Lazio v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 13
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 12
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.24
Goals − xG
-0.67 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
34.5%
Draw
29.5%
Roma win
35.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 13 from 14.4 expected and conceded 12 from 12.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWDWLLWWWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.24–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.46–1.28 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 0.67 xGRoma 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16' |
 Lazio |
Pedro | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Reda Belahyane |
| 27' |
 Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Angelino |
| 28' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 29' |
Lazio |
Alessio Romagnoli | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro |
| 37' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 40' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 45' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Roma |
Devyne Rensch | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 47' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Angelino |
| 48' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 53' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 60' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 63' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro |
| 69' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Gila |
| 81' |
Roma |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luca Pellegrini |
| 89' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niccolò Pisilli |
| 93' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 96' |
Roma |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Niccolò Pisilli |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devyne Rensch MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Angelino ML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.39 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano FW | 77 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Evan Ferguson FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Neil El Aynaoui Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Matteo Guendouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pedro FWR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Reda Belahyane Sub | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Nicolo Rovella MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Danilo Cataldi Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| Luca Pellegrini Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Valentín Castellanos Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru MC | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |