Lazio v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Lazio

13:00 UTC

Monza

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 797h before kick-off

Lazio win

51.0%

model 50.4%

Draw

27.2%

model 25.5%

Monza win

21.9%

model 24.1%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 12.2%
1-1 12.1%
2-0 9.5%
2-1 9.4%
0-0 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.6%	Under 2.5	53.4%
BTTS yes	49.5%	BTTS no	50.5%
Lazio 1+	78.8%	Lazio 2+	45.9%
Monza 1+	62.8%	Monza 2+	26.0%

Expected goals 1.55 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

88/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Lazio (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 39%

51.5% fair odds 1.94

strong signal · 1020 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 84%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Lazio carry the stronger rating, 1625 Elo against 1578.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
At home Lazio average 1.13 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lazio have an estimated 51.0% win probability, against 27.2% for the draw and 21.9% for Monza. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.55 for Lazio and 0.99 for Monza.

Why Lazio

Lazio carry the stronger rating, 1625 Elo against 1578. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. At home Lazio average 1.13 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Monza can win

Nothing in the data singles out Monza.

Key players

Lazio's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mattia Zaccagni (0.39), Davide Frattesi (0.30), Matteo Cancellieri (0.24). Monza's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gustavo Varela (0.42), Dany Mota (0.29), Ricardo Mangas (0.25).

Availability

1 of Lazio's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Lazio's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Monza's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Monza's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lazio: 48% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Monza: 41% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.31 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Lazio are the model's most likely outcome at 51.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.2%. Confidence 88/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lazio have scored 13 from 14.4 expected and conceded 12 from 12.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWDWLLWWWW last 10 scored 13 from 14.4 xG conceded 12 from 12.1 xG

Monza are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLWLLLLD last 10 scored 7 from 11.3 xG conceded 22 from 16.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	502524	1.55–0.99	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	572419	1.72–0.88	1-0 13%	48%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win	50.4%	51.7%	39.4%	1.31×	1.94
Draw	25.5%	27.6%	26.8%	1.03×	3.63
Monza to win	24.1%	22.2%	34.0%	0.65×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & not both score	29.3%	26.4%	22.6%	1.17×	3.79
Lazio & both teams score	21.1%	22.6%	16.9%	1.33×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	17.6%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.63
Monza & not both score	13.3%	12.2%	20.8%	0.58×	8.22
Monza & both teams score	10.8%	12.1%	13.3%	0.92×	8.24
Draw & not both score	7.9%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.66

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & over 1.5	38.1%	37.5%	29.0%	1.29×	2.66
Lazio & under 3.5	36.0%	37.5%	29.4%	1.27×	2.67
Lazio & over 2.5	28.7%	25.5%	22.5%	1.14×	3.92
Lazio & under 2.5	21.7%	21.5%	17.0%	1.26×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	20.0%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	20.0%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Monza & under 3.5	18.9%	17.6%	26.6%	0.66×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	17.6%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
Monza & over 1.5	16.3%	17.6%	24.6%	0.71×	5.70
Lazio & over 3.5	14.4%	12.7%	10.1%	1.26×	7.86
Monza & over 2.5	12.5%	12.7%	18.1%	0.70×	7.86
Lazio & under 1.5	12.2%	12.7%	10.5%	1.21×	7.86
Monza & under 2.5	11.7%	12.7%	16.0%	0.79×	7.87
Draw & under 1.5	7.9%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.41
Monza & under 1.5	7.8%	7.5%	9.5%	0.79×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	5.5%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Draw & over 3.5	5.5%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Monza & over 3.5	5.2%	7.5%	7.4%	1.00×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1UP)	63.9%	64.0%	54.7%	1.17×	1.56
Monza (1UP)	40.7%	43.3%	51.1%	0.85×	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2UP)	50.4%	53.7%	41.0%	1.31×	1.86
Monza (2UP)	24.1%	21.2%	36.5%	0.58×	4.71

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win 2nd half	51.1%	48.6%	34.7%	1.40×	2.06
2nd half drawn	35.4%	37.4%	35.9%	1.04×	2.67
Monza to win 2nd half	13.5%	10.8%	29.5%	0.37×	9.26

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (+2.5)	89.3%	89.0%	92.4%	0.96×	1.12
Lazio (+0.5)	75.9%	78.5%	66.0%	1.19×	1.27
Monza (+1.5)	74.0%	73.1%	83.0%	0.88×	1.37
Lazio (-0.5)	50.4%	51.5%	39.4%	1.31×	1.94
Monza (+0.5)	49.6%	48.5%	60.6%	0.80×	2.06
Lazio (-1.5)	26.0%	26.9%	17.0%	1.58×	3.72
Monza (-0.5)	24.1%	21.5%	34.0%	0.63×	4.65
Lazio (-2.5)	10.7%	11.0%	7.6%	1.45×	9.13

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede	78.8%	76.1%	71.1%	1.07×	1.31
Monza clean sheet	21.2%	23.9%	28.9%	0.83×	4.19

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 1st half	58.4%	60.3%	58.8%	1.03×	1.66
Monza to concede in 1st half	41.6%	39.7%	41.2%	0.96×	2.52

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 6.5 corners	85.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Monza under 5.5 corners	76.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Monza over 2.5 corners	69.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Monza under 4.5 corners	64.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Monza over 3.5 corners	51.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Monza under 3.5 corners	48.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Monza over 4.5 corners	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Monza under 2.5 corners	30.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Monza over 5.5 corners	23.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Monza over 6.5 corners	14.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 3.5 goals	98.2%	97.3%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Monza under 2.5 goals	92.2%	92.6%	88.4%	1.05×	1.08
Monza under 1.5 goals	74.0%	72.0%	65.4%	1.10×	1.39
Monza over 0.5 goals	62.8%	64.2%	69.3%	0.93×	1.56
Monza under 0.5 goals	37.2%	35.8%	30.7%	1.17×	2.79
Monza over 1.5 goals	26.0%	28.0%	34.6%	0.81×	3.57
Monza over 2.5 goals	7.8%	7.4%	11.6%	0.63×	13.57
Monza over 3.5 goals	1.8%	2.7%	2.9%	0.91×	37.65

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 1st half	87.4%	87.6%	90.2%	0.97×	1.14
Monza under 0.5 in 1st half	54.2%	51.0%	59.0%	0.87×	1.96
Monza over 0.5 in 1st half	45.8%	49.0%	41.0%	1.19×	2.04
Monza over 1.5 in 1st half	12.6%	12.4%	9.8%	1.26×	8.06

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (away no bet)	66.4%	71.5%	59.5%	1.20×	1.40
Draw (away no bet)	33.6%	28.5%	40.5%	0.70×	3.51

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza even goals	56.9%	57.9%	55.7%	1.04×	1.73
Monza odd goals	43.1%	42.1%	44.3%	0.95×	2.38

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.1%	86.4%	87.2%	0.99×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.9%	13.6%	12.8%	1.07×	7.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.5%	56.0%	59.6%	0.94×	1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.5%	44.0%	40.4%	1.09×	2.27

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.8%	52.9%	52.8%	1.00×	1.89
Lazio to score 2+ in a row	38.7%	37.4%	31.1%	1.20×	2.67
Monza to score 2+ in a row	18.9%	17.8%	27.7%	0.65×	5.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.5%	17.8%	17.3%	1.03×	5.61
Lazio to score 3+ in a row	14.4%	12.2%	9.7%	1.26×	8.17
Monza to score 3+ in a row	4.3%	3.4%	7.7%	0.44×	29.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio corners (+3.5)	86.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Monza corners (+3.5)	82.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lazio corners (+2.5)	79.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Monza corners (+2.5)	74.5%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Lazio corners (+1.5)	70.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Monza corners (+1.5)	64.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Lazio corners (-1.5)	35.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Monza corners (-1.5)	29.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Lazio corners (-2.5)	25.5%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Monza corners (-2.5)	20.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Lazio corners (-3.5)	17.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Monza corners (-3.5)	13.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	57.3%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
9-11 corners	25.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	17.0%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.3%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	83.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	76.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	67.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	53.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	46.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	32.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 11.5 corners	17.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	11.7%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.2%	11.6%	10.5%	1.11×	8.63
1-1	12.1%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.63
2-0	9.5%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.74
2-1	9.4%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.74
0-0	7.9%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.74
0-1	7.8%	7.3%	9.5%	0.77×	13.74
1-2	6.0%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.75
3-0	4.9%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.39
2-2	4.6%	1.8%	6.1%	0.30×	55.39
3-1	4.9%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.39
0-2	3.9%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.41
Any other score	2.4%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.45
2-3	1.5%	1.8%	3.0%	0.59×	55.47
3-2	2.4%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.45
4-0	1.9%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.46
4-1	1.9%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.46
0-3	1.3%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.48
1-3	2.0%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.46
1-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.50
2-4	0.4%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.50
3-3	0.8%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.49
3-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50
4-2	0.9%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.49
4-3	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51
0-4	0.3%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza leading at HT (DNB)	54.2%	55.4%	49.9%	1.11×	1.81
Lazio leading at HT (DNB)	45.8%	44.6%	50.1%	0.89×	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw (1X)	75.9%	77.8%	66.0%	1.18×	1.29
Lazio or Monza (12)	74.5%	72.4%	73.2%	0.99×	1.38
Monza or draw (X2)	49.6%	48.3%	60.6%	0.80×	2.07

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw at HT	73.9%	71.5%	72.5%	0.99×	1.40
Lazio or draw at HT	69.1%	66.3%	72.6%	0.91×	1.51
Lazio or Monza at HT	57.0%	58.2%	54.8%	1.06×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw (1UP)	75.9%	84.5%	71.3%	1.18×	1.18
Monza or draw (1UP)	49.6%	55.2%	66.3%	0.83×	1.81

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw in 2nd half	86.5%	89.2%	70.5%	1.27×	1.12
Lazio or Monza in 2nd half	64.6%	62.6%	64.1%	0.98×	1.60
Monza or draw in 2nd half	48.9%	51.4%	65.3%	0.79×	1.95

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.1%	59.4%	64.4%	0.92×	1.68
Neither half drawn	36.9%	40.6%	35.6%	1.14×	2.47

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (DNB)	67.6%	68.4%	53.7%	1.27×	1.46
Monza (DNB)	32.4%	31.6%	46.3%	0.68×	3.16

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score first	56.2%	62.0%	47.7%	1.30×	1.61
Monza to score first	35.9%	37.1%	44.2%	0.84×	2.69
No goal scored	7.9%	6.3%	8.2%	0.76×	15.96

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.5%	52.8%	51.4%	1.03×	1.89
Both teams to score	49.5%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.3%	42.2%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
Both score & over 2.5	37.4%	37.4%	36.9%	1.02×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.53
Not both score & over 2.5	9.2%	8.7%	10.5%	0.83×	11.44

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.1%	85.6%	86.9%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.9%	14.4%	13.1%	1.10×	6.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	80.0%	76.8%	74.7%	1.03×	1.30
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.0%	23.2%	25.3%	0.92×	4.30

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.8%	59.6%	63.1%	0.94×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	16.1%	18.1%	20.5%	0.89×	5.52
Both score 1st half only	15.3%	18.1%	11.7%	1.54×	5.54
Both score in both halves	3.8%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.80

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.9%	83.1%	83.5%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.1%	16.9%	16.5%	1.02×	5.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.3%	54.6%	51.8%	1.06×	1.83
A half without a goal	48.7%	45.4%	48.2%	0.94×	2.20

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
0-1 goals	27.9%	27.7%	27.9%	0.99×	3.61
4-6 goals	23.6%	22.8%	23.5%	0.97×	4.38
7+ goals	1.5%	1.9%	0.9%	2.19×	51.72

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score exactly 0	37.2%	34.6%	30.7%	1.13×	2.89
Monza to score exactly 1	36.8%	34.6%	34.8%	0.99×	2.89
Monza to score exactly 2	18.2%	18.4%	23.1%	0.80×	5.44
Monza to score 3+	7.8%	7.6%	11.6%	0.66×	13.08

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score exactly 1	32.9%	30.6%	32.3%	0.95×	3.27
Lazio to score exactly 2	25.5%	27.0%	24.6%	1.10×	3.70
Lazio to score exactly 0	21.2%	22.9%	28.9%	0.79×	4.36
Lazio to score 3+	20.4%	22.9%	14.4%	1.59×	4.36

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.0%	41.8%	45.2%	0.93×	2.39
Monza leading at HT	30.9%	33.7%	27.4%	1.23×	2.97
Lazio leading at HT	26.1%	28.5%	27.5%	1.03×	3.51

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio -1: 2	49.6%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Lazio -1: 1	26.0%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Lazio -1: X	24.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:1)	49.6%	48.4%	60.6%	0.80×	2.07
Lazio (0:1)	26.0%	26.2%	17.0%	1.54×	3.81
Draw (0:1)	24.3%	24.5%	22.5%	1.09×	4.09

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:2)	74.0%	73.3%	83.0%	0.88×	1.36
Draw (0:2)	15.4%	16.2%	9.6%	1.69×	6.16
Lazio (0:2)	10.7%	11.7%	7.6%	1.54×	8.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:3)	89.3%	88.5%	92.4%	0.96×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	7.1%	6.9%	4.5%	1.52×	14.47
Lazio (0:3)	3.6%	2.3%	3.2%	0.74×	42.82

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:4)	96.4%	98.0%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.6%	1.3%	2.3%	0.55×	80.03
Lazio (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	80.84

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1:0)	75.9%	77.9%	66.0%	1.18×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	15.5%	16.3%	19.9%	0.82×	6.14
Monza (1:0)	8.6%	8.6%	14.1%	0.61×	11.63

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2:0)	91.4%	91.6%	85.9%	1.07×	1.09
Draw (2:0)	6.2%	6.6%	8.5%	0.78×	15.20
Monza (2:0)	2.4%	2.7%	5.8%	0.46×	37.23

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.3%	49.3%	46.6%	1.06×	2.03
Halves equal	26.5%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
1st half highest scoring	31.1%	25.5%	26.8%	0.95×	3.92

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede	62.8%	66.1%	69.3%	0.95×	1.51
Lazio clean sheet	37.2%	33.9%	30.7%	1.11×	2.95

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio clean sheet in 1st half	54.2%	51.0%	59.0%	0.87×	1.96
Lazio to concede in 1st half	45.8%	49.0%	41.0%	1.19×	2.04

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 6.5 corners	82.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lazio over 2.5 corners	72.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Lazio under 5.5 corners	72.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Lazio under 4.5 corners	59.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Lazio over 3.5 corners	56.4%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Lazio under 3.5 corners	43.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Lazio over 4.5 corners	40.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Lazio over 5.5 corners	27.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Lazio under 2.5 corners	27.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Lazio over 6.5 corners	17.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 3.5 goals	92.8%	92.1%	95.5%	0.96×	1.09
Lazio under 2.5 goals	79.6%	76.8%	85.6%	0.90×	1.30
Lazio over 0.5 goals	78.8%	76.8%	71.1%	1.08×	1.30
Lazio under 1.5 goals	54.1%	52.8%	61.1%	0.86×	1.89
Lazio over 1.5 goals	45.9%	47.2%	38.9%	1.21×	2.12
Lazio under 0.5 goals	21.2%	23.2%	28.9%	0.80×	4.31
Lazio over 2.5 goals	20.4%	23.2%	14.4%	1.61×	4.31
Lazio over 3.5 goals	7.2%	7.9%	4.5%	1.74×	12.66

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 1st half	89.8%	87.9%	90.2%	0.98×	1.14
Lazio under 0.5 in 1st half	58.4%	60.1%	58.8%	1.02×	1.66
Lazio over 0.5 in 1st half	41.6%	39.9%	41.2%	0.97×	2.51
Lazio over 1.5 in 1st half	10.2%	12.1%	9.8%	1.23×	8.27

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (home no bet)	48.6%	51.4%	55.9%	0.92×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	51.4%	48.6%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio even goals	52.2%	50.3%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
Lazio odd goals	47.8%	49.7%	43.4%	1.15×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.6%	30.5%	34.3%	0.89×	3.28
HT 0-1	19.4%	18.9%	18.4%	1.03×	5.28
HT 1-0	17.0%	18.9%	18.3%	1.03×	5.29
HT 1-1	10.4%	11.2%	10.5%	1.07×	8.96
HT 0-2	5.9%	7.7%	5.4%	1.41×	13.02
HT 2-0	4.6%	2.5%	5.6%	0.45×	39.74
Any other HT score	4.1%	2.5%	3.0%	0.83×	39.76
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.82
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.5%	2.3%	1.10×	39.84
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.5%	0.6%	3.96×	39.95

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio at HT / Lazio at FT	23.3%	21.5%	21.3%	1.01×	4.66
Draw at HT / Lazio at FT	21.9%	21.4%	15.8%	1.36×	4.67
Monza at HT / Monza at FT	17.8%	16.8%	19.2%	0.87×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.2%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.97
Monza at HT / Draw at FT	7.9%	6.6%	5.9%	1.11×	15.20
Draw at HT / Monza at FT	5.8%	6.6%	13.0%	0.50×	15.25
Monza at HT / Lazio at FT	5.1%	6.5%	2.5%	2.59×	15.27
Lazio at HT / Draw at FT	2.4%	3.4%	4.4%	0.77×	29.41
Lazio at HT / Monza at FT	0.5%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.49

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score last	56.2%	56.4%	48.4%	1.17×	1.77
Monza to score last	35.9%	37.9%	43.6%	0.87×	2.64
No goal scored	7.9%	6.3%	8.2%	0.76×	15.96

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.1%	93.7%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
Lazio to lead by 1 at any time	63.9%	64.5%	54.7%	1.18×	1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.6%	42.2%	42.6%	0.99×	2.37
Monza to lead by 1 at any time	40.7%	42.0%	51.1%	0.82×	2.38
Lazio to lead by 2 at any time	31.8%	32.0%	22.9%	1.40×	3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.9%	17.6%	14.5%	1.21×	5.67
Monza to lead by 2 at any time	12.9%	11.3%	20.1%	0.56×	8.82
Lazio to lead by 3 at any time	12.7%	11.3%	8.3%	1.36×	8.83
Monza to lead by 3 at any time	3.3%	2.6%	6.3%	0.42×	38.17

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio most corners	47.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Monza most corners	40.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.7%	81.5%	80.7%	1.01×	1.23
2-6 goals	70.6%	73.6%	71.3%	1.03×	1.36
2-5 goals	67.6%	68.3%	69.4%	0.98×	1.46
1-3 goals	67.0%	68.3%	67.7%	1.01×	1.46
2-4 goals	60.7%	62.2%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
1-2 goals	45.5%	48.0%	44.7%	1.07×	2.08
3-6 goals	45.1%	48.0%	46.5%	1.03×	2.08
3-5 goals	42.2%	43.6%	44.6%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.2%	38.8%	36.1%	1.07×	2.58
4-6 goals	23.6%	24.7%	23.5%	1.05×	4.04
4-5 goals	20.6%	24.7%	21.6%	1.14×	4.05
5-6 goals	9.9%	8.9%	10.5%	0.85×	11.25
7+ goals	1.5%	2.0%	0.9%	2.28×	49.70

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio never behind	51.4%	61.2%	48.9%	1.25×	1.63
Monza never behind	28.2%	31.0%	45.3%	0.68×	3.22

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.0%	55.3%	56.8%	0.97×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	45.0%	44.7%	43.2%	1.04×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.1%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.9%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.5%	95.6%	97.2%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.1%	92.9%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.6%	88.8%	88.8%	1.00×	1.13
Under 3.5 goals	74.9%	72.5%	75.8%	0.96×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.4%	53.5%	52.8%	1.01×	1.87
Over 2.5 goals	46.6%	46.5%	47.2%	0.98×	2.15
Under 1.5 goals	27.9%	27.6%	27.9%	0.99×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	25.1%	27.5%	24.2%	1.14×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.4%	11.2%	11.2%	1.00×	8.91
Under 0.5 goals	7.9%	7.1%	8.2%	0.86×	14.17
Over 5.5 goals	4.5%	4.4%	2.8%	1.58×	22.79

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.2%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.8%	88.1%	87.1%	1.01×	1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.0%	68.1%	68.5%	0.99×	1.47
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	62.6%	62.4%	62.9%	0.99×	1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	37.5%	37.6%	37.1%	1.01×	2.66
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.0%	31.9%	31.5%	1.01×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.2%	11.9%	12.9%	0.92×	8.39
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.8%	2.8%	3.0%	0.92×	35.71
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.8%	0.9%	3.07×	36.22

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.0%	88.1%	91.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.4%	68.6%	65.7%	1.04×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.0%	68.6%	70.8%	0.97×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.0%	31.4%	29.2%	1.08×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.6%	31.4%	34.3%	0.91×	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.0%	11.9%	8.1%	1.47×	8.42

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.6%	82.1%	82.3%	1.00×	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.1%	80.2%	77.9%	1.03×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.6%	54.3%	56.8%	0.96×	1.84
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.4%	45.7%	43.2%	1.06×	2.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.9%	19.8%	22.1%	0.90×	5.05
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.4%	17.9%	17.7%	1.01×	5.59

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza not to score in both halves	85.6%	84.5%	78.8%	1.07×	1.18
Lazio not to score in both halves	73.5%	70.4%	76.3%	0.92×	1.42
Lazio to score in both halves	26.5%	29.6%	23.7%	1.25×	3.38
Monza to score in both halves	14.4%	15.5%	21.2%	0.73×	6.43

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.5%	49.6%	48.6%	1.02×	2.02
Only Lazio scores	29.3%	25.8%	22.6%	1.14×	3.88
Only Monza scores	13.3%	10.8%	20.8%	0.52×	9.24
Neither team scores	7.9%	6.7%	8.2%	0.81×	15.01

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.4%	24.7%	25.0%	0.99×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	20.0%	21.5%	19.8%	1.09×	4.65
Exactly 4 goals	13.7%	12.4%	13.1%	0.94×	8.08
Exactly 0 goals	7.9%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.9%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.5%	4.4%	2.8%	1.58×	22.84

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.4%	46.2%	43.2%	1.07×	2.16
1 goal in 2nd half	34.6%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	24.9%	18.6%	22.1%	0.84×	5.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza not to win both halves	95.8%	96.6%	91.4%	1.06×	1.04
Lazio not to win both halves	86.7%	87.5%	90.3%	0.97×	1.14
Lazio to win both halves	13.3%	12.5%	9.7%	1.28×	8.01
Monza to win both halves	4.2%	3.4%	8.6%	0.39×	29.80

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win either half	63.9%	63.7%	52.5%	1.21×	1.57
Monza to win neither half	59.7%	59.5%	51.6%	1.15×	1.68
Monza to win either half	40.3%	40.5%	48.4%	0.84×	2.47
Lazio to win neither half	36.1%	36.3%	47.5%	0.77×	2.75

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza not to win to nil	86.7%	88.2%	79.2%	1.11×	1.13
Lazio not to win to nil	70.7%	74.2%	77.4%	0.96×	1.35
Lazio to win to nil	29.3%	25.8%	22.6%	1.14×	3.88
Monza to win to nil	13.3%	11.8%	20.8%	0.56×	8.51

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.5%	28.0%	26.8%	1.05×	3.57
Lazio by 1	24.3%	23.8%	22.5%	1.06×	4.21
Monza by 1	15.5%	17.0%	19.9%	0.85×	5.90
Lazio by 2	15.4%	17.0%	9.6%	1.77×	5.90
Lazio by 3+	10.7%	11.8%	7.6%	1.56×	8.45
Monza by 2	6.2%	7.1%	8.5%	0.84×	14.13
Monza by 3+	2.4%	2.8%	5.8%	0.49×	35.44