Lazio v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lazio

14:00 UTC

Parma Calcio 1913

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 75h before kick-off

Lazio win

55.5%

model 55.2%

Draw

22.2%

model 23.2%

Parma Calcio 1913 win

22.2%

model 21.7%

562222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.0%
1-0 10.6%
2-1 9.8%
2-0 9.5%
0-1 6.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.6%	Under 2.5	46.4%
BTTS yes	53.6%	BTTS no	46.4%
Lazio 1+	83.3%	Lazio 2+	53.4%
Parma Calcio 1913 1+	64.4%	Parma Calcio 1913 2+	27.6%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Lazio (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 40%

57.0% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lazio over 0.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 72%

82.7% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Lazio carry the stronger rating, 1690 Elo against 1438.
Lazio have created 1.44 xG a match over their last five while Parma Calcio 1913 have allowed 2.08.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
At home Lazio average 1.64 xG a match.

Risk factors

Lazio have scored 2.40 a match from 1.44 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lazio have an estimated 55.5% win probability, against 22.2% for the draw and 22.2% for Parma Calcio 1913. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.79 for Lazio and 1.03 for Parma Calcio 1913.

Why Lazio

Lazio carry the stronger rating, 1690 Elo against 1438. Lazio have created 1.44 xG a match over their last five while Parma Calcio 1913 have allowed 2.08. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. At home Lazio average 1.64 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Parma Calcio 1913 can win

Parma Calcio 1913 have created 0.86 xG a match over their last five while Lazio have allowed 1.42. Away from home Parma Calcio 1913 average 0.62 xG a match.

Key players

Lazio's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mattia Zaccagni (0.39), Davide Frattesi (0.28), Daniel Maldini (0.23). Parma Calcio 1913's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateo Pellegrino (0.33), Gabriel Strefezza (0.23), Adrián Bernabé (0.19).

Availability

27% of Lazio's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Parma Calcio 1913's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Parma Calcio 1913's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lazio: 50% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Parma Calcio 1913: 43% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Lazio are the model's most likely outcome at 55.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lazio are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWDWWW last 10 scored 16 from 14.4 xG conceded 10 from 14.2 xG

Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWLLDLWLL last 10 scored 7 from 8.6 xG conceded 17 from 20.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	552322	1.79–1.03	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	532522	1.61–0.94	1-0 13%	47%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win	55.8%	54.0%	40.0%	1.35×	1.85
Draw	25.3%	27.9%	26.4%	1.05×	3.59
Parma Calcio 1913 to win	18.9%	19.4%	33.7%	0.58×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & not both score	35.7%	33.3%	22.6%	1.47×	3.01
Lazio & both teams score	20.0%	21.8%	17.5%	1.24×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	15.9%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
Parma Calcio 1913 & not both score	11.4%	13.3%	20.6%	0.65×	7.54
Draw & not both score	9.4%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.00
Parma Calcio 1913 & both teams score	7.5%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & under 3.5	41.6%	40.3%	29.6%	1.36×	2.48
Lazio & over 1.5	41.0%	40.2%	29.9%	1.34×	2.49
Lazio & over 2.5	29.5%	26.1%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Lazio & under 2.5	26.3%	26.1%	16.8%	1.55×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	21.1%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.1%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	15.9%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 3.5	15.9%	18.0%	26.3%	0.68×	5.56
Lazio & under 1.5	14.7%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Lazio & over 3.5	14.2%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 1.5	11.5%	12.8%	24.6%	0.52×	7.79
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 2.5	10.4%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	9.4%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 2.5	8.5%	7.9%	18.1%	0.44×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.9%	0.70×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.9%	0.70×	20.81
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 3.5	3.1%	4.8%	7.5%	0.64×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1UP)	67.1%	70.1%	55.3%	1.27×	1.43
Parma Calcio 1913 (1UP)	34.0%	33.1%	50.5%	0.66×	3.02

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2UP)	55.8%	54.9%	41.8%	1.31×	1.82
Parma Calcio 1913 (2UP)	18.9%	17.4%	36.2%	0.48×	5.75

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win 2nd half	53.6%	51.7%	35.0%	1.48×	1.94
2nd half drawn	32.5%	34.3%	35.0%	0.98×	2.91
Parma Calcio 1913 to win 2nd half	13.9%	11.5%	30.2%	0.38×	8.68

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 in 2nd half	93.2%	92.1%	85.1%	1.08×	1.09
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 in 2nd half	65.4%	70.0%	50.0%	1.40×	1.43
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 in 2nd half	34.6%	30.0%	50.0%	0.60×	3.33
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 in 2nd half	6.8%	7.9%	14.9%	0.53×	12.63

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.7%	70.8%	81.5%	0.87×	1.41
Lazio over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.8%	70.7%	53.7%	1.32×	1.41
Lazio under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.2%	29.3%	46.3%	0.63×	3.41
Lazio over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.3%	29.2%	18.5%	1.58×	3.42

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (+2.5)	87.5%	88.5%	92.3%	0.96×	1.13
Lazio (+0.5)	81.1%	82.5%	66.3%	1.24×	1.21
Parma Calcio 1913 (+1.5)	70.3%	73.6%	82.5%	0.89×	1.36
Lazio (-0.5)	55.8%	57.0%	40.0%	1.42×	1.75
Parma Calcio 1913 (+0.5)	44.2%	43.0%	60.0%	0.72×	2.33
Lazio (-1.5)	29.7%	26.4%	17.5%	1.50×	3.79
Parma Calcio 1913 (-0.5)	18.9%	17.5%	33.7%	0.52×	5.72
Lazio (-2.5)	12.5%	11.5%	7.7%	1.50×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede	79.2%	78.8%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet	20.8%	21.2%	28.4%	0.75×	4.72

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet in 1st half	64.4%	65.3%	57.9%	1.13×	1.53
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede in 1st half	35.6%	34.7%	42.1%	0.82×	2.88

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede in 2nd half	67.8%	65.9%	53.7%	1.23×	1.52
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet in 2nd half	32.2%	34.1%	46.3%	0.74×	2.93

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 6.5 corners	89.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Parma Calcio 1913 under 5.5 corners	81.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Parma Calcio 1913 under 4.5 corners	69.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Parma Calcio 1913 over 2.5 corners	63.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Parma Calcio 1913 under 3.5 corners	54.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Parma Calcio 1913 over 3.5 corners	45.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Parma Calcio 1913 under 2.5 corners	36.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Parma Calcio 1913 over 4.5 corners	30.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Parma Calcio 1913 over 5.5 corners	18.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Parma Calcio 1913 over 6.5 corners	11.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 3.5 goals	99.1%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Parma Calcio 1913 under 2.5 goals	95.3%	97.5%	88.1%	1.11×	1.03
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 goals	81.0%	81.4%	65.0%	1.25×	1.23
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 goals	54.9%	53.6%	69.6%	0.77×	1.87
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 goals	45.1%	46.4%	30.4%	1.53×	2.15
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 goals	19.0%	18.6%	35.0%	0.53×	5.39
Parma Calcio 1913 over 2.5 goals	4.7%	2.5%	11.9%	0.21×	39.79
Parma Calcio 1913 over 3.5 goals	0.9%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.99

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 in 1st half	94.6%	94.0%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 in 1st half	68.9%	69.5%	58.8%	1.18×	1.44
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 in 1st half	31.1%	30.5%	41.2%	0.74×	3.28
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 in 1st half	5.4%	6.0%	10.1%	0.60×	16.59

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 scores equally in both	52.5%	51.0%	43.4%	1.18×	1.96
Parma Calcio 1913 scores more in 2nd half	25.7%	26.2%	32.8%	0.80×	3.81
Parma Calcio 1913 scores more in 1st half	21.9%	22.0%	23.9%	0.92×	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (away no bet)	68.8%	66.4%	60.2%	1.10×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	31.2%	33.6%	39.8%	0.84×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 even goals	60.2%	59.0%	55.5%	1.06×	1.69
Parma Calcio 1913 odd goals	39.8%	41.0%	44.5%	0.92×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	91.0%	91.8%	87.3%	1.05×	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.0%	8.2%	12.7%	0.64×	12.19

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	56.6%	60.2%	60.2%	1.00×	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	43.4%	39.8%	39.8%	1.00×	2.51

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.5%	50.9%	53.4%	0.95×	1.97
Lazio to score 2+ in a row	40.6%	38.7%	31.7%	1.22×	2.59
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.3%	17.9%	0.91×	6.14
Lazio to score 3+ in a row	15.8%	16.2%	10.1%	1.61×	6.17
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 2+ in a row	13.4%	12.1%	27.8%	0.43×	8.29
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 3+ in a row	2.5%	2.6%	7.9%	0.32×	39.19

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio corners (+3.5)	92.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Lazio corners (+2.5)	87.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Lazio corners (+1.5)	80.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (+3.5)	70.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (+2.5)	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lazio corners (-1.5)	50.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (+1.5)	49.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Lazio corners (-2.5)	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lazio corners (-3.5)	29.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (-1.5)	19.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (-2.5)	12.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (-3.5)	7.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	50.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	22.3%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	60.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	60.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 8.5 corners	50.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	49.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	39.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	39.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	22.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	16.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	14.7%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.72
1-1	11.7%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
2-0	11.6%	11.5%	6.7%	1.70×	8.72
0-0	9.4%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.50
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
0-1	7.5%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
3-0	6.1%	7.4%	3.6%	2.05×	13.51
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.29
0-2	3.0%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.30
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-2	4.7%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.29
1-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-2	3.7%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	2.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.31
4-1	1.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2nd half DNB)	79.5%	79.9%	53.7%	1.49×	1.25
Parma Calcio 1913 (2nd half DNB)	20.5%	20.1%	46.3%	0.43×	4.97

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio leading at HT (DNB)	55.1%	57.0%	51.1%	1.12×	1.75
Parma Calcio 1913 leading at HT (DNB)	44.9%	43.0%	48.9%	0.88×	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw (1X)	81.1%	80.6%	66.3%	1.21×	1.24
Lazio or Parma Calcio 1913 (12)	74.7%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw (X2)	44.2%	46.0%	60.0%	0.77×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw at HT	78.4%	79.1%	72.8%	1.09×	1.26
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw at HT	73.5%	75.1%	71.6%	1.05×	1.33
Lazio or Parma Calcio 1913 at HT	48.0%	52.9%	55.4%	0.95×	1.89

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw (1UP)	81.1%	88.4%	71.6%	1.23×	1.13
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw (1UP)	44.2%	52.7%	65.5%	0.80×	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw in 2nd half	86.1%	88.5%	69.8%	1.27×	1.13
Lazio or Parma Calcio 1913 in 2nd half	67.5%	65.7%	65.0%	1.01×	1.52
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw in 2nd half	46.4%	48.3%	65.0%	0.74×	2.07

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	67.6%	68.3%	63.5%	1.08×	1.47
Neither half drawn	32.4%	31.7%	36.5%	0.87×	3.15

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (DNB)	74.6%	71.6%	54.3%	1.32×	1.40
Parma Calcio 1913 (DNB)	25.4%	28.4%	45.7%	0.62×	3.52

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score first	60.2%	64.4%	48.6%	1.33×	1.55
Parma Calcio 1913 to score first	30.5%	27.3%	43.6%	0.63×	3.67
No goal scored	9.4%	7.5%	7.9%	0.95×	13.30

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	56.5%	55.0%	50.8%	1.08×	1.82
Both teams to score	43.5%	45.0%	49.2%	0.92×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	46.1%	44.3%	40.1%	1.10×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	31.8%	34.5%	37.4%	0.92×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.7%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.4%	12.4%	10.8%	1.14×	8.10

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.1%	89.0%	86.5%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.9%	11.0%	13.5%	0.82×	9.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.6%	74.3%	74.9%	0.99×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.5%	25.7%	25.1%	1.02×	3.88

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	68.1%	63.4%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
Both score 2nd half only	20.9%	21.0%	20.3%	1.03×	4.76
Both score 1st half only	8.5%	6.8%	12.3%	0.56×	14.64
Both score in both halves	2.6%	4.9%	4.9%	0.99×	20.51

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.9%	85.6%	82.9%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	11.1%	14.4%	17.1%	0.85×	6.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	56.1%	57.3%	47.2%	1.21×	1.75
A goal in each half	43.9%	42.7%	52.8%	0.81×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.2%	48.4%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	31.5%	30.7%	27.0%	1.14×	3.25
4-6 goals	20.4%	22.9%	23.8%	0.96×	4.37
7+ goals	1.1%	1.8%	1.0%	1.91×	54.40

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 0	45.1%	42.8%	30.4%	1.41×	2.34
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.9%	34.7%	1.03×	2.78
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 2	14.3%	12.9%	23.2%	0.56×	7.75
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 3+	4.7%	4.6%	11.9%	0.39×	21.74

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score exactly 1	32.6%	32.6%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
Lazio to score exactly 2	25.7%	26.5%	24.8%	1.07×	3.77
Lazio to score 3+	20.9%	23.3%	15.0%	1.55×	4.29
Lazio to score exactly 0	20.8%	23.3%	28.4%	0.82×	4.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	52.0%	47.1%	44.6%	1.06×	2.12
Lazio leading at HT	26.5%	24.9%	28.4%	0.88×	4.02
Parma Calcio 1913 leading at HT	21.6%	20.9%	27.2%	0.77×	4.79

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio -1: 2	44.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Lazio -1: 1	29.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Lazio -1: X	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:1)	44.2%	42.7%	60.0%	0.71×	2.34
Lazio (0:1)	29.7%	27.1%	17.5%	1.54×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	26.1%	27.0%	22.6%	1.20×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:2)	70.3%	75.6%	82.5%	0.92×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	17.2%	15.3%	10.0%	1.53×	6.54
Lazio (0:2)	12.5%	11.0%	7.7%	1.43×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:3)	87.5%	90.6%	92.3%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.2%	5.8%	4.7%	1.24×	17.20
Lazio (0:3)	4.2%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:4)	95.8%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.0%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.76
Lazio (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	81.97

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1:0)	81.1%	81.3%	66.3%	1.23×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	13.2%	12.7%	19.4%	0.66×	7.87
Parma Calcio 1913 (1:0)	5.7%	6.9%	14.4%	0.48×	14.52

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2:0)	94.3%	94.0%	85.6%	1.10×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.4%	2.3%	8.7%	0.27×	43.55
Parma Calcio 1913 (2:0)	1.3%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.75

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.0%	50.3%	46.2%	1.09×	1.99
Halves equal	25.5%	26.2%	26.9%	0.97×	3.82
1st half highest scoring	19.5%	19.9%	27.0%	0.73×	5.03

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede	54.9%	53.3%	69.6%	0.77×	1.88
Lazio clean sheet	45.1%	46.7%	30.4%	1.54×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio clean sheet in 1st half	68.9%	69.8%	58.8%	1.19×	1.43
Lazio to concede in 1st half	31.1%	30.2%	41.2%	0.73×	3.32

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio clean sheet in 2nd half	65.4%	66.9%	50.0%	1.34×	1.49
Lazio to concede in 2nd half	34.6%	33.1%	50.0%	0.66×	3.03

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio over 2.5 corners	81.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lazio under 6.5 corners	70.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Lazio over 3.5 corners	68.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Lazio under 5.5 corners	58.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lazio over 4.5 corners	54.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Lazio under 4.5 corners	45.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Lazio over 5.5 corners	41.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lazio under 3.5 corners	31.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Lazio over 6.5 corners	29.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Lazio under 2.5 corners	18.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 3.5 goals	92.5%	92.2%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Lazio over 0.5 goals	79.2%	77.7%	71.6%	1.09×	1.29
Lazio under 2.5 goals	79.1%	77.7%	85.0%	0.91×	1.29
Lazio under 1.5 goals	53.4%	53.2%	60.3%	0.88×	1.88
Lazio over 1.5 goals	46.6%	46.8%	39.7%	1.18×	2.14
Lazio over 2.5 goals	20.9%	22.3%	15.0%	1.48×	4.49
Lazio under 0.5 goals	20.8%	22.3%	28.4%	0.78×	4.49
Lazio over 3.5 goals	7.5%	7.8%	4.7%	1.66×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 1st half	92.7%	94.8%	89.3%	1.06×	1.06
Lazio under 0.5 in 1st half	64.4%	65.0%	57.9%	1.12×	1.54
Lazio over 0.5 in 1st half	35.6%	35.0%	42.1%	0.83×	2.86
Lazio over 1.5 in 1st half	7.3%	5.2%	10.7%	0.49×	19.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio scores more in 2nd half	53.2%	58.2%	36.2%	1.61×	1.72
Lazio scores equally in both	32.5%	32.9%	41.7%	0.79×	3.04
Lazio scores more in 1st half	14.4%	14.4%	22.2%	0.65×	6.97

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.2%	56.4%	44.0%	1.28×	1.77
Parma Calcio 1913 (home no bet)	42.8%	43.6%	56.0%	0.78×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio even goals	52.2%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Lazio odd goals	47.8%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	44.4%	39.7%	33.8%	1.18×	2.52
HT 1-0	19.5%	18.6%	18.4%	1.01×	5.37
HT 0-1	16.5%	18.6%	18.1%	1.02×	5.39
HT 1-1	7.3%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.49
HT 2-0	4.3%	2.4%	5.8%	0.41×	42.00
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.08
HT 2-1	1.6%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.17
Any other HT score	1.7%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.17
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.19
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.26

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Lazio at FT	27.9%	27.2%	15.9%	1.72×	3.67
Lazio at HT / Lazio at FT	23.4%	21.8%	22.0%	0.99×	4.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.9%	16.7%	16.1%	1.04×	5.98
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	11.2%	12.6%	19.1%	0.66×	7.92
Draw at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	7.2%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.62
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.66
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Lazio at FT	4.5%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.60
Lazio at HT / Draw at FT	2.5%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.67
Lazio at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	0.6%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score last	60.2%	62.0%	48.2%	1.29×	1.61
Parma Calcio 1913 to score last	30.5%	32.5%	44.0%	0.74×	3.08
No goal scored	9.4%	7.5%	7.9%	0.95×	13.30

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.6%	92.6%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Lazio to lead by 1 at any time	67.1%	69.4%	55.3%	1.25×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.6%	39.2%	43.6%	0.90×	2.55
Lazio to lead by 2 at any time	34.8%	29.9%	23.9%	1.25×	3.34
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 1 at any time	34.0%	29.9%	50.5%	0.59×	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.1%	14.9%	15.1%	0.99×	6.70
Lazio to lead by 3 at any time	14.3%	10.5%	8.8%	1.20×	9.53
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 2 at any time	8.9%	6.7%	20.2%	0.33×	14.84
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 3 at any time	1.9%	1.6%	6.5%	0.25×	62.86

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio most corners	61.4%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Parma Calcio 1913 most corners	28.1%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.3%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.5%	83.4%	80.8%	1.03×	1.20
1-3 goals	69.2%	68.8%	67.5%	1.02×	1.45
2-6 goals	67.4%	68.8%	72.1%	0.95×	1.45
2-5 goals	65.1%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.3%	59.1%	61.7%	0.96×	1.69
1-2 goals	48.4%	48.5%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	41.1%	43.6%	47.2%	0.92×	2.30
3-5 goals	38.8%	39.2%	45.2%	0.87×	2.55
3-4 goals	33.0%	35.2%	36.8%	0.96×	2.84
4-6 goals	20.4%	24.5%	23.8%	1.03×	4.09
4-5 goals	18.1%	18.8%	21.8%	0.87×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.1%	8.9%	10.6%	0.84×	11.26
7+ goals	1.1%	2.6%	1.0%	2.65×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio never behind	56.7%	62.4%	49.5%	1.26×	1.60
Parma Calcio 1913 never behind	23.6%	24.7%	44.7%	0.55×	4.05

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	59.9%	57.8%	56.6%	1.02×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	40.1%	42.2%	43.4%	0.97×	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.6%	95.4%	97.0%	0.98×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.8%	92.3%	88.6%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	78.5%	77.3%	75.4%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	68.5%	66.3%	73.0%	0.91×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	57.8%	58.6%	51.9%	1.13×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	42.2%	41.4%	48.1%	0.86×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	31.5%	33.7%	27.0%	1.25×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	21.5%	22.7%	24.6%	0.92×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	7.9%	0.98×	12.93
Over 4.5 goals	9.2%	7.7%	11.4%	0.68×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	3.4%	4.6%	3.0%	1.52×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.4%	97.2%	96.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.5%	86.7%	86.8%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	72.9%	72.4%	67.8%	1.07×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	57.2%	55.8%	64.0%	0.87×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	42.8%	44.2%	36.0%	1.23×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.1%	27.6%	32.2%	0.86×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.5%	13.3%	13.2%	1.01×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.6%	2.8%	3.3%	0.86×	35.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.8%	1.0%	2.86×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.1%	96.0%	91.2%	1.05×	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	80.4%	85.7%	70.1%	1.22×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	55.6%	63.5%	66.2%	0.96×	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	44.4%	36.5%	33.8%	1.08×	2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half	19.6%	14.3%	29.9%	0.48×	6.99
Over 2.5 in 1st half	4.9%	4.0%	8.8%	0.46×	24.90

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	79.4%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.9%	79.4%	78.6%	1.01×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.9%	53.2%	57.0%	0.93×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.1%	46.8%	43.0%	1.09×	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.1%	20.6%	21.4%	0.96×	4.86
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	20.6%	17.5%	1.17×	4.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to score in both halves	89.2%	85.5%	78.4%	1.09×	1.17
Lazio not to score in both halves	75.9%	78.4%	75.8%	1.03×	1.28
Lazio to score in both halves	24.1%	21.6%	24.2%	0.90×	4.62
Parma Calcio 1913 to score in both halves	10.8%	14.5%	21.6%	0.67×	6.90

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	43.5%	46.6%	49.2%	0.95×	2.15
Only Lazio scores	35.7%	39.9%	22.6%	1.76×	2.51
Only Parma Calcio 1913 scores	11.4%	11.0%	20.6%	0.54×	9.07
Neither team scores	9.4%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	24.9%	25.0%	0.99×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	22.2%	22.6%	19.2%	1.17×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	20.7%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	12.3%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	9.4%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.4%	4.5%	3.0%	1.49×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	44.4%	39.7%	33.8%	1.18×	2.52
1 goal in 1st half	36.1%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	14.6%	10.8%	21.3%	0.51×	9.26
3+ goals in 1st half	4.9%	4.0%	8.8%	0.46×	24.90

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.1%	45.1%	43.0%	1.05×	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	32.8%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	21.1%	22.7%	21.4%	1.06×	4.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to win both halves	97.0%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Lazio not to win both halves	85.8%	87.8%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
Lazio to win both halves	14.2%	12.2%	10.1%	1.21×	8.21
Parma Calcio 1913 to win both halves	3.0%	2.8%	8.9%	0.32×	35.54

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to win neither half	67.6%	67.8%	51.6%	1.31×	1.48
Lazio to win either half	65.9%	67.7%	53.2%	1.27×	1.48
Lazio to win neither half	34.1%	32.3%	46.8%	0.69×	3.10
Parma Calcio 1913 to win either half	32.4%	32.2%	48.4%	0.67×	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to win to nil	88.6%	88.1%	79.4%	1.11×	1.14
Lazio not to win to nil	64.3%	66.6%	77.4%	0.86×	1.50
Lazio to win to nil	35.7%	33.4%	22.6%	1.48×	3.00
Parma Calcio 1913 to win to nil	11.4%	11.9%	20.6%	0.58×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio by 1	26.1%	27.9%	22.6%	1.23×	3.59
Draw	25.3%	27.9%	26.4%	1.05×	3.59
Lazio by 2	17.2%	17.0%	10.0%	1.71×	5.87
Parma Calcio 1913 by 1	13.2%	11.8%	19.4%	0.61×	8.51
Lazio by 3+	12.5%	11.8%	7.7%	1.53×	8.51
Parma Calcio 1913 by 2	4.4%	2.7%	8.7%	0.31×	36.77
Parma Calcio 1913 by 3+	1.3%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.86