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	55.5%	60.2%	59.6%	1.01×	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	44.5%	39.8%	40.4%	0.99×	2.51

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	48.6%	45.9%	53.0%	0.87×	2.18
Lazio to score 2+ in a row	32.3%	29.2%	31.4%	0.93×	3.42
Monza to score 2+ in a row	20.6%	19.5%	27.7%	0.70×	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.4%	16.2%	17.2%	0.94×	6.16
Lazio to score 3+ in a row	10.6%	12.0%	9.7%	1.23×	8.34
Monza to score 3+ in a row	5.0%	2.7%	7.6%	0.35×	37.11

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio corners (+3.5)	84.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Monza corners (+3.5)	84.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lazio corners (+2.5)	77.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Monza corners (+2.5)	76.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lazio corners (+1.5)	67.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Monza corners (+1.5)	66.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Lazio corners (-1.5)	33.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Monza corners (-1.5)	32.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Lazio corners (-2.5)	23.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Monza corners (-2.5)	22.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lazio corners (-3.5)	16.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Monza corners (-3.5)	15.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	56.0%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	25.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.0%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	82.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	66.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	56.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 7.5 corners	44.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 8.5 corners	44.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	33.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	25.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	18.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.19
Over 12.5 corners	12.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.6%	11.5%	10.3%	1.11×	8.73
1-1	12.9%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
0-0	9.3%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.50
0-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
2-0	8.5%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.50
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
1-2	6.6%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.50
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.33
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.34
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.74×	58.35
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.34
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.35
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.33
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.34
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	6.96×	58.35
3-0	3.8%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.33
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.33
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.34
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.35
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	6.96×	58.35
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.35
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.35
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	0.1%	13.92×	58.35
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	6.96×	58.35
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.96×	58.35
Any other score	1.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.34

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2nd half DNB)	74.6%	69.2%	53.9%	1.28×	1.45
Monza (2nd half DNB)	25.4%	30.8%	46.1%	0.67×	3.25

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza leading at HT (DNB)	59.6%	58.2%	49.3%	1.18×	1.72
Lazio leading at HT (DNB)	40.4%	41.8%	50.7%	0.83×	2.39

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or Monza (12)	72.6%	72.1%	73.3%	0.98×	1.39
Lazio or draw (1X)	71.6%	72.1%	66.3%	1.09×	1.39
Monza or draw (X2)	55.7%	57.1%	60.3%	0.95×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw at HT	77.3%	79.4%	72.0%	1.10×	1.26
Lazio or draw at HT	66.5%	66.7%	72.8%	0.92×	1.50
Lazio or Monza at HT	56.2%	57.0%	55.0%	1.04×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw (1UP)	71.6%	79.5%	71.6%	1.11×	1.26
Monza or draw (1UP)	55.7%	63.0%	66.0%	0.95×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw in 2nd half	84.4%	81.7%	70.1%	1.17×	1.22
Lazio or Monza in 2nd half	61.4%	64.0%	64.8%	0.99×	1.56
Monza or draw in 2nd half	54.1%	55.1%	65.0%	0.85×	1.81

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.5%	68.6%	63.9%	1.07×	1.46
Neither half drawn	34.5%	31.4%	36.1%	0.87×	3.18

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (DNB)	61.0%	62.6%	54.0%	1.16×	1.60
Monza (DNB)	39.0%	37.4%	46.0%	0.81×	2.67

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score first	51.6%	53.1%	48.2%	1.10×	1.88
Monza to score first	39.1%	32.9%	44.0%	0.75×	3.04
No goal scored	9.3%	7.5%	8.0%	0.94×	13.29

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	52.6%	51.3%	51.0%	1.01×	1.95
Both teams to score	47.4%	48.7%	49.0%	0.99×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.9%	41.6%	40.8%	1.02×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	34.5%	34.5%	37.2%	0.93×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	12.4%	11.9%	1.03×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	7.7%	8.3%	10.3%	0.80×	12.04

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.4%	85.7%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.6%	14.3%	13.5%	1.06×	6.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	81.2%	72.3%	74.6%	0.97×	1.38
Both teams to score in 2nd half	18.8%	27.7%	25.4%	1.09×	3.61

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	66.9%	62.5%	62.9%	0.99×	1.60
Both score 2nd half only	15.5%	15.3%	20.4%	0.75×	6.52
Both score 1st half only	14.2%	10.7%	11.8%	0.90×	9.36
Both score in both halves	3.3%	4.9%	5.0%	0.96×	20.61

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.5%	83.2%	83.3%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.5%	16.8%	16.7%	1.00×	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	52.0%	53.3%	47.7%	1.12×	1.88
A goal in each half	48.0%	46.7%	52.3%	0.89×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.2%	48.3%	0.98×	2.12
0-1 goals	31.5%	30.8%	27.5%	1.12×	3.25
4-6 goals	20.4%	22.8%	23.5%	0.97×	4.38
7+ goals	1.1%	1.8%	1.0%	1.86×	54.69

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	34.9%	1.03×	2.78
Monza to score exactly 0	36.0%	35.9%	30.4%	1.18×	2.78
Monza to score exactly 2	18.8%	19.6%	23.4%	0.84×	5.11
Monza to score 3+	8.4%	8.6%	11.6%	0.74×	11.68

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score exactly 1	35.0%	35.5%	32.1%	1.11×	2.81
Lazio to score exactly 0	25.9%	26.5%	28.6%	0.93×	3.77
Lazio to score exactly 2	23.6%	23.3%	25.0%	0.93×	4.29
Lazio to score 3+	15.4%	18.8%	14.5%	1.29×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.8%	43.0%	45.0%	0.96×	2.33
Monza leading at HT	33.5%	33.3%	27.2%	1.22×	3.01
Lazio leading at HT	22.7%	20.6%	28.0%	0.74×	4.86

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio -1: 2	55.7%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Lazio -1: X	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Lazio -1: 1	20.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:1)	55.7%	55.7%	60.3%	0.92×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	23.5%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13
Lazio (0:1)	20.7%	24.2%	17.1%	1.41×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:2)	79.3%	79.4%	82.9%	0.96×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.1%	11.0%	9.7%	1.13×	9.12
Lazio (0:2)	7.6%	7.7%	7.5%	1.02×	13.01

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:3)	92.4%	92.7%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.3%	5.8%	4.6%	1.27×	17.29
Lazio (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	3.1%	0.77×	42.27

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	2.2%	0.55×	82.66
Lazio (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	82.79

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1:0)	71.6%	72.4%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.8%	17.1%	19.7%	0.87×	5.85
Monza (1:0)	10.5%	12.7%	14.2%	0.90×	7.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2:0)	89.5%	88.5%	85.8%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.5%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.67
Monza (2:0)	3.0%	2.3%	5.7%	0.41×	43.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	40.2%	48.7%	46.4%	1.05×	2.06
1st half highest scoring	32.0%	27.7%	26.5%	1.05×	3.61
Halves equal	27.7%	26.3%	27.2%	0.97×	3.80

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede	64.0%	63.7%	69.6%	0.92×	1.57
Lazio clean sheet	36.0%	36.3%	30.4%	1.19×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio clean sheet in 1st half	53.1%	55.5%	59.0%	0.94×	1.80
Lazio to concede in 1st half	46.9%	44.5%	41.0%	1.08×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio clean sheet in 2nd half	67.8%	67.7%	50.0%	1.35×	1.48
Lazio to concede in 2nd half	32.2%	32.3%	50.0%	0.65×	3.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 6.5 corners	82.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lazio under 5.5 corners	73.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Lazio over 2.5 corners	71.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Lazio under 4.5 corners	60.3%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Lazio over 3.5 corners	55.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Lazio under 3.5 corners	44.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Lazio over 4.5 corners	39.7%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Lazio under 2.5 corners	28.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Lazio over 5.5 corners	26.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Lazio over 6.5 corners	17.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 3.5 goals	95.2%	96.3%	95.4%	1.01×	1.04
Lazio under 2.5 goals	84.6%	82.2%	85.5%	0.96×	1.22
Lazio over 0.5 goals	74.1%	74.3%	71.4%	1.04×	1.35
Lazio under 1.5 goals	60.9%	63.6%	60.6%	1.05×	1.57
Lazio over 1.5 goals	39.1%	36.4%	39.4%	0.92×	2.75
Lazio under 0.5 goals	25.9%	25.7%	28.6%	0.90×	3.89
Lazio over 2.5 goals	15.4%	17.8%	14.5%	1.23×	5.61
Lazio over 3.5 goals	4.8%	3.7%	4.6%	0.80×	27.38

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 1st half	91.9%	94.9%	89.9%	1.06×	1.05
Lazio under 0.5 in 1st half	62.6%	64.2%	58.4%	1.10×	1.56
Lazio over 0.5 in 1st half	37.4%	35.8%	41.6%	0.86×	2.79
Lazio over 1.5 in 1st half	8.1%	5.1%	10.1%	0.51×	19.48

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio scores more in 2nd half	43.6%	42.1%	36.5%	1.16×	2.37
Lazio scores equally in both	37.8%	37.8%	42.1%	0.90×	2.65
Lazio scores more in 1st half	18.6%	15.2%	21.6%	0.71×	6.56

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (home no bet)	50.9%	51.5%	55.8%	0.92×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	49.1%	48.5%	44.2%	1.10×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio even goals	53.4%	50.7%	56.5%	0.90×	1.97
Lazio odd goals	46.6%	49.3%	43.5%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.2%	33.0%	34.1%	0.97×	3.03
HT 0-1	21.1%	24.1%	18.4%	1.31×	4.15
HT 1-0	15.6%	18.8%	18.6%	1.01×	5.31
HT 1-1	9.9%	7.0%	10.3%	0.67×	14.35
HT 0-2	6.7%	6.9%	5.3%	1.31×	14.40
Any other HT score	3.8%	2.4%	3.1%	0.77×	42.27
HT 2-0	3.6%	2.4%	5.5%	0.43×	42.29
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.4%	2.6%	0.91×	42.32
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.4%	2.3%	1.01×	42.38
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	0.7%	3.19×	42.48

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza at HT / Monza at FT	21.0%	21.6%	19.0%	1.14×	4.63
Draw at HT / Lazio at FT	20.1%	21.6%	15.9%	1.36×	4.64
Lazio at HT / Lazio at FT	19.8%	16.8%	21.6%	0.78×	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.9%	16.8%	16.3%	1.03×	5.96
Monza at HT / Draw at FT	8.1%	6.1%	6.0%	1.01×	16.39
Draw at HT / Monza at FT	6.8%	6.1%	13.1%	0.47×	16.42
Monza at HT / Lazio at FT	4.4%	3.5%	2.5%	1.41×	28.85
Lazio at HT / Draw at FT	2.4%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.93
Lazio at HT / Monza at FT	0.5%	3.4%	2.0%	1.75×	29.00

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score last	51.6%	51.7%	48.3%	1.07×	1.93
Monza to score last	39.1%	39.0%	43.8%	0.89×	2.57
No goal scored	9.3%	7.5%	8.0%	0.94×	13.29

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.7%	92.6%	92.0%	1.01×	1.08
Lazio to lead by 1 at any time	58.2%	55.1%	55.0%	1.00×	1.81
Monza to lead by 1 at any time	44.0%	39.2%	50.9%	0.77×	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	40.7%	39.1%	43.0%	0.91×	2.56
Lazio to lead by 2 at any time	26.0%	25.3%	23.4%	1.08×	3.95
Monza to lead by 2 at any time	14.9%	10.5%	20.1%	0.52×	9.53
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.1%	10.5%	14.5%	0.72×	9.56
Lazio to lead by 3 at any time	9.2%	6.7%	8.4%	0.80×	14.85
Monza to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	59.76

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio most corners	44.7%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Monza most corners	43.4%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.3%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.4%	83.4%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
1-3 goals	69.1%	68.8%	67.7%	1.02×	1.45
2-6 goals	67.4%	68.8%	71.7%	0.96×	1.45
2-5 goals	65.1%	68.8%	69.7%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.3%	59.1%	61.2%	0.97×	1.69
1-2 goals	48.4%	48.5%	44.7%	1.09×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.5%	48.3%	1.01×	2.06
3-6 goals	41.2%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.29
3-5 goals	38.9%	39.2%	44.6%	0.88×	2.55
3-4 goals	33.0%	35.2%	36.1%	0.98×	2.84
4-6 goals	20.4%	24.5%	23.5%	1.04×	4.09
4-5 goals	18.1%	18.8%	21.6%	0.87×	5.32
5-6 goals	8.1%	8.9%	10.6%	0.84×	11.25
7+ goals	1.1%	2.5%	1.0%	2.58×	39.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio never behind	46.6%	56.4%	49.1%	1.15×	1.77
Monza never behind	32.5%	36.5%	45.0%	0.81×	2.74

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.5%	57.5%	56.5%	1.02×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.5%	42.5%	43.5%	0.98×	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.9%	51.9%	50.9%	1.02×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.1%	48.1%	49.1%	0.98×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.6%	95.4%	97.0%	0.98×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.8%	92.3%	88.5%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	90.7%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	78.5%	77.4%	75.6%	1.02×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	68.5%	66.3%	72.5%	0.91×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	57.7%	58.6%	52.6%	1.12×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	42.3%	41.4%	47.4%	0.87×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	31.5%	33.7%	27.5%	1.23×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	21.5%	22.6%	24.4%	0.93×	4.42
Under 0.5 goals	9.3%	7.7%	8.0%	0.97×	12.92
Over 4.5 goals	9.2%	7.7%	11.5%	0.68×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	3.4%	4.6%	3.0%	1.55×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.4%	97.2%	96.8%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.5%	86.7%	86.8%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	72.8%	72.4%	68.3%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	57.3%	55.8%	63.3%	0.88×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	42.7%	44.2%	36.7%	1.21×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.2%	27.6%	31.7%	0.87×	3.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.5%	13.3%	13.2%	1.01×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.6%	2.8%	3.2%	0.87×	35.68
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.8%	1.0%	2.78×	35.75

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.0%	92.6%	91.6%	1.01×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.8%	68.7%	70.8%	0.97×	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.8%	68.6%	65.9%	1.04×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.2%	31.4%	34.1%	0.92×	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.2%	31.3%	29.2%	1.07×	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.0%	7.4%	8.4%	0.89×	13.45

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	85.4%	82.3%	1.04×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.9%	77.4%	78.4%	0.99×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.8%	62.2%	56.8%	1.10×	1.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.2%	37.8%	43.2%	0.87×	2.65
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.1%	22.6%	21.6%	1.05×	4.43
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	14.6%	17.7%	0.82×	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza not to score in both halves	84.9%	84.2%	78.6%	1.07×	1.19
Lazio not to score in both halves	78.1%	78.2%	76.0%	1.03×	1.28
Lazio to score in both halves	21.9%	21.8%	24.0%	0.91×	4.58
Monza to score in both halves	15.1%	15.8%	21.4%	0.74×	6.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	47.4%	50.7%	49.0%	1.03×	1.97
Only Lazio scores	26.7%	26.0%	22.5%	1.15×	3.84
Only Monza scores	16.6%	16.0%	20.7%	0.77×	6.24
Neither team scores	9.3%	7.1%	8.0%	0.89×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	24.9%	25.2%	0.98×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	22.1%	22.6%	19.6%	1.15×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	20.7%	22.6%	23.2%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	12.3%	12.1%	13.1%	0.93×	8.26
Exactly 0 goals	9.3%	7.6%	8.0%	0.95×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.4%	4.5%	3.0%	1.51×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.2%	36.8%	1.01×	2.69
No goals in 1st half	33.2%	35.9%	34.1%	1.05×	2.78
2 goals in 1st half	20.2%	21.4%	20.9%	1.02×	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	10.0%	7.4%	8.4%	0.89×	13.45

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	36.2%	40.8%	43.2%	0.94×	2.45
1 goal in 2nd half	35.7%	40.7%	35.3%	1.15×	2.46
No goals in 2nd half	28.1%	29.8%	21.6%	1.38×	3.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza not to win both halves	94.8%	94.2%	91.4%	1.03×	1.06
Lazio not to win both halves	89.6%	88.2%	90.1%	0.98×	1.13
Lazio to win both halves	10.4%	11.8%	9.9%	1.20×	8.49
Monza to win both halves	5.2%	5.8%	8.6%	0.68×	17.12

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win either half	58.1%	59.1%	53.1%	1.11×	1.69
Monza to win neither half	56.2%	59.0%	51.5%	1.15×	1.69
Monza to win either half	43.8%	41.0%	48.5%	0.84×	2.44
Lazio to win neither half	41.9%	40.9%	46.9%	0.87×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza not to win to nil	83.4%	83.1%	79.3%	1.05×	1.20
Lazio not to win to nil	73.3%	75.4%	77.5%	0.97×	1.33
Lazio to win to nil	26.7%	24.6%	22.5%	1.09×	4.06
Monza to win to nil	16.6%	16.9%	20.7%	0.82×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.4%	27.9%	26.7%	1.04×	3.58
Lazio by 1	23.5%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
Monza by 1	17.8%	17.0%	19.7%	0.86×	5.87
Lazio by 2	13.1%	11.8%	9.7%	1.21×	8.51
Monza by 2	7.5%	7.2%	8.6%	0.83×	13.89
Lazio by 3+	7.6%	7.2%	7.5%	0.96×	13.89
Monza by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	5.7%	0.48×	36.69

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Lazio 2.22 xGMonza 1.34 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lazio attacking right Monza attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
2'	Lazio	Nuno Tavares	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Tijjani Noslin
4'	Lazio	Tijjani Noslin	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Davide Frattesi
9'	Lazio	Kenneth Taylor	0.10	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Romano Floriani
13'	Lazio	Mattia Zaccagni	0.04	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
17'	Lazio	Davide Frattesi	0.07	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Mattia Zaccagni
19'	Monza	Ebenezer Akinsanmiro	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Eddy Kouadio
22'	Lazio	Davide Frattesi	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Romano Floriani
22'	Lazio	Gustav Isaksen	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Tijjani Noslin
23'	Lazio	Gustav Isaksen	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Nuno Tavares
24'	Monza	Samuele Birindelli	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Cyril Ngonge
25'	Lazio	Kenneth Taylor	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Tijjani Noslin
27'	Monza	Samuele Birindelli	0.01	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
33'	Monza	Exequiel Zeballos	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Andrea Carboni
33'	Monza	Samuele Birindelli	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
37'	Lazio	Nuno Tavares	0.03	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
45'	Monza	Dany Mota	0.06	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Samuele Birindelli
45'	Monza	Saba Goglichidze	0.49	From Corner	—	Goal	Dany Mota
49'	Monza	Dany Mota	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Ricardo Mangas
54'	Monza	Samuele Birindelli	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Dany Mota
55'	Monza	Gustavo Varela	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Ricardo Mangas
56'	Monza	Dany Mota	0.08	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Samuele Birindelli
56'	Monza	Dany Mota	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
65'	Lazio	Romano Floriani	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Reda Belahyane
76'	Lazio	Reda Belahyane	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
81'	Monza	Yvan Maye	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
82'	Lazio	Mattia Zaccagni	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
85'	Lazio	Gustav Isaksen	0.38	Open Play	Left Foot	Shot On Post	—
87'	Lazio	Andrea Pinamonti	0.65	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Alfonso
88'	Monza	Dany Mota	0.04	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Adam Bakoune
89'	Lazio	Gustav Isaksen	0.44	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Andrea Pinamonti
89'	Lazio	Romano Floriani	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—

Players

Monza

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Samuele Birindelli DMR	90	0	0	4	2	0.23	0.14	0.37
Gustavo Varela FW	90	0	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.23
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC	90	0	0	1	1	0.05	0.09	0.21
Eddy Kouadio DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.05	0.23
Noel Törnqvist GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.03
Ricardo Mangas DML	72	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.20	0.23
Saba Goglichidze Sub	54	1	0	1	0	0.49	0.00	0.00
Exequiel Zeballos AMC	48	0	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.08
Andrea Carboni DC	48	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.08	0.11
Michael Folorunsho MC	48	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Dany Mota Sub	42	0	1	5	2	0.40	0.58	0.35
Yvan Maye Sub	42	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.20
Manga Foe Ondoa Sub	42	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Cyril Ngonge AMC	36	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.11
Lorenzo Lucchesi DC	34	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Adam Bakoune Sub	18	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.04

Lazio

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Gustav Isaksen FWR	90	1	0	4	0	0.94	0.00	1.11
Kenneth Taylor MC	90	0	0	2	0	0.16	0.00	1.14
Mattia Zaccagni FWL	90	0	0	2	1	0.10	0.07	0.97
Romano Floriani DR	90	0	0	2	2	0.02	0.20	0.96
Reda Belahyane MC	90	0	0	1	1	0.02	0.02	0.61
Christos Mandas GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.24
Tijjani Noslin FW	77	0	2	1	3	0.12	0.16	0.54
Nuno Tavares DL	77	1	0	2	1	0.05	0.03	0.29
Davide Frattesi MC	62	0	0	2	1	0.16	0.12	0.45
Oliver Provstgaard DC	62	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.12
Danilho Doekhi DC	55	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.06
Diogo Leite Sub	35	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Josip Sutalo Sub	28	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.09
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub	28	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.52
Andrea Pinamonti Sub	13	1	0	1	1	0.65	0.44	1.16
Alfonso Sub	13	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.65	1.09

Lazio v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Lazio

Why the draw is live

Why Monza can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Monza

Lazio

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